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[2021-10-03] Bayern Munich vs Eintracht Frankfurt

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What is your prediction for this match?

Poll ended at Sun Oct 03, 2021 4:30 pm

Bayern Munich will win
4
100%
It will end in a draw
0
No votes
Eintracht Frankfurt will win
0
No votes
 
Total votes : 4

Re: [2021-10-03] Bayern Munich vs Eintracht Frankfurt

Postby #12 » Mon Oct 04, 2021 9:04 pm

aterford wrote:I can't be too upset about it. We didn't play great but I don't think we played particularly poorly. If we played that exact same match 100 times I'd bet we still end up winning it 90 times out of 100 at worst.

I've seen a handful of different xG tallies. FWIW:

Bayern 2.05, Frankfurt 0.59
Bayern 2.84, Frankfurt 0.55
Bayern 2.18, Frankfurt 0.39
Bayern 2.54, Frankfurt 0.35
Bayern 2.2, Frankfurt 0.5 OR Bayern 3.8, Frankfurt 0.5 (shot-based vs non-shot xG)

So it is what it is, it happens. Like I said, that's a match we usually win, but sometimes things don't go your way.

Kind of random odd thing. I don't know if it's an Oktoberfest hangover or what, but lately that end of September/start of October period has been rough for us. In fact, in the last 10 years, for whatever reason Pep is the only manager who's had a good experience with that time period.

21/22 - Nagelsmann - 1:2 loss to Frankfurt on 3. October
20/21 - Flick - 1:4 loss to Hoffenheim on 27. September
19/20 - Kovac - 1:2 loss to Hoffenheim on 5. October
18/19 - Kovac - 1:1 draw to Augsburg on 25. September, 0:2 loss to Hertha on 28. September, 1:1 draw to Ajax on 2. October, and 0:3 loss to Gladbach on 6. October
17/18 - Ancelotti - 0:3 loss to PSG on 27. September; Sagnol - 2:2 draw to Hertha on 1. October
16/17 - Ancelotti - 0:1 loss to Atletico on 28. September, 1:1 draw to Koln on 1. October
15/16 - Guardiola - 5:0 win vs Zagreb on 29. September, 5:1 win vs Dortmund on 4. October
14/15 - Guardiola - 1:0 win vs Moscow on 30. September, 4:0 win vs Hannover on 4. October
13/14 - Guardiola - 1:0 win vs Wolfsburg on 28. September, 3:1 win vs Man City on 2. October
12/13 - Heynckes - 1:3 loss vs BATE Borisov on 2. October
Yeah that’s what Otto and I pointed out already: we suck in fall…
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Re: [2021-10-03] Bayern Munich vs Eintracht Frankfurt

Postby MUTU » Mon Oct 04, 2021 9:04 pm

#12 wrote:
MUTU wrote:
#12 wrote:2/3 are… Dortmund are ok, but they underestimated us…
We‘ll see about Leverkusen…

Neverkusen? I don't expect to live long enough to see Leverkusen finishing a season ahead of us.
They have, you just forgot…


I never said they didn't. I'm clearly talking about the future.
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Re: [2021-10-03] Bayern Munich vs Eintracht Frankfurt

Postby #12 » Mon Oct 04, 2021 9:06 pm

MUTU wrote:
#12 wrote:
Alexander wrote:"And you want to tell me they had a good start to the season?"

So now it is about how the season started and not how they have a squad equal to ours. I guess that means Juve are shit although they have a player once valued at 120 million who rode the bench. Freiburg will be a real test?

What do you say about Real losing twice last week? PSG? City with four wins out of seven in the league? Just wondering if you see us having a chance against them.
No it’s about bringing quality to the field! And they have barely done that or do you think they have a worse squad than Wolfsburg, Mainz and Brügge?

Juve ARE shit and the rest you mentioned play in a better league… We stand a chance, but not playing like we did recently and especially yesterday…

No idea what you don’t get about the necessity to bounce back in order to actually be considered good…

Juve are shit lol. I wonder which clubs you even consider mediocre given you consider Juventus to be inferior to that?
For the sake of argument… You must be new here since you don’t know I tend to be hyperbolic…

Yes, Juve are bot shit, but as mediocre as ist gets which is basically just that…
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Re: [2021-10-03] Bayern Munich vs Eintracht Frankfurt

Postby #12 » Mon Oct 04, 2021 9:08 pm

MUTU wrote:
#12 wrote:
MUTU wrote:[quote="#12"]2/3 are… Dortmund are ok, but they underestimated us…
We‘ll see about Leverkusen…

Neverkusen? I don't expect to live long enough to see Leverkusen finishing a season ahead of us.
They have, you just forgot…


I never said they didn't. I'm clearly talking about the future.[/quote]Well it was definitely ambiguous… And don’t be too confident…
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Re: [2021-10-03] Bayern Munich vs Eintracht Frankfurt

Postby Ottomeister87 » Mon Oct 04, 2021 9:09 pm

Its odd though, since the time around Oktoberfest once was an almost unbeatable team feat..
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Re: [2021-10-03] Bayern Munich vs Eintracht Frankfurt

Postby aterford » Mon Oct 04, 2021 9:16 pm

#12 wrote:Yeah that’s what Otto and I pointed out already: we suck in fall…


Yeah, kinda so, but for whatever reason this particular week in particular has been pretty rough lately.

But, hey, not the worst thing in the world. A lot better to have a few bumps in Sept/Oct than to have them in April/May.
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Re: [2021-10-03] Bayern Munich vs Eintracht Frankfurt

Postby #12 » Mon Oct 04, 2021 9:19 pm

aterford wrote:
#12 wrote:Yeah that’s what Otto and I pointed out already: we suck in fall…


Yeah, kinda so, but for whatever reason this particular week in particular has been pretty rough lately.

But, hey, not the worst thing in the world. A lot better to have a few bumps in Sept/Oct than to have them in April/May.
As long as they are just that… I don’t have a good feeling about this… Also, I cannot remember when last we blew a match - and a crucial one at that - before an international break…
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Re: [2021-10-03] Bayern Munich vs Eintracht Frankfurt

Postby sherpthederp » Mon Oct 04, 2021 9:23 pm

The only match I’ve been to at the Allianz was that defeat to Hoffenheim under Kovac. Still have the plastic MaßKrug from the stadium lol.
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Re: [2021-10-03] Bayern Munich vs Eintracht Frankfurt

Postby aterford » Mon Oct 04, 2021 9:42 pm

#12 wrote:
aterford wrote:
#12 wrote:Yeah that’s what Otto and I pointed out already: we suck in fall…


Yeah, kinda so, but for whatever reason this particular week in particular has been pretty rough lately.

But, hey, not the worst thing in the world. A lot better to have a few bumps in Sept/Oct than to have them in April/May.
As long as they are just that… I don’t have a good feeling about this… Also, I cannot remember when last we blew a match - and a crucial one at that - before an international break…


Wasn't it just last year that we lost to Hoffenheim right before the international break? Maybe I have the dates wrong, but that was on 5.10 and we didn't resume play till 19.10 so I assume that was it...

I don't know if I would have really called this a "crucial match" either. Frankly I'd have been a bit more worried if it were against a more realistic title opponent, but at the moment I'm inclined to call this more or less a fluke. Like I said, we're winning that match 9 times out of 10. If we'd been playing poorly and managing to get results then I'd be a bit worried, but thankfully that's not the case at the moment.

Outside of that match, our underlying metrics are very, very good. We are BY FAR the best attacking team in the league. We've scored 24 goals on 24 xG. Leverkusen and BVB are the next closest, with 20 and 19 scored, but they have done so on just 11 and 14 xG, respectively. In general, over the course of a season, you'd expect that to level out a bit more. We are far and away better than every other team in the league in terms of offensive "pressure" (we spend far more time with the ball near the opponent's penalty area than others), and our expected points put us very comfortably in first (At the moment we are on 17.54 while Dortmund, Union, Mainz, and Leipzig make up 2, 3, 4, 5 with 12.27, 12.12, 12.08, and 11.72, respectively. We don't find Leverkusen until 7th, with 11.17 xPts.)

And our defense has been similarly excellent. We are second in the league for expected goals against (and it's close. We're on 6.15 xGA, while Mainz are first with 5.63), and first in the league with regards to opponents' possession near our goal (just as we spend more time than any other team with the ball near the opponent's goal, our opponents have less time near our goal than they would against any other team).

So, all the underlying numbers are good. We have been performing very well; we're pretty clearly the best team in the league by all available measures at the moment. It'd be one thing if we'd been playing poorly and falling backwards into points, but at the moment we should probably take this loss to be the exception, rather than the rule (and, like before, I don't think we actually played that poorly).

It's probably also worth noting that 538's win probabilities had us at 84% to win the league prior to this loss and now at "just" 76%. That's certainly a sizeable swing but we're still prohibitive favorites, and just a few weeks ago we were at 74% and 79%, so it's more or less about where you might expect things to be at this point in the season. The match against Leverkusen will be tricky, but right now we're given as 60% favorites to win (20% to lose, 20% to draw) and I suspect if we get a win against them it will probably jump right back up to 85% or so.

Beyond that I think the schedule is actually fairly favorable to us. I've mentioned it elsewhere I think, but we've already had Gladbach away (D), Leipzig away (W), and have Leverkusen away coming up, followed by BVB away towards the end of the Hinrunde. But if we can get even a "decent" result in those couple of matches we should be feeling fairly comfy heading into Winterpause. We'll largely be playing these tough opponents at home in the Ruckrunde (Gladbach, Leipzig, Leverkusen, Dortmund all at home in Spring)

So, I wouldn't worry too much yet. If we lose vs Leverkusen that may sound a few alarms, but it's still a long way from time to panic. And if we win...we should feel very, very confident if that's the case.
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Re: [2021-10-03] Bayern Munich vs Eintracht Frankfurt

Postby Alexander » Tue Oct 05, 2021 5:11 am

"Leipzig lost to Brugge"

Yes, and Chelsea lost to shitty Juve. Perhaps Serie A is stronger than Premier League.

"NOW we have to win at Leverkusen"

Because if we don`t the league is lost. Is that your point?

"that the three PL sides and Shetty are definitely not worse"

I respect your opinion but what is so impressive with Chelsea losing to Juve and beating Zenit 1-0? I guess you would have slaughtered Bayern with that kind of performances.
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Re: [2021-10-03] Bayern Munich vs Eintracht Frankfurt

Postby #12 » Tue Oct 05, 2021 5:26 am

Alexander wrote:"Leipzig lost to Brugge"

Yes, and Chelsea lost to shitty Juve. Perhaps Serie A is stronger than Premier League.

"NOW we have to win at Leverkusen"

Because if we don`t the league is lost. Is that your point?

"that the three PL sides and Shetty are definitely not worse"

I respect your opinion but what is so impressive with Chelsea losing to Juve and beating Zenit 1-0? I guess you would have slaughtered Bayern with that kind of performances.
What is your fucking problem? Did I rant? Did I go on for ages how shot we are? It was fucking Frankfurt! At home! And it wasn’t even a draw after a LEAD! Am I allowed to point out that that‘s not good or is it hurting your highness‘ feelings?
For fuck‘s sakes, all I‘m saying is for this to just be a slip-up, we have to prove it…

And if we lose at Leverkusen it is not lost but that whole shit about goal records and whatnot we read here in the last weeks should definitely be grounded again…

Also, are you deliberately acting stupid? Brugge is not even in Ligue1… It’s simply about German teams pulling shit in Europe, losing to all sorts of crap left right and center… And that is robbing claims of a decent Bundesliga of their base…
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Re: [2021-10-03] Bayern Munich vs Eintracht Frankfurt

Postby Alexander » Tue Oct 05, 2021 6:35 am

"What is your fucking problem?"

No problem, just discussing with you.

"It was fucking Frankfurt! At home!

Yes, losing was bad. I agree. My point is that it seems you always find excuses for Real, PSG,City, Chelsea etc but we are shit. Almost that you are glad when we lose so you can come here and laugh.

"for this just to be a slip-up, we have to prove it"

I think we have done that many times otherwise we wouldn`t have won the league nine times in a row.

I am curious, are you ever happy with Bayern? When we won the treble with Flick it was a lot of downplaying our achievement. Winning Bundesliga means nothing because it is ours to lose. Do you get any joy following the club? Perhaps Sané playing better is something good?
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Re: [2021-10-03] Bayern Munich vs Eintracht Frankfurt

Postby Ottomeister87 » Tue Oct 05, 2021 9:13 am

Thing is, the way it happened was totally our own fault. But would we all be talking like this if we actually managed to use our chances? Lets say if we would have won 4-1 or 5-2 which was possible, none would talk about the lack of missed chances, poor focus on defense, maybe point out Upa had a bad day and thats it.
I'd rather have this loss happen like the way it did NOW ( and its not that we got outplayed or performed overly poor in play) because this will focus up for Leverkusen instead of HAPPENING in the Leverkusen game.
They have 2 weeks to read all the fun and negative shit about the Frankfurt game and we know what that does to Bayern players, especially when it comes down to it.
Nagelsmann said before things went a bit in this direction and now they didnt ourscore that stuff, so they know they need to improve that.
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Re: [2021-10-03] Bayern Munich vs Eintracht Frankfurt

Postby #12 » Tue Oct 05, 2021 12:00 pm

Alexander wrote:"What is your fucking problem?"

No problem, just discussing with you.

"It was fucking Frankfurt! At home!

Yes, losing was bad. I agree. My point is that it seems you always find excuses for Real, PSG,City, Chelsea etc but we are shit. Almost that you are glad when we lose so you can come here and laugh.

"for this just to be a slip-up, we have to prove it"

I think we have done that many times otherwise we wouldn`t have won the league nine times in a row.

I am curious, are you ever happy with Bayern? When we won the treble with Flick it was a lot of downplaying our achievement. Winning Bundesliga means nothing because it is ours to lose. Do you get any joy following the club? Perhaps Sané playing better is something good?
I am happy most of the time, doesn’t mean I can’t be angry when things go wrong ir pount out mistakes… Wanna ask Nagelsmann or Kimmich the same questions in analyses?
I don’t find excuses for anyone - I simply don’t give a fuck… But I‘m sure you can explain what exactly RM losing to Sheriff or PSG losing to Rennes has to do with Bayern fucking Munich and this game?
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Re: [2021-10-03] Bayern Munich vs Eintracht Frankfurt

Postby YlonenXabi » Tue Oct 05, 2021 12:06 pm

It's also worth mentioning that we tend to have this type of performances in Bundesliga but not in CL.

Like I said last year, it really seems like our players get overconfident in BL because they don't see any serious competitors and then whenever we have a couple of poor performances in a row they immediately shift up a gear and get back to business.

And that would explain why our statistics in CL are way better than in Bundesliga
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