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2019/20 Generic Transfer Thread

Rumours and news about the transfer market. Who are FC Bayern attempting to sign? Who's going to leave? Find it all here.
 

How many players should Bayern sign if we assume that Cou, Boa, Javi and Odriozola are leaving?

One.
0
No votes
Two.
0
No votes
Three.
0
No votes
Four.
2
50%
Five.
2
50%
More than five.
0
No votes
 
Total votes : 4

Re: 2019/20 Generic Transfer Thread

Postby MUTU » Wed Feb 26, 2020 8:32 pm

ramsej84 wrote:We can kiss the domestic title goodbye already.

My God... when will you grow some balls? :|
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Re: 2019/20 Generic Transfer Thread

Postby bastos80 » Wed Feb 26, 2020 8:54 pm

MUTU wrote:
ramsej84 wrote:We can kiss the domestic title goodbye already.

My God... when will you grow some balls? :|


ramsej, everytime a minor inconvenience happens:
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Re: 2019/20 Generic Transfer Thread

Postby aterford » Wed Feb 26, 2020 10:20 pm

MUTU wrote:
Dumbledore7 wrote:Lol world class finish from aterford :lol:

Yes, but...

aterford wrote:So....you're one of 7 people in your area who are eligible to win the lottery? If so, I need to move to wherever you're living!

This conclusion doesn't hold. In a lottery, someone has to win. Chances are that nobody will win the treble this season.


Be that as it may, if my country held a 200m+ lottery (UCL+League+Cup prize money) and there were only 7 persons who could possibly win, I'd feel pretty good about my odds even if there wasn't a guaranteed winner!
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Re: 2019/20 Generic Transfer Thread

Postby #12 » Thu Feb 27, 2020 1:03 am

aterford wrote:
#12 wrote:
YlonenXabi wrote:We tend to criticize our board because of how cheap they are, which is true...
Lewandowski 0M
Gnabry 12M
Kimmich 15M
Davies 15M
Coman 30M
Thiago 25M
...
Even our coach has an average salary. And we are challenging for the treble.


We‘re challenging for the treble as much as I am for the lottery...


16 clubs are left in the UCL. The following could still possibly 'challenge for the treble,' arranged roughly by probabilities:

1. FC Bayern - 3:0 lead in R16 w/ 3 away goals; first in league; in Pokal quarterfinals. Still can win treble. 99% chance to advance to quarterfinals, 73% to win Bundesliga.

2. Liverpool - Down 1:0 after first match in UCL R16. First in league and still alive in FA Cup. Still can win treble. 54% chance to make quarterfinals, 99%+ to win PL

3. PSG - Down 2:1 to Dortmund in R16. First in Ligue 1 and alive in cup. Still can win treble. 45% chance to make quarterfinal, 99%+ to win Ligue 1

4. Juve - First match in R16 vs Lyon yet to play. First in Serie A and alive in Coppa. Still can win treble. 73% to advance to quarterfinal, 58% to win Serie A.

5. Manchester City - first match in R16 today vs R. Madrid. Still alive in FA cup, 22 points behind Liverpool in EPL. Still could possibly win treble in the event that Liverpool has perhaps the biggest collapse of all-time. 66% chance to advance to quarterfinals, less than 1% chance to win PL.

6. Lyon - First match in R16 yet to play. Still in cup, 7th in Ligue 1. Still could conceivably win treble, I guess. 27% to make quarterfinals, less than 1% to win Ligue 1.

7. Napoli - 1:0 lead on Liverpool in R16. Still in Coppa. 24 points out of first place in league. 19% to make quarterfinals, less than 1% to win Serie A.

8. Chelsea - Mathematically cannot catch Liverpool to win League AFAIK. Cannot win treble.
9. Spurs - Like Chelsea, mathematically eliminated. Cannot win treble.
10. Atletico - Eliminated from Copa del Rey. Cannot win treble.
11. Atalanta - Eliminated from Coppa. Cannot win treble.
12. Dortmund - Eliminated from Pokal. Cannot win treble.
13. Real Madrid - Eliminated from Copa del Rey. Cannot win treble.
14. RB Leipzig - Eliminated from DFB Pokal. Cannot win treble.
15. Barcelona - Eliminated from Copa del Rey. Cannot win treble.
16. Valencia - Eliminated from Copa del Rey. Cannot win treble.

So....you're one of 7 people in your area who are eligible to win the lottery? If so, I need to move to wherever you're living!


I know you long enough to say this is not polemics... But it’s BS nonetheless...

Because the treble is not some jackpot that is given out every year and that has several teams fighting for it... It can only be achieved by winning several competitions... Now I know the lottery is sometimes not won either... But the difference is, they keep drawing until someone wins the jackpot... And that’s where my chances improve
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Re: 2019/20 Generic Transfer Thread

Postby #12 » Thu Feb 27, 2020 1:04 am

MUTU wrote:
Dumbledore7 wrote:Lol world class finish from aterford :lol:

Yes, but...

aterford wrote:So....you're one of 7 people in your area who are eligible to win the lottery? If so, I need to move to wherever you're living!

This conclusion doesn't hold. In a lottery, someone has to win. Chances are that nobody will win the treble this season.


Well at least SOMEONE got it
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Re: 2019/20 Generic Transfer Thread

Postby #12 » Thu Feb 27, 2020 1:06 am

aterford wrote:
MUTU wrote:
Dumbledore7 wrote:Lol world class finish from aterford :lol:

Yes, but...

aterford wrote:So....you're one of 7 people in your area who are eligible to win the lottery? If so, I need to move to wherever you're living!

This conclusion doesn't hold. In a lottery, someone has to win. Chances are that nobody will win the treble this season.


Be that as it may, if my country held a 200m+ lottery (UCL+League+Cup prize money) and there were only 7 persons who could possibly win, I'd feel pretty good about my odds even if there wasn't a guaranteed winner!


You can keep feeling good... It won’t last...

And with the fixtures we still have to play I fancy ramseij's conclusion MUCH more likely...
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Re: 2019/20 Generic Transfer Thread

Postby aterford » Thu Feb 27, 2020 4:41 am

Well, perhaps. That's largely speculative, though. We can only take each game as they come.
As it stands, the fact of the matter is that we are one of seven clubs who could possibly win the treble this season, which is not a bad position to be in. And one could certainly argue that we're better positioned than the other six at the moment.

We have better odds than every other team to advance further in the UCL. We have better odds than at least four of them to win a domestic league title; the only two with better league odds than us are currently in a worse position in the UCL.

Nerd out with me for a minute.
At present the 'typical' odds for winning the Powerball jackpot in the US is roughly 1 in 300,000,000.
Betting lines put us at 20% to win the UCL, 70% to win the Bundesliga, and 60% to win the Pokal.
And if we multiply those three percentages - as they're all independent events (.20*.70*.60) you get roughly...8%, which works out to about 1 in.......twelve.

Of course that's likely wildly optimistic but those are the betting lines at the moment. I think I'd at least wager we've a better shot at winning the treble of anyone on this site does winning the jackpot lottery, hahaha.
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Re: 2019/20 Generic Transfer Thread

Postby MUTU » Thu Feb 27, 2020 7:48 am

#12 wrote:
MUTU wrote:
Dumbledore7 wrote:Lol world class finish from aterford :lol:

Yes, but...

aterford wrote:So....you're one of 7 people in your area who are eligible to win the lottery? If so, I need to move to wherever you're living!

This conclusion doesn't hold. In a lottery, someone has to win. Chances are that nobody will win the treble this season.


Well at least SOMEONE got it

Maybe YOU should get it. Despite aterford's mistake, there's still no decent lottery around where the chances of winning are as big as Bayern winning the treble this season. Stop trying to paint everything black.

Let's say we had 1/18 chance of winning the Bundesliga this season (despite that our chances are much higher), a 1/16 chance of winning the CL given we're in the last 16 and a 1/8th chance of winning the DFB Pokal...
even with these ultra pessimistic predictions... that amounts to a 1 in 2500 chance of winning the treble.
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Re: 2019/20 Generic Transfer Thread

Postby #12 » Thu Feb 27, 2020 1:41 pm

aterford wrote:Well, perhaps. That's largely speculative, though. We can only take each game as they come.
As it stands, the fact of the matter is that we are one of seven clubs who could possibly win the treble this season, which is not a bad position to be in. And one could certainly argue that we're better positioned than the other six at the moment.

We have better odds than every other team to advance further in the UCL. We have better odds than at least four of them to win a domestic league title; the only two with better league odds than us are currently in a worse position in the UCL.

Nerd out with me for a minute.
At present the 'typical' odds for winning the Powerball jackpot in the US is roughly 1 in 300,000,000.
Betting lines put us at 20% to win the UCL, 70% to win the Bundesliga, and 60% to win the Pokal.
And if we multiply those three percentages - as they're all independent events (.20*.70*.60) you get roughly...8%, which works out to about 1 in.......twelve.

Of course that's likely wildly optimistic but those are the betting lines at the moment. I think I'd at least wager we've a better shot at winning the treble of anyone on this site does winning the jackpot lottery, hahaha.


Don’t hate me for it, but: I'd rather win the jackpot than have Bayern win the treble though

But I would throw a HUGE Bayernforum party for our double BuLi-CL
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Re: 2019/20 Generic Transfer Thread

Postby #12 » Thu Feb 27, 2020 1:42 pm

MUTU wrote:
#12 wrote:
MUTU wrote:
Dumbledore7"]Lol world class finish from aterford :lol:

Yes, but...

[quote="aterford wrote:So....you're one of 7 people in your area who are eligible to win the lottery? If so, I need to move to wherever you're living!

This conclusion doesn't hold. In a lottery, someone has to win. Chances are that nobody will win the treble this season.


Well at least SOMEONE got it

Maybe YOU should get it. Despite aterford's mistake, there's still no decent lottery around where the chances of winning are as big as Bayern winning the treble this season. Stop trying to paint everything black.

Let's say we had 1/18 chance of winning the Bundesliga this season (despite that our chances are much higher), a 1/16 chance of winning the CL given we're in the last 16 and a 1/8th chance of winning the DFB Pokal...
even with these ultra pessimistic predictions... that amounts to a 1 in 2500 chance of winning the treble.[/quote]

... and you don’t get invited...
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Re: 2019/20 Generic Transfer Thread

Postby #12 » Thu Feb 27, 2020 1:43 pm

Seriously: think of it what you will, of course my statement was largely influenced by personal emotions/feelings and not by math...

Still think the lottery will be won while you won’t see a treble winner this year - let alone us...
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Re: 2019/20 Generic Transfer Thread

Postby MUTU » Thu Feb 27, 2020 1:58 pm

#12 wrote:
aterford wrote:Well, perhaps. That's largely speculative, though. We can only take each game as they come.
As it stands, the fact of the matter is that we are one of seven clubs who could possibly win the treble this season, which is not a bad position to be in. And one could certainly argue that we're better positioned than the other six at the moment.

We have better odds than every other team to advance further in the UCL. We have better odds than at least four of them to win a domestic league title; the only two with better league odds than us are currently in a worse position in the UCL.

Nerd out with me for a minute.
At present the 'typical' odds for winning the Powerball jackpot in the US is roughly 1 in 300,000,000.
Betting lines put us at 20% to win the UCL, 70% to win the Bundesliga, and 60% to win the Pokal.
And if we multiply those three percentages - as they're all independent events (.20*.70*.60) you get roughly...8%, which works out to about 1 in.......twelve.

Of course that's likely wildly optimistic but those are the betting lines at the moment. I think I'd at least wager we've a better shot at winning the treble of anyone on this site does winning the jackpot lottery, hahaha.


Don’t hate me for it, but: I'd rather win the jackpot than have Bayern win the treble though

But I would throw a HUGE Bayernforum party for our double BuLi-CL

You... you... you're not a real fan! :P
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Re: 2019/20 Generic Transfer Thread

Postby MUTU » Thu Feb 27, 2020 2:00 pm

#12 wrote:... and you don’t get invited...

You just hate it when I'm right, which is just about always 8)
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Re: 2019/20 Generic Transfer Thread

Postby #12 » Thu Feb 27, 2020 2:00 pm

MUTU wrote:
#12 wrote:
aterford wrote:Well, perhaps. That's largely speculative, though. We can only take each game as they come.
As it stands, the fact of the matter is that we are one of seven clubs who could possibly win the treble this season, which is not a bad position to be in. And one could certainly argue that we're better positioned than the other six at the moment.

We have better odds than every other team to advance further in the UCL. We have better odds than at least four of them to win a domestic league title; the only two with better league odds than us are currently in a worse position in the UCL.

Nerd out with me for a minute.
At present the 'typical' odds for winning the Powerball jackpot in the US is roughly 1 in 300,000,000.
Betting lines put us at 20% to win the UCL, 70% to win the Bundesliga, and 60% to win the Pokal.
And if we multiply those three percentages - as they're all independent events (.20*.70*.60) you get roughly...8%, which works out to about 1 in.......twelve.

Of course that's likely wildly optimistic but those are the betting lines at the moment. I think I'd at least wager we've a better shot at winning the treble of anyone on this site does winning the jackpot lottery, hahaha.


Don’t hate me for it, but: I'd rather win the jackpot than have Bayern win the treble though

But I would throw a HUGE Bayernforum party for our double BuLi-CL

You... you... you're not a real fan! :P


Maybe, but I‘d rather be not a real fan with 10m in my bank account
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Re: 2019/20 Generic Transfer Thread

Postby MUTU » Thu Feb 27, 2020 2:01 pm

#12 wrote:Seriously: think of it what you will, of course my statement was largely influenced by personal emotions/feelings and not by math...

Well, it would be quite sad if you had worked out the math and came out with that conclusion. :mrgreen:
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