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[2021-02-05] Hertha BSC vs Bayern Munich

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What is your prediction for this match?

Poll ended at Fri Feb 05, 2021 8:30 pm

Hertha BSC will win
0
No votes
It will end in a draw
0
No votes
Bayern Munich will win
2
100%
 
Total votes : 2

[2021-02-05] Hertha BSC vs Bayern Munich

Postby FCBayernMunchen » Sat Feb 06, 2021 11:14 am

ramsej84 wrote:re the off - side... one cm mistake and we are done...
we can't play like this anymore especially in the ucl... Lazio will score a lot of goals for sure... so will Palmeiras...


Not at all. Not if it’s working properly. Remember when we were told that Mbappe and Neymar would tear our high line apart?

I would argue that our high line is, in fact, more resistant to mistakes. If you’re defending close to the box, one mistake will likely mean the attacker is in a very good scoring position. With a high line, it means they’re still only halfway through, with a chance for defenders to recover, facing the best goalkeeper in the world (who happens to specialise in 1v1s) and will likely be forced to shoot from fairly far out.

The system is built for players like Neuer and Davies and it works spectacularly. The chances which do get past the offside trap shouldn’t lead to goals most of the time.

Our problem is not the high line but the fact that it hasn’t been implemented well this season. The chances that are getting through aren’t occasional mistakes, they are regular and that is not because of the high line tactic but because it is not being played properly. In fact the vast majority of chances are still not being scored (so not one mistake = done for), but it is simple probability that the more times players overcome a bad offside trap (mainly thanks to Alaba and Süle), the more they will score. If 90% of the time they fail to score, the trap being beaten 3 or 4 times likely means they won’t score (just like yesterday) but if it fails 10 times then they will probably get a goal.

The issues I think are:
1) Alaba and Pavard have become mostly non-factors.
2) Davies has not been playing that much, and his speed is one of the crucial advantages of the high line, as Xabi mentioned.
3) We are not pressing, so we are winning the ball high up the pitch much less often than we should.
4) The midfield has been plagued by injuries and Flick’s decisions.

The last 2 points mean our opponents very quickly reach the last line of defence, however high it is. More than they should be doing. And the first 2 points mean that last line of defence is much weaker than it should be.

As for Lazio, they won’t score many goals, but even if they do, they’ll have to score A LOT, because we’ll put at least 5 past them over 2 games. And I would be disappointed with only 5. Lazio suck. The Serie A easily fools people about a team’s quality based on domestic performances.
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Re: [2021-02-05] Hertha BSC vs Bayern Munich

Postby MUTU » Sat Feb 06, 2021 11:57 am

The problem with a high defence line is that you can concede without making a mistake. Player crosses the ball between defence and keeper and his teammate runs into the empty space. If he is faster than our defenders, he wins and gets into a 1on1. This kind of situation is not possible with a defence sitting deep.
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Re: [2021-02-05] Hertha BSC vs Bayern Munich

Postby FCBayernMunchen » Sat Feb 06, 2021 12:29 pm

MUTU wrote:The problem with a high defence line is that you can concede without making a mistake. Player crosses the ball between defence and keeper and his teammate runs into the empty space. If he is faster than our defenders, he wins and gets into a 1on1. This kind of situation is not possible with a defence sitting deep.
True. Which is why we need fast players, too.
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Re: [2021-02-05] Hertha BSC vs Bayern Munich

Postby MUTU » Sat Feb 06, 2021 1:02 pm

FCBayernMunchen wrote:
MUTU wrote:The problem with a high defence line is that you can concede without making a mistake. Player crosses the ball between defence and keeper and his teammate runs into the empty space. If he is faster than our defenders, he wins and gets into a 1on1. This kind of situation is not possible with a defence sitting deep.
True. Which is why we need fast players, too.

Yes but the attacker always has an advantage because he's facing the goal and could already be running at full speed, whereas the defender needs to stop, turn 180 degrees and accelerate in the opposite direction. And then he'd need to catch up and get in front of the attacker because he cannot tackle from behind.
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Re: [2021-02-05] Hertha BSC vs Bayern Munich

Postby #12 » Sat Feb 06, 2021 1:30 pm

MUTU wrote:
YlonenXabi wrote:But now we literally gift a 1v1 chance every 10-15 minutes.

What, you think we are literally allowing our opponents to be 1v1 against Neuer 6-9 times per match? Now you sound like #12 :lol:
Well, there’s definitely 3 or 4, yesterday it was three...
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Re: [2021-02-05] Hertha BSC vs Bayern Munich

Postby ramsej84 » Sat Feb 06, 2021 1:40 pm

But we cannot rely on luck , the hesitancy of the forward or Neuer's miracles...
Imo we need a balance... especially in dying mins of a game in which we are leading by a solitary goal
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Re: [2021-02-05] Hertha BSC vs Bayern Munich

Postby MUTU » Sat Feb 06, 2021 1:46 pm

ramsej84 wrote:But we cannot rely on luck , the hesitancy of the forward or Neuer's miracles...
Imo we need a balance... especially in dying mins of a game in which we are leading by a solitary goal

Very true, especially on the second point. For whatever reason (I like to think of it as Bavarian pride), I have never seen a match in which Bayern sat super deep near the end of a match in order to protect a lead. And that's cost us on a number of occasions; the 1999 and 2012 Champions League finals immediately spring to mind.
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Re: [2021-02-05] Hertha BSC vs Bayern Munich

Postby #12 » Sat Feb 06, 2021 2:59 pm

MUTU wrote:
ramsej84 wrote:But we cannot rely on luck , the hesitancy of the forward or Neuer's miracles...
Imo we need a balance... especially in dying mins of a game in which we are leading by a solitary goal

Very true, especially on the second point. For whatever reason (I like to think of it as Bavarian pride), I have never seen a match in which Bayern sat super deep near the end of a match in order to protect a lead. And that's cost us on a number of occasions; the 1999 and 2012 Champions League finals immediately spring to mind.
Where all goals were conceded from corners?
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Re: [2021-02-05] Hertha BSC vs Bayern Munich

Postby MUTU » Sat Feb 06, 2021 3:57 pm

Not all. Also go watch replays to find out the reason why we conceded a corner against Chelsea, if you can bring yourself to watch the replays ie.
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Re: [2021-02-05] Hertha BSC vs Bayern Munich

Postby #12 » Sat Feb 06, 2021 4:05 pm

Yes all
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Re: [2021-02-05] Hertha BSC vs Bayern Munich

Postby FCBayernMunchen » Sat Feb 06, 2021 4:22 pm

ramsej84 wrote:But we cannot rely on luck , the hesitancy of the forward or Neuer's miracles...
Imo we need a balance... especially in dying mins of a game in which we are leading by a solitary goal
No one said anything about luck.

Playing a system that plays to your players advantages is the sensible thing to do. If you have a GK who saves almost every 1v1 and is incredibly good coming out of the area, it makes sense to use that. If you have the fastest player in the world, it makes sense to take advantage of that too. If you have midfielders great at pressing, you should use them. We have all of those and our system should take advantage of that, and when it does it wins everything.

Many of you were already saying all of this 6 months ago, and were going on about how Messi and Suarez or Mbappe and Neymar will slaughter us and won’t miss chances likes Lyon or whoever. The result was we put 8 past the first and were the only team to keep a clean sheet vs the latter in I don’t know how long.

The system works. We have seen it does. But it needs discipline and if the players aren’t running and pressing, whether because of tiredness, laziness, complacency or whatever, then it’s not the system or depending on luck that’s the problem, it’s that they’re not doing it as they should be.

Players missing chances because they are forced to shoot from far out with Neuer closing their space has nothing to do with luck or hesitating. It is undeniable that situations like that greatly reduce accuracy and therefore greatly reduce the chances of scoring. It means we are taking away some of the opponents’ advantages and that is exactly what good tactics should do.
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Re: [2021-02-05] Hertha BSC vs Bayern Munich

Postby FCBayernMunchen » Sat Feb 06, 2021 4:24 pm

MUTU wrote:
ramsej84 wrote:But we cannot rely on luck , the hesitancy of the forward or Neuer's miracles...
Imo we need a balance... especially in dying mins of a game in which we are leading by a solitary goal

Very true, especially on the second point. For whatever reason (I like to think of it as Bavarian pride), I have never seen a match in which Bayern sat super deep near the end of a match in order to protect a lead. And that's cost us on a number of occasions; the 1999 and 2012 Champions League finals immediately spring to mind.
I agree with the general meaning but I don’t like sitting back. Taking less risks, yes though.

For example, in 2012, I was terrified the moment DVB came on for Müller. We had controlled the game so well and that move basically signalled “ok, come at us, let’s play closer to the Bayern goal”.
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Re: [2021-02-05] Hertha BSC vs Bayern Munich

Postby PunkCapitalist » Sat Feb 06, 2021 5:17 pm

FCBayernMunchen wrote:
ramsej84 wrote:re the off - side... one cm mistake and we are done...
we can't play like this anymore especially in the ucl... Lazio will score a lot of goals for sure... so will Palmeiras...


Not at all. Not if it’s working properly. Remember when we were told that Mbappe and Neymar would tear our high line apart?

I would argue that our high line is, in fact, more resistant to mistakes. If you’re defending close to the box, one mistake will likely mean the attacker is in a very good scoring position. With a high line, it means they’re still only halfway through, with a chance for defenders to recover, facing the best goalkeeper in the world (who happens to specialise in 1v1s) and will likely be forced to shoot from fairly far out.

The system is built for players like Neuer and Davies and it works spectacularly. The chances which do get past the offside trap shouldn’t lead to goals most of the time.

Our problem is not the high line but the fact that it hasn’t been implemented well this season. The chances that are getting through aren’t occasional mistakes, they are regular and that is not because of the high line tactic but because it is not being played properly. In fact the vast majority of chances are still not being scored (so not one mistake = done for), but it is simple probability that the more times players overcome a bad offside trap (mainly thanks to Alaba and Süle), the more they will score. If 90% of the time they fail to score, the trap being beaten 3 or 4 times likely means they won’t score (just like yesterday) but if it fails 10 times then they will probably get a goal.

The issues I think are:
1) Alaba and Pavard have become mostly non-factors.
2) Davies has not been playing that much, and his speed is one of the crucial advantages of the high line, as Xabi mentioned.
3) We are not pressing, so we are winning the ball high up the pitch much less often than we should.
4) The midfield has been plagued by injuries and Flick’s decisions.

The last 2 points mean our opponents very quickly reach the last line of defence, however high it is. More than they should be doing. And the first 2 points mean that last line of defence is much weaker than it should be.

As for Lazio, they won’t score many goals, but even if they do, they’ll have to score A LOT, because we’ll put at least 5 past them over 2 games. And I would be disappointed with only 5. Lazio suck. The Serie A easily fools people about a team’s quality based on domestic performances.
There is another factor that makes the highlife inappropriate for Bayern this season. We no longer have Thiago. Kimmich does not do nearly as much defensively and is not nearly as press resistant.

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