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[2020-12-14] Bayern Munich vs ??? — CL draw

Discussions on the UEFA Champions League matches.
 

Who would you like FC Bayern to draw?

Poll runs till Mon Dec 14, 2020 12:00 pm

What's this shit? We won't qualify!
0
No votes
A top club, let's show them who's boss!
0
No votes
A club we should beat but still has prestige
4
80%
An easy opponent, we need the rest
1
20%
 
Total votes : 5

[2020-12-14] Bayern Munich vs ??? — CL draw

Postby MatchBot » Sun Nov 15, 2020 9:22 am

2020-21 UEFA Champions League Round of 16 draw
2020-21 UEFA Champions League Round of 16 draw
Competition: UEFA Champions League
Venue: House of European Football, Nyon (neutral venue)
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Re: [2020-12-14] Bayern Munich vs ??? — CL draw

Postby MUTU » Sun Nov 15, 2020 9:26 am

Uh oh what do we have here? :mrgreen:
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Re: [2020-12-14] Bayern Munich vs ??? — CL draw

Postby FCBayernMunchen » Sun Nov 15, 2020 3:22 pm

Haha... if I'm not mistaken we need 1 point to be mathematically qualified. There is still the outlandish possibility that we lose by scores so big, or Lokomotiv win by scores so big, that our amazing goal difference counts for nothing.

Realistically it is very unlikely we will be eliminated even if we lose all 3 remaining games.
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Re: [2020-12-14] Bayern Munich vs ??? — CL draw

Postby aterford » Mon Nov 16, 2020 6:01 pm

FCBayernMunchen wrote:Haha... if I'm not mistaken we need 1 point to be mathematically qualified. There is still the outlandish possibility that we lose by scores so big, or Lokomotiv win by scores so big, that our amazing goal difference counts for nothing.

Realistically it is very unlikely we will be eliminated even if we lose all 3 remaining games.


I think I said it elsewhere but by my math I believe there is only one scenario in which we fail to advance: we would need to lose all three of our remaining matches and have Salzburg win all three of theirs. In that case, both Salzburg and Atleti would finish with 10pts and we'd finish with 9.

I guess there are a couple of scenarios in which we would be level on points with one of Salzburg/Atletico (or even Moscow, really) - and one scenario in which all three of Bayern, Salzburg, and Atletico are level on 10 pts. AFAIK, the only way this happens is if Bayern draw vs Moscow and lose to Salzburg/Atleti, Salzburg beat Bayern, Atletico, and Moscow, and Atletico beat Moscow, Bayern, and lose to Salzburg.
Spoiler: show
(Given that Salzburg are currently on 1 point, they'd have to win all three remaining to reach 10 pts. With Atletico on 4 points, the only way to reach 10 pts is to win two and lose one, and of course Salzburg would need to win out, which would mean a loss for Atletico in the final matchday. And given that we're on 9 pts, we would have to draw one match, but it couldn't be against Salzburg or Atletico, leaving only Moscow, naturally)


In all the single-tie scenarios (where we'd be either level on points with Salzburg OR Atletico OR Moscow, not multiple), we're through: There's no "single-tie" scenario that we can finish worse than 2nd, and the only way we finish 3rd outright is the above-defined scenario in which we lose out. So, barring us failing to earn a single point, the only matter of consideration would then be the weird scenario in which all three of Bayern, Salzburg, and Atleti are level on 10 points.
In this case, first tiebreaker is points head-to-head among tied teams. Given that we have already beaten both of these teams - and we'd have to lose to both for this scenario to occur - this tiebreaker is pretty well out for us (Vs Atleti we would have 3pts and they would have 3pts; vs Salzburg we would have 3pts and they would have 3pts). And of course, as mentioned above, Salzburg would have to win out to make the three-way tie on 10pts happen, which means - given that they have already lost to Atletico - they would have to win in the second fixture, which would also put Atletico and Salzburg level on head-to-head points at 3 apiece.

Bear with me here...with all that in mind, we'd go to the second tiebreaker, which is goal differential in head-to-head matches amongst tied teams. Of course we are already +4 on both Atletico and Salzburg, with the 4-0 and 6-2 wins, respectively. So....with that in mind, I'm pretty sure the only way to go out then (in that three-way tie scenario) would be to lose to one of Atletico or Salzburg by such a margin that would overturn that +4 goal differential (so, like a 5-0 loss, for example) - the third tiebreaker, in the event of a +4 goal differential against Bayern by Salzburg/Atletico is head-to-head goals scored. I can't think of any scenario in which we could be level on goal differential but behind on head-to-head goals scored (For example, a 10-6 Atletico win would put both of us at +0 GD against each other, but we'd still be level on 10 total goals scored head-to-head). Fourth tiebreaker is away goals head-to-head, but we're the away team in the second match vs Atleti, and with them failing to score in the first leg, there's no scenario in which we could be level on goal differential, level on head-to-head goals, and level on away goals, save for us losing 4-0. Then I think it goes to total goal difference, so who knows.

With Salzburg it is mostly the same case as above, except that we have 6 away goals scored. I guess something like a 7-3 win for Salzburg in Munich would ostensibly maintain our +0 goal differential, 9 goals scored, and put them up 7-6 on away goals.

There are also yet a couple of scenarios in which Bayern and one other team could potentially make it through the remaining tiebreakers (Points head-to-head, goal difference head-to-head, goals scored head-to-head, away goals head-to-head, goal difference total, goals scored total, away goals total, wins total, away wins total) in which case it would go to the final two: disciplinary points and - if still level - UEFA club coefficient (in which case we'd be through, naturally). And there is perhaps a scenario in which Lokomotiv top the group on 11 points

SO, my head hurts now, but all that to say, realistically there's pretty much only two scenarios in which we don't advance at all:

1. Bayern lose all remaining matches; Lokomotiv win all remaining matches and finishes top on 11 points. Atletico finish 2nd with 10, and Bayern finish with 9pts in 3rd.

2. Bayern lose all remaining matches; Salzburg win out to finish with 10 points and Atletico win vs Bayern and Lokomotiv to finish on 10pts as well. Bayern finish 3rd.

Should we gain a single point in pretty much any of the remaining three matches, we're all but guaranteed to advance. :D
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Re: [2020-12-14] Bayern Munich vs ??? — CL draw

Postby Mani » Sat Nov 21, 2020 1:09 am

Might aswell have this thread opened every season before the first matchday
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