You are not logged in or registered. Please login or register to use the full functionality of BayernForum.com

Robert Lewandowski

Discussions about the former / present players & staff, and their personal life. Was a player fined for speeding? Did a former player become a coach? Find it all here.
 

Re: Robert Lewandowski

Postby aterford » Wed Oct 23, 2019 4:46 pm

It really is hard to overstate just how important Lewy is to this team right now...

At the moment, Lewy is sitting at roughly +4ish actual goals to his xG projection in the league (his xG is right around 8ish and has scored 12 actual). That's got us in 3rd place after just 8 games.

That's fine and all, but what's slightly worrisome is that Lewandowski has historically been a player whose "actual goals" usually fall right in line or slightly below his expected goals. In other words, on 8xG, Lewy on average would score 8, maybe 7; this has generally held true over the course of a season.
At the moment this is not a HUGE concern. If Lewandowski's actual goals had been "only" in line with his xG, it doesn't have a huge impact...yet. If Lewy's actual goals:expected goals ratio was 1:1, we'd have lost vs Augsburg, beaten Koln 3-0 rather than 4-0, and beaten Schalke 1-0 rather than 3-0. So not a significant change yet. And of course, you can't just "remove" his goals and work under the assumption that nobody else scores a single goal there... but we have not had a consistent score at Lewy's level for a very long time, I guess perhaps Muller 15/16?
But of course - the season is still young too. A "regression" might not have a huge impact at the moment, but over the length of the whole season that could cause serious problems - and even more so if he were to pick up an injury and miss any significant time. Hypothetically speaking, if Lewy had been hurt for the start of the season and we took away his goals, we'd have 8 points and be in 13th place in the league or thereabouts (again, you can't totally assume NONE of those goals would be replaced by someone else, but you get the picture). And like I said: Lewy in a career-best form still only has us in 3rd place presently.

So...all that to say, we better hope Lewy maintains his ridiculous form all season long, because as soon as he slows down or drops off a bit, we start hurting fast. And if he gets injured for any appreciable period of time it's hard to see how we recover from that.
Operation ten Hag 2k20: Commence!
User avatar
aterford
I'm a post king!
 
Years of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membership
 
Posts: 4391
Joined: Mon Jul 08, 2013 8:40 am
Has thanked: 3712 times
Been thanked: 2802 times
Gender: Male

Re: Robert Lewandowski

Postby Aryagorn » Wed Oct 23, 2019 6:46 pm

Aryagorn
Getting the hang of it
 
Years of membershipYears of membership
 
Posts: 45
Joined: Mon Oct 02, 2017 5:33 pm
Has thanked: 3 times
Been thanked: 15 times
Gender: Male

Re: Robert Lewandowski

Postby Fénix » Wed Oct 23, 2019 6:56 pm

Nobody cares about this stats. He is doing great for FC Bayern and that's all that matters. Roy Makaay, Zlatan Ibrahimović, Christian Vieri didn't win the CL, either.

Not to mention the greatest football son after Pelé and Maradona, Ronaldo Nazário de Lima who could have been an absolute no. 1 ever if he weren't as injury prone as he was and if he only worked hard and consistently, just 20-30% of what Cristiano and Messi have been doing in their whole career.


Robert Lewandowski is a goal-machine and everyone would like to have one like him at the moment, especially in Madrid, Barcelona, Manchester, London, Torino and Milan. 8) :wink:
Auf geht's ihr Roten!
User avatar
Fénix
Moderator
 
Years of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membership
 
Posts: 8991
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2010 7:11 pm
Location: Croatia
National Flag:
Croatia
Has thanked: 3708 times
Been thanked: 3450 times
Gender: Male

Re: Robert Lewandowski

Postby IsiahRashad » Wed Oct 23, 2019 7:25 pm

Fénix wrote:Nobody cares about this stats. He is doing great for FC Bayern and that's all that matters. Roy Makaay, Zlatan Ibrahimović, Christian Vieri didn't win the CL, either.

Not to mention the greatest football son after Pelé and Maradona, Ronaldo Nazário de Lima who could have been an absolute no. 1 ever if he weren't as injury prone as he was and if he only worked hard and consistently, just 20-30% of what Cristiano and Messi have been doing in their whole career.


Robert Lewandowski is a goal-machine and everyone would like to have one like him at the moment, especially in Madrid, Barcelona, Manchester, London, Torino and Milan. 8) :wink:


Yeah, everyone is obsessed with ratings, predictions, ratios and other "important" stats. If they mattered so much, there is no need to even go out and play, since you can say that their overall xg is higher than yours. :mrgreen:

Ah, Ronaldo was a god send..
Image
User avatar
IsiahRashad
Moderator
 
Years of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membership
 
Posts: 8595
Joined: Wed Apr 08, 2015 9:38 pm
National Flag:
Bulgaria
Has thanked: 3915 times
Been thanked: 4162 times
Gender: Male

Re: Robert Lewandowski

Postby zozon » Wed Oct 23, 2019 7:34 pm

What is more ridiculous - that SHITTY xG SHIT is not an actual statistic, nor its a real life fact.

Its just a computer-generated SIMULATION of a "woulda - shoulda". Total shit and its ruining the actual statistics. Especially that some people on this forum have this weird fixation on it, all they talk about is xG this, xG that.

Ridiculous and pathetic.
User avatar
zozon
I post all the time
 
Years of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membership
 
Posts: 2273
Joined: Wed May 08, 2013 10:04 am
Has thanked: 310 times
Been thanked: 1033 times
Gender: Male

Re: Robert Lewandowski

Postby #12 » Wed Oct 23, 2019 8:42 pm

DRvad14 wrote:


"Would be"???
- Rangnick or ten Hag in!
- Bring a DM, a winger (Sané) and Havertz!
- Get a REAL sports director (Rangnick?)!
- Keep Hoeness and Rummenigge far away from the team!
User avatar
#12
Chief Critic
 
Years of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membership
 
Posts: 19052
Joined: Sat May 16, 2015 1:31 pm
National Flag:
Germany
Has thanked: 951 times
Been thanked: 4467 times
Gender: Male

Re: Robert Lewandowski

Postby #12 » Wed Oct 23, 2019 8:46 pm

zozon wrote:What is more ridiculous - that SHITTY xG SHIT is not an actual statistic, nor its a real life fact.

Its just a computer-generated SIMULATION of a "woulda - shoulda". Total shit and its ruining the actual statistics. Especially that some people on this forum have this weird fixation on it, all they talk about is xG this, xG that.

Ridiculous and pathetic.


It’s empirical data isn’t it? A simulation is something else...
- Rangnick or ten Hag in!
- Bring a DM, a winger (Sané) and Havertz!
- Get a REAL sports director (Rangnick?)!
- Keep Hoeness and Rummenigge far away from the team!
User avatar
#12
Chief Critic
 
Years of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membership
 
Posts: 19052
Joined: Sat May 16, 2015 1:31 pm
National Flag:
Germany
Has thanked: 951 times
Been thanked: 4467 times
Gender: Male

Re: Robert Lewandowski

Postby aterford » Wed Oct 23, 2019 10:21 pm

zozon wrote:What is more ridiculous - that SHITTY xG SHIT is not an actual statistic, nor its a real life fact.

Its just a computer-generated SIMULATION of a "woulda - shoulda". Total shit and its ruining the actual statistics. Especially that some people on this forum have this weird fixation on it, all they talk about is xG this, xG that.

Ridiculous and pathetic.



You know, it's okay if you just tell us that you don't understand how predictive analytics work. It's alright, nobody will judge. xG has been empirically shown to be the single most reliable indicator of future goals and points earned, but yeah, woulda-shoulda ruining-the-'real'-statistics and that.
Operation ten Hag 2k20: Commence!
User avatar
aterford
I'm a post king!
 
Years of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membership
 
Posts: 4391
Joined: Mon Jul 08, 2013 8:40 am
Has thanked: 3712 times
Been thanked: 2802 times
Gender: Male

Re: Robert Lewandowski

Postby Dumbledore7 » Wed Oct 23, 2019 10:25 pm

aterford wrote:
zozon wrote:What is more ridiculous - that SHITTY xG SHIT is not an actual statistic, nor its a real life fact.

Its just a computer-generated SIMULATION of a "woulda - shoulda". Total shit and its ruining the actual statistics. Especially that some people on this forum have this weird fixation on it, all they talk about is xG this, xG that.

Ridiculous and pathetic.



You know, it's okay if you just tell us that you don't understand how predictive analytics work. It's alright, nobody will judge. xG has been empirically shown to be the single most reliable indicator of future goals and points earned, but yeah, woulda-shoulda ruining-the-'real'-statistics and that.

Agreed - with that noted, it has to be said that xG is in a different world compared to the kindergarten arithmetics of G+A/90 used around here.
Kovac OUT!!!
User avatar
Dumbledore7
I live on BayernForum.com
 
Years of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membership
 
Posts: 5297
Joined: Thu Jan 02, 2014 3:02 pm
Location: London
National Flag:
Indonesia
Has thanked: 3879 times
Been thanked: 3239 times
Gender: Male
BayernForum.com fan club: Active member

Re: Robert Lewandowski

Postby Borusse » Thu Oct 24, 2019 11:26 am

zozon wrote:What is more ridiculous - that SHITTY xG SHIT is not an actual statistic, nor its a real life fact.

Its just a computer-generated SIMULATION of a "woulda - shoulda". Total shit and its ruining the actual statistics. Especially that some people on this forum have this weird fixation on it, all they talk about is xG this, xG that.

Ridiculous and pathetic.


This is probably how people sounded like decades ago when football analysts started collecting data like possesion, passes, tackles etc.

"Who needs this shit, all it matters is the number of goals scored!" :mrgreen: I guess many people still sound that way.

xG is a model based on probability and it's definitely interesting and instructive. All of life is a game of probability, you look for solutions that give you the highest chance of reaching your goal, you almost never have 100% guarantees of success when you compete. And football is one of the games where there is often a noticable difference between what WOULDA SHOULDA happen and what actually happens. It's similar in a game like Poker where you look for most profitable plays (Expected Value) but you still might lose a lot of money short-term. It's called variance.

So xG is a nice tool and very much worth looking into.
User avatar
Borusse
Borussia Dortmund Supporter
 
Years of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membership
 
Posts: 4539
Joined: Thu Dec 13, 2012 2:07 am
National Flag:
Poland
Has thanked: 326 times
Been thanked: 1412 times
Gender: Male

Re: Robert Lewandowski

Postby zozon » Thu Oct 24, 2019 1:16 pm

Borusse wrote:This is probably how people sounded like decades ago when football analysts started collecting data like possesion, passes, tackles etc.

xG is a model based on probability and it's definitely interesting and instructive.


I couldnt care less of how those people sounded decades ago, I just see how people react now to this retarded xG.

Do you even realise how contradictive is your post?
You are comparing real-life data, data that was there and then as it happened (possesion, passes, tackles) to some probability model, based on some formula. A pure "woulda-shoulda" mojo that is shit.
Its name its even more shitter, EXPECTED goals. Wow, so where are the expected pissings of the players before the game (xP), expected paper-planes landing on the playing field (xPP) or the expected times of Neuer taking a sip out of the water bottle (xN)? Nice that you used the term TOOL cause its neither a stat or a real data.

Its like comparing real-life scientist lab data to a Nostradamus prophecy. Are you for real?
User avatar
zozon
I post all the time
 
Years of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membership
 
Posts: 2273
Joined: Wed May 08, 2013 10:04 am
Has thanked: 310 times
Been thanked: 1033 times
Gender: Male

Re: Robert Lewandowski

Postby Borusse » Thu Oct 24, 2019 5:26 pm

You're arguing against math at this point. Expected pretty much means the chance of an event happening and how many times you can expect it to happen when it's played out multiple times. Like a toin coss, expected heads or tails are 0.5 but there can easily be a few heads or tails in a row before it evens out long term.

There is a 1/6 EX on getting a specific number when throwing a dice. It's very important to know all of this before you start gambling.

xG in football gives a much better understanding of how real the threat the team created in a given game. Looking just at the number of shots is too vague and can lead to wrong conclusions.

Let's say you take 20 shots during a game against opponent's 5 shots. Looks like you dominated the game and created a huge number of chances, right?
But what if those 20 shots were taken from 40meters out and had no real chance of being effective? The stat becomes very misleading. This is where xG comes in handy because it estimates the probability of the shot going in and it would probably give all of those shots something like 2% chance of being effective. So the team that took 20 shots had actually only 0.4 xG. The other team took 5 shots but all of them were 1on1s with the keeper with a 60% chance each. That gives us 3.0 xG. Suddenly it makes you take a completely different look at the game. This is of course an extreme example for the discussion's purposes.

We can argue about the model and how it could be more accurate in some cases and that it's not optimal yet, sure. But saying it's "shit" is like denying that probability exists. And sorry to break it to you but probability is always going to be a factor no matter what kind of competition you take part in.
User avatar
Borusse
Borussia Dortmund Supporter
 
Years of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membership
 
Posts: 4539
Joined: Thu Dec 13, 2012 2:07 am
National Flag:
Poland
Has thanked: 326 times
Been thanked: 1412 times
Gender: Male

Re: Robert Lewandowski

Postby #12 » Thu Oct 24, 2019 5:41 pm

Dumbledore7 wrote:
aterford wrote:
zozon wrote:What is more ridiculous - that SHITTY xG SHIT is not an actual statistic, nor its a real life fact.

Its just a computer-generated SIMULATION of a "woulda - shoulda". Total shit and its ruining the actual statistics. Especially that some people on this forum have this weird fixation on it, all they talk about is xG this, xG that.

Ridiculous and pathetic.



You know, it's okay if you just tell us that you don't understand how predictive analytics work. It's alright, nobody will judge. xG has been empirically shown to be the single most reliable indicator of future goals and points earned, but yeah, woulda-shoulda ruining-the-'real'-statistics and that.

Agreed - with that noted, it has to be said that xG is in a different world compared to the kindergarten arithmetics of G+A/90 used around here.


Still a valuable measure (among others) to judge a players current performance...
- Rangnick or ten Hag in!
- Bring a DM, a winger (Sané) and Havertz!
- Get a REAL sports director (Rangnick?)!
- Keep Hoeness and Rummenigge far away from the team!
User avatar
#12
Chief Critic
 
Years of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membership
 
Posts: 19052
Joined: Sat May 16, 2015 1:31 pm
National Flag:
Germany
Has thanked: 951 times
Been thanked: 4467 times
Gender: Male

Re: Robert Lewandowski

Postby #12 » Thu Oct 24, 2019 5:45 pm

Borusse wrote:You're arguing against math at this point. Expected pretty much means the chance of an event happening and how many times you can expect it to happen when it's played out multiple times. Like a toin coss, expected heads or tails are 0.5 but there can easily be a few heads or tails in a row before it evens out long term.

There is a 1/6 EX on getting a specific number when throwing a dice. It's very important to know all of this before you start gambling.

xG in football gives a much better understanding of how real the threat the team created in a given game. Looking just at the number of shots is too vague and can lead to wrong conclusions.

Let's say you take 20 shots during a game against opponent's 5 shots. Looks like you dominated the game and created a huge number of chances, right?
But what if those 20 shots were taken from 40meters out and had no real chance of being effective? The stat becomes very misleading. This is where xG comes in handy because it estimates the probability of the shot going in and it would probably give all of those shots something like 2% chance of being effective. So the team that took 20 shots had actually only 0.4 xG. The other team took 5 shots but all of them were 1on1s with the keeper with a 60% chance each. That gives us 3.0 xG. Suddenly it makes you take a completely different look at the game. This is of course an extreme example for the discussion's purposes.

We can argue about the model and how it could be more accurate in some cases and that it's not optimal yet, sure. But saying it's "shit" is like denying that probability exists. And sorry to break it to you but probability is always going to be a factor no matter what kind of competition you take part in.


Are you seriously trying to reason with him?

Daring...
- Rangnick or ten Hag in!
- Bring a DM, a winger (Sané) and Havertz!
- Get a REAL sports director (Rangnick?)!
- Keep Hoeness and Rummenigge far away from the team!
User avatar
#12
Chief Critic
 
Years of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membership
 
Posts: 19052
Joined: Sat May 16, 2015 1:31 pm
National Flag:
Germany
Has thanked: 951 times
Been thanked: 4467 times
Gender: Male

Re: Robert Lewandowski

Postby Dumbledore7 » Thu Oct 24, 2019 6:41 pm

#12 wrote:
Dumbledore7 wrote:Agreed - with that noted, it has to be said that xG is in a different world compared to the kindergarten arithmetics of G+A/90 used around here.


Still a valuable measure (among others) to judge a players current performance...

It's completely worthless.
Kovac OUT!!!
User avatar
Dumbledore7
I live on BayernForum.com
 
Years of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membership
 
Posts: 5297
Joined: Thu Jan 02, 2014 3:02 pm
Location: London
National Flag:
Indonesia
Has thanked: 3879 times
Been thanked: 3239 times
Gender: Male
BayernForum.com fan club: Active member

PreviousNext

Return to Bayern Player & Staff Discussion

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 5 guests