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Re: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)

Postby ramsej84 » Wed May 20, 2020 12:16 pm

FCBayernMunchen wrote:
ramsej84 wrote:Cont from my last night's post....

Another 14 today in Malta...

The sit is getting serious again...

Meanwhile in South America it is getting precarious
Let’s wait for the conference so we can hear the details. ~26 cases (I heard 15 today) over the past 48 hours is a lot but now that we know more about the disease I am firmly of the belief that this number does not matter compared to the number of hospitalisations. So if none of these 26 were hospitalised it doesn’t really worry me. Who cares if we have a second wave if absolutely no one suffers seriously from the disease (i.e. 0 hospitalisations)?

It should now be up to people to decide whether they want to remain locked down or go out with social distancing rules. To me the number of cases over the past week is too high to go out unnecessarily, mainly because I am concerned about family members. To someone in a different situation it might be different. Objectively the risk is very low to most people so if they’re not at risk of passing it on to someone vulnerable they might as well go out.

We also don’t have much information about clusters yet, btw. For example 4 people in the same home who were quarantined and all got infected should really only count as 1, for risk/safety purposes.
I don't agree .... the numbers are increasing day by day.
More hC workers are getting infected and more elderly.
We are in the second wave .... even if the PM said that the waves are only in the sea.

I think and believe that he will revert the decision
U l-Kotra qamet f’daqqa – u għajtet: “Jien Maltija!
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U l-Kotra għanniet f’daqqa – u semmgħet ma’ l-irjieħ
L-Innu ta’ Malta tagħna, – u l-leħen kien rebbieħ,
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Re: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)

Postby FCBayernMunchen » Wed May 20, 2020 12:50 pm

16 of the 26 have zero symptoms. We ARE in the second wave. It doesn’t mean we should lock down.

The trend is clear. 98% of currently active cases worldwide are either mild or have no symptoms. If we are going to close down everything just because a small number of people are a little bit sick, we might as well close down forever.

It doesn’t make sense to base the decision just on number of active cases. It doesn’t matter that we found 26 cases over the past 48 hours if more than half of them are only sick on paper. Let’s face it, if we weren’t testing everyone for every little thing worldwide we wouldn’t even know there were 5 million cases because the vast majority wouldn’t even have realised they are sick or sought a doctor for their few symptoms. How does that justify keeping everything closed down?

It’s a disease where most patients only know they’re infected because they got tested and not because it had any effect on their health. Therefore why should we decide on the basis of active cases instead of severe cases? Malta has almost no patients in hospital, and none currently in need of intensive care.
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Re: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)

Postby ramsej84 » Wed May 20, 2020 1:09 pm

FCBayernMunchen wrote:16 of the 26 have zero symptoms. We ARE in the second wave. It doesn’t mean we should lock down.

The trend is clear. 98% of currently active cases worldwide are either mild or have no symptoms. If we are going to close down everything just because a small number of people are a little bit sick, we might as well close down forever.

It doesn’t make sense to base the decision just on number of active cases. It doesn’t matter that we found 26 cases over the past 48 hours if more than half of them are only sick on paper. Let’s face it, if we weren’t testing everyone for every little thing worldwide we wouldn’t even know there were 5 million cases because the vast majority wouldn’t even have realised they are sick or sought a doctor for their few symptoms. How does that justify keeping everything closed down?

It’s a disease where most patients only know they’re infected because they got tested and not because it had any effect on their health. Therefore why should we decide on the basis of active cases instead of severe cases? Malta has almost no patients in hospital, and none currently in need of intensive care.
Maybe to take care of our vulnerable people!?!
U l-Kotra qamet f’daqqa – u għajtet: “Jien Maltija!
Miskin min ikasbarni, - miskin min jidħak bija!”
U l-Kotra għanniet f’daqqa – u semmgħet ma’ l-irjieħ
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Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)

Postby FCBayernMunchen » Wed May 20, 2020 1:32 pm

ramsej84 wrote:
FCBayernMunchen wrote:16 of the 26 have zero symptoms. We ARE in the second wave. It doesn’t mean we should lock down.

The trend is clear. 98% of currently active cases worldwide are either mild or have no symptoms. If we are going to close down everything just because a small number of people are a little bit sick, we might as well close down forever.

It doesn’t make sense to base the decision just on number of active cases. It doesn’t matter that we found 26 cases over the past 48 hours if more than half of them are only sick on paper. Let’s face it, if we weren’t testing everyone for every little thing worldwide we wouldn’t even know there were 5 million cases because the vast majority wouldn’t even have realised they are sick or sought a doctor for their few symptoms. How does that justify keeping everything closed down?

It’s a disease where most patients only know they’re infected because they got tested and not because it had any effect on their health. Therefore why should we decide on the basis of active cases instead of severe cases? Malta has almost no patients in hospital, and none currently in need of intensive care.
Maybe to take care of our vulnerable people!?!
That makes even less sense. How does everyone staying inside instead of just vulnerable people staying inside make them safer?

This view - which is popular - is unprecedented. If a person is diabetic, it is up to them to eat properly. We don’t stop everyone else from eating those foods. People are responsible for their own health. If someone is vulnerable, they don’t have to go out just because it is possible to do so. It doesn’t make sense to ruin the lives of others long term in terms of economy and mental health among others, people who are at minimal risk, just because there are some who are at risk. You don’t need to impose severe restrictions on everyone to protect the vulnerable, just make restrictions adapted to them.

We already have one known death attributable to mental health issues as a result of Covid-19, btw. That’s not much less than we have deaths that are directly caused by Covid-19. Factor in the increase in loss of life resulting from people being afraid to go to hospital and yeah, the restrictions are probably killing more people than the virus.
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Re: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)

Postby Lukas » Wed May 20, 2020 1:40 pm

FCBayernMunchen wrote:
ramsej84 wrote:
FCBayernMunchen wrote:16 of the 26 have zero symptoms. We ARE in the second wave. It doesn’t mean we should lock down.

The trend is clear. 98% of currently active cases worldwide are either mild or have no symptoms. If we are going to close down everything just because a small number of people are a little bit sick, we might as well close down forever.

It doesn’t make sense to base the decision just on number of active cases. It doesn’t matter that we found 26 cases over the past 48 hours if more than half of them are only sick on paper. Let’s face it, if we weren’t testing everyone for every little thing worldwide we wouldn’t even know there were 5 million cases because the vast majority wouldn’t even have realised they are sick or sought a doctor for their few symptoms. How does that justify keeping everything closed down?

It’s a disease where most patients only know they’re infected because they got tested and not because it had any effect on their health. Therefore why should we decide on the basis of active cases instead of severe cases? Malta has almost no patients in hospital, and none currently in need of intensive care.
Maybe to take care of our vulnerable people!?!
That makes even less sense. How does everyone staying inside instead of just vulnerable people staying inside make them safer?

At some point this will have to be the strategy imo. Everyone staying inside just makes the whole situation worse economically. The trouble is in the uk, the elderly are too proud (some would say stubborn) and would not stand for being treated differently even if it’s for their own wellbeing
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Re: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)

Postby FCBayernMunchen » Wed May 20, 2020 1:49 pm

I edited my above post to elaborate more.^

The course of action in my opinion should be this:
- Start relieving as many measures as possible, BUT with conditions and restrictions. This is what we’re doing. We don’t simply reverse the clock to January but make sure there are measures in place to mitigate the risk, like masks. This way while the numbers will increase, it likely won’t be big enough to overwhelm the healthcare system.
- Keep lockdown measures in place for the vulnerable. Malta introduced these before later measures so I don’t know why everyone has an issue now.
- Pass a law that the first hour of opening for certain categories of shops is reserved solely for vulnerable customers.
- I would suggest reopening parks and gardens but with time slots reserved just for vulnerable people too, but I’m not sure if this might do more harm than good as the heat increases.
- When progress is made worldwide or towards a treatment/vaccine, start removing the measures still in place. Yes, this might mean the elderly are isolated for more than a year. It’s terrible, but I don’t see how isolating everyone for more than a year instead is any better.
- If the number of hospitalisations/severe cases starts increasing alarmingly, reimpose measures on the population as a whole quickly without much timewasting.

As things currently stand, if the number of hospitalised cases in Malta were to increase by 50 times we would still be in a comfortable position, assuming only 10% or less require intensive treatment (the worldwide rate is about 2% I believe).
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Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)

Postby FCBayernMunchen » Wed May 20, 2020 1:52 pm

Lukas wrote:At some point this will have to be the strategy imo. Everyone staying inside just makes the whole situation worse economically. The trouble is in the uk, the elderly are too proud (some would say stubborn) and would not stand for being treated differently even if it’s for their own wellbeing


Unfortunately it is the same here. (Most of our elderly would remember the British here well so we know who to blame. :P) I’ve seen people expressing anger that reopening restaurants came before allowing visits to the elderly which just goes to show many people haven’t understood why they’re social distancing.
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Re: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)

Postby Lukas » Wed May 20, 2020 3:46 pm

FCBayernMunchen wrote:
Lukas wrote:At some point this will have to be the strategy imo. Everyone staying inside just makes the whole situation worse economically. The trouble is in the uk, the elderly are too proud (some would say stubborn) and would not stand for being treated differently even if it’s for their own wellbeing


Unfortunately it is the same here. (Most of our elderly would remember the British here well so we know who to blame. :P) I’ve seen people expressing anger that reopening restaurants came before allowing visits to the elderly which just goes to show many people haven’t understood why they’re social distancing.

It sounds very similar :lol:

People here were expecting to be able to see elderly relatives as the first step out of the lockdown and were aghast when it wasn’t announced last week.
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Re: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)

Postby ramsej84 » Wed May 20, 2020 4:14 pm

It is normal with (all) elderly... they are all hard headed...
U l-Kotra qamet f’daqqa – u għajtet: “Jien Maltija!
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Re: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)

Postby FCBayernMunchen » Wed May 20, 2020 5:23 pm

Wuhan has banned the consumption of wild animals.
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Re: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)

Postby #12 » Wed May 20, 2020 5:54 pm

FCBayernMunchen wrote:16 of the 26 have zero symptoms. We ARE in the second wave. It doesn’t mean we should lock down.

The trend is clear. 98% of currently active cases worldwide are either mild or have no symptoms. If we are going to close down everything just because a small number of people are a little bit sick, we might as well close down forever.

It doesn’t make sense to base the decision just on number of active cases. It doesn’t matter that we found 26 cases over the past 48 hours if more than half of them are only sick on paper. Let’s face it, if we weren’t testing everyone for every little thing worldwide we wouldn’t even know there were 5 million cases because the vast majority wouldn’t even have realised they are sick or sought a doctor for their few symptoms. How does that justify keeping everything closed down?

It’s a disease where most patients only know they’re infected because they got tested and not because it had any effect on their health. Therefore why should we decide on the basis of active cases instead of severe cases? Malta has almost no patients in hospital, and none currently in need of intensive care.
Don’t agree with everything you say as it comes off a little too careless... But the conclusion is true, if the medical system does not get closer to it's limits, you needn‘t freeze public life... Still reason to be careful though - it’s not just old people...
Summer 2020: Hasan, show us your weakness!!
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Re: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)

Postby RedQueen » Wed May 20, 2020 6:18 pm

I don't know about the rest of the world, but in Germany 18 percent of the infected are being hospitalised. Studies indicate that approximately 20 percent are asymptomatic. In the Munich cluster, only one out of 16 was completely asymptomatic, and they were all young people, mostly in their 30s.

Depending on how the risk factors are defined, 30 to 50 percent of the adults belong to a risk group. You can't isolate everyone in a risk group. It means isolating at least 20m in Germany. This strategy has been discussed to death; maybe it's an option for a small country like Malta, for Germany it's simply not feasibly. Most likely it's also not an option for purely legal (constitutional) reasons.
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Re: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)

Postby ramsej84 » Wed May 20, 2020 6:41 pm

FCBayernMunchen wrote:Wuhan has banned the consumption of wild animals.
They had a vision from a celestial body
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Re: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)

Postby #12 » Wed May 20, 2020 6:42 pm

ramsej84 wrote:
FCBayernMunchen wrote:Wuhan has banned the consumption of wild animals.
They had a vision from a celestial body
Didn’t they already like a month ago?
Summer 2020: Hasan, show us your weakness!!
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Re: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)

Postby ramsej84 » Wed May 20, 2020 6:42 pm

#12 wrote:
FCBayernMunchen wrote:16 of the 26 have zero symptoms. We ARE in the second wave. It doesn’t mean we should lock down.

The trend is clear. 98% of currently active cases worldwide are either mild or have no symptoms. If we are going to close down everything just because a small number of people are a little bit sick, we might as well close down forever.

It doesn’t make sense to base the decision just on number of active cases. It doesn’t matter that we found 26 cases over the past 48 hours if more than half of them are only sick on paper. Let’s face it, if we weren’t testing everyone for every little thing worldwide we wouldn’t even know there were 5 million cases because the vast majority wouldn’t even have realised they are sick or sought a doctor for their few symptoms. How does that justify keeping everything closed down?

It’s a disease where most patients only know they’re infected because they got tested and not because it had any effect on their health. Therefore why should we decide on the basis of active cases instead of severe cases? Malta has almost no patients in hospital, and none currently in need of intensive care.
Don’t agree with everything you say as it comes off a little too careless... But the conclusion is true, if the medical system does not get closer to it's limits, you needn‘t freeze public life... Still reason to be careful though - it’s not just old people...
Thing is the we Maltese are not disciplined... we are not like you or the Swiss or the rest of the Northern Europe... we are Meds and the word discipline doesn't exist for us
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Miskin min ikasbarni, - miskin min jidħak bija!”
U l-Kotra għanniet f’daqqa – u semmgħet ma’ l-irjieħ
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