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James Rodríguez [James David Rodríguez Rubio]

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Re: James Rodríguez [James David Rodríguez Rubio]

Postby Ed. » Mon May 14, 2018 6:29 pm

MUTU wrote:
Ed. wrote:Well, atleast whoscored put out some breakdown of their overall score. Is there an equivalent for Kicker?
And it's not like the Kicker top 10 list is easily believable either.
Kicker is not automated. It's a reporter (or a group of them) who gives a rating after every match. The list is their average rating. And it looks much better IMO.


Well, just because something looks better doesn't mean it a more accurate (or truthful) measure.

There will be flaws in any automated rating system based of underlying raw true stats sure, that's the eternal dilemma in statistics. Which ones you pick and what weights you assign in computing some kind of rank, which is in effect converting an incontestable true set of numbers into a subjective interpretation of those numbers, but surely if one wanted to make this ranking process more reliable and less error prone , this would be the way to do it, instead of relying on subjective human input.
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Re: James Rodríguez [James David Rodríguez Rubio]

Postby MUTU » Tue May 15, 2018 6:02 am

You cannot possibly factor in everything in an automated system. Let me bring an example. I remember a Germany match where there was a penalty against and I remember while the player was running up to kick the penalty, Ballack was gesticulating wildly to Lehmann to jump to his right, and lo and behold Lehmann obeys him and saves the penalty. Something rare and random like this will never make it to an automated system, but a human would probably factor it in when coming up with Ballack's player rating.
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Re: James Rodríguez [James David Rodríguez Rubio]

Postby PunkCapitalist » Tue May 15, 2018 7:36 am

MUTU wrote:You cannot possibly factor in everything in an automated system. Let me bring an example. I remember a Germany match where there was a penalty against and I remember while the player was running up to kick the penalty, Ballack was gesticulating wildly to Lehmann to jump to his right, and lo and behold Lehmann obeys him and saves the penalty. Something rare and random like this will never make it to an automated system, but a human would probably factor it in when coming up with Ballack's player rating.
This is why Goalimpact is the better automated statistical system (and better than human subjectivity too). It accounts for off-the-ball actions as well as anything else that could conceivably change the goal difference in a match.

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Re: James Rodríguez [James David Rodríguez Rubio]

Postby MUTU » Tue May 15, 2018 8:54 am

PunkCapitalist wrote:
MUTU wrote:You cannot possibly factor in everything in an automated system. Let me bring an example. I remember a Germany match where there was a penalty against and I remember while the player was running up to kick the penalty, Ballack was gesticulating wildly to Lehmann to jump to his right, and lo and behold Lehmann obeys him and saves the penalty. Something rare and random like this will never make it to an automated system, but a human would probably factor it in when coming up with Ballack's player rating.
This is why Goalimpact is the better automated statistical system (and better than human subjectivity too). It accounts for off-the-ball actions as well as anything else that could conceivably change the goal difference in a match.

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What?
WHAT?

Ballack gesticulating to Lehmann was a critical point in the match. That gesticulating on its own deserved a +1 in the player rating (out of 10). This is WHY automated systems will always lag behind, because there are too many random situations that they cannot possibly account for.
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Re: James Rodríguez [James David Rodríguez Rubio]

Postby Ed. » Wed May 16, 2018 1:49 pm

MUTU wrote:What?
WHAT?

Ballack gesticulating to Lehmann was a critical point in the match. That gesticulating on its own deserved a +1 in the player rating (out of 10). This is WHY automated systems will always lag behind, because there are too many random situations that they cannot possibly account for.


Well, there aren't so many random variations really. You are giving way too much importance to non-footballing off the ball events. They do influence the game but are not decisive. I think the incident you refer to was WC 2006? Yes Ballack can wave his arms all he wants, it's Lehman that made the save in the end and deserves the credit. In fact if you ask Lehman, he would probably say he was going that way anyway :D

Sure, automated systems can easily lead to simpson paradox type interpretations of the raw stats but they do not suffer from the biggest flaw in a human controlled system, which is irrationality and bias.
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Re: James Rodríguez [James David Rodríguez Rubio]

Postby MUTU » Wed May 16, 2018 1:55 pm

Ed., it's really simple. Do you think that Caliguiri was the best German player in the Bundesliga last season, yes or no?
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Re: James Rodríguez [James David Rodríguez Rubio]

Postby Ed. » Wed May 16, 2018 3:01 pm

MUTU wrote:Ed., it's really simple. Do you think that Caliguiri was the best German player in the Bundesliga last season, yes or no?


Well, it's actually not simple Mutu. Just because a test does not produce an expected result does not mean the test is flawed.

Anyway, that image is saying he's second best. :D

No, I don't think he was the second best player but that is biased and based on the very little I've seen him play live (2-3 games maybe this season) and know about him.

I'm not some fan of whoscored but I'm not going to dismiss their interpretation of metrics and accuracy of measurement of these metrics(passes made, interceptions, dribbles etc etc) because it does not match my notion of what I think the outcome should be. If they are saying he was so good, I choose to know why rather than dismiss their result.

Have you followed Schalke live every game to so categorically dismiss his ranking?

Looking at his numbers, he has very good all round metrics. Goals, assists, high number of tackles and defensive numbers.
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Re: James Rodríguez [James David Rodríguez Rubio]

Postby MUTU » Wed May 16, 2018 3:33 pm

Ed. wrote:
MUTU wrote:Ed., it's really simple. Do you think that Caliguiri was the best German player in the Bundesliga last season, yes or no?

Well, it's actually not simple Mutu. Just because a test does not produce an expected result does not mean the test is flawed.


If you're trying to determine whether an automated system is better than a manual one, the only proper test is to look at the results and determine which one makes more sense. If one has results that makes you think "WTF?!" then it's natural to rate it as inferior.

Ed. wrote:Anyway, that image is saying he's second best. :D

No, read what I wrote. It says Caligiuri was the best GERMAN player in the Bundesliga. James is Colombian as you obviously know.

Ed. wrote:No, I don't think he was the second best player but that is biased and based on the very little I've seen him play live (2-3 games maybe this season) and know about him.

I'm not some fan of whoscored but I'm not going to dismiss their interpretation of metrics and accuracy of measurement of these metrics(passes made, interceptions, dribbles etc etc) because it does not match my notion of what I think the outcome should be. If they are saying he was so good, I choose to know why rather than dismiss their result.

I'm not saying WhoScored is shit, and excuse me if I gave that impression. I'm simply saying the system is not good enough. Sure, it lacks bias so it gives a different insight, and it's very valid for comparisons in the general sense, but there are too many intricacies that are lost by a simple algorithm that makes manual, closed, specific systems such as Kicker ratings preferable to me. I should know, since I'm a software engineer.

Ed. wrote:Have you followed Schalke live every game to so categorically dismiss his ranking?

No, but since there weren't calls for him to be included by experts in Germany and loads of complaints and disbelief by Schalke fans at his omission from the preliminary World Cup squad gives me enough confidence to declare it as a flaw in WhoScored.
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Re: James Rodríguez [James David Rodríguez Rubio]

Postby Ed. » Wed May 16, 2018 6:25 pm

MUTU wrote:If you're trying to determine whether an automated system is better than a manual one, the only proper test is to look at the results and determine which one makes more sense. If one has results that makes you think "WTF?!" then it's natural to rate it as inferior.


Nope, that is not the proper test, i.e looking at the results. The proper test would be to trawl through all the data (manually or another automated check), verify what metrics were assigned to the player and see if you come back with the same result.

MUTU wrote:No, read what I wrote. It says Caligiuri was the best GERMAN player in the Bundesliga. James is Colombian as you obviously know.


Ok, you got me there, I didn't notice the "german" initially.

MUTU wrote:I'm not saying WhoScored is shit, and excuse me if I gave that impression. I'm simply saying the system is not good enough. Sure, it lacks bias so it gives a different insight, and it's very valid for comparisons in the general sense, but there are too many intricacies that are lost by a simple algorithm that makes manual, closed, specific systems such as Kicker ratings preferable to me.[


Out of "manual, closed, specific", only the term "manual" applies to kicker in this case.

Also, you cannot say the system allows for indirect unpredictable influences like the Ballack case and claim it is closed. If anything the automated system is closed because there are no more influences on the rating than the predefined metrics measured.

MUTU wrote:I should know, since I'm a software engineer.

Yep, and I'm a semiconductor design engineer, so what of it? :roll:
You are just stating a personal preference here.
If I had to pick between a review of a massive code base from 10 engineers visually inspecting it vs an automated test regression report, I know which one I would trust more.

MUTU wrote:No, but since there weren't calls for him to be included by experts in Germany and loads of complaints and disbelief by Schalke fans at his omission from the preliminary World Cup squad gives me enough confidence to declare it as a flaw in WhoScored.


That really doesn't mean much. Conversely, Lars bender is the best BL player this season according to Kicker, so you should suspect a flaw in their ratings for the very same reason.
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Re: James Rodríguez [James David Rodríguez Rubio]

Postby MUTU » Wed May 16, 2018 6:47 pm

Ed. wrote:
MUTU wrote:If you're trying to determine whether an automated system is better than a manual one, the only proper test is to look at the results and determine which one makes more sense. If one has results that makes you think "WTF?!" then it's natural to rate it as inferior.


Nope, that is not the proper test, i.e looking at the results. The proper test would be to trawl through all the data (manually or another automated check), verify what metrics were assigned to the player and see if you come back with the same result.

Are you saying that if I were to devise some super mega complicated algorithm that churns out the data and claims that Donald Trump is the best player in the world, you would actually go through and try to understand the algorithm before deciding that it's plain wrong, or would you use common sense?

Ed. wrote:
MUTU wrote:I'm not saying WhoScored is shit, and excuse me if I gave that impression. I'm simply saying the system is not good enough. Sure, it lacks bias so it gives a different insight, and it's very valid for comparisons in the general sense, but there are too many intricacies that are lost by a simple algorithm that makes manual, closed, specific systems such as Kicker ratings preferable to me.[


Out of "manual, closed, specific", only the term "manual" applies to kicker in this case.

Also, you cannot say the system allows for indirect unpredictable influences like the Ballack case and claim it is closed. If anything the automated system is closed because there are no more influences on the rating than the predefined metrics measured.

By closed I mean it's a system for the Bundesliga. That is, I wouldn't go look for a Kicker-equivalent that covers La Liga and compare the players from one system to another because the player ratings won't match up too well. But with Kicker ratings they try to keep the save level of strictness, so to say.

Ed. wrote:
MUTU wrote:I should know, since I'm a software engineer.

Yep, and I'm a semiconductor design engineer, so what of it? :roll:

It means I understand algorithms very well, and know their limitations.

Ed. wrote:
MUTU wrote:No, but since there weren't calls for him to be included by experts in Germany and loads of complaints and disbelief by Schalke fans at his omission from the preliminary World Cup squad gives me enough confidence to declare it as a flaw in WhoScored.


That really doesn't mean much. Conversely, Lars bender is the best BL player this season according to Kicker, so you should suspect a flaw in their ratings for the very same reason.

True, it doesn't help my case. However, one can argue (clutching a bit at straws here) that Bender has much tougher competition for his position.
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Re: James Rodríguez [James David Rodríguez Rubio]

Postby Ed. » Wed May 16, 2018 7:35 pm

MUTU wrote:Are you saying that if I were to devise some super mega complicated algorithm that churns out the data and claims that Donald Trump is the best player in the world, you would actually go through and try to understand the algorithm before deciding that it's plain wrong, or would you use common sense?


I'm not sure you've realized by declaring you have software (and hence a scientific) background you've basically contradicted yourself completely with that statement.
Thank God there were some rational people around when Pythogoras declared the world was round or Darwin theorized we descended from apes, both ideas that were as crazy at the time as the premise that Trump could be the best football player on the planet.

And yes, in the case you mention, unless I have good reason to doubt the integrity of the creator of the algorithm I would be very interested in how they came about with this result that Trump was the best player in the world before I called BS on the result.

MUTU wrote:By closed I mean it's a system for the Bundesliga. That is, I wouldn't go look for a Kicker-equivalent that covers La Liga and compare the players from one system to another because the player ratings won't match up too well. But with Kicker ratings they try to keep the save level of strictness, so to say.


I don't follow what you are saying here. If Kicker had a Liga rating what would be the problem with the authenticity of that? I think you are essentially saying the Kicker raters have a predefined bias/knowledge for the BL players in general which then cannot be said to be exclusive from having a bias towards certain players.

MUTU wrote:t means I understand algorithms very well, and know their limitations.

Well ,so do I. :)
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Re: James Rodríguez [James David Rodríguez Rubio]

Postby MUTU » Wed May 16, 2018 9:13 pm

You'd probably be the only person in the world checking out the algorithm in that case.

No I didn't mean if Kicker made the ratings for La Liga but if say Marca did them.
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Re: James Rodríguez [James David Rodríguez Rubio]

Postby #12 » Wed May 16, 2018 9:51 pm

Are you guys unemployed?
JUPPJUPPJUPPJUPPJUPPJUPPJUPPJUPPJUPPJUPPJUPPJUPPJUPPJUPPJUPP
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Re: James Rodríguez [James David Rodríguez Rubio]

Postby Ed. » Thu May 17, 2018 3:29 am

#12 wrote:Are you guys unemployed?


Haha, does look like it doesn't it?
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Re: James Rodríguez [James David Rodríguez Rubio]

Postby Ed. » Thu May 17, 2018 4:12 am

MUTU wrote:You'd probably be the only person in the world checking out the algorithm in that case.


I highly highly doubt that would be the case with an objective person.

In any case, your analogy was too big a stretch, a more reasonable comparison would have been some algorithm or test that shows Trump has been the best President ever.

Anyway, thread is being derailed. This is my last post on the topic.
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