FC Bayern Forum

3-0 for kickers

What's the score?


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MUTU wrote:Wriedt is turning into quite a bit of a goal machine. Two goals today so far and he's been bagging them from literally hours after signing. Perhaps he'll be our backup striker?

There's actually a pretty good chance that Wriedt is at the very least Bundesliga starter material and good enough to be a backup for Lewandowski. In order to explain why, I need to go what he accomplished last season. He scored 12 and assisted 8 in 2681 minutes of play for his club VfL Osnabrück. That puts him as tied for third in scorer points in the 3.Liga last season. A normal person would go "so what? It's the third tier" at this point and would be right in any country outside of Germany, but the distribution of league strength is actually very strange in Germany. Let's us examine the average goalimpacts of the German leagues:
Bundesliga from August 27th:
Can't see tweet? Click here!
2.Bundesliga from August 29th:
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3.Liga from July 20th:
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A perceptive observer should notice that, though there is a very gradual decrease in team quality, there is still a lot of overlap in team quality. 11 teams in the 2.Bundesliga and 4 in the 3.Liga would be expected to avoid direct relegation in the Bundesliga at the very least, and 2 teams in both the 2.Bundesliga and 2 in the 3.Liga would be expected to finish mid-table. This is why, of the 6 matches between a team in the Bundesliga and a team in the 2.Bundesliga or 3.Liga on the first DFP Pokal matchday, the lower league teams won two of the matches.

VFL Osnabruck is far from the best team in the 3.Liga, but they are still only a couple of points worse than the worse teams in the Bundesliga, and those teams(Bremen and Frankfort) have at least two players between them that are good enough to be backups on our team(Max Kruse and Kevin-Prince Boateng). Thus, if Wriedt was one of the best players on Osnabruck, it's not improbable that he has a goalimpact of 140+ or even has a peak of 150+. That puts him far from Bayern starter material but definitely makes him a good backup.

By the way, just so you get a sense how insanely good the lower leagues in Germany are, here is Ligue 1(before a few transfers, but those didn't change much):
Can't see tweet? Click here!
Here's Serie A:
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And here's the Premier League:
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And the Championship:
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Note that there's a very clear decrease between the Premier League and the Championship, but not in Germany. I suspect that the current situation is related to the modern German youth program.