FC Bayern Forum

sch0ll7 wrote:Same shit different year...we always have few most important players injured in the final stages of the season. Last few years...Ribery, Robben, Thiago, Schweini...and now Alaba, Neuer, Vidal...while other top clubs like Real and Barca always get away with injuries at the end of the season.

And do you think it's purely down to luck? I don't want to point fingers at a specific factor, but I don't think we can keep playing the "unlucky" card anymore given it happens every single time.

sch0ll7 wrote:

MUTU wrote:

sch0ll7 wrote:Same shit different year...we always have few most important players injured in the final stages of the season. Last few years...Ribery, Robben, Thiago, Schweini...and now Alaba, Neuer, Vidal...while other top clubs like Real and Barca always get away with injuries at the end of the season.

And do you think it's purely down to luck? I don't want to point fingers at a specific factor, but I don't think we can keep playing the "unlucky" card anymore given it happens every single time.

Yeah probably just luck..or our players getting too excited for the big matches and then get injured at training...I mean wtf...even Bale is fit for this match! But at least Ribery and Robben will play in the semis after God knows how many years.

If there was a means to produce probabilities for this happening every time you'd find out that the chance is so low that it simply cannot realistically be luck.

MUTU wrote:

sch0ll7 wrote:

MUTU wrote:[quote="sch0ll7"]Same shit different year...we always have few most important players injured in the final stages of the season. Last few years...Ribery, Robben, Thiago, Schweini...and now Alaba, Neuer, Vidal...while other top clubs like Real and Barca always get away with injuries at the end of the season.

And do you think it's purely down to luck? I don't want to point fingers at a specific factor, but I don't think we can keep playing the "unlucky" card anymore given it happens every single time.

Yeah probably just luck..or our players getting too excited for the big matches and then get injured at training...I mean wtf...even Bale is fit for this match! But at least Ribery and Robben will play in the semis after God knows how many years.

If there was a means to produce probabilities for this happening every time you'd find out that the chance is so low that it simply cannot realistically be luck.[/quote]

So what are you implying? I mean, you can talk about the medical department when it comes to how long they are out maybe, but last I checked Alaba has never been tackled by Mull...

Rafinha has been performing even better than Alaba tbh

BUT that's been 2 games. Playing against Real Madrid is a very different story and If Rafinha goes back to his old self we would be screwed

#12 wrote:So what are you implying? I mean, you can talk about the medical department when it comes to how long they are out maybe, but last I checked Alaba has never been tackled by Mull...

I'm not implying anything. I can think of multiple factors, the most obvious of which is the medical department (which is a joke when you compare that to the likes of RB Leipzig's and Hoffenheim's in terms of preparation, or to the likes of Barcelona in terms of comeback lengths), but also a few other factors:

1. the Bundesliga factor: either the intensity of the match, the hard tackling, or I don't know... the weather (?) somehow cause Bundesliga players to get injured more frequently. I once made an analysis of the top 5 leagues and there were clearly and consistently far more injured players in the Bundesliga (both in quantity and in average man days out injured) than any other top 5 league.
2. Perhaps the training grounds and/or training intensity/methods. In fact, this was the scapegoat after Guardiola left.
3. The pride: when we rest players, we never overdo it. Fans won't accept to see a B or a C team on the pitch. It's not the first time that sporting success in Germany was impeded by fans' ideals (case in point, 50+1 and the looooong time it took for Germans to finally accept professionalism in football), so this is also a factor.
4. The DFL scheduling doesn't help. Case in point, Real Madrid will have a whole week to rest. Oftenly, other football associations postponed league matches of our opponents that fell between the 1st and 2nd legs so as to help them, or at least rescheduled their matches for the Friday before the match giving them an extra day. In Germany, they don't do this (refer to the previous point).

Addendum: Regarding point 1, I'd like to point out at the irony of this because Bundesliga clubs play fewer matches per season on average than the other top 5 leagues, which means that on average they have more time to rest between matches, so logic dictates that the number of injuries should be less not more.

Whatever it is, it's definitely beyond luck.

Mavs wrote:Of course it can be luck/bad luck.

The sample size is small.

Or would you say that flipping a coin and getting heads three times in a row "can't be luck?"

That's not statistically correct.

First off, a fair coin gives a 50% chance. When you look at other clubs playing in the QFs onwards, I believe less than half of them are missing crucial players.

Secondly, it's happened far more than three times in a row. Probably closer to 10.

MUTU wrote:

Mavs wrote:Of course it can be luck/bad luck.

The sample size is small.

Or would you say that flipping a coin and getting heads three times in a row "can't be luck?"

That's not statistically correct.

First off, a fair coin gives a 50% chance. When you look at other clubs playing in the QFs onwards, I believe less than half of them are missing crucial players.

Secondly, it's happened far more than three times in a row. Probably closer to 10.

10? No... It appears you’re including suspensions - or that you just don’t remember properly, probably for emotional reasons...

Also, I could tell you something about "top teams" and their ability to neat other top teams in the range of 50%

Give him some horse placenta and acupuncture and he'll be good to go in no time!

#12 wrote:

MUTU wrote:

Mavs wrote:Of course it can be luck/bad luck.

The sample size is small.

Or would you say that flipping a coin and getting heads three times in a row "can't be luck?"

That's not statistically correct.

First off, a fair coin gives a 50% chance. When you look at other clubs playing in the QFs onwards, I believe less than half of them are missing crucial players.

Secondly, it's happened far more than three times in a row. Probably closer to 10.

10? No... It appears you’re including suspensions - or that you just don’t remember properly, probably for emotional reasons...

Also, I could tell you something about "top teams" and their ability to neat other top teams in the range of 50%

It's 10.

2008-09: we played against Barcelona in the QFs missing Lahm, Lucio and Van Buyten. We played with a backline of Lell, Breno, Demichelis and Oddo (IIRC).
2009-10: In the group stage, we were missing Ribery in the crucial last match away to Juventus in which we needed to win, while Robben had just recovered from injury and was not fit enough to start.
2010-11: we were missing important players in defence in both legs against Inter. Breno ended up playing in both matches.
2011-12: Ribery got injured during the final. He'd possibly have taken THAT penalty instead of Robben, or at least one in the shootout.
2012-13: Kroos and Badstuber.
2013-14: Thiago and Badstuber.
2014-15: Almost too many to mention, but particularly Ribery and Robben.
2015-16: Robben, Ribery and Alaba.
2016-17: Hummels and Lewandowski (and to an extent also Boateng).
2017-18: Neuer, Alaba, Vidal and Coman.

€10 if you can name one single club that had at least half the injuries to crucial players in crucial matches as Bayern did in the same timeframe.

sch0ll7 wrote:

MUTU wrote:€10 if you can name one single club that had at least half the injuries to crucial players in crucial matches as Bayern did in the same timeframe.

Arsenal:) you know my Paypal acc:p

Count them. And only mention injuries to crucial players in crucial matches don't forget