FC Bayern Forum

#12 wrote:Of course they would... My argument is still Bundesliga... Bar PSG, they all face better teams and are not that far ahead in quality!

Yeah, that's only half-true at the moment TBH. At the moment this season per 538 there's still five Bundesliga teams in the top-20 teams in the world. According to UEFA there's four. That's compared to six (538) or five (UEFA) EPL clubs, five (538) or five (UEFA) La Liga clubs, and three (538) or three (UEFA) Serie A clubs in the top-20. And the BL was 2nd in league coefficient last season, currently third.

I suppose one could argue that the bottom-half teams in other leagues are better than the bottom-half BL teams, but at that point the argument would then basically shift to claiming that Liverpool/Barca/Juve etc are better than Bayern because Fulham and Newcastle and Cagliari and Parma and Eibar and Elche are better than Bielefeld and Mainz and etc and...that's not really much of an argument, is it?

That's not to claim that the Bundesliga is *better* than the PL or La Liga (it *is* better than Serie A, though) nor is it even necessarily to claim that it is "not worse" - but the notion that Liverpool and Barca and Juve would be better off right now if they were playing in the Bundesliga doesn't really hold any water. And of course it completely ignores the fact that they've all been demonstrably worse in the UCL than we have, which naturally has little-to-nothing to do with each team's respective domestic league.

#12 wrote:I do not watch them all the time but I saw Liverpool ridicule the team that we will yet again not beat this season and that will best us if things don’t take a quick turn...

Liverpool ridiculed Leipzig? Are you sure you actually watched that match, too? Leipzig gifted them two stupid goals and missed a dozen chances of their own. If you played that same match 100 times, Leipzig would've won it 75 at worst. They were not inferior to Liverpool, in spite of the less-than-flattering scoreline. They came out ahead on xG and most all analytics!

#12 wrote:Last year, we were on the rise, this year, we are in a downward spiral... Literally, we are continually getting worse, because we cannot even score a lot anymore with the defense at least not improving...

It’s nit just this season that dips in form and crises occur and both is fine... my point is results overshadow that our poor form has been going on since like November...

TBH, I think if you went back to this time last year you'd likely find the same doom-and-gloom as we were fresh off of a 0-0 draw vs Leipzig, barely squeaking by Paderborn, and struggling vs Hoffenheim and Schalke in the Pokal. Hindsight is 20/20; go back and look at your own posts at this point in last season and I suspect you won't hear a single thing about how it's okay that we dropped points or struggled vs these teams because "we're still on the rise so it's okay that we struggled" - no, again - I'd bet my bottom dollar that it was the same old, same old - we're garbage, we'll never win anything at this rate, etc. And I don't really get the complaint about being unable to score, unless you're talking about literally *just* our most recent match (in which one could reasonably claim we were unlucky not to score more, but it seems like with Bayern 'luck' only counts when we do something positive...), because beyond that we've scored ~2.4 goals per match in 2021....

Poor form since November? We dominated Salzburg, handled Dortmund (before they started imploding), dominated Salzburg again, drew Atletico with our C-team (imagine the response if that had been reversed), beat Wolfsburg (4), beat Leverkusen (1), and proceeded to go on a 7-match winning steak after going out vs Kiel. And we played a very good match vs Leipzig, with only perhaps 4-5 legitimately *bad* matches in the time between now and then. That's better than most everyone else can claim. Liverpool have played more crap games in the month of February alone than we have in the entire season, lmao.


The short of it is this: In spite of poor form at the moment, odds are that we will still likely have a fairly successful season. If history is any indication, the person(s) who predict a good outcome for Bayern are generally proven to be right; the person(s) who predict doom and gloom and destruction are almost always wrong by the end of the season.

Guys, merge off-topic posts if nothing else.

My eyes were bleeding on the transfer thread and there wasn't a T of transfer discussion and posts.

aterford wrote:

#12 wrote:Of course they would... My argument is still Bundesliga... Bar PSG, they all face better teams and are not that far ahead in quality!

Yeah, that's only half-true at the moment TBH. At the moment this season per 538 there's still five Bundesliga teams in the top-20 teams in the world. According to UEFA there's four. That's compared to six (538) or five (UEFA) EPL clubs, five (538) or five (UEFA) La Liga clubs, and three (538) or three (UEFA) Serie A clubs in the top-20. And the BL was 2nd in league coefficient last season, currently third.

I suppose one could argue that the bottom-half teams in other leagues are better than the bottom-half BL teams, but at that point the argument would then basically shift to claiming that Liverpool/Barca/Juve etc are better than Bayern because Fulham and Newcastle and Cagliari and Parma and Eibar and Elche are better than Bielefeld and Mainz and etc and...that's not really much of an argument, is it?

That's not to claim that the Bundesliga is *better* than the PL or La Liga (it *is* better than Serie A, though) nor is it even necessarily to claim that it is "not worse" - but the notion that Liverpool and Barca and Juve would be better off right now if they were playing in the Bundesliga doesn't really hold any water. And of course it completely ignores the fact that they've all been demonstrably worse in the UCL than we have, which naturally has little-to-nothing to do with each team's respective domestic league.

#12 wrote:I do not watch them all the time but I saw Liverpool ridicule the team that we will yet again not beat this season and that will best us if things don’t take a quick turn...

Liverpool ridiculed Leipzig? Are you sure you actually watched that match, too? Leipzig gifted them two stupid goals and missed a dozen chances of their own. If you played that same match 100 times, Leipzig would've won it 75 at worst. They were not inferior to Liverpool, in spite of the less-than-flattering scoreline. They came out ahead on xG and most all analytics!

#12 wrote:Last year, we were on the rise, this year, we are in a downward spiral... Literally, we are continually getting worse, because we cannot even score a lot anymore with the defense at least not improving...

It’s nit just this season that dips in form and crises occur and both is fine... my point is results overshadow that our poor form has been going on since like November...

TBH, I think if you went back to this time last year you'd likely find the same doom-and-gloom as we were fresh off of a 0-0 draw vs Leipzig, barely squeaking by Paderborn, and struggling vs Hoffenheim and Schalke in the Pokal. Hindsight is 20/20; go back and look at your own posts at this point in last season and I suspect you won't hear a single thing about how it's okay that we dropped points or struggled vs these teams because "we're still on the rise so it's okay that we struggled" - no, again - I'd bet my bottom dollar that it was the same old, same old - we're garbage, we'll never win anything at this rate, etc. And I don't really get the complaint about being unable to score, unless you're talking about literally *just* our most recent match (in which one could reasonably claim we were unlucky not to score more, but it seems like with Bayern 'luck' only counts when we do something positive...), because beyond that we've scored ~2.4 goals per match in 2021....

Poor form since November? We dominated Salzburg, handled Dortmund (before they started imploding), dominated Salzburg again, drew Atletico with our C-team (imagine the response if that had been reversed), beat Wolfsburg (4), beat Leverkusen (1), and proceeded to go on a 7-match winning steak after going out vs Kiel. And we played a very good match vs Leipzig, with only perhaps 4-5 legitimately *bad* matches in the time between now and then. That's better than most everyone else can claim. Liverpool have played more crap games in the month of February alone than we have in the entire season, lmao.


The short of it is this: In spite of poor form at the moment, odds are that we will still likely have a fairly successful season. If history is any indication, the person(s) who predict a good outcome for Bayern are generally proven to be right; the person(s) who predict doom and gloom and destruction are almost always wrong by the end of the season.

I can agree on the first part... Don’t even know necessarily if these teams are worse, just think, say Juve, would comfortably lead in Bundesliga...

For the second part: finishing is an integral part of this game... I will never get the notion of claiming teams are worse despite winning, just because the other one didn’t score... As a matter of fact, aren’t you claiming that was all that was missing on Saturday in our game? I still maintain Bielefeld and Frankfurt won deservedly - as do others - and as I think Liverpool did... When we play them in March and lose 3-0 people will wish we could finish every shot to have a chance for a draw...

Yeah the thing is we also almost conceded 2 a game
And again, we only played bottom-table teams... You know, the kind we usually score 4+ against...
I am sure I didn’t see us on the rise, especially not THAT rise... But I think I was only (dead certain) on about not winning the CL...

I also acknowledge your odds and am not contesting them... And I am not arguing there DEFINITELY will be doom and gloom... But we have to turn around now! We cannot afford this shit any longer... Our defense is a joke and when you talk about odds, tell me which team usually wins Bundesliga? Not the name... Statistically speaking...
We won’t beat Leipzig and we need to maintain a small lead... And that won’t be easy, conserving this form it‘ll be impossible...

#12 wrote:I can agree on the first part... Don’t even know necessarily if these teams are worse, just think, say Juve, would comfortably lead in Bundesliga...

Given that Juve can't lead in a league that's inferior to the Bundesliga, I'd dispute that, haha.

#12 wrote:For the second part: finishing is an integral part of this game... I will never get the notion of claiming teams are worse despite winning, just because the other one didn’t score... As a matter of fact, aren’t you claiming that was all that was missing on Saturday in our game? I still maintain Bielefeld and Frankfurt won deservedly - as do others - and as I think Liverpool did... When we play them in March and lose 3-0 people will wish we could finish every shot to have a chance for a draw...

Of course it is. But that's not the argument I was making, if that's not clear. (Of course, certainly you can acknowledge that the better team *can* lose and/or fail to score - is that not what *you* were claiming with regards to some of our recent wins? Or much of the Kovac era...) You're drawing up Liverpool as a comparison and saying that they decisively beat RBL so they're better than us because RBL are going to finish ahead of them or because we drew against RBL or something like that. I'm saying that they didn't win decisively and you shouldn't look to that match as some sort of evidence that Liverpool are better than us currently, because only considering the scoreline doesn't tell you much. Obviously you'd rather win than draw, and that's what ultimately counts, but focusing only on the end result is missing the forest for the trees.

#12 wrote:Yeah the thing is we also almost conceded 2 a game
And again, we only played bottom-table teams... You know, the kind we usually score 4+ against...

But that's not the argument. Don't move the goalposts - you claimed we're now unable to score. That's demonstrably untrue, and has nothing to do with how many we're conceding.

#12 wrote:I am sure I didn’t see us on the rise, especially not THAT rise... But I think I was only (dead certain) on about not winning the CL...

I also acknowledge your odds and am not contesting them... And I am not arguing there DEFINITELY will be doom and gloom... But we have to turn around now! We cannot afford this shit any longer... Our defense is a joke and when you talk about odds, tell me which team usually wins Bundesliga? Not the name... Statistically speaking...
We won’t beat Leipzig and we need to maintain a small lead... And that won’t be easy, conserving this form it‘ll be impossible...

Well, I wouldn't necessarily disagree with that, but there's a difference between "we need to improve, and soon" and painting it like the walls are all collapsing and every good thing we've done is a fluke and every bad thing we've done is just the natural consequences of us playing at our REAL level. Of course we need to improve. Difference is it feels like you're operating under the mindset that we will either a.) not improve at all, or at least not "enough" relative to others or b.) will continue to decline to an indeterminate bottoming-out while myself and others are saying that a.) form goes up and down and - historically speaking - odds are that we WILL improve or perhaps even b.) even if we don't significantly improve, just playing to our level (rather than underperforming) is still enough to get a very good end-of-season result.

As always it's fine to critique and point out things we need to improve, I don't think anyone has really ever seriously contested that, but that's a very different thing than catastrophizing and using literal falsehoods to try and make the situation look worse than it really is. We are in a bad run of form, no denying that. And it's fine to leave it at that! Saying we're worse than Liverpool or whoever to try and make our situation look worse doesn't make a more persuasive case....

aterford wrote:

#12 wrote:I can agree on the first part... Don’t even know necessarily if these teams are worse, just think, say Juve, would comfortably lead in Bundesliga...

Given that Juve can't lead in a league that's inferior to the Bundesliga, I'd dispute that, haha.

#12 wrote:For the second part: finishing is an integral part of this game... I will never get the notion of claiming teams are worse despite winning, just because the other one didn’t score... As a matter of fact, aren’t you claiming that was all that was missing on Saturday in our game? I still maintain Bielefeld and Frankfurt won deservedly - as do others - and as I think Liverpool did... When we play them in March and lose 3-0 people will wish we could finish every shot to have a chance for a draw...

Of course it is. But that's not the argument I was making, if that's not clear. (Of course, certainly you can acknowledge that the better team *can* lose and/or fail to score - is that not what *you* were claiming with regards to some of our recent wins? Or much of the Kovac era...) You're drawing up Liverpool as a comparison and saying that they decisively beat RBL so they're better than us because RBL are going to finish ahead of them or because we drew against RBL or something like that. I'm saying that they didn't win decisively and you shouldn't look to that match as some sort of evidence that Liverpool are better than us currently, because only considering the scoreline doesn't tell you much. Obviously you'd rather win than draw, and that's what ultimately counts, but focusing only on the end result is missing the forest for the trees.

#12 wrote:Yeah the thing is we also almost conceded 2 a game
And again, we only played bottom-table teams... You know, the kind we usually score 4+ against...

But that's not the argument. Don't move the goalposts - you claimed we're now unable to score. That's demonstrably untrue, and has nothing to do with how many we're conceding.

#12 wrote:I am sure I didn’t see us on the rise, especially not THAT rise... But I think I was only (dead certain) on about not winning the CL...

I also acknowledge your odds and am not contesting them... And I am not arguing there DEFINITELY will be doom and gloom... But we have to turn around now! We cannot afford this shit any longer... Our defense is a joke and when you talk about odds, tell me which team usually wins Bundesliga? Not the name... Statistically speaking...
We won’t beat Leipzig and we need to maintain a small lead... And that won’t be easy, conserving this form it‘ll be impossible...

Well, I wouldn't necessarily disagree with that, but there's a difference between "we need to improve, and soon" and painting it like the walls are all collapsing and every good thing we've done is a fluke and every bad thing we've done is just the natural consequences of us playing at our REAL level. Of course we need to improve. Difference is it feels like you're operating under the mindset that we will either a.) not improve at all, or at least not "enough" relative to others or b.) will continue to decline to an indeterminate bottoming-out while myself and others are saying that a.) form goes up and down and - historically speaking - odds are that we WILL improve or perhaps even b.) even if we don't significantly improve, just playing to our level (rather than underperforming) is still enough to get a very good end-of-season result.

As always it's fine to critique and point out things we need to improve, I don't think anyone has really ever seriously contested that, but that's a very different thing than catastrophizing and using literal falsehoods to try and make the situation look worse than it really is. We are in a bad run of form, no denying that. And it's fine to leave it at that! Saying we're worse than Liverpool or whoever to try and make our situation look worse doesn't make a more persuasive case....

Well... I think Liverpool never were in danger of not winning at least... And I think that‘s a statement... (as I think about Frankfurt while you guys disagree)
They completely controlled the game and had they had to step up, they would‘ve... We, on the other hand, can currently only step up when it’s already too little too late...

Not trying to move goalposts, you’re right, again my bad phrasing/hyperbole caught me off guard
I meant we‘re unable to score big (at will) like when we actually COULD turn these games around, which I criticized early on and got flak... Thing is, I think by now we all agree it‘s not sustainable but the team still thinks they can get away with it... And will continue to do so, I‘m afraid...

Nono, THIS is not our real level... Even I cannot think we are THAT bad! You misread me... I am saying that we played way above our level in summer... Like we are playing WAY below it right now (and do not seem to give a fuck)... Odds are, if we do not rack up a SERIOUS series of clean sheets now, that we will lose Bundesliga... That was my point: Bundesliga is always won by the top defensive teams... Not always THE best, but not far from it... We are VERY far from it AND we were in the same situation 2011, when we also gave away a 7 point lead - to Dortmund... If we lose the lead in the table again, no matter the odds, I am certain we won’t be able to bounce back...
And having seen this, feeling that there has been no improvement at all for a long time now - or at most a very short term one that always backlashed - it‘s hard for me to imagine improvement happening now, beyond the last third of the season, with all the actually tough games still to come, yes...

Screw Liverpool, the only reason I talk about other teams is cause all you guys‘ usual reaction is "name one team that is doing better" or anything to the same effect, so yeah, blame me fir my irrational rants, if you will, but do not take this out if the equation!

Juventus leading the Bundesliga? Jeez. They lost against the team which are -10 points in the Portuguese league. They'd be below BVB for sure.

MUTU wrote:Juventus leading the Bundesliga? Jeez. They lost against the team which are -10 points in the Portuguese league. They'd be below BVB for sure.

Remind me how many points Hoffenheim are behind the Bundesliga leaders? Or Kiel?

#12 wrote:

MUTU wrote:Juventus leading the Bundesliga? Jeez. They lost against the team which are -10 points in the Portuguese league. They'd be below BVB for sure.

Remind me how many points Hoffenheim are behind the Bundesliga leaders? Or Kiel?

Stop comparing CL KO to a Bundesliga match at the beginning of a season after winning the treble. Jeez. Talk about difference in motivation.

MUTU wrote:

#12 wrote:

MUTU wrote:Juventus leading the Bundesliga? Jeez. They lost against the team which are -10 points in the Portuguese league. They'd be below BVB for sure.

Remind me how many points Hoffenheim are behind the Bundesliga leaders? Or Kiel?

Stop comparing CL KO to a Bundesliga match at the beginning of a season after winning the treble. Jeez. Talk about difference in motivation.

That shit doesn’t fly when Juve will most likely still qualify while we have to redeem for Kiel, now Bielefeld, and soon a lost 7 point lead...

Just by throwing your own wild baseless predictions around doesn't make them true, so better base them on something. I mean I can likewise say Arminia Bielefeld would be first in the Premier League but I'd need to provide something don't I?

Every single club ranking system I have checked ranks us in the top 2 in Europe based on current form (current obviously not being the last two matches). Usually we're first but there's one which has Manchester City ahead of us.

The best one I know also has Leipzig ahead of Juventus, so there's that.

Tonight we play away against the team that's only 2 points below Juventus, so we can compare.

Anyway:
ClubElo: Bayern 1st, Leipzig 10th, Juventus 12th
EuroClubIndex: Bayern 2nd, Juventus 8th
Elofootball: Bayern 1st, Juventus 6th

And that's based on the current form alone, not the form through the whole season. Juventus started very poorly and improved a lot since. Don't forget that.

To note that Euroclubindex and Elofootball both calculate the greatest team of all time to be Bayern in November, which is obviously this season. One claims 16th November, the other 7th November. During said time, Juventus were ranked just above Leverkusen, and well behind Bayern, Leipzig and Borussia Dortmund.

Can't see tweet? Click here!

I loved the music and the enthusiasm behind this man's voice ...

Is anyone able to translate?

Can't see tweet? Click here!

View this post on Instagram

Happy birthday to our one and only, unrepeatable homegrown GK legend Sepp Maier.

So we still dont know who wanted to sign Sarr

https://www.bavarianfootballworks.com/2 ... avid-alaba

Karl is responsible. He holds the budget and opens the pipe. He just can't admit and take responsibility like a real man.



The current situation at Bayern, only Sarr doesn't look like Mitsubishi Eclipse, more like Warburg.