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FIFA Ballon d'Or 2014 (Neuer vs Ronaldo & Messi)

Discussions about football played outside Europe, or international competitions.
 

Do you think Neuer stands a chance?

Yes
25
52%
No
23
48%
 
Total votes : 48

Re: Can Neuer win the Ballon d'Or ?

Postby sws » Mon Dec 29, 2014 11:31 am

I would laugh so hard if Messi ends up winning.
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Re: Can Neuer win the Ballon d'Or ?

Postby RedQueen » Mon Dec 29, 2014 11:34 am

I completely forgot Pizarro and Benatia.

MUTU wrote:Who are they kidding? In my country when I tell people I support Bayern and Germany, they (jokingly) declare/ask if I'm a Nazi. Whenever I piss off Man Utd fans on Twitter (which happened a few times last year :mrgreen: ), the most popular word in response is 'cunt', closely followed by 'Nazi' and 'World Wars'. And then there are the older coaches who were born shortly after WWII and who's parents and peers have painted a very dark picture of Germany. Yes, there is political bias against Germany, I'm sure, and Merkel did her best to make things worse lately.


BBC poll: Germany most popular country in the world | BBC [source]


That was 2013. 2014: Still the most popular.
http://downloads.bbc.co.uk/mediacentre/ ... g-poll.pdf

Twitter is full of trolls. As for Merkel, I assure you Finland, the Netherlands and Austria are of an entirely different opinion than Spain, Portugal and Greece.

Asia? Didn't the Bayern marketing guy say that Neuer was a near superhero in China, Japan and Korea?
Last edited by RedQueen on Mon Dec 29, 2014 11:37 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Can Neuer win the Ballon d'Or ?

Postby MUTU » Mon Dec 29, 2014 11:35 am

Slava raf wrote:Bookmekers koef in the last Year-13.10.13 http://www.sports.ru/football/154334857.html
In the beginig Ribery was cleary favorite with 1.9 Messi was with 2.5 and Ronaldo with 7
So we see that was mistake.
In that year we have Neuer with 7)) Maybe similar situation

You're quoting bookmaker odds from 13th October 2013
But it's not 13th October 2014 today. You should compare bookmaker odds with 29th December 2014. Here's what they said exactly a year ago to the day:

MUTU wrote:Let's not call the grapes sour now... we would have liked this trophy for Ribery, but at this point it's a lost cause.
Bookmakers hardly give him a chance at all. In fact, they are predicting he won't even get 2nd place, but 3rd.


So on 29th December 2013, the bookmakers were right.

On 29th December 2014, they are probably right again. I'm sure they analyzed this more than us seeing as to how their money is involved.
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Re: Can Neuer win the Ballon d'Or ?

Postby sws » Mon Dec 29, 2014 11:43 am

MUTU wrote:
Slava raf wrote:Bookmekers koef in the last Year-13.10.13 http://www.sports.ru/football/154334857.html
In the beginig Ribery was cleary favorite with 1.9 Messi was with 2.5 and Ronaldo with 7
So we see that was mistake.
In that year we have Neuer with 7)) Maybe similar situation

You're quoting bookmaker odds from 13th October 2013
But it's not 13th October 2014 today. You should compare bookmaker odds with 29th December 2014. Here's what they said exactly a year ago to the day:

MUTU wrote:Let's not call the grapes sour now... we would have liked this trophy for Ribery, but at this point it's a lost cause.
Bookmakers hardly give him a chance at all. In fact, they are predicting he won't even get 2nd place, but 3rd.


So on 29th December 2013, the bookmakers were right.

On 29th December 2014, they are probably right again. I'm sure they analyzed this more than us seeing as to how their money is involved.


That's kind of a small sample size though, obviously. I can't say that they're wrong ofc but just because they were right last year doesn't mean much in regards to this year.
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Re: Can Neuer win the Ballon d'Or ?

Postby Slava raf » Mon Dec 29, 2014 11:47 am

MUTU wrote:
Slava raf wrote:Bookmekers koef in the last Year-13.10.13 http://www.sports.ru/football/154334857.html
In the beginig Ribery was cleary favorite with 1.9 Messi was with 2.5 and Ronaldo with 7
So we see that was mistake.
In that year we have Neuer with 7)) Maybe similar situation

You're quoting bookmaker odds from 13th October 2013
But it's not 13th October 2014 today. You should compare bookmaker odds with 29th December 2014. Here's what they said exactly a year ago to the day:

MUTU wrote:Let's not call the grapes sour now... we would have liked this trophy for Ribery, but at this point it's a lost cause.
Bookmakers hardly give him a chance at all. In fact, they are predicting he won't even get 2nd place, but 3rd.


So on 29th December 2013, the bookmakers were right.

On 29th December 2014, they are probably right again. I'm sure they analyzed this more than us seeing as to how their money is involved.


You forgot one detail! In last year Blatter prolonger voting from 22.november untill 29.10 and after that ALL knowed that winner will be Ronaldo.Awter Sweeden- Portugal game Blatter changed voting date
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Re: Can Neuer win the Ballon d'Or ?

Postby prasun77 » Mon Dec 29, 2014 11:50 am

RedQueen wrote:I completely forgot Pizarro and Benatia.

MUTU wrote:Who are they kidding? In my country when I tell people I support Bayern and Germany, they (jokingly) declare/ask if I'm a Nazi. Whenever I piss off Man Utd fans on Twitter (which happened a few times last year :mrgreen: ), the most popular word in response is 'cunt', closely followed by 'Nazi' and 'World Wars'. And then there are the older coaches who were born shortly after WWII and who's parents and peers have painted a very dark picture of Germany. Yes, there is political bias against Germany, I'm sure, and Merkel did her best to make things worse lately.


BBC poll: Germany most popular country in the world | BBC [source]


That was 2013. 2014: Still the most popular.
http://downloads.bbc.co.uk/mediacentre/ ... g-poll.pdf

Twitter is full of trolls. As for Merkel, I assure you Finland, the Netherlands and Austria are of an entirely different opinion than Spain, Portugal and Greece.

Asia? Didn't the Bayern marketing guy say that Neuer was a near superhero in China, Japan and Korea?

here in south asia even those who don't know any football but if they can name one goalkeeper it would be neuer..everyone's favourite keeper is neuer here....and yes got info that the butthurt Dunga voted for Ronaldo..
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Re: Can Neuer win the Ballon d'Or ?

Postby MUTU » Mon Dec 29, 2014 11:54 am

Slava raf wrote:
MUTU wrote:
Slava raf wrote:Bookmekers koef in the last Year-13.10.13 http://www.sports.ru/football/154334857.html
In the beginig Ribery was cleary favorite with 1.9 Messi was with 2.5 and Ronaldo with 7
So we see that was mistake.
In that year we have Neuer with 7)) Maybe similar situation

You're quoting bookmaker odds from 13th October 2013
But it's not 13th October 2014 today. You should compare bookmaker odds with 29th December 2014. Here's what they said exactly a year ago to the day:

MUTU wrote:Let's not call the grapes sour now... we would have liked this trophy for Ribery, but at this point it's a lost cause.
Bookmakers hardly give him a chance at all. In fact, they are predicting he won't even get 2nd place, but 3rd.


So on 29th December 2013, the bookmakers were right.

On 29th December 2014, they are probably right again. I'm sure they analyzed this more than us seeing as to how their money is involved.


You forgot one detail! In last year Blatter prolonger voting from 22.november untill 29.10 and after that ALL knowed that winner will be Ronaldo.Awter Sweeden- Portugal game Blatter changed voting date

Yes. The bookmakers were right twice last year. Before voting was extended they were right about Ribery winning, after the voting was extended the bookmakers predicted: 1 Ronaldo 2 Messi 3 Ribery, and that's exactly how it finished.

This year they are sure Ronaldo will win. Whoever still thinks Neuer will win should put his money where his mouth is: Betfred and SkyBet have odds of 7.0 for a Neuer win.
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Re: Can Neuer win the Ballon d'Or ?

Postby RedQueen » Mon Dec 29, 2014 11:59 am

Not sure why you're getting so defensive here... I said before that I don't think he'll win but I do think he has a decent outsider's chance. He's no favorite but it's not impossible for him to win either.

If bookmakers were always right there wouldn't be much point in betting.

And no, I won't "put my money where my mouth is". Haven't engaged in betting in my entire life and I won't start now either.
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Re: Can Neuer win the Ballon d'Or ?

Postby MUTU » Mon Dec 29, 2014 12:08 pm

RedQueen wrote:Not sure why you're getting so defensive here

I'm not defensive :) Sorry if you got that idea, maybe I should use more emoticons. I was laughing whilst writing :)

My point is not that bookmakers are always right, but they certainly are more likely than us to know what's happening and they have bigger lists of who voted for who already, done some mathematical analysis and all that etc.

I'm just worried about people giving false hopes to some users here who still think Neuer has a chance, whereas in fact that chance is very small, maybe 15%.
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Re: Can Neuer win the Ballon d'Or ?

Postby RedQueen » Mon Dec 29, 2014 12:17 pm

MUTU wrote:
RedQueen wrote:Not sure why you're getting so defensive here

I'm not defensive :) Sorry if you got that idea, maybe I should use more emoticons. I was laughing whilst writing :)

Alright then :)

My point is not that bookmakers are always right, but they certainly are more likely than us to know what's happening and they have bigger lists of who voted for who already, done some mathematical analysis and all that etc.

I think it's much more difficult to tell this year than last year, because Neuer is much more of a dark horse than Ribery was, because of the position he plays, because of the World Cup, because of the hype generated during the past few months.

Have you heard of these guys who won betting against 1:175 that Suarez bites someone in the Italy game?

I'm just worried about people giving false hopes to some users here who still think Neuer has a chance, whereas in fact that chance is very small, maybe 15%.

At this point I think he has a better chance than Messi. Wouldn't be surprised at all if Messi came in 3rd.
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Re: Can Neuer win the Ballon d'Or ?

Postby Slava raf » Mon Dec 29, 2014 12:18 pm

Maybe some of users accurate will be Nazi, because from their party isn't enough tolerance)))
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Re: Can Neuer win the Ballon d'Or ?

Postby MUTU » Mon Dec 29, 2014 12:19 pm

RedQueen wrote:At this point I think he has a better chance than Messi. Wouldn't be surprised at all if Messi came in 3rd.

This is what the bookmakers think too.

1 Ronaldo 2 Neuer 3 Messi
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Re: Can Neuer win the Ballon d'Or ?

Postby sws » Mon Dec 29, 2014 12:26 pm

Can we stop quoting the bookmarkers :roll: :roll:
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Re: Can Neuer win the Ballon d'Or ?

Postby Slava raf » Mon Dec 29, 2014 12:29 pm

Perhaps bookmekers analyse that, but they can not to know all thinks. because now we have informations wall..
I think you can not found inf in england google about voting in countries like Tadzikistan, Uzbekistan, Kazahstan, Armenia,Makedonia an other and that is part of Asia because Russia location between Europe and Asia
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Re: Can Neuer win the Ballon d'Or ?

Postby MillaMjau » Mon Dec 29, 2014 12:50 pm

MUTU wrote:As for Neuer... who buys goalkeeper jerseys anyway?


I have eight. :D And in fact, this season's GK kit has apparently sold well because there are only two sizes left on the fan-shop.
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