FC Bayern Forum

[MUTU]

Look yesterday the Germans had a lot of scoring chances, not comparable to Bayern of late. There were three one-on-ones alone and you expect them to score multiple goals from the chances they had against Netherlands. So what is the problem? Why can't players who play for different clubs having different training suddenly cannot hit the side of a barn if their lives depended on it? I really cannot understand why.

Not really:



Gomez retired, btw., and Reus and Goretzka are injured.

11tegen11, the guy who makes tactical analysis of Dutch football. Hardly an unbiased source, eh? There were three one-on-ones which weren't scored, all 3 for Germany. Werner, Mueller and Sane. Draxler could've scored one or two himself too. If Germany hadn't been missing their chances all match, those terrible last 5 minutes wouldn't have happened.

[MUTU]

Germany in the last 5 competitive games since the start of the World cup:

107 shots
32 on target
2 goals scored

See that right there is the problem. Bayern and Germany don't have finishers.

In Gomez's last season for Bayern he scored 1 goal every 3.45 shots.

If these 107 shots had been taken by the Gomez that Bayern sold to Fiorentina, Germany would have scored 31 goals instead of 2. Let that sink in for a while.

Addendum: yesterday Germany took 15 shots (to Netherlands' 13)... with that Gomez rate they'd have scored 4.34 goals.

[#12]

Yeah right, cause soccer is about maths all the time...
Every fucking change of wind is considered a shot these days...
Both lack MUCH more than just a finisher, that’s WAY too simplified

[ramsej84]

If I was appointed head coach, this would be my first formation:

It was promising until I saw that last Surname

[ramsej84]

Julian Draxler: "The big question is why we can not manage to play attractive football again with the personnel we have. We are far too slow and predictable"

Germany in the last 5 competitive games since the start of the World cup:

107 shots
32 on target
2 goals scored

Can't see tweet? Click here!

Kudos to those brave fans up there... they should have done more though

[RedQueen]

@MUTU
Somehow I doubt they're changing a model they run day in, day out just for that game. Honestly, there's much to argue about xG analysis, but that's a ridiculous comment.

[MUTU]

If I was appointed head coach, this would be my first formation:

It was promising until I saw that last Surname

Well better than playing Uth (who hasn't scored a single goal this season). Gomez's goals-per-90 is still higher than Werner, Uth and Volland.

[MUTU]

@MUTU
Somehow I doubt they're changing a model they run day in, day out just for that game. Honestly, there's much to argue about xG analysis, but that's a ridiculous comment.

Why is it? At the end of the day they judge the magnitude of a chance. There's human judgement involved, and even then while it was 1-0 it was super close, then in the last 5 mins Germany went all out attacking and conceded 2 goals (which could've been 3). If Germany had capitalised on the chances they had before (even Dutch buddy 11tegen11 agrees it should've been 1-1 up to that point), Germany wouldn't have opened up the back the way they did. A draw would have been more than fair.

Please don't tell me 14 shots (up to that point) including 3 one-on-ones and 1-2 penalties that should've been awarded weren't enough to score the 1-1.

[ramsej84]

My team would be this.

Ter Stegen

Kimmich Sule Hummels Max

Goretzka Kroos


Gnabry. Brandt. Sane

Werner

Or...

Brandt RW Sane LW with Gnabry partnering Werner in a 4.4.2- formation

[RedQueen]

@MUTU
Somehow I doubt they're changing a model they run day in, day out just for that game. Honestly, there's much to argue about xG analysis, but that's a ridiculous comment.

Why is it? At the end of the day they judge the magnitude of a chance. There's human judgement involved, and even then while it was 1-0 it was super close, then in the last 5 mins Germany went all out attacking and conceded 2 goals (which could've been 3). If Germany had capitalised on the chances they had before (even Dutch buddy 11tegen11 agrees it should've been 1-1 up to that point), Germany wouldn't have opened up the back the way they did. A draw would have been more than fair.

Please don't tell me 14 shots (up to that point) including 3 one-on-ones and 1-2 penalties that should've been awarded weren't enough to score the 1-1.

Penalties that should have been awarded aren't part of an xG-calculation, no matter who runs the calculation. 1 vs 1s are not counted if they don't result in a shot. As I said, there's a lot that can be said against xG analysis, but that doesn't depend on the analyst.

If there's so much human judgement involved, I wonder why the xG results are almost the same after each game for different analysts. Can't find xG results on NEDGER anywhere else, unfortunately.

In any case, to get back to the game - not even Löw says finishing is the only problem. It's pretty much only Hummels who claims that.

[MUTU]

^ Check the xG for the last Bayern matches, especially the last one. They vary by a lot.

Of course finishing is not the only problem, but it's the biggest one.
Take Germany 6-0 Norway. Germany had 19 shots (4 more than yesterday)
Germany 5-1 Azerbaijan, 18 shots (3 more than yesterday)

[America USA]

Of the old guard I’d only keep the following:
- Neuer: He gets a bit of equity because he’s just returning from a very long potentially career ending injury. However, he can no longer remain a guaranteed starter with Ter Stegen breathing down his neck. I’d retain him with the NT but he has to earn the starting spot with good performances at Bayern.

- Kroos: I’d play him with a defensive midfielder in a pass master role like Pirlo or as an AM in the 4231 formation. His immaculate passing ability is the only thing I would retain him in the NT for.

- Hummels: Sadly he’s declining too. However, I’d want a slight bit of experience in the defense. Plus I think him pairing with catastrophe Boateng is not helping whatsoever.

- Reus: When fit he’s a match winner. Plus he hasn’t won anything with the NT so his motivation levels despite his status as a “senior” are higher than the three guys mentioned above. Whenever he’s playing consistently for Dortmund he’s their best offensive player. I’d like to retain a player of his prowess with the NT.

- Stindl: Yes he’s 30 but Gomez was older at this WC. I think he’s a very useful and super hungry player. He can pair upfront with Werner (like he did so well at the Confederations Cup) or Gnabry with Brandt, Reus and Sane in support. I hope he can find good form with Monchengladbach and is recalled by the NT.

However, even then Euro 2020 has to be the final tournament for all five of them. Euro 2020 should be a mix of 75% Youth and 25% Experience but after that all the 30 and above players have to be moved on to rejuvenate the NT.

[Ed.]

I find Ballack to be a fantastic commentator. There is always some unique insight or analysis he brings to the table but what he said about DFB's handling of Low before this game was just common sense.

The DFB saying post WC, we stick with Low but will do some analysis is bullshit and no analysis at all as Ballack said.
Anyway, the guy also stuck his hands down his groin and smelt the retrieved objectionable goods yet again. He simply has to be fired for this despicable behavior alone. If he behaves like this knowing full well cameras are on him, one shudders to think what he does in the privacy of his home.

[sherpthederp]

The last time they played good football was the confederations cup, where Löw did something brilliant and shuffled his entire squad, playing a young aggressive 352 with Kimmich and Brandt as wingbacks. Fast forward 2 years and the play is old and stagnant. Why not go back to what worked the last time they put in a good performance??? Dump anyone over 27 and go young hungry and fast...

[America USA]

I don’t think “dumping anyone over 27” will fix this train wreck. First and foremost the driver of the Locomotive-Löw-has to be fired.

Re: Guys over 27, as I’ve said earlier on this thread, only a few from the 28 and above age group should be considered for the NT from now on and like everyone else their selection too must be based on merit and not some “loyalty and trust” emotional bullshit!