FC Bayern Forum

Well, there's always room for a little conspiracy

This is actually one of the cases that makes me think it's too weird for someone to actually invent this

Oh, surprise!

I didn't have the time to read up too many articles, as I was on the road almost all day... so maybe I'm just missing some important things, and someone can clear it up for me.

Some reports brought this up already. The Northrhine Westphalia minister said the suspect got a consumer credit of 79,000 EUR. According to Spiegel the man is a 28 year old electrician who works in a heating plant in Tübingen. What kind of bank grants a 28 year old electrician a 79,000 EUR consumer credit? A consumer credit, not a real estate mortgage or a business loan. Even with a zero interest rate, if he pays back 500 EUR a month (which looks to me like a substantial sum for a 28 year old electrician) the payback period is 13 years. And we're in Germany, banks tend to be a bit on the conservative side here.

Then, according to Wirtschaftswoche (linked above) he only placed options for 8,000 EUR (what did he do with the rest of the money?). They calculate a maximum profit of less than 3,000 EUR if the BVB stock drops by 4 percent, given their observations of the financial market at the date in question. Who's going through that kind of trouble for 3,000 EUR? The hotel stay in Dortmund would have cost 1,000 EUR alone. Even if the stock thoroughly crashes and drops by 40 percent, we're talking about less than 30,000 EUR, unless I'm missing something?

Couple of questions about the MO, too. Until yesterday, it was reported that the bombs detonated 1 second "too late" to cause more serious trouble. Now reports are he placed one of the bombs a meter too high. He seems to be quite smart and utterly stupid at the same time. He knows enough about financial markets to place leveraged put-options (not common knowledge for an electrician) and he's capable of putting together expertly built bombs. But he orders the options on the internet using the hotel network, and apparently hasn't bothered to hide the IP. Details about the booking (four days around each quarterfinal date, request that the room has to have a window towards the streetside, and why did he book a room in the team hotel to begin with?) make him look very clumsy. On top of it, in the middle of the post-attack chaos, he draws attention by calmly enjoying a massage and ordering a steak. We have conflicting reports whether he said something when he was arrested or not... Just some things that immediately stood out when I read a few reports; but as I said, I really didn't have much time and maybe I just missed the answers.

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The way I understood it he got the credit from multiple institutions - at least that's what the Bundesanwaltschaft announced publicy...

I have no idea about that whole steak episode, but he needed that room and the street view because the explosives were detonated through a remote detonator...
The options- no idea, I knew this was possible ever since 9/11...
As for his expert knowledge on bombs, apparently building a detonator is not a problem for an electrician (no idea?) and they're still investigating about partners...
This is overall not enough for me to yell "conspiracy " - but I think since he's Russian the whole "foreign intelligence" is probably not off the table...

Either way, neither IS MO, nor did they claim it

Why does he have to be in the hotel room to detonate these bombs? Any place outside would be possible, too. Using the hotel network for the financial transactions sounds beyond stupid.

79,000 EUR from different institutions? I'm not familiar with Schufa in detail, but AFAIK such transactions are registered there. That consumer credit is the most puzzling part of the reports for me.

There's no need to cry "conspiracy theorist!" the minute someone takes a closer look at what is reported. I didn't mention anything about a conspiracy.

Neither did I say you were... Just given the history this case unrolled here on the forum - and elsewhere - I felt obliged to point it out

I honestly cannot answer your questions though since I did not read up enough of/on it...

No idea what he makes but I recently had an appointment with my financial consultant - and I'd most likely get it... I myself am more puzzled how he got hold of military explosive equipment...

RedQueen wrote: He seems to be quite smart and utterly stupid at the same time. He knows enough about financial markets to place leveraged put-options (not common knowledge for an electrician) and he's capable of putting together expertly built bombs. But he orders the options on the internet using the hotel network, and apparently hasn't bothered to hide the IP. Details about the booking (four days around each quarterfinal date, request that the room has to have a window towards the streetside, and why did he book a room in the team hotel to begin with?) make him look very clumsy. On top of it, in the middle of the post-attack chaos, he draws attention by calmly enjoying a massage and ordering a steak. We have conflicting reports whether he said something when he was arrested or not... Just some things that immediately stood out when I read a few reports; but as I said, I really didn't have much time and maybe I just missed the answers.

This is what I find so strange. It's perhaps not the best plan in the world (as you said, it seems like the maximum potential for profit is not terribly high), but appears at least well-thought out and seems to make sense on paper. Stock drops, cash out, profit, okay. It's certainly not a common get-rich scheme, as best I can tell....
That being said, for all the planning and whatnot....How could he possibly think he wouldn't get caught? Red flags all over. Like you said, he seems smart but apparently looked right over a number of common-sense issues.

@RedQueen: if you're still interested/haven't read it yet: Bildblog is dealing with contradictions in media coverage about the attack...

Thanks for that link. Not that it makes the whole thing more plausible... rather the contrary.

Well, at least that the loan was probably only half of what was known at first and that the one-second-too-late-theory was BLÖD's doing...

Guy is denying all charges according to Spiegel...

#12 wrote:Guy is denying all charges according to Spiegel...

This whole situation is very bizarre, to say the least, but I wouldn't put too much weight behind this fact... anyone accused of wrongdoing will plead their innocence