FC Bayern Forum

aterford wrote:

#12 wrote:Meh... Progress is a process... We had one slightly better game that could've easily meant REgress...
Thing is, we would need to be at like 1.1, 1.2 goals conceded a game to say we need tondo better... We're at 2 per game in 2021... That’s around 1.4 too many to contest for the CL - and that's the point: it‘s a HUGE development we need and for that time is running out...

Yes. Progress is a process. And every process has to start somewhere. Perhaps this 'process' started yesterday?
Anyways, you understand how averages work. You can't go from two goals per game conceded after 15 matches to 1.1, 1.2 goals per game conceded after 16. Indeed, it's a process. Lucky for us - time is not running out. At the moment we're at 1.56 goals per match conceded in the league. Prior to yesterday's match, that number was an even 1.6 per match. Even a clean sheet in our next 3 matches in a row would only drop that number down to 1.32 goals per match. And so on, you get the point. In any case, we only conceded once and allowed just 0.76 xG to a team who - your words - was the most in-form in Europe. That has to be viewed as progress, no?

Funny enough though: as it relates to the CL....we're conceding exactly 1.2 goals per match in the CL this season. And I'm sure the likely response will be something along the lines of "Well, we haven't played in the CL in a month, our form now is worse" which is certainly true. But as above: if you're going to say that our form from a month ago in the CL "doesn't count" or whatnot, then we should apply the same standard to our current form. We're just as far away from that UCL-form as we are from our next UCL match. It should be readily apparent that - as I've said - a team's form does fluctuate over a given season and - quite a bit can change in the span of a month, one way or another.

Considering that:
We've already shown ourselves to be able to perform at a very, very high level in the UCL..
...and we're still a month away from our next UCL fixture...
...and every team does go through variations in their form...
...and our poor run of form was still good enough to see us go from 2nd place and a point out of first to 1st place and ahead by four in the league - and only go out via a last-minute goal and penalties in the cup...
...and our most recent match showed an improvement both to the eye and in the 'measurables'...

...I don't think there's much reason to fret about a hypothetical 'if we don't improve' scenario just yet. Like I said: maybe in a month, but now? Premature.