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Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)

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Re: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)

Postby Dumbledore7 » Sun Apr 12, 2020 4:42 pm

#12 wrote:Proof will come... For me, the US is proof enough...
Because they adopted the no SD approach for a while because some retard cared about nothing but his re-election and fixed the numbers artificially... And now he’s doing the same, rewriting history, telling everyone about his great job... What... A... Moron...!
Sweden is less of a hub... It will take the virus longer to get an actual foothold... But it WILL happen...

Sigh, barely intelligible post with little substance. There's no flow of logic, it's difficult to get the point you're trying to make, all muddled by emotional claims. What qualifies the US, a unique country in many ways, as a reasonable point of reference for Sweden (even when you claimed that the 4 out of 5 who are doing badly had poor government pre-virus, the odd one out was Sweden isn't it?)? What makes a country a "hub"? When does a virus get a "foothold"? What *WILL* happen? You may diss people like ramsej84 who have different opinions but your way of conveying messages is just as poor.

I want to have an actual discussion here. Should I wait for RedQueen or will you try to be more objective and less dismissive?
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Re: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)

Postby ramsej84 » Sun Apr 12, 2020 5:01 pm

Boris Johnson has been dismissed from Hospital
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Re: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)

Postby Dumbledore7 » Sun Apr 12, 2020 5:06 pm

@#12 - see, this is called a discussion.

RedQueen wrote:@dumbledore7, IMO it's a reckless gamble putting peoples' lives at risk by making them involuntary subjects of a field experiment. I've seen at least three pandemic simulations that come to the conclusion that such a strategy is likely to lead into catastrophe.

Yes, I definitely see the point, but it is *their* gamble isn't it? It's also not as if they are mandating people to go out - from the little I can gather so far, some companies are already upholding working from home, and they have put the minimal stringent measures (e.g. the schools). It still looks like the choice is left to society being reasonable - I'm sure Sweden is already quieter than normal, and as with most countries, an organic "lockdown" was already taking place without policies.

Also, I do realise that this is now about human lives which "matters above all", but at the end of the day, this pandemic will pass and the matter above all else will return to the economy. Yes, it's immoral and insensitive to weigh it as cost-benefit, but I can never fully dismiss a (supposedly) measured attempt to balance the health impact and the socio-economic impact.

RedQueen wrote:They've also been operating under false assumptions, for instance that asymptomatic and presymptomatic patients are not infectious (including children, which is their reasoning for keeping the schools and kindergartens open). This has been proven false; almost half the patients were infected by people not or not yet showing symptoms.


Completely agreed, but it still remains that the majority of the those affliced by the virus will be asymptomatic / mildly symptomatic, enough to build antibodies without treatment - this still gives a strong foundation to herd immunity (even though I'm also not a fan).

RedQueen wrote:The only reason infections haven't yet exploded is the low population density and the fact they have ca. 50 percent one person households.

And this is exactly why I don't want to be dismissive of Sweden just now - what if this is the right strategy for this population profile? It's epidemiology at its core - it's about the right response for the subject population.

Just throwing my opinion here as well - to me, the absolute right measure would be to go on the offensive (see Vietnam's almost-military approach to tracking down cases and Singapore's fully open monitoring. If resources are unlimited, then do it like Korea and mass-test.). These approaches would of course raise questions from the overly liberal westerners about privacy and power of state, but then it's also the westerners who are begging for lockdowns everywhere. We can have an objective discussion, but quite frankly westerners don't have much leg or moral high ground to stand on to overly criticise.
Last edited by Dumbledore7 on Sun Apr 12, 2020 5:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)

Postby ramsej84 » Sun Apr 12, 2020 5:06 pm

97 new case in the country in which the virus originated....

The majority are of people returning back home....

A second wave?


I hope that all of Europe will stay vigilant as much as possible cause if a second wave hits us before a vaccine is ready it will be much more deadly
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Re: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)

Postby #12 » Sun Apr 12, 2020 5:12 pm

Dumbledore7 wrote:
#12 wrote:Proof will come... For me, the US is proof enough...
Because they adopted the no SD approach for a while because some retard cared about nothing but his re-election and fixed the numbers artificially... And now he’s doing the same, rewriting history, telling everyone about his great job... What... A... Moron...!
Sweden is less of a hub... It will take the virus longer to get an actual foothold... But it WILL happen...

Sigh, barely intelligible post with little substance. There's no flow of logic, it's difficult to get the point you're trying to make, all muddled by emotional claims. What qualifies the US, a unique country in many ways, as a reasonable point of reference for Sweden (even when you claimed that the 4 out of 5 who are doing badly had poor government pre-virus, the odd one out was Sweden isn't it?)? What makes a country a "hub"? When does a virus get a "foothold"? What *WILL* happen? You may diss people like ramsej84 who have different opinions but your way of conveying messages is just as poor.

I want to have an actual discussion here. Should I wait for RedQueen or will you try to be more objective and less dismissive?


I AM...

Okay, here’s the thing: What you see in the US, is what I expect in Sweden in a few weeks to months:
The virus arrived early on in the US... But it got to Sweden relatively late, as they are less frequently traveled for business purposes - that was the hub thing...
So it has gotten more of a foothold in the US - meaning it had time to establish a bridgehead since late January at least... RQ already pointed out another "advantage" Sweden has, which further slowed down the virus spread... Now the US seem to be able to break the spell - but most likely Sweden won’t even try...

Last but not least, I didn’t deem my post emotional, all the world knows he's a moron... I got carried away a little nonetheless... Sorry...
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Re: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)

Postby #12 » Sun Apr 12, 2020 5:13 pm

RedQueen wrote:@dumbledore7, IMO it's a reckless gamble putting peoples' lives at risk by making them involuntary subjects of a field experiment. I've seen at least three pandemic simulations that come to the conclusion that such a strategy is likely to lead into catastrophe.

They've also been operating under false assumptions, for instance that asymptomatic and presymptomatic patients are not infectious (including children, which is their reasoning for keeping the schools and kindergartens open). This has been proven false; almost half the patients were infected by people not or not yet showing symptoms. The only reason infections haven't yet exploded is the low population density and the fact they have ca. 50 percent one person households.
RQ, what's your take on schools reopening next week?
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Re: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)

Postby #12 » Sun Apr 12, 2020 5:13 pm

Dumbledore7 wrote:@#12 - see, this is called a discussion.

RedQueen wrote:@dumbledore7, IMO it's a reckless gamble putting peoples' lives at risk by making them involuntary subjects of a field experiment. I've seen at least three pandemic simulations that come to the conclusion that such a strategy is likely to lead into catastrophe.

Yes, I definitely see the point, but it is *their* gamble isn't it? It's also not as if they are mandating people to go out - from the little I can gather so far, some companies are already upholding working from home, and they have put the minimal stringent measures (e.g. the schools). It still looks like the choice is left to society being reasonable - I'm sure Sweden is already quieter than normal, and as with most countries, an organic "lockdown" was already taking place without policies.

Also, I do realise that this is now about human lives which "matters above all", but at the end of the day, this pandemic will pass and the matter above all else will return to the economy. Yes, it's immoral and insensitive to weigh it as cost-benefit, but I can never fully dismiss a (supposedly) measured attempt to balance the health impact and the socio-economic impact.

RedQueen wrote:They've also been operating under false assumptions, for instance that asymptomatic and presymptomatic patients are not infectious (including children, which is their reasoning for keeping the schools and kindergartens open). This has been proven false; almost half the patients were infected by people not or not yet showing symptoms.


Completely agreed, but it still remains that the majority of the those affliced by the virus will be asymptomatic / mildly symptomatic, enough to build antibodies without treatment - this still gives a strong foundation to herd immunity (even though I'm also not a fan).

RedQueen wrote:The only reason infections haven't yet exploded is the low population density and the fact they have ca. 50 percent one person households.

And this is exactly why I don't want to be dismissive of Sweden just now - what if this is the right strategy for this population profile? It's epidemiology at its core - it's about the right response for the subject population.

Just throwing my opinion here as well - to me, the absolute right measure would be to go on the offensive (see Vietnam's almost-military approach to tracking down cases and Singapore's fully open monitoring. If resources are unlimited, then do it like Korea and mass-test.). These approaches would of course raise questions from the overly liberal westerners about privacy and power of state, but then it's also the westerners who are begging for lockdowns everywhere. We can have an objective discussion, but quite frankly westerners don't have much leg or moral high ground to stand on to overly criticise.
Please don’t lecture me, being condescending- which you also do frequently- is not exactly a great way of discussing either
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Re: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)

Postby Dumbledore7 » Sun Apr 12, 2020 5:20 pm

Where was I being condescending apart from when you deserved it?

If it's the liberal remark, then I take it back.
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Re: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)

Postby Dumbledore7 » Sun Apr 12, 2020 5:25 pm

#12 wrote:
Dumbledore7 wrote:
#12 wrote:Proof will come... For me, the US is proof enough...
Because they adopted the no SD approach for a while because some retard cared about nothing but his re-election and fixed the numbers artificially... And now he’s doing the same, rewriting history, telling everyone about his great job... What... A... Moron...!
Sweden is less of a hub... It will take the virus longer to get an actual foothold... But it WILL happen...

Sigh, barely intelligible post with little substance. There's no flow of logic, it's difficult to get the point you're trying to make, all muddled by emotional claims. What qualifies the US, a unique country in many ways, as a reasonable point of reference for Sweden (even when you claimed that the 4 out of 5 who are doing badly had poor government pre-virus, the odd one out was Sweden isn't it?)? What makes a country a "hub"? When does a virus get a "foothold"? What *WILL* happen? You may diss people like ramsej84 who have different opinions but your way of conveying messages is just as poor.

I want to have an actual discussion here. Should I wait for RedQueen or will you try to be more objective and less dismissive?


I AM...

Okay, here’s the thing: What you see in the US, is what I expect in Sweden in a few weeks to months:
The virus arrived early on in the US... But it got to Sweden relatively late, as they are less frequently traveled for business purposes - that was the hub thing...
So it has gotten more of a foothold in the US - meaning it had time to establish a bridgehead since late January at least... RQ already pointed out another "advantage" Sweden has, which further slowed down the virus spread... Now the US seem to be able to break the spell - but most likely Sweden won’t even try...

Last but not least, I didn’t deem my post emotional, all the world knows he's a moron... I got carried away a little nonetheless... Sorry...

Look, if ramsej84 writes "Proof will come..." about anything at all, you'll go ballistic. Just watch it next time.
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Re: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)

Postby RedQueen » Sun Apr 12, 2020 5:26 pm

Dumbledore7 wrote:Also, I do realise that this is now about human lives which "matters above all", but at the end of the day, this pandemic will pass and the matter above all else will return to the economy. Yes, it's immoral and insensitive to weigh it as cost-benefit, but I can never fully dismiss a (supposedly) measured attempt to balance the health impact and the socio-economic impact.

I don't think it's really their choice; kids have to go to school (afaik it's mandatory in Sweden) and are exposed themselves, as well as everyone in the households they live in. They have a very bad problem in nursery homes in Sweden already. One third of the homes in Stockholm are affected. Neither the old people living there nor the personnel have a choice; even if you keep your own family from visiting, you can do nothing about the families of others.

RedQueen wrote:Completely agreed, but it still remains that the majority of the those affliced by the virus will be asymptomatic / mildly symptomatic, enough to build antibodies without treatment - this still gives a strong foundation to herd immunity (even though I'm also not a fan).

Question is at what cost. They have 500 ICU units in entire Sweden and a couple of days ago more than 400 were already in use. If people need an ICU unit and none is available, they're highly likely to die. The poor ICU capacity in Sweden makes it even worse.

And this is exactly why I don't want to be dismissive of Sweden just now - what if this is the right strategy for this population profile? It's epidemiology at its core - it's about the right response for the subject population.

The situation in the elderly homes suggests it isn't the right strategy. I don't know what they're playing at; I've seen people in Germany praising Sweden for "looking out for the economic and social future of society" - self-proclaimed social democrats even. I hope this isn't another version of applying a perverse kind of "natural selection" strategy; I thought Swedish social democrats were long past this inglorious history. But it does make me wonder why this is happening in Sweden of all places.

Just throwing my opinion here as well - to me, the absolute right measure would be to go on the offensive (see Vietnam's almost-military approach to tracking down cases and Singapore's fully open monitoring. If resources are unlimited, then do it like Korea and mass-test.). These approaches would of course raise questions from the overly liberal westerners about privacy and power of state, but then it's also the westerners who are begging for lockdowns everywhere. We can have an objective discussion, but quite frankly westerners don't have much leg or moral high ground to stand on to overly criticise.

People in Germany are downright schizophrenic about this. They praise South Korea and Singapore for keeping up public life but at the same time they won't accept mandatory or even voluntary tracking apps. They just want to have their cake and eat it.

I don't know what they're planning for us, a decision is to be made next week. This weekend the science academy Leopoldina is supposed to work out a strategy for the time after April 19th (the preliminary end date for the current partly lock-down). They're Merkels most trusted advisors. Whatever they come up with tomorrow will probably become law, perhaps with some modifications.
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Re: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)

Postby Dumbledore7 » Sun Apr 12, 2020 5:42 pm

RedQueen wrote:They have a very bad problem in nursery homes in Sweden already. One third of the homes in Stockholm are affected. Neither the old people living there nor the personnel have a choice; even if you keep your own family from visiting, you can do nothing about the families of others.

RedQueen wrote:Question is at what cost. They have 500 ICU units in entire Sweden and a couple of days ago more than 400 were already in use. If people need an ICU unit and none is available, they're highly likely to die. The poor ICU capacity in Sweden makes it even worse.

Yes, seen these too. Again, throwing morality out of the window, the situation reads to me as if it was almost the intention to contain the severity within the vulnerable population. At what cost indeed, but history will praise this if they come out of this strong.

RedQueen wrote:
And this is exactly why I don't want to be dismissive of Sweden just now - what if this is the right strategy for this population profile? It's epidemiology at its core - it's about the right response for the subject population.

The situation in the elderly homes suggests it isn't the right strategy. I don't know what they're playing at; I've seen people in Germany praising Sweden for "looking out for the economic and social future of society" - self-proclaimed social democrats even. I hope this isn't another version of applying a perverse kind of "natural selection" strategy; I thought Swedish social democrats were long past this inglorious history. But it does make me wonder why this is happening in Sweden of all places.

Definitely an interesting anecdote... and for better or worse it's partially why I'm really fascinated by Sweden's approach and how it will unfold.

RedQueen wrote:I don't know what they're planning for us, a decision is to be made next week. This weekend the science academy Leopoldina is supposed to work out a strategy for the time after April 19th (the preliminary end date for the current partly lock-down). They're Merkels most trusted advisors. Whatever they come up with tomorrow will probably become law, perhaps with some modifications.

Thanks for the info, will be on the lookout.
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Re: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)

Postby Dumbledore7 » Sun Apr 12, 2020 5:47 pm

He kinda looks like shit having just been discharged...
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Re: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)

Postby RedQueen » Sun Apr 12, 2020 6:00 pm

#12 wrote:
RedQueen wrote:@dumbledore7, IMO it's a reckless gamble putting peoples' lives at risk by making them involuntary subjects of a field experiment. I've seen at least three pandemic simulations that come to the conclusion that such a strategy is likely to lead into catastrophe.

They've also been operating under false assumptions, for instance that asymptomatic and presymptomatic patients are not infectious (including children, which is their reasoning for keeping the schools and kindergartens open). This has been proven false; almost half the patients were infected by people not or not yet showing symptoms. The only reason infections haven't yet exploded is the low population density and the fact they have ca. 50 percent one person households.
RQ, what's your take on schools reopening next week?

There were reports yesterday that the Leopoldina will propose reopening schools for older students.
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Re: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)

Postby #12 » Sun Apr 12, 2020 6:29 pm

Dumbledore7 wrote:Where was I being condescending apart from when you deserved it?

If it's the liberal remark, then I take it back.
Partly yes... Also in other threads... I get that I sometimes deserve it but like I said, I didn’t consider that post overly emotional...
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Re: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)

Postby #12 » Sun Apr 12, 2020 6:38 pm

RedQueen wrote:
#12 wrote:
RedQueen wrote:@dumbledore7, IMO it's a reckless gamble putting peoples' lives at risk by making them involuntary subjects of a field experiment. I've seen at least three pandemic simulations that come to the conclusion that such a strategy is likely to lead into catastrophe.

They've also been operating under false assumptions, for instance that asymptomatic and presymptomatic patients are not infectious (including children, which is their reasoning for keeping the schools and kindergartens open). This has been proven false; almost half the patients were infected by people not or not yet showing symptoms. The only reason infections haven't yet exploded is the low population density and the fact they have ca. 50 percent one person households.
RQ, what's your take on schools reopening next week?

There were reports yesterday that the Leopoldina will propose reopening schools for older students.


Yeah... And I don’t want to neglect my duty... Thing is: I am part of the risk group (hypertension - now you get why I sometimes lose it in match threads )... And while I HAVE tenure, I haven’t had it for 5 years yet... Which means, in case I get this shit because they "force" me to work and spend the rest of my life unfit for service, I won’t get a single penny... So yeah, I think it’s fucked up that a 60yo healthy guy is considered a risk group while a chronically handicapped mid-30s guy's safety is out of the question...
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