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2019/20 Generic Transfer Thread

Rumours and news about the transfer market. Who are FC Bayern attempting to sign? Who's going to leave? Find it all here.
 

Your favourite winger signing?

Pulisic
24
30%
Bailey
14
18%
No one: renew Robbery
6
8%
No one, renew Robben
1
1%
No one, renew Ribery
1
1%
Someone else
34
43%
 
Total votes : 80

2019/20 Generic Transfer Thread

Postby Firefox1234 » Fri Nov 22, 2019 1:42 am

Rising wages, stagnant sales: signs that the European transfer fee bubble is ready to burst [source]

To be successful, a football club needs to predict where the market for both transfer fees and wages are headed over the next several years. Failure to do so results in inefficient use of resources: a team either overpays when buying an asset or fails to realize full market value when selling one. Bayern Munich’s management have always been fiscally responsible. Former club president Uli Hoeness even recently insisted that top-notch players could be acquired for less than €100 million.

Are such claims just for public consumption, or is there reason to believe that the recent, aggressive inflation in transfer fees is about to slow or reverse?

Risky as it is to predict finances in the world of football business, there are in fact reasons to believe that the sharp upswing in transfer fees seen over the past few years may be at or nearing its end, and that a levelling off or a slight decrease might occur over the next few years. Let’s have a look at some of the reasons why that might be, and then look where some of the leading indicators are pointing.

Reasons why the feast might be ending
1) Television rights increases for the English Premier League (EPL), a major inflation driver, seem to be hitting a wall. While it is not often talked about, the last television deal for domestic rights to the EPL shrank rather than grew (from $7.14 billion US to $6.33 billion US). It appears the domestic market is tapped out and, while the international market is growing, the scale and speed do not look sufficient to maintain current transfer fee inflation. International rights are not growing apace. A reported deal for broadcast rights with Facebook has fallen apart, and the projected revenue for the three-year deal for Cambodia, Thailand, and Vietnam would not have been sufficient to make a real impact in any event.

2) Wages are growing faster than revenues, and revenue-to-wage ratios are becoming less healthy. Wage inflation in the EPL looks now to be double revenue growth (15% v. 6%). Experts suggest that when it comes to a professional football team, the optimal level of wages to revenue is 60%, with 40% being too conservative (under-invested) and 90% or higher being unsustainable. The EPL average has now crept over 60% and some teams are well over that. While there are some complexities behind the number (at one point in a previous TV deal cycle, the EPL hit a 70% average and some teams’ revenues have been temporarily inflated by real estate deals), it is not moving in a healthy direction. Bayern Munich Chairman Karl-Heinz Rummenigge has clearly stated that he is more concerned about wage inflation than transfer fees. For comparison, La Liga’s ratio tends to hover around 64%, Serie A 55%, Bundesliga 48%, and Ligue 1 36%.

3) Extreme transfer fee inflation has shrunk the market for elite players to an impractically small group. Only a very small group of teams can afford to spend €60 million or more for a player. That means if you have an asset in that category, the time it takes to find a willing buyer can stretch well beyond the functional. It works just like the housing market: if you are selling a reasonably priced starter home, the property will usually sell quite quickly. If you are selling a very high-priced property, the number of possible buyers is orders of magnitude smaller, so you will usually have to wait far longer (sometimes years) to find a buyer. The number of players highly valuated by their teams seems to have outstripped the number of teams who can afford them, slowing the market for elite players. The number of high-end players who wanted to move, or whom their team wanted to sell, but who were not sold (Bale, Neymar, Dybala, and many more) suggests that the number of viable buyers is not large enough to sustain the market.

4) The pre-FFP (financial fair play) pump priming has run its course. Several well-know teams spent a great deal on player acquisitions and salaries just before FFP came into effect to “prime the pump.” The assets that were purchased during that spending spree have now depreciated in value, and the clubs can no longer simply funnel money in to replace the loss due to FFP.

Leading indicators – where are they pointing?
Since the English Championship is the gateway to the EPL, economic developments there can be considered leading indicators for financial developments at the top level. For example, a few years ago a surge of billionaire buyers snapped up Championship clubs to take a chance on moving up to the EPL because the potential profits were so great. What significant economic developments do we see in the Championship now that might tell us something about the direction of the EPL?

1) Over the last couple of years, about half of the teams in the Championship have been for sale in some way and have not sold. Investors are no longer seeing the value in these teams.

2) Championship wage-to-revenue ratios now average a suicidal 115%. That is in no way sustainable.

3) Four teams were forced to sell their stadiums in order to meet their league-mandated financial sustainability requirements. Derby, Aston Villa, Reading, and Sheffield Wednesday all sold their parks to their owners to offset significant losses. There are three serious problems with this. The first is that you can only do it once, yet the expenses continue. The second is that the team then loses the non-football income the stadium generates. The third is that the stadium prices may have been artificially inflated. In the case of Derby, the stadium had been valued at $40 million, but the non-arms-length price was $80 million. The league is investigating the transactions with no ruling yet.

The banks are turning up their noses
One final indicator that the current level of transfer fees is likely not sustainable is the fact that regular banks are no longer willing to finance the acquisition of very expensive players. A private equity company known as 23 Capital provided the financing for the purchase of Antoine Griezmann for Barcelona and João Felix for Athlético Madrid. Why did Barca have to go to a non-institutional vendor to acquire this player? Simple: the banks had already lent them some €600 million to refurbish their stadium and were not willing to extend them more significant credit.

While front page reporting focuses on transfer fees north of €100 million and large media deals, a closer look at balance sheets, financing trends, and player wages suggests that the near future may bring a levelling off of transfer inflation and perhaps even a modest retreat. Whatever happens it appears that FC Bayern are well positioned to take advantage of upcoming market changes with a significant cash reserve on hand and minimal to limit what they can pay in fees and wages.
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Re: 2019/20 Generic Transfer Thread

Postby Firefox1234 » Sat Dec 07, 2019 2:43 am

Real Madrid, Barcelona, PSG, Juventus and Bayern's best and worst transfers since 2009 [source]

BAYERN MUNICH'S BEST
5. Jerome Boateng, 2011-
Bought for: €13.5m from Man City
Appearances: 297; Goals: 8

You have to feel sorry for the multiple trophy winning defender that all people remember is when Lionel Messi made him fall over with a swivel of the hips in the Champions League. But Boateng has been a class act at Bayern and has given his all even when falling out of favour in recent seasons.

4. Serge Gnabry, 2017-
Bought for: €8m from Werder Bremen
Appearances: 60; Goals: 22

It seemed unlikely that the winger would make the grade at Bayern, having failed to do so at Arsenal, but his year at Werder and spell on loan at Hoffenheim convinced the German giants to give him a go and he's rewarded them. Always full of potential, the 24-year-old is starting to show his true worth and his four-goal performance against Tottenham in the 2019-20 Champions League group stage is proof of what he can do.

3. Arjen Robben, 2009-2019
Bought for: €25m from Real Madrid
Sold for: Retired
Appearances: 309; Goals: 144

Football hasn't seemed the same since there has been no Dutch winger cutting in from the right to curl a left-footed shot into the corner of the net. Robben made himself a legend at Bayern, alongside Franck Ribery who signed in 2007, and goes down as one of the great wingers to have played the game.

2. Manuel Neuer, 2011
Bought for: €30m from Schalke
Appearances: 358

An incredible deal for Bayern to land the Germany No. 1 for such a small fee. Neuer redefined the art of his chosen position, playing as a sweeper-keeper and helping himself to seven titles, a Champions League and World Cup. One of the greatest goalkeepers ever and a committed club servant.

1. Robert Lewandowski, 2014-
Bought for: Free, from Dortmund
Appearances: 263; Goals: 218

A goal-scoring machine who has netted almost 400 in nearly 600 games during his career, Lewandowski joined Bayern on a free transfer. A FREE TRANSFER! Arguably the best Bosman move of all time as the Poland striker has rewarded the club with buckets of goals and silverware aplenty. Just an incredible player and Bayern have done well to keep him out of the clutches of Europe's other top clubs.

BAYERN MUNICH'S WORST
5. Luiz Gustavo, 2011-2013
Bought for: €17m from Hoffenheim
Sold for: €16m to Wolfsburg
Appearances: 100; Goals: 6

If Pep Guardiola doesn't think you're worth playing, then you have issues. Thiago Alcantara and Mario Gotze's arrivals pushed the Brazilian down the pecking order, and he moved on in search of regular football after failing to impress during two-and-a-half years at the club.

4. Douglas Costa, 2015-18
Bought for: €30m from Shakhtar Donetsk
Sold for: €40m to Juventus
Appearances: 77; Goals: 14

The Brazilian winger would probably have been a success if it wasn't for the fact that Ribery and Robben occupied the wide positions at Bayern. Badly timed injuries didn't help but then neither did his public criticism of boss Carlo Ancelotti for not playing him. A lot of money to spend on a player who did very little, but at least they made a profit.

3. Sandro Wagner, 2017-2019
Bought for: €13m from Hoffenheim
Sold for: €5m to TJ Teda
Appearances: 30; Goals: 10

Having begun his career at Bayern before leaving for a journeyman existence, it made some sense that Sandro would want to come back to act as backup to Lewandowski. But he barely played and it wasn't long before he grew tired of life on the bench and opted to move to China.

2. Mario Gotze, 2013-2016
Bought for: €37m from Borussia Dortmund
Sold for: €22m to Borussia Dortmund
Appearances: 114; Goals: 36

He won three straight Bundesliga titles, two German cups and a World Cup (with Germany) during his time at Bayern, but the move was a disaster and the forward admitted that he'd made a mistake in moving there. Criticised by club legend Franz Beckenbauer for behaving like "a child" on the pitch, Gotze went back to Dortmund with his tail between his legs.

1. Renato Sanches, 2016-2019
Bought for: €35m from Benfica
Sold for: €25m to Lille
Appearances: 53; Goals: 2

Having won the 2016 Golden Boy award for his performances for Benfica and Portugal, the 18-year-old was on top of the world. A year later he was on loan at Swansea. The young midfielder's star fell quickly at Bayern and he was sold without making much of an impact on the team. The good news for Bayern is that there could have been an additional €45m to pay, based on objectives, but they certainly never had to part with a penny there.
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Re: 2019/20 Generic Transfer Thread

Postby MUTU » Sat Dec 07, 2019 6:22 am

This list misses Kimmich amongst the best and the worst should feature players like Sinan Kurt
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Re: 2019/20 Generic Transfer Thread

Postby ramsej84 » Sat Dec 07, 2019 7:43 am

Gustavo should not be in that part of the list
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Re: 2019/20 Generic Transfer Thread

Postby Fénix » Sat Dec 07, 2019 9:24 am

Firefox1234 wrote:BAYERN MUNICH'S WORST
5. Luiz Gustavo, 2011-2013
Bought for: €17m from Hoffenheim
Sold for: €16m to Wolfsburg
Appearances: 100; Goals: 6

If Pep Guardiola doesn't think you're worth playing, then you have issues. Thiago Alcantara and Mario Gotze's arrivals pushed the Brazilian down the pecking order, and he moved on in search of regular football after failing to impress during two-and-a-half years at the club.

One of the most stupid things I've read/heard in the last 20 years.

The Brazilian sometimes really missed us when he left the club. Heavy drugs destroy your mind.
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Re: 2019/20 Generic Transfer Thread

Postby Coman » Sat Dec 07, 2019 10:38 am

Firefox1234 wrote:
BAYERN MUNICH'S WORST
5. Luiz Gustavo, 2011-2013
Bought for: €17m from Hoffenheim
Sold for: €16m to Wolfsburg
Appearances: 100; Goals: 6

If Pep Guardiola doesn't think you're worth playing, then you have issues. Thiago Alcantara and Mario Gotze's arrivals pushed the Brazilian down the pecking order, and he moved on in search of regular football after failing to impress during two-and-a-half years at the club.


Pep's dick has good taste for some journalist. :)
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Re: 2019/20 Generic Transfer Thread

Postby FCBayernMunchen » Sat Dec 07, 2019 11:34 am

ramsej84 wrote:Gustavo should not be in that part of the list


Neither should Costa. We’ve bought much worse players.

And no Kimmich or Dante. It’s a pretty stupid list tbh.
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Re: 2019/20 Generic Transfer Thread

Postby ramsej84 » Sat Dec 07, 2019 12:58 pm

FCBayernMunchen wrote:
ramsej84 wrote:Gustavo should not be in that part of the list


Neither should Costa. We’ve bought much worse players.

And no Kimmich or Dante. It’s a pretty stupid list tbh.
They inl the players with great expectations
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Re: 2019/20 Generic Transfer Thread

Postby xevi » Tue Dec 10, 2019 6:29 pm

Are javi, boateng, perisic, müller and coutinho leaving? I'm not very in right now.

Havertz, sane, another attcking player (werner?), a DM and a CB (probably a CB on loan as we already have lucas, alaba, süle, pavard and mai that can play there and they aren't old).

I understand this changes will be made between this winter and next summer as most of contracts expire on 2021.
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Re: 2019/20 Generic Transfer Thread

Postby #12 » Tue Dec 10, 2019 6:41 pm

xevi wrote:Are javi, boateng, perisic, müller and coutinho leaving? I'm not very in right now.

Havertz, sane, another attcking player (werner?), a DM and a CB (probably a CB on loan as we already have lucas, alaba, süle, pavard and mai that can play there and they aren't old).

I understand this changes will be made between this winter and next summer as most of contracts expire on 2021.


Süle and Hernandez barely make 1 CB combined...

And no really successful club operates with loan players...
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Re: 2019/20 Generic Transfer Thread

Postby aterford » Tue Dec 10, 2019 6:47 pm

xevi wrote:Are javi, boateng, perisic, müller and coutinho leaving? I'm not very in right now.

Havertz, sane, another attcking player (werner?), a DM and a CB (probably a CB on loan as we already have lucas, alaba, süle, pavard and mai that can play there and they aren't old).

I understand this changes will be made between this winter and next summer as most of contracts expire on 2021.


If I had to guess:

Yes, Yes, Yes, No, Yes.
And then:
Yes, Yes, No, Maybe, No

(Not necessarily my wishes but what I'd wager *will* happen)
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Re: 2019/20 Generic Transfer Thread

Postby Firefox1234 » Tue Dec 10, 2019 7:27 pm

xevi wrote:Are javi, boateng, perisic, müller and coutinho leaving? I'm not very in right now.

Havertz, sane, another attcking player (werner?), a DM and a CB (probably a CB on loan as we already have lucas, alaba, süle, pavard and mai that can play there and they aren't old).

I understand this changes will be made between this winter and next summer as most of contracts expire on 2021.

Muller will probably leave after next season but I think he will be here next season.
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Re: 2019/20 Generic Transfer Thread

Postby DRvad14 » Wed Dec 11, 2019 12:15 pm

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Re: 2019/20 Generic Transfer Thread

Postby #12 » Wed Dec 11, 2019 4:40 pm

Oh my
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Re: 2019/20 Generic Transfer Thread

Postby FCBayernMunchen » Wed Dec 11, 2019 5:32 pm

They never learn (re: Nübel)
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