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Niklas Süle

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Re: Niklas Süle

Postby FCBayernMunchen » Wed Aug 05, 2020 7:45 pm

Can't see tweet? Click here!

If true: glad he’s gone.
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Re: Niklas Süle

Postby nm462272 » Mon Nov 02, 2020 12:08 pm

Des interessiert mi ois ned, der Scheißdreck. Weltmeister samma! Den Pott hamma! Den scheiß goldener Schuh kannst da hinter d’Ohr’n schmiern! - Mia San Mia

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Re: Niklas Süle

Postby ramsej84 » Mon Nov 02, 2020 12:26 pm

He was on playing last Sat...

All the best
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Re: Niklas Süle

Postby MUTU » Mon Nov 02, 2020 1:08 pm

An excuse for missing the internationals? He should be back after the international break and should only miss Salzburg and BVB.
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Re: Niklas Süle

Postby aterford » Thu Nov 05, 2020 4:19 pm

According to Sport Buzzer (Not sure about them tbh), Sule's test was also a false positive, somehow.

Which - in typical Bayern luck - probably means that we'll get the worst of both worlds and he'll miss Salzburg and BVB while being fit and ready to return for international matches. #-o
God Bless Thomas Müller
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Re: Niklas Süle

Postby ramsej84 » Thu Nov 05, 2020 4:20 pm

:evil: :evil: :evil: :evil: :evil: :evil: :evil: :evil: :evil: :evil: :evil: :evil: :evil:
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Re: Niklas Süle

Postby MUTU » Thu Nov 05, 2020 5:46 pm

aterford wrote:According to Sport Buzzer (Not sure about them tbh), Sule's test was also a false positive, somehow.

Which - in typical Bayern luck - probably means that we'll get the worst of both worlds and he'll miss Salzburg and BVB while being fit and ready to return for international matches. #-o

If it's really 1 in 10k that are false positives, then it's 1 in 100 million to get 2 false positives, albeit that's the chances of getting 2 false positives in a row. We don't know the total number of tests our team had.
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Re: Niklas Süle

Postby FCBayernMunchen » Thu Nov 05, 2020 6:09 pm

Crazy if true!
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Re: Niklas Süle

Postby aterford » Thu Nov 05, 2020 6:44 pm

MUTU wrote:
aterford wrote:According to Sport Buzzer (Not sure about them tbh), Sule's test was also a false positive, somehow.

Which - in typical Bayern luck - probably means that we'll get the worst of both worlds and he'll miss Salzburg and BVB while being fit and ready to return for international matches. #-o

If it's really 1 in 10k that are false positives, then it's 1 in 100 million to get 2 false positives, albeit that's the chances of getting 2 false positives in a row. We don't know the total number of tests our team had.


Yeah, that's really the x-factor.
If you figure everyone is getting tested daily, even just players that's probably 30 tests a day. And if that's happening at least 5x a week, that's 150 tests per week, and across 18 teams in the bundesliga that's 2700 tests per week. So provided that's all the case, I'd guess you'd expect one false positive per month, roughly. So when you look at it like that, it makes it seem *slightly* less unlikely, but still the odds of getting two at the same club in the span of a couple of weeks seems exceedingly rare
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Re: Niklas Süle

Postby MUTU » Thu Nov 05, 2020 6:45 pm

They're not getting tested daily as far as I know.
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Re: Niklas Süle

Postby aterford » Thu Nov 05, 2020 6:47 pm

I'll copy and paste this response from a friend of mine who posted it elsewhere. I can't independently attest for the veracity of the whole thing but it seems sensible enough for me:

PCR is being used as a screening rather than a diagnostic measure here since the players are regurlarly doing it while asymptomatic
Screening tests have SENSITIVITY and SPECIFICITY. What’s the difference? If you place the cut off point for defining a positive test pretty low, the likelihood of a false negative is is also low…ie will probably catch most/all cases. This means that the test is very sensitive at detecting disease. The downside of that is obvious, however. You will also have alot of false positives.
This is also true in reverse. If I use a high cut off point to define a case, I will probably get alot of false negatives as they will not fit my very strict definition of a positive case, but very few false positives ie the test is very specific.
This sounds confusing, but is better understood with an example. The cut off point for defining diabetes using fasting blood sugar is 7mmol/L.
If I decide to lower the cut off point to 6 (ie make the test more sensitive but less specific), I can expect to hardly miss a case. I will catch them all perhaps! But, the downside is I will probably also label alot of nondiabetics as diabetic (have alot of false positives). On the other hand, if I put the cut off point for defining a positive test at 9 (ie make the test more specific but less sensitive), then I can be sure that anyone that comes with a fasting blood sugar of 9 is probably diabetic (false positives are low), but I will also end up missing alot of true diabetics by placing such a high cut off point (false negatives are high).

Ideally, a test would have the best cut off point where you can balance between its sensitivity and specificity.
Unfortunately, this shit is not done yet.
You also have something called the "positive predictive value (PPV)" and something else called the "negative predictive value (NPV)". These answer whether or not you can trust someone’s positive test (trust a pos test if the PPV is high) or negative test (trust a neg test if the NPV is high). The sensitivity and specificity of a test are always fixed, but the PPV and NPV are not and they depend on the person’s likelihood of having the disease ("pretest probability") & also the test’s own sensitivity/specificity. The PPV is high if the pretest probability is high and the specificity of the test is high. The NPV is high if the pretest probability is low and the test sensitivity is high.

Now, back to Süle and PCR
PCR for COVID has a sensitivity and a specificity of >95%.
But the pretest probability of having Covid here is very low. The players are asymptomatic and one can assume that they also have no risk factors for covid (ie they are wearing their masks, not going about in crowded closed areas, Germany as a whole has less cases than the US, etc).
The low pretest probability will lower the PPV. This means that you may not necessarily trust a positive test. It will also make it so that a negative test is very trustworthy.
Some examples and math help demonstrate all these points, but I think that may take things way too far.

Now, you may ask: if we cannot necessarily trust a positive test, then why does Süle have to self isolate etc? BECAUSE IT’S A VERY CONTAGIOUS DISEASE, WE ARE IN A GLOBAL PANDEMIC, AND WE OUGHT NOT TO TAKE ANY RISKS!

If I were to put this in another way….
PCR has about an 0.8% false pos here for covid.
In a general population, if I screen 1000 assympatomatic individuals, the latest figures say about 1 will be a true positive.
With a false positive rate of 0.8%, that works out to 8 false positives in 1000. So I will end up with a total of 9 positive tests, only 1 of which actually has the disease (so 88.88% of my positive tests are false positives!!!!.

That’s also why testing is not recommended for random asymptomatic individuals in the population.
The situation would be totally different if I was testing someone who was a close contact to a known case. In this case, the pretest probability would be high and you can trust a positive test.
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Re: Niklas Süle

Postby Evan van Essen » Thu Nov 05, 2020 8:29 pm

With quicker test the margines of flase positives is higher thats likely why there are more false positives i reckon. But dont they do like a propper test after someone tests positive for a quick test?

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Re: Niklas Süle

Postby ramsej84 » Thu Nov 05, 2020 8:41 pm

MUTU wrote:
aterford wrote:According to Sport Buzzer (Not sure about them tbh), Sule's test was also a false positive, somehow.

Which - in typical Bayern luck - probably means that we'll get the worst of both worlds and he'll miss Salzburg and BVB while being fit and ready to return for international matches. #-o

If it's really 1 in 10k that are false positives, then it's 1 in 100 million to get 2 false positives, albeit that's the chances of getting 2 false positives in a row. We don't know the total number of tests our team had.
Someone trying to sabotage our tm with all these false tests
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Re: Niklas Süle

Postby MUTU » Tue Nov 10, 2020 1:16 pm

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Re: Niklas Süle

Postby MUTU » Mon Nov 16, 2020 6:18 pm

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