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2020/21 UEFA Champions League Discussion Thread

Discussions on the UEFA Champions League matches.
 

How will Bayern do in the 2020/21 Champions League?

Only reach the Quarter-Finals
2
11%
Only reach the Semi-Finals
3
16%
Reach the Finals and Win
14
74%
Reach the Finals but Lose
0
No votes
 
Total votes : 19

Re: 2020/21 UEFA Champions League Discussion Thread

Postby Awax » Thu Feb 18, 2021 4:16 pm

I'll go first buddy, Yes I think he is.
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Re: 2020/21 UEFA Champions League Discussion Thread

Postby aterford » Thu Feb 18, 2021 5:47 pm

Presented without comment, just for your consideration. This is from the past year (365 days), in all competitions, and of course all per-90 numbers.

Goals:
Lewandowski 1.20
Haaland 0.99

Assists:
Lewandowski 0.36
Haaland 0.20

Non-penalty goals:
Tie: Both at 0.96

Penalties converted:
Lewandowski 0.25
Haaland 0.03

xG:
Lewandowski 0.95
Haaland 0.76

npxG:
Lewandowski 0.74
Haaland 0.71

xA:
Haaland 0.19
Lewandowski 0.18

npxg+xA:
Lewandowski 0.92
Haaland 0.90

Shots, total:
Lewandowski 4.07
Haaland 3.36

Shots on target:
Haaland 1.78
Lewandowski 1.78 (Haaland fractionally ahead)

Shots on target percentage:
Haaland 52.9%
Lewandowski 43.6%

Goals per shot:
Haaland 0.28
Lewandowski 0.23

Passes completed:
Lewandowski 19.98
Haaland 13.61

Passing percentage:
Lewandowski 76.8%
Haaland 72.7%

Passing distance, total:
Lewandowski 304.57
Haaland 189.16

Progressive Passing distance:
Lewandowski 64.23
Haaland 29.06

Short pass completion:
Lewandowski 82.5%
Haaland 77.1%

Medium pass completion:
Lewandowski 78%
Haaland 72.3%

Long pass completion:
Lewandowski 75.6%
Haaland 62.5%

Key Passes:
Lewandowski 1.34
Haaland 0.86

Passes into Final Third:
Lewandowski 1.39
Haaland 0.56

Passes into Penalty Area:
Lewandowski 1.07
Haaland 0.49

Crosses into Penalty Area:
Lewandowski 0.19
Haaland 0.07

Progressive Passes:
Lewandowski 2.24
Haaland 0.86

Passes made under pressure:
Lewandowski 5.82
Haaland 4.38

Through-balls:
Lewandowski 0.25
Haaland 0.00

Switch-passes:
Lewandowski 0.49
Haaland 0.13

Passes out of bounds/intercepted/blocked (less=better):
Haaland 1.55
Lewandowski 2.33

Shot-creating actions:
Lewandowski 3.17
Haaland 2.27

Goal-creating actions:
Lewandowski 0.68
Haaland 0.59

Touches:
Lewandowski 38.62
Haaland 28.76

Dribbles completed:
Lewandowski 1.12
Haaland 1.05

Dribbles attempted:
Lewandowski 2.24
Haaland 1.88

Dribble success percentage:
Haaland 56.1%
Lewandowski 50.0%

Players dribbled past:
Lewandowski 1.31
Haaland 1.12

Carries:
Lewandowski 25.39
Haaland 16.60

Total carry distance:
Lewandowski 121.57
Haaland 88.72

Progressive carries:
Lewandowski 3.61
Haaland 2.90

Progressive carry distance:
Lewandowski 59.96
Haaland 52.45

Carries into Final Third:
Lewandowski 1.34
Haaland 0.89

Carries into Penalty Area:
Haaland 1.05
Lewandowski 0.79

Ball recoveries:
Lewandowski 4.18
Haaland 3.16

Aerials won:
Lewandowski 2.27
Haaland 1.32

Aerials lost:
Haaland 1.52
Lewandowski 2.10

Aerial win %:
Lewandowski 51.9%
Haaland 46.5%

Miscontrols:
Haaland 1.81
Lewandowski 2.32

Dispossessed:

Haaland 1.09
Lewandowski 1.89

Yellow cards:
Lewandowski 0.08
Haaland 0.13

Offsides:
Haaland 0.40
Lewandowski 0.60

Penalties won:
Lewandowski 0.08
Haaland 0.00

And, I don't know how much weight you really put into defensive-actions for your CF, but here they are, just in case.

Tackles, total:
Lewandowski 0.87
Haaland 0.40

Tackles won:
Lewandowski 0.60
Haaland 0.36

Dribbles contested:
Lewandowski 0.64
Haaland 0.56

Dribblers tackled:
Lewandowski 0.19
Haaland 0.16

Times dribbled past:

Lewandowski 0.44
Haaland 0.46

Total pressures:
Lewandowski 12.54
Haaland 11.30

Successful pressures:
Lewandowski 3.91
Haaland 3.43

Successful pressure percentage:
Lewandowski 31.2%
Haaland 30.3%

Pressures in defending third:
Lewandowski 0.60
Haaland 0.46

Pressures in middle third:
Lewandowski 3.88
Haaland 3.79

Pressures in attacking third:
Lewandowski 8.06
Haaland 7.05

Blocks:
Haaland 0.82
Lewandowski 0.46

Interceptions:
Haaland 0.23
Lewandowski 0.19

Tackles+Interceptions:
Lewandowski 1.07
Haaland 0.63

Clearances:
Haaland 0.56
Lewandowski 0.33
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Re: 2020/21 UEFA Champions League Discussion Thread

Postby Awax » Thu Feb 18, 2021 5:59 pm

Thanks for the stats arteford. It's up for debate, opinions are most definitely split on that matter which is a good thing. A lot of these stats are dependent on the team/system they play in. I wouldn't form a final opinion based on these stats. Regardless if I find Haaland to be better or not, it doesn't take anything away from Lewy and his achievements. I just think Haaland is a beast of his own.
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Re: 2020/21 UEFA Champions League Discussion Thread

Postby MUTU » Thu Feb 18, 2021 6:37 pm

Awax wrote:I'll go first buddy, Yes I think he is.

Seconded.
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Re: 2020/21 UEFA Champions League Discussion Thread

Postby PunkCapitalist » Thu Feb 18, 2021 6:38 pm

Awax wrote:Thanks for the stats arteford. It's up for debate, opinions are most definitely split on that matter which is a good thing. A lot of these stats are dependent on the team/system they play in. I wouldn't form a final opinion based on these stats. Regardless if I find Haaland to be better or not, it doesn't take anything away from Lewy and his achievements. I just think Haaland is a beast of his own.
The stats show that currently Lewy is the better player overall, but the fact that there even is a conversation speaks in favor of Haaland, specially considering that Lewy is at his best season ever while Haaland is barely 20 and Lewy for the best team in the world, whole Haaland plays for a second or third rate Dortmund (which is only second or third rate thanks to Haaland, otherwise they would be mid table material).

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Re: 2020/21 UEFA Champions League Discussion Thread

Postby Lukas » Thu Feb 18, 2021 6:38 pm

MUTU wrote:
Awax wrote:I'll go first buddy, Yes I think he is.

Seconded.

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Re: 2020/21 UEFA Champions League Discussion Thread

Postby aterford » Thu Feb 18, 2021 6:46 pm

Awax wrote:Thanks for the stats arteford. It's up for debate, opinions are most definitely split on that matter which is a good thing. A lot of these stats are dependent on the team/system they play in. I wouldn't form a final opinion based on these stats. Regardless if I find Haaland to be better or not, it doesn't take anything away from Lewy and his achievements. I just think Haaland is a beast of his own.


Yes there's certainly some truth to that, although I think it should also be noted that sometimes that knife can kind of cut both ways, so to speak. Sometimes a player benefits (numerically) from being in a better team, but on the other hand I think it's not unheard of to see a player benefit (again, numerically, at least) from being in a team where they're the only (or one of few) real options, too. I think of a player like Wilfried Zaha for example - for me, a good player, but not a world-class one. I feel that in years past his numbers have benefitted as he's one of few scoring threats on his team.

I'm trying to think of the best way to explain this point without sounding a total mess and am not having great luck. Haha. Hopefully it comes out correctly, if not, bear with me :lol:

So looking at a team like Bayern - we see this year, in total, Lewandowski amounts for roughly 33% of our total goals in all contests. Haaland at BVB amounts for roughly 40% of their goals, which is not a HUGE discrepancy, but I think we also notice that overall - while Bayern does score more - there's also more "spread" to the goals (in that we've simply had a larger number of players with goal involvements). When you look at just "attacking" players (Lewandowski, Muller, Sane, Gnabry, Coman, Musiala, Choupo, Costa) we've scored 69 goals and Lewandowski's 30 would represent 43% of our "attackers" goals.
The reason I bring that up is that in these situations I think there's often some overlap - a situation in which one of our wingers scores is often a situation in which we could perhaps reasonably assume that Lewandowski *should* also be in a position to score. But a goal-scoring sequence in which one of our midfielders or defenders or someone scores - barring set-pieces - is perhaps a situation in which Lewandowski is (broadly speaking) perhaps less involved in the play and by extension less likely to score.

In other words, this is all a roundabout way of saying that when you have a number of good attacking players, it's at least conceivable that some may see their individual numbers suffer a bit because there's more "threats" and only one ball to play with. Or, one might rather say that - again, broadly speaking - when a team is getting more 'production' out of ALL its attackers, you might expect the individual attacker's (in this case, the CF, Lewandowski) to see their numbers show a slight drop. Conversely, when a team is not getting as much production out of its other attackers, you might see that world-class individual attacker's numbers rise a bit. I think that overall this has largely been true at Bayern with Lewandowski. It's not a great margin of difference, but in general it seems like Lewandowski's share of scoring goes up when our other attackers aren't producing as much, and goes down a bit when they are.

ANYWAYS, bringing that all to Haaland - when you look at goals scored just by BVB's attackers (Haaland, Sancho, Reus, Reyna, Hazard, Brandt, Reinier, Tigges, etc) - Haaland's 25 represents 51% of those goals. So I guess the question is: Would a player like Haaland see those numbers increase or decrease if you swapped him and Lewandowski right now? Does having better providers see his numbers go up a bit, or does having more goalscoring threats in the team bring those numbers down a bit? If Lewandowski took Haaland's spot at BVB, would he see his numbers go down because he's got worse 'providers' around him and is in a worse side, or would he see his individual numbers improve because he'd so clearly be the biggest goal threat by a wide margin (and thereby the one the offense would certainly be funneled through, even more than it is at Bayern)?

Of course I think we must also consider sample size, too. In all competitions between last season and this season, Lewandowski has played 6,582 minutes while Haaland has played "just" 4,793. And I think this too can work both ways. In a total aggregate sense, more minutes is more chances to accumulate stats. But on a per-minute basis (or per-90 minutes, of course), less minutes can give or take a bit. Good form with less minutes will certainly boost your numbers (but by the same measure: bad form with less minutes gives less time to 'recover' as well). So it's hard for me to say one way or another. If Haaland played an extra 2000 minutes in the last season and a half, would he still see the same per-90 numbers, or would they come down some? I can't say for sure, but I think typically given a greater amount of time you'd probably expect a slight decline. That's not to undersell his accomplishments, of course, but you know - law of large numbers and all that.

All that to say - it's not to take away from Haaland, or to bump up Lewandowski, or vice-versa - but mostly just food for thought. Of course numbers don't tell the whole story and can be made to say a number of things, but I think it's all worth at least considering. You really can't go wrong with either.

And of course, I don't think "right now" has ever been a really big consideration, tbh. Personally, I think Lewandowski is better right now, but he's 32 and Haaland is 20, and if you're looking to add Haaland it's really not a question of who's better 'right now' but rather who WILL be better over the course of their next contract years. That's a much, much murkier question, IMO
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Re: 2020/21 UEFA Champions League Discussion Thread

Postby FCBayernMunchen » Thu Feb 18, 2021 7:31 pm

PunkCapitalist wrote:
Awax wrote:Thanks for the stats arteford. It's up for debate, opinions are most definitely split on that matter which is a good thing. A lot of these stats are dependent on the team/system they play in. I wouldn't form a final opinion based on these stats. Regardless if I find Haaland to be better or not, it doesn't take anything away from Lewy and his achievements. I just think Haaland is a beast of his own.
The stats show that currently Lewy is the better player overall, but the fact that there even is a conversation speaks in favor of Haaland, specially considering that Lewy is at his best season ever while Haaland is barely 20 and Lewy for the best team in the world, whole Haaland plays for a second or third rate Dortmund (which is only second or third rate thanks to Haaland, otherwise they would be mid table material).

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No one is debating that Haaland is a fantastic player and in a few years’ time will be the better one of the two. Maybe he will have a peak better than Lewa’s.

What we’re reacting to is the claim that we should trade Lewandowski (+money!) for Haaland, now. Not buy out Haaland’s release clause. Trading them, now.

If the transfer window were open, would you give Lewandowski and money for Haaland today?

Resounding no from me.
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Re: 2020/21 UEFA Champions League Discussion Thread

Postby Awax » Thu Feb 18, 2021 7:33 pm

First off, my apologies for botching your name, I got myself a rapidfire keyboard and I can't type anymore :lol:

aterford wrote:Yes there's certainly some truth to that, although I think it should also be noted that sometimes that knife can kind of cut both ways, so to speak. Sometimes a player benefits (numerically) from being in a better team, but on the other hand I think it's not unheard of to see a player benefit (again, numerically, at least) from being in a team where they're the only (or one of few) real options, too. I think of a player like Wilfried Zaha for example - for me, a good player, but not a world-class one. I feel that in years past his numbers have benefitted as he's one of few scoring threats on his team.


100%

aterford wrote:I'm trying to think of the best way to explain this point without sounding a total mess and am not having great luck. Haha. Hopefully it comes out correctly, if not, bear with me :lol:


:lol: You got that right, it makes perfect sense. There are tons of aspects weighting in and out and comparing their stats and achievements is not fair at the moment. Me believing that Haaland is better comes mostly from the feeling I get watching him. He has this incredible aura that I saw in a 2007 Messi. He's extremely powerful and confident. His presence is felt and he scores goals with intent. His numbers only confirm it.
Like you said, one plays for a top team with tons of providers and the other almost carries their offense. One thing for sure, Lewy fits Bayern's system pretty damn well. We have an army of providers and he's easy to find in the box. His positional play and anticipation in the penalty area are god like, probably on par with prime cr7 at the moment. This is what helps him bag so many goals, as he's not the typical ice cold finisher (pretty average in 1v1s actually). We would most probably play differently with Haaland, though I still think that he'd end up with crazy numbers too.
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Re: 2020/21 UEFA Champions League Discussion Thread

Postby aterford » Thu Feb 18, 2021 7:49 pm

FCBayernMunchen wrote:
PunkCapitalist wrote:
Awax wrote:Thanks for the stats arteford. It's up for debate, opinions are most definitely split on that matter which is a good thing. A lot of these stats are dependent on the team/system they play in. I wouldn't form a final opinion based on these stats. Regardless if I find Haaland to be better or not, it doesn't take anything away from Lewy and his achievements. I just think Haaland is a beast of his own.
The stats show that currently Lewy is the better player overall, but the fact that there even is a conversation speaks in favor of Haaland, specially considering that Lewy is at his best season ever while Haaland is barely 20 and Lewy for the best team in the world, whole Haaland plays for a second or third rate Dortmund (which is only second or third rate thanks to Haaland, otherwise they would be mid table material).

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No one is debating that Haaland is a fantastic player and in a few years’ time will be the better one of the two. Maybe he will have a peak better than Lewa’s.

What we’re reacting to is the claim that we should trade Lewandowski (+money!) for Haaland, now. Not buy out Haaland’s release clause. Trading them, now.

If the transfer window were open, would you give Lewandowski and money for Haaland today?

Resounding no from me.


Yeah, this. I think it's probably fair to say in 5-years time Haaland will be the better player, but that's not really the question here. Lewandowski is the best player in the world right now and if that player's going to leave it's because a club is approaching you with an offer-you-can't-refuse type of thing. You're not shopping him or looking for a deal to get rid of that type of player no matter who is potentially available in replacement. It'd be like Barca offering Messi+Cash for Mbappe, like the Bulls offering Jordan+Cash for Kobe, like Madrid offering Ronaldo and cash for Sancho or something. It just doesn't happen.

How many times ever has the current best player in the world been sold, under any circumstances?

How many times ever has the current best player in the world been swapped for a top talent - again, under any circumstances?

How many times ever has the current best player in the world been swapped PLUS CASH for a top talent - ever?

It's quite literally unprecedented. I'm sure it's fun for discussion, but I guarantee you every single club boss/board in the world would laugh you out of their offices if you proposed such a deal. Never going to happen.

As before, the only way Haaland arrives in Munich is if he is 100% dead-set on coming to Bayern and no one else. And even then it won't come at the expense of Lewandowski. You simply don't get rid of that kind of a player in 99.999% of circumstances.
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Re: 2020/21 UEFA Champions League Discussion Thread

Postby PunkCapitalist » Thu Feb 18, 2021 8:02 pm

FCBayernMunchen wrote:
PunkCapitalist wrote:
Awax wrote:Thanks for the stats arteford. It's up for debate, opinions are most definitely split on that matter which is a good thing. A lot of these stats are dependent on the team/system they play in. I wouldn't form a final opinion based on these stats. Regardless if I find Haaland to be better or not, it doesn't take anything away from Lewy and his achievements. I just think Haaland is a beast of his own.
The stats show that currently Lewy is the better player overall, but the fact that there even is a conversation speaks in favor of Haaland, specially considering that Lewy is at his best season ever while Haaland is barely 20 and Lewy for the best team in the world, whole Haaland plays for a second or third rate Dortmund (which is only second or third rate thanks to Haaland, otherwise they would be mid table material).

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No one is debating that Haaland is a fantastic player and in a few years’ time will be the better one of the two. Maybe he will have a peak better than Lewa’s.

What we’re reacting to is the claim that we should trade Lewandowski (+money!) for Haaland, now. Not buy out Haaland’s release clause. Trading them, now.

If the transfer window were open, would you give Lewandowski and money for Haaland today?

Resounding no from me.
Yes. How many more seasons at this level can we expect of Lewy? 1? 2 tops? Trading for Haaland a signing a 5 year contract would mean at least 3 top season + recovering the investment or (in the better scenario) potentially a decade or more of the best striker in the world. Age is a bitch, if Lewy were to be the only thing standing in the way of Bayern bringing Haaland in (which is, of course, a huge "if"), I wouldn't doubt what the rational choice would be.

Put in another way, if both players had 2 years left on their contracts today, the window were open and neither had a release clause, Lewy would be worth something like 50-60m while Haaland would command 120-150m.

There is one case in which is think keeping Lewy is better (and it was how I felt about Bayern 2-3years ago); if you have a big core of world class players at the end of their prime who can win everything within 2 years but after that are expected to decline, then it makes sense maximizing short-term over long-term benefit. I don't feel that were Bayern is atm... Our core is young and has plenty of years in front of them, it's best to get them a long-term striker.

Back when Alexis was on the market I made this argument and I stand by it. It would have been better to get a top player (which I though was Alexis) to compliment Neuer, Lewy, Müller, Boateng, Hummels, Thiago, et al, instead of getting Gnabry or Coman, for the simple reason that the latter would take 2-3 years to be starter material.

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Re: 2020/21 UEFA Champions League Discussion Thread

Postby PunkCapitalist » Thu Feb 18, 2021 8:25 pm

aterford wrote:.


Looking at just the best player in the world is too restrictive. Your sample is too small. But, I would argued that Cristiano was still the best in the world when Madrid sold him.



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Re: 2020/21 UEFA Champions League Discussion Thread

Postby aterford » Thu Feb 18, 2021 9:14 pm

PunkCapitalist wrote:
aterford wrote:.


Looking at just the best player in the world is too restrictive. Your sample is too small. But, I would argued that Cristiano was still the best in the world when Madrid sold him.



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I'm not really sure why that sample would be too small when it's quite literally the exact scenario that's being proposed in this thread.

And yes: Ronaldo is the 0.001% example given. And that was almost certainly the wrong choice on Madrid's part. But they got 100m for him; they didn't send him away AND extra money to get a replacement player, either.
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Re: 2020/21 UEFA Champions League Discussion Thread

Postby PunkCapitalist » Thu Feb 18, 2021 9:50 pm

aterford wrote:
PunkCapitalist wrote:
aterford wrote:.


Looking at just the best player in the world is too restrictive. Your sample is too small. But, I would argued that Cristiano was still the best in the world when Madrid sold him.



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I'm not really sure why that sample would be too small when it's quite literally the exact scenario that's being proposed in this thread.

And yes: Ronaldo is the 0.001% example given. And that was almost certainly the wrong choice on Madrid's part. But they got 100m for him; they didn't send him away AND extra money to get a replacement player, either.
I don't think it was the wrong choice at all. Ronaldo would not have won another CL for Madrid. They wasted the money on Hazard, which was a horrible decision, but it was still a big sum they could have used far better.

You're right that Madrid didn't trade Ronaldo + cash for a replacement, but that is because the replacement was just not available. If they could have given Ronaldo + cash for Mbappe I'm 100% sure they would have taken the deal.

I say it's a small sample in the sense that there have only been 2 players that are candidates to "best in the world" for a decade and a half, hence any potential movement would have to involve either of them and neither was old until now.

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Re: 2020/21 UEFA Champions League Discussion Thread

Postby aterford » Fri Feb 19, 2021 1:02 am

PunkCapitalist wrote:I don't think it was the wrong choice at all. Ronaldo would not have won another CL for Madrid. They wasted the money on Hazard, which was a horrible decision, but it was still a big sum they could have used far better.

You're right that Madrid didn't trade Ronaldo + cash for a replacement, but that is because the replacement was just not available. If they could have given Ronaldo + cash for Mbappe I'm 100% sure they would have taken the deal.

I say it's a small sample in the sense that there have only been 2 players that are candidates to "best in the world" for a decade and a half, hence any potential movement would have to involve either of them and neither was old until now.

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I mean, hindsight is 20/20, I guess, but I think you'd be hard-pressed to argue that Madrid wouldn't be better off right now if they'd just kept Ronaldo. If they never sold him, never got that money, and never bought Hazard, would they really be in a worse spot? I sure don't think so. And of course - while they overpaid - Hazard was still widely regarded as one of the best players in the Premier League and (again, hindsight is 20/20) the criticisms of that signing generally didn't come until later.

In whatever case, that's neither here nor there. There's no reason to limit it to just the last decade or the era of Ronaldo and Messi. Feel free to go back as far as you need to. Beyond Ronaldo to Juve in a straight cash deal - has there EVER been any example in the history of the sport for such a deal as is being proposed?
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