by Aequitas1987 » Sat Jan 06, 2018 8:42 am
I have come across some brilliant posts (especially by Manchu) with regards to Bayerns attacking future both tactically and in terms of personnel and I tend to agree with a lot of what he has to say especially with regards to versatility & unpredictability of a forward line as a whole and not simply opting for like to like replacements of Robbery.
Football does not stay still for anybody and the effectiveness of a particular player or rather a particular style is so context sensitive that it can't simply be boiled down to we need another pacey winger who is good at one on ones and has the ability to be an inside forward and contribute goals from there.
Gents, there is only one Robben and no matter how hard we try and look a like to like replacement is unlikely. Secondly a lot of us as Bayern fan's judge our players, our coaches and our team on the basis of their successes especially deep into the champions league - removing those rose tinted glasses and taking a hard look at the fact that these same skill sets did not make him a world beater in every season he was here at Bayern - otherwise we simply would have either been finalists or winners in all the seasons that Robben played at his peak under us (we almost did and that shows the remarkable effectiveness he had). So what was it about the treble winning season that provided the context for Robbery to be so devastating in attack?
- Was it the coach's tactical setup?
- Was it the effectiveness & pace of our counter attacks?
- Was it the ability to have a high turnover of possession to create attacks?
- Was it the link up play between our forward line?
- Was it the overlapping runs by our full backs to enable the inside forwards?
- Was it the creation of space via indirect intelligent runs by some of our key forwards?
The reality is that its most likely all of the above to varying degrees that enabled our wingers to be as effective as they were in the treble winning season.
Of course, a lot of the success is on the coach with his tactical setup, individual and team instructions, exploiting the opponents etc but the reality is that all great coaches (and as much as some people still severely dislike Pep, he is absolutely right about one thing) build a system around the strengths of their players rather than the other way around.
It would be much easier if we had clarity on who our next coach is going to be - if it would be Tuchel, Nagelsmann or Jupp staying we can predict the tactical setup(s) they prefer, the football philosophies they abide by and therefore also be more accurate with our Robbery replacements. Even still, there is one context that's unlikely to change too much and thats the strengths of the players that we already have at our disposal especially as part of the starting lineup in midfield and up front.
- We know that our striker will most likely consist of Lewandowski for the most part or Wagner (not much different)
- We know that Muller will most likely continue to have a prominent role in 3/4 attacking positions.
- We know that Coman is most likely also going to be a regular fixture in attack.
- We know the capabilities of our starting fullbacks in Alaba & especially in Kimmich
- We know the kind of distribution Boateng, Hummels & Thiago can provide from deep
- We know the kind of incisive passing & vision James is known for in the final third
- We know the dangerous runs into the box that Vidal & Tolisso are capable off
- We know the outside the box accuracy of Vidal, Tolisso & Goretzka
The list of strengths can go on and on. What I am basically trying to say is that its about breaking down the previous successes, combining it within today's football meta, keeping in mind the strengths of our existing lineup when coming up with who should we sign and how we should be tactically setup going into next season.
At the end of the day how impactful or ideal an attacking signing is going to be is not dependant on him alone but how does he work best within the system (unknown) and more importantly how importantly do his strengths synergize with the strengths of our existing stars.
For e.g. its common sense that if we played a 4-4-2 with two target men up front then the inside forwards (Robbery) cutting in and taking shots is a complete ineffective application of our resources - as opposed to providing a constant supply of crosses from wide wingers and full backs (Coman & Kimmich). The reality is also that at the highest levels of the champions league the effectiveness of the forward line is always more dependant on the tactics, the synergy, the link-up as opposed to individual brilliance because at that level the 'skill delta' between the two teams is for the most part minimised.
I know I wrote this entire piece of what sounds mostly like common sense gibberish to get to one key takeway/conclusion i.e. with the uncertainty around our future coach & tactics - our best bet for replacements are not like to like robbery replacements in the form of inside forwards i.e. 'specalists'. What we need are either a) 'complete forwards' or more 'muller-like jokers' with high footballing IQ & versatility.
Complete forwards
These are the best of the bunch, they are proven to be WC at their core positions and close to WC at other forward positions, they are capable of doing anything and everything within the context of the team. All of them are not perfect of course, they have their own fair share of flaws - some might not be fast enough, some might have poor finishing, some might not track back enough but for the most part if Bayern breaks the bank on a young complete forward then no matter who the coach is, no matter what the tactics are, no matter who the players are in the starting 11 - these players due to their WC-level at so many aspects find a way to work for the team and be impactful.
1) Dybala
2) Hazard
3) De Bruyne
4) Coutinho
Most of them are impossible buys. I placed Dybala at the top because out of the four he is the likeliest (and still a very low %) and in my opinion also the most 'complete'. De Bruyne is a close second in completed-ness especially on current form but in the context of the player's at Bayern's disposal and the fact that he is not as effective of a wide forward he loses out to Hazard.
High IQ forwards
These are not WC at any single ability. They probably do not have WC vision or dribbling, finishing or link-up play but they are in the higher percentile of a majority of the skills and more importantly when they combine it with their high footballing IQ they are able to be excellent decision-makers on knowing when to utilize what skill-set for the betterment of the entire forward unit as a whole. These are the players that will
- be effective in going wide and supplying good crosses for a 4-4-2
- be able to cut in and lay off to our devastating long shot CM's
- be able to overlap to enable the Kimmich & Alaba's to be dangerous
- be able to do quick 1-2 passing with our SS & CAM's to open up dangerous channels of attack.
- be able to make the off the ball runs to benefit from the distribution & vision of Thiago, James, Boateng or Hummels.
They will not single-handedly win us games but they will empower all our other WC players already to shine even more as more often than not they will choose the right decision.
1) Brandt
2) Draxler
3) Goretzka
Brandt is the top of the bunch with regards to his versatility and his footballing IQ in this regard. I have put Goretzka there even though he is best used in the middle as he has all the necessary tools to be effective out wide as well. Draxler's IQ is not as high as a Brandt or a Goretzka but he is slightly superior in some of the attacking skill sets such as Aerial threat, finishing, physicality etc.
We should in no way shape or form sign specialists such as especially with the uncertainty of all the other context's - coach & tactics.
Malcolm (Douglas Costa)
Bailey (Shaqiri & Robben hybrid)
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