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Hakim Ziyech [حكيم زياش]‎

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Re: Hakim Ziyech [حكيم زياش]‎

Postby Firefox1234 » Fri Aug 16, 2019 8:06 pm

Temporary lock since thread going off topic
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Re: Hakim Ziyech [حكيم زياش]‎

Postby Firefox1234 » Wed Feb 12, 2020 6:06 pm

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Re: Hakim Ziyech [حكيم زياش]‎

Postby aterford » Wed Feb 12, 2020 6:11 pm

Ziyech isn't perfect but I have a hard time seeing a scenario in which a 30m fee plus wages for the next 3, 4, 5 years for Ziyech is a worse option than paying ~35m for Coutinho on a one year loan....
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Hakim Ziyech [حكيم زياش]‎

Postby Firefox1234 » Wed Feb 12, 2020 9:30 pm

aterford wrote:Ziyech isn't perfect but I have a hard time seeing a scenario in which a 30m fee plus wages for the next 3, 4, 5 years for Ziyech is a worse option than paying ~35m for Coutinho on a one year loan....

Coutinho maybe more expensive to hold onto but his deal is a one year loan deal, so zero long term commitment. While as you said Ziyech would be a deal for 3/4 years on wages as well as a roster spot. It’s easy to start getting bogged down by dead wood with your logic, just look at Man U. It’s hard to move players especially at big clubs...
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Re: Hakim Ziyech [حكيم زياش]‎

Postby aterford » Wed Feb 12, 2020 9:34 pm

Firefox1234 wrote:
aterford wrote:Ziyech isn't perfect but I have a hard time seeing a scenario in which a 30m fee plus wages for the next 3, 4, 5 years for Ziyech is a worse option than paying ~35m for Coutinho on a one year loan....

Coutinho maybe more expensive to hold onto but his deal is a one year loan deal, so zero long term commitment. While as you said Ziyech would be a deal for 3/4 years on wages as well as a roster spot. It’s easy to start getting bogged down by dead wood with your logic, just look at Man U. It’s hard to move players especially at big clubs...


But Coutinho's a one year deal that leaves us with zero assets (from that deal) once he leaves. Ziyech on a long-term deal does cost more overall and for a longer period, but he's an asset with value even while he's costing us money. You sign Ziyech and decide he doesn't fit, you still have the ability to sell him and recoup some or all of that cost. You pay 35m or so for Coutinho and it doesn't matter how he does, you've got nothing to show for it when he's gone and no means to get any of that cost recouped.
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Re: Hakim Ziyech [حكيم زياش]‎

Postby Firefox1234 » Wed Feb 12, 2020 10:10 pm

aterford wrote:
Firefox1234 wrote:
aterford wrote:Ziyech isn't perfect but I have a hard time seeing a scenario in which a 30m fee plus wages for the next 3, 4, 5 years for Ziyech is a worse option than paying ~35m for Coutinho on a one year loan....

Coutinho maybe more expensive to hold onto but his deal is a one year loan deal, so zero long term commitment. While as you said Ziyech would be a deal for 3/4 years on wages as well as a roster spot. It’s easy to start getting bogged down by dead wood with your logic, just look at Man U. It’s hard to move players especially at big clubs...


But Coutinho's a one year deal that leaves us with zero assets (from that deal) once he leaves. Ziyech on a long-term deal does cost more overall and for a longer period, but he's an asset with value even while he's costing us money. You sign Ziyech and decide he doesn't fit, you still have the ability to sell him and recoup some or all of that cost. You pay 35m or so for Coutinho and it doesn't matter how he does, you've got nothing to show for it when he's gone and no means to get any of that cost recouped.


I don’t think it will be easy offloading Ziyech if he proves to not pan out. Also Bayern are definitely not a club with a lot of interest of buying players to simply offload them in the future. Bayern definitely want a healthy budget but they do that through having a successful squad, not buying as selling players like assets.
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Re: Hakim Ziyech [حكيم زياش]‎

Postby aterford » Wed Feb 12, 2020 10:38 pm

It's not about buying players for the sake of offloading them - rather just that the possibility exists.
Every player *is* an asset, at the end of the day. I don't think the club buys the player for sake of selling him, but in a vacuum having a player who's able to provide a tangible return on investment is more 'valuable' than one whose ROI is effectively zero.
Coutinho's a zero-sum investment. Once the loan's over, he's gone. In all likelihood, Ziyech would cost the same as Coutinho through his first season with the club and even if he'd performed as poorly as Coutinho has we'd still have the option to sell him or keep him for another season to see if he improves (and not have to spend an extra 80, 100, 120m to do so!)
In other words: Ziyech would have to flop a LOT harder than Coutinho (for a longer period of time, too!) in order to be a 'worse' investment.
I'm not saying we *should* have bought Ziyech because we could make money off him. But rather:
1. I think that - at worst - he'd offer as much on the pitch for us as Coutinho has. IMO, he would likely been better for us
2. We would have a longer chance to "assess" the player. Let's say we sign Ziyech and he's poor in his first season. But we don't want to sell him after just one year. We want to see if he improves further before giving up. So say he sells for 35m and gets a 10m wage. That's a 45m total package, amortised to 11.25m per year over four years or 9m per year over five years. So even if he flops in year one, keeping him in year two would have only cost us between 18-22.5m by the end of the second season.

Compare this with Coutinho: He's cost us 8m in loan fee plus 25m in wages this year. His buy-price is set at 120m, but would reportedly drop down to as low as 80m. So we sign him for 80-120m on a 4/5 year contract, effective starting Summer 2020. Say that he even agrees to a wage reduction down to say 18m per year, putting him just below Lewy as one of our top earners. That's a purchase package price of 152m (80m+ 18m*4yrs) or 170m (80m+ 18*5yrs), amortised out to 34-38m/yr. Add that to the 33m he's cost for the first season (loan fee+wage) and your two-year price is roughly 67-71m - more than triple the cost of Ziyech.

And 3. Assuming we don't do the above and spend an extra ~150m+ on Coutinho deal, Ziyech still has value for us if he doesn't perform up to expectations. Like I said, we get no compensation when Coutinho leaves; even if after three years Ziyech has flopped we still have the chance to recoup at least a portion of that cost. That might end up being a net loss, but maybe not.

Either way, feels like a much smarter investment to me.
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Re: Hakim Ziyech [حكيم زياش]‎

Postby #12 » Wed Feb 12, 2020 11:43 pm

aterford wrote:It's not about buying players for the sake of offloading them - rather just that the possibility exists.
Every player *is* an asset, at the end of the day. I don't think the club buys the player for sake of selling him, but in a vacuum having a player who's able to provide a tangible return on investment is more 'valuable' than one whose ROI is effectively zero.
Coutinho's a zero-sum investment. Once the loan's over, he's gone. In all likelihood, Ziyech would cost the same as Coutinho through his first season with the club and even if he'd performed as poorly as Coutinho has we'd still have the option to sell him or keep him for another season to see if he improves (and not have to spend an extra 80, 100, 120m to do so!)
In other words: Ziyech would have to flop a LOT harder than Coutinho (for a longer period of time, too!) in order to be a 'worse' investment.
I'm not saying we *should* have bought Ziyech because we could make money off him. But rather:
1. I think that - at worst - he'd offer as much on the pitch for us as Coutinho has. IMO, he would likely been better for us
2. We would have a longer chance to "assess" the player. Let's say we sign Ziyech and he's poor in his first season. But we don't want to sell him after just one year. We want to see if he improves further before giving up. So say he sells for 35m and gets a 10m wage. That's a 45m total package, amortised to 11.25m per year over four years or 9m per year over five years. So even if he flops in year one, keeping him in year two would have only cost us between 18-22.5m by the end of the second season.

Compare this with Coutinho: He's cost us 8m in loan fee plus 25m in wages this year. His buy-price is set at 120m, but would reportedly drop down to as low as 80m. So we sign him for 80-120m on a 4/5 year contract, effective starting Summer 2020. Say that he even agrees to a wage reduction down to say 18m per year, putting him just below Lewy as one of our top earners. That's a purchase package price of 152m (80m+ 18m*4yrs) or 170m (80m+ 18*5yrs), amortised out to 34-38m/yr. Add that to the 33m he's cost for the first season (loan fee+wage) and your two-year price is roughly 67-71m - more than triple the cost of Ziyech.

And 3. Assuming we don't do the above and spend an extra ~150m+ on Coutinho deal, Ziyech still has value for us if he doesn't perform up to expectations. Like I said, we get no compensation when Coutinho leaves; even if after three years Ziyech has flopped we still have the chance to recoup at least a portion of that cost. That might end up being a net loss, but maybe not.

Either way, feels like a much smarter investment to me.


Of course it is...

Also there’s no way anyone could flop harder than Coutinho, let alone "a lot"...
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Re: Hakim Ziyech [حكيم زياش]‎

Postby Rauntšik » Wed Feb 12, 2020 11:49 pm

Off to Chelsea

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