FC Bayern Forum

[endrity]

Khedira alwyas seemed to be under threat yet he's been a key performer for Germany in every tournament. He depends a lot on his athleticism and next year might very well be the last tournament for him but I expect him to at least make the squad. Gundogan, Goretzka, Can, Dahoud have to all have great and healthy seasons to keep him out. Right now Goretzka might be poised to challenge him for a starting position but I'd say Khedira is still favourite.

If healthy, Boa starts alongside Hummels. Simple as that. Those two are light years ahead of anybody else.

Hector seems like he does his job well and there really is no outstanding competition for him.

The forward spots are a bit difficult to predict. Some of the older stars are not in the greatest moment of their career like Ozil and Muller. Sane and Draxler are rising up. Werner has to be a favorite for the starting striker position. I'd still say Muller and Ozil probably play alongside him though with Draxler being the favorite for the left wing, in a 4-2-3-1.

The big mystery to me is Reus. If he is healthy, he plays. This might be controversial here, but I still think Reus is best talent of the current generation, at least on the offensive department. But the chances of him being healthy seem a bit low right now.

[America USA]

^ Did you see the CL final? Kroos and Modric ran rings around Khedira in the midfield. They absolutely dominated Sami and Pjanic in the midfield and that's why the second half was so one sided. Sami legitimately looks done at the top level. If guys like Can, Goretzka, Gundogan and Arnold have good seasons then I don't see how Sami gets to partner Kroos in the midfield.

Since last World Cup Jerome has had several moments which have cost his team the match. In 2015 Messi made him look like a clown, in 2016 he was at fault for Griezzmann away goal and in 2017 he should have done better to prevent Ronaldo's first goal in the second QF at the Bernabeu. Then he had that brain fart in Euro 2016 against Italy. Jerome is great but he's kinda more error prone now than he was back in 2014.

Ozil might still make it to the squad if he has a good season with Arsenal and might even start for Germany if he leads Arsenal to the EL and a PL title race. Ozil is assured of play time in London. Unfortunately for Müller he is not assured of game time in Munich. He may or may not be a regular starter for Bayern in the upcoming season. Things don't look good for him with Sane and Brandt emerging as serious contenders. He needs to have a great season with Bayern to make his case. I don't think his spot in the starting eleven is guaranteed at this point in time.

As for Reus, picking him ahead of hardworking players like Draxler would not be fair. The only way Reus makes it to Russia is if and only if he is 100% fit and has a good season with Dortmund. His selection has to be on form and not reputation. And as much as I despise Leipzig, I hope Werner has a wonderful season with them.

I'd go as far as to say that even Neuer has some competition from Ter Stegan after the Confed Cup. Which is good! Everyone has to be on their toes.

[endrity]

Sami was a key player for Juve durign the season, even more important for them than Pjanic was. They were simply outnumbered in the final, Kroos, Modric, Casemiro and Isco were finding each other much more easily. On the other hand, Dani Alves and Dybala, the players that had to come inside and support the midfield were completely lost. Sami was not losing physical battles, him and Pjanic simply had no one to pass the ball to. Look, I'd love for Goretzka to be ready to partner Kroos as a starter, he adds a technical dimension that Sami doesn't have. But he has to have a great season. The rest of the pack, have even more to prove.

I saw Jerome in March 2017, him and Hummels played at the Bernabeu injured and were outstanding. They of course need to be healthy, but when they are, they are still a level above anybody else in defense for Germany. Rudiger, Sule, Tah have all been much more error prone, Kempf and Stark are way too young, and don't get me started on Mustafi.

Neuer too is way ahead of anybody right now. The challengers have to fight for #2 right now.

I guess I need to see some stats, but my impression is that Reus is an incredibly hard worker, much more than Draxler. His commitment to pressing is incredible. It's even more remarkable that he seems to come back without any loss of form for Dortmund and immediately lifts them to another level. I don't know if he will be ready after another serious injury, and I know that at this point relying on him is more wishful than realistic. However, theoretically, if he's healthy and playing like he was this season, to me he's still the best German offensive player of this generation. Prior to the 2014 WC I genuinely believed that he could challenge for a Ballon D'Or, and he might have had he played in the tournament.

[Dumbledore7]

If everyone's fit, I don't think this is disputable. I like Khedira too but I don't know who to drop from that lineup for him. Goretzka is deserving of a shout too, whether in the double pivot or further forward.

However I think we're more likely to see Müller-Özil-Draxler.

[MUTU]

Not disputable?! Where is El Torero?

[Dumbledore7]

The fuck is wrong with the BBcode?

[JANCKER]

.

[MUTU]

The **** is wrong with the BBcode?

Don't use unicode characters or long dashes.

[endrity]

If everyone's fit, I don't think this is disputable. I like Khedira too but I don't know who to drop from that lineup for him. Goretzka is deserving of a shout too, whether in the double pivot or further forward.

However I think we're more likely to see Müller-Özil-Draxler.

Gundogan is not the 2013 player anymore. He already has lost quite a bit of the explosiveness and mobility that made him truly special and now he will come back from an ACL injury. And the team needs a more mobile player alongside Kroos. If he is healthy, he is probably the backup to Toni rather than his partner.

Also, not quite sure on the Draxler v. Ozil comparison. Julian might be ready to take over next summer, but Mesut is not done either.

[America USA]

I just had a weird thought that what happens if Neuer is adversely affected by this foot injury? What if he's never the same player again? It has happened to many players in the past. He was outstanding in the QF against Real Madrid and I hope that he comes back as the Neuer we all know.
Therefore, I won't have a problem with him taking an extended leave to let his foot heal completely, and also let him spend some more time with his wife. Being with loved ones makes you happy and that happy mental state surely helps to deal with tough times like an injury.

Reus has to have a good season if he wants to be in the WC squad. I'd love to see what an in form and fit front three of Reus-Özil-Müller could do with Werner as CF.

Also,

I saw Jerome in March 2017, him and Hummels played at the Bernabeu injured and were outstanding. They of course need to be healthy, but when they are, they are still a level above anybody else in defense for Germany. Rudiger, Sule, Tah have all been much more error prone, Kempf and Stark are way too young, and don't get me started on Mustafi.

I like how you totally ignored what I said about his errors in 2015,2016 and the Euros.
Age also should not be a huge factor. If a player is good he should play. Remember how young Boateng was he he got his chance. Let's not hold age against some of the younger guys.

[YlonenXabi]

Well, it's easy to downgrade a CB remarking is errors. You could say the same about ANY CB in the world

Funny that you talk about his mistake against Atletico in 2016. He was rushed back because we needed to win the 2nd leg and he was one of the main reasons why we totally destoyed them in the first 45 minutes (just remember how SH!T our performance in the first leg was). Had Müller scored that penalty, the scoreline would have probably been 4-0 or similar. But that's football.


Unless he gets badly injured, something that I wouldn't rule out tbh, he is 100% making the squad for Russia and should start along Hummels if both are fit.

[MUTU]

I just had a weird thought that what happens if Neuer is adversely affected by this foot injury? What if he's never the same player again? It has happened to many players in the past. He was outstanding in the QF against Real Madrid and I hope that he comes back as the Neuer we all know.
Therefore, I won't have a problem with him taking an extended leave to let his foot heal completely, and also let him spend some more time with his wife. Being with loved ones makes you happy and that happy mental state surely helps to deal with tough times like an injury.

Reus has to have a good season if he wants to be in the WC squad. I'd love to see what an in form and fit front three of Reus-Özil-Müller could do with Werner as CF.

Also,

I saw Jerome in March 2017, him and Hummels played at the Bernabeu injured and were outstanding. They of course need to be healthy, but when they are, they are still a level above anybody else in defense for Germany. Rudiger, Sule, Tah have all been much more error prone, Kempf and Stark are way too young, and don't get me started on Mustafi.

I like how you totally ignored what I said about his errors in 2015,2016 and the Euros.
Age also should not be a huge factor. If a player is good he should play. Remember how young Boateng was he he got his chance. Let's not hold age against some of the younger guys.

Re Neuer I would be more worried had he injured his arms.

[Manchu]

I've done a little work than might be helpful in deciding which players should be selected for the world cup.

You see, for a while I've been interested in pre-assist data. A pre-assist is the pass before an assist. You can read a wonderful article about why they're important here.

Just to help explain why pre-assists are important, under conventional reasoning Messi would receive no credit(neither goal nor assist) for this goal, Mario Gotze would receive no credit for this goal and Lewandowski would receive no credit for this goal.

Unfortunately, as far as I can tell, pre-assist data is publicly unavailable and perhaps even privately unavailable. Therefore, I decided to collect pre-assist data for all German goals scored during the Confederations Cup as exercise and compile with goal and assist data from the same competition, using the principle that if a player pre-assisted their own goal, I would only count their contribution to the goal once. I was primarily interested in how it affected how contribution to goals is perceived. Here are my results:


Unfortunately, the time that the players played was very limited, so there are firm limits to what can be drawn, especially since so many players managed only 1 GC. However, it can be said that Draxler under performed, that Werner, Stindl, and Goretza all performed well, and that Brandt's distribution of the ball in the final third was excellent(he played less than one full game but managed 4 GC).

[YlonenXabi]

Unless you are not couting Penalty Goals, Draxler should have 3 instead of 2 in Goal Contribution

[Manchu]

Unless you are not couting Penalty Goals, Draxler should have 3 instead of 2 in Goal Contribution

I'm not counting penalty goals because, from a purely statistical standpoint, it's clear that penalty goals should be counted separately from non-penalty goals. After all, the penalty taker is literally being handed a ~75% chance of scoring and often was not involved at all in the play which won the penalty(our own problem with not having reliable non-Lewandowksi penalty takers are rather unique). That being said, I did give Goretzka an assist for winning the penalty and Stindl a pre-assist for playing the through ball to Goretzka.

Of course, what I really want is pre-assist numbers for the Top 5 European Leagues because I want to see how the pre-assist numbers of "midfield attackers" like Mesut Ozil, Max Meyer, Julian Brandt, Thomas Muller, Mario Gotze, etc, compare to the pre-assist numbers of "pure attackers" like Reus, Draxler, Sane, etc. My suspicion is that many players in the former category are actually somewhat underrated.