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[2021-12-04] Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern Munich

Discussions on the German Bundesliga matches.

What is your prediction for this match?

Poll ended at Sat Dec 04, 2021 6:30 pm

Borussia Dortmund will win
0
No votes
It will end in a draw
1
25%
Bayern Munich will win
3
75%
 
Total votes : 4

Re: [2021-12-04] Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern Munich

Postby #12 » Wed Dec 01, 2021 12:47 pm


Goretzka with a question mark as well…

They‘ll kill us out there…
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Re: [2021-12-04] Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern Munich

Postby MUTU » Wed Dec 01, 2021 12:50 pm

#12 wrote:
YlonenXabi wrote:Props to him for being so committed to the team but... I don't know. Even if they beat us we will still be champions. And if they do I'm sure they will celebrate it as a title :lol: They're treating this game like a do or die one and it really isn't

I'm very disappointed with Dortmund. They've got the potential to be much better than this.
If they win, the momentum is theirs… You seem to forget that 6 points of our differences in recent years came from defeating them… Looking at it from that angle one game alone has game changer potential…

Momentum? Give me a break. It's the 14th matchday.
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Re: [2021-12-04] Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern Munich

Postby Ottomeister87 » Wed Dec 01, 2021 1:22 pm

BVB has invalidated all 67500 tickets sold already, since they kept in mind that it wont happen with so many viewers in the stadium. They are waiting for tomorrow what is decided and restart ticket sales, if any are allowed.
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Re: [2021-12-04] Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern Munich

Postby MUTU » Wed Dec 01, 2021 1:40 pm

It won't be so much fun beating them in Dortmund when their Piss Wall is not present.
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Re: [2021-12-04] Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern Munich

Postby ramsej84 » Wed Dec 01, 2021 1:41 pm

Too many missing ...
Big problems ahead
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Re: [2021-12-04] Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern Munich

Postby MUTU » Wed Dec 01, 2021 1:43 pm

Goretzka and Stanisic are doubts. No information yet about them.
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Re: [2021-12-04] Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern Munich

Postby MUTU » Wed Dec 01, 2021 1:48 pm

MUTU wrote:Goretzka and Stanisic are doubts. No information yet about them.

Worst case scenario:

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Re: [2021-12-04] Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern Munich

Postby ramsej84 » Wed Dec 01, 2021 1:58 pm

MUTU wrote:
MUTU wrote:Goretzka and Stanisic are doubts. No information yet about them.

Worst case scenario:

Musiala there...????
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Re: [2021-12-04] Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern Munich

Postby MUTU » Wed Dec 01, 2021 2:03 pm

Who would you play instead of Musiala? Roca? Cuisance? Not sure if Sabitzer will be fit, hence the "worst case scenario".
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Re: [2021-12-04] Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern Munich

Postby aterford » Wed Dec 01, 2021 3:34 pm

MUTU wrote:
#12 wrote:
YlonenXabi wrote:Props to him for being so committed to the team but... I don't know. Even if they beat us we will still be champions. And if they do I'm sure they will celebrate it as a title :lol: They're treating this game like a do or die one and it really isn't

I'm very disappointed with Dortmund. They've got the potential to be much better than this.
If they win, the momentum is theirs… You seem to forget that 6 points of our differences in recent years came from defeating them… Looking at it from that angle one game alone has game changer potential…

Momentum? Give me a break. It's the 14th matchday.


Yeah, this. After the Dortmund match there's still 20 matches remaining and - momentum or not - Bayern will be (rightfully) favored to finish with a better record in those 20 matches than Dortmund will.

So even if they do manage a win and go two points clear, they've then got to maintain at least a 2-pt cushion ahead of us for 20 matches. I don't say it just to sh*t on Dortmund or to puff ourselves up, but what reason would we have to believe that Dortmund would take equal or more points from 20 matches than we would?

For consideration, through 13 matches played, Bayern have earned 33.31 "expected points" (xPTS), good for first - against 31 "actual" points, of course.
Spoiler: show
Expected points is more or less a function of expected goals for and expected goals against and uses these measures to figure up the number of points a team could generally 'expect' to earn on average given their performances

Dortmund are second on just 22.48 xPTS, against 30 actual points.
In other words, over the course of a full season, right now you'd expect us to finish on roughly 87 points and Dortmund with something like 59. Which would of course not be particularly close at all. I guess that calculation would naturally change a bit were they to beat us, but in spite of some lackluster performances we are far and away the prohibitive favorites to win the league still by just about every predictive measure we have.
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Re: [2021-12-04] Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern Munich

Postby PunkCapitalist » Wed Dec 01, 2021 4:02 pm

aterford wrote:
MUTU wrote:
#12 wrote:[quote="YlonenXabi"]Props to him for being so committed to the team but... I don't know. Even if they beat us we will still be champions. And if they do I'm sure they will celebrate it as a title They're treating this game like a do or die one and it really isn't

I'm very disappointed with Dortmund. They've got the potential to be much better than this.
If they win, the momentum is theirs… You seem to forget that 6 points of our differences in recent years came from defeating them… Looking at it from that angle one game alone has game changer potential…

Momentum? Give me a break. It's the 14th matchday.


Yeah, this. After the Dortmund match there's still 20 matches remaining and - momentum or not - Bayern will be (rightfully) favored to finish with a better record in those 20 matches than Dortmund will.

So even if they do manage a win and go two points clear, they've then got to maintain at least a 2-pt cushion ahead of us for 20 matches. I don't say it just to sh*t on Dortmund or to puff ourselves up, but what reason would we have to believe that Dortmund would take equal or more points from 20 matches than we would?

For consideration, through 13 matches played, Bayern have earned 33.31 "expected points" (xPTS), good for first - against 31 "actual" points, of course.
Spoiler: show
Expected points is more or less a function of expected goals for and expected goals against and uses these measures to figure up the number of points a team could generally 'expect' to earn on average given their performances

Dortmund are second on just 22.48 xPTS, against 30 actual points.
In other words, over the course of a full season, right now you'd expect us to finish on roughly 87 points and Dortmund with something like 59. Which would of course not be particularly close at all. I guess that calculation would naturally change a bit were they to beat us, but in spite of some lackluster performances we are far and away the prohibitive favorites to win the league still by just about every predictive measure we have.[/quote]Tbf, actual points per game don't make us prohivitive winners hahaha you're assuming over the course of the season actual points will converge to expected points and that is not necessarily the case in short timespans. Favre, iirc, vastly outperformed expectations consistently for 2 or 3 seasons with Gladbach.

PD: playing the devil's advocate here. BuLi is already Bayern's lol
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Re: [2021-12-04] Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern Munich

Postby MUTU » Wed Dec 01, 2021 4:27 pm

Even if they win on Saturday, winning the title is still within our hands, because if we were to win every remaining match we're mathematically champions.
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Re: [2021-12-04] Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern Munich

Postby Ottomeister87 » Wed Dec 01, 2021 5:43 pm

ramsej84 wrote:
MUTU wrote:
MUTU wrote:Goretzka and Stanisic are doubts. No information yet about them.

Worst case scenario:

Musiala there...????
Viel Gluck


If Gore cant play thats our only option. Roca and especially Cuisance have no business in this game without any actual real playing time this season. Sabitzer is still out for 2 or 3 weeks so he is not an option either.

Gore/Tolisso or Tolisso/Musi it is. Dont think it would be Gore/Musi from the start.
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Re: [2021-12-04] Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern Munich

Postby ramsej84 » Wed Dec 01, 2021 5:56 pm

Nianzou /// is he OK or still out with that shoulder inj
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Re: [2021-12-04] Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern Munich

Postby MUTU » Wed Dec 01, 2021 6:45 pm

ramsej84 wrote:Nianzou /// is he OK or still out with that shoulder inj

He's still out AFAIK.
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