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[2019-08-31] Bayern Munich vs 1. FSV Mainz 05

Discussions on the German Bundesliga matches.
 

What is your prediction for this match?

Poll ended at Sat Aug 31, 2019 2:30 pm

Bayern Munich will win
3
100%
It will end in a draw
0
No votes
1. FSV Mainz 05 will win
0
No votes
 
Total votes : 3

Re: [2019-08-31] Bayern Munich vs 1. FSV Mainz 05

Postby MUTU » Tue Sep 03, 2019 3:53 pm

Based on what don't you think they would? AFAIK, in recent years the Bundesliga was the only league with participants in European competitions who got themselves relegated (Hertha BSC) or not even in that division (Alemannia Aachen).

This means that the participants in Europe are relatively close in quality to the relegated clubs.

If the BL is not far in quality to the EPL in the CL, and if relegated clubs are not much worse than Bayern and BVB, this means that relegated Bundesliga clubs are not too much worse than Man City and Liverpool, so if I wanted to make a bet for Union Berlin's place if they hypothetically played in the EPL this season I would say... 12th place (out of 20 of course).
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Re: [2019-08-31] Bayern Munich vs 1. FSV Mainz 05

Postby #12 » Tue Sep 03, 2019 5:04 pm

This is mere speculation on your part...
I might as well argue focusing on one single game and then doing well is easier than doing it 34 or 38 times...
For every Frankfurt (EL semis), however there are 5 Leipzigs (lose against their feeder team), Hoffenheims, Neverkusens and whatnot proving the exact opposite...
And I won’t even go into how mich Bayern actually ARE inferior to the teams you mentioned...
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- Keep Hoeness and Rummenigge far away from the team!
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Re: [2019-08-31] Bayern Munich vs 1. FSV Mainz 05

Postby MUTU » Tue Sep 03, 2019 5:35 pm

#12 wrote:This is mere speculation on your part...
I might as well argue focusing on one single game and then doing well is easier than doing it 34 or 38 times...
For every Frankfurt (EL semis), however there are 5 Leipzigs (lose against their feeder team), Hoffenheims, Neverkusens and whatnot proving the exact opposite...
And I won’t even go into how mich Bayern actually ARE inferior to the teams you mentioned...

How many EFL Championship clubs have reached the round of 32 of the UEFA Cup?

The Bundesliga is consistently the league in Europe with the most distinct participants, indicative of strength in depth. In other leagues, there's a big, distinctive step in quality between the teams participating in Europe and the rest. Not so much in Germany, where if you were to plot quality on a graph, the result would be a much smoother curve.
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Re: [2019-08-31] Bayern Munich vs 1. FSV Mainz 05

Postby #12 » Tue Sep 03, 2019 10:24 pm

Yes, but my point is a different one: it’s on a very low level!

I mean IIRC the last German club to win the EL/UEFA Cup was? Us? Or Schalke? I don’t even know since that was when German soccer was still relevant in Europe...
- Rangnick or ten Hag in!
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- Get a REAL sports director (Rangnick?)!
- Keep Hoeness and Rummenigge far away from the team!
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Re: [2019-08-31] Bayern Munich vs 1. FSV Mainz 05

Postby MUTU » Wed Sep 04, 2019 9:36 am

#12 wrote:Yes, but my point is a different one: it’s on a very low level!

I mean IIRC the last German club to win the EL/UEFA Cup was? Us? Or Schalke? I don’t even know since that was when German soccer was still relevant in Europe...

I'm not comparing the top 7 or so teams. I'm comparing the bottom clubs with the top clubs.

You keep deviating from the original argument which was whether or not we should decrease or increase the number of participants in the Bundesliga. To do that, you just need to compare the difference in points between the top and bottom.

The quality of the league compared to other leagues is, admittedly, quite irrelevant towards this measure. There is no need to keep pushing the discussion in this direction. Anyone who has been reading BayernForum.com for more than a couple of hours will already know your opinion on this anyway.

Instead focus on the difference between top and bottom across the top leagues in Europe. I think you would find out that the difference between top and bottom in Germany is low compared to the other top 5 leagues. This means that the Bundesliga affords to increase to 20 teams to become on par with the other leagues. This will, in turn, increase revenue for all clubs in the Bundesliga through both gate money and TV revenue.
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Re: [2019-08-31] Bayern Munich vs 1. FSV Mainz 05

Postby #12 » Wed Sep 04, 2019 9:39 am

Well, okay then, still not convinced though...

If you compare first to 20th in PL and first to 18th in BuLi, you’re bending the truth... You should compare first and 18th in both...
Also, I think that would further German irrelevance on an international level...
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- Keep Hoeness and Rummenigge far away from the team!
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Re: [2019-08-31] Bayern Munich vs 1. FSV Mainz 05

Postby MUTU » Wed Sep 04, 2019 10:38 am

Please don't tell me how to do maths because I believe I know more about this subject than you. You need to compare top to bottom. If a league hypothetically ends with the top 18 teams all on equal points but their league is composed of 25 teams and positions 19 to 25 achieve 4 points each (the absolute minimum) then I'm sure you agree that it makes sense for the league to trim down to 18 participants to maintain competitive balance.

In Germany, the top teams in 2. Bundesliga are not far in quality from the Bundesliga average, that's why I think the Bundesliga affords to increase to 20.

FFS we have former European champions playing in the 2nd division not to mention Stuttgart or Kaiserslautern.
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Re: [2019-08-31] Bayern Munich vs 1. FSV Mainz 05

Postby #12 » Wed Sep 04, 2019 11:01 am

So? Past success is not an indicator of a club’s current potential...

And I wouldn’t have to tell you about math had you not done it wrong... Your argument is valid, but again going in another direction: to compare PL and Bundesliga, it would have to be 1-18 for both, nit 1-18 and 1-20...

And I know you know this and I also know your argument goes in another direction than mine...
- Rangnick or ten Hag in!
- Bring a DM, a winger (Sané) and Havertz!
- Get a REAL sports director (Rangnick?)!
- Keep Hoeness and Rummenigge far away from the team!
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Re: [2019-08-31] Bayern Munich vs 1. FSV Mainz 05

Postby r10 » Wed Sep 04, 2019 11:01 am

#12 wrote:You should compare first and 18th in both.
You should exclude results achieved against top 2.
BTW the disadvantage of 18 is Lewandowski playing 34 ligue matches in a season (as not 38 in other ligues) has no mathematical chance for Golden Boots award :evil:.
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Re: [2019-08-31] Bayern Munich vs 1. FSV Mainz 05

Postby MUTU » Wed Sep 04, 2019 11:26 am

#12 wrote:So? Past success is not an indicator of a club’s current potential...

And I wouldn’t have to tell you about math had you not done it wrong... Your argument is valid, but again going in another direction: to compare PL and Bundesliga, it would have to be 1-18 for both, nit 1-18 and 1-20...

And I know you know this and I also know your argument goes in another direction than mine...

No. You don't. You compare top to bottom. I'm setting EPL as a benchmark to see what qualifies as acceptable competitive discrepancy within the benchmark league. If the EPL with 20 teams and that big discrepancy is deemed acceptable (there are no talks to reduce the teams) then one should consider increasing the German one because the discrepancy is much smaller.
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Re: [2019-08-31] Bayern Munich vs 1. FSV Mainz 05

Postby #12 » Wed Sep 04, 2019 11:36 am

MUTU wrote:
#12 wrote:So? Past success is not an indicator of a club’s current potential...

And I wouldn’t have to tell you about math had you not done it wrong... Your argument is valid, but again going in another direction: to compare PL and Bundesliga, it would have to be 1-18 for both, nit 1-18 and 1-20...

And I know you know this and I also know your argument goes in another direction than mine...

No. You don't. You compare top to bottom. I'm setting EPL as a benchmark to see what qualifies as acceptable competitive discrepancy within the benchmark league. If the EPL with 20 teams and that big discrepancy is deemed acceptable (there are no talks to reduce the teams) then one should consider increasing the German one because the discrepancy is much smaller.


I can agree on that... Doesn’t indicate PL's relative strength to BuLi though which I was aiming at...
- Rangnick or ten Hag in!
- Bring a DM, a winger (Sané) and Havertz!
- Get a REAL sports director (Rangnick?)!
- Keep Hoeness and Rummenigge far away from the team!
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Re: [2019-08-31] Bayern Munich vs 1. FSV Mainz 05

Postby Ed. » Wed Sep 04, 2019 12:48 pm

MUTU wrote:Based on what don't you think they would? AFAIK, in recent years the Bundesliga was the only league with participants in European competitions who got themselves relegated (Hertha BSC) or not even in that division (Alemannia Aachen).


Flawed argument.

A team fighting relegation or even at a slight risk of relegation in the EPL has to consider the loss of potentially 100mil+ (which is apparently what the bottom placed team makes) in loss of revenue vs a run in the Europa league where I think the winners make 20m in total at most.

A team in a similar position in the BL at the bottom has no valid reason to de-prioritize the EL. They make peanuts at the bottom and a good run in the EL is a great way to fill the coffers.
Last edited by Ed. on Wed Sep 04, 2019 1:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: [2019-08-31] Bayern Munich vs 1. FSV Mainz 05

Postby Ed. » Wed Sep 04, 2019 1:08 pm

MUTU wrote:Instead focus on the difference between top and bottom across the top leagues in Europe. I think you would find out that the difference between top and bottom in Germany is low compared to the other top 5 leagues. This means that the Bundesliga affords to increase to 20 teams to become on par with the other leagues. This will, in turn, increase revenue for all clubs in the Bundesliga through both gate money and TV revenue.


You make a valid point in the competitiveness of the league and solely from that point of view quality of the league is, yes, irrelevant.
But when you start talking about TV revenue you can no longer disregard it because the relative quality of the leagues isn't even a subjective debate in the TV market as it is in these forums. It's pretty darn clear where broadcasters want to put their money.

So. increasing TV revenue by increasing the number of teams is akin to saying you'r going to increase the price of all dishes in a restaurant just because you've added a couple of new ones.
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Re: [2019-08-31] Bayern Munich vs 1. FSV Mainz 05

Postby MUTU » Wed Sep 04, 2019 3:47 pm

Ed. wrote:
MUTU wrote:Instead focus on the difference between top and bottom across the top leagues in Europe. I think you would find out that the difference between top and bottom in Germany is low compared to the other top 5 leagues. This means that the Bundesliga affords to increase to 20 teams to become on par with the other leagues. This will, in turn, increase revenue for all clubs in the Bundesliga through both gate money and TV revenue.


You make a valid point in the competitiveness of the league and solely from that point of view quality of the league is, yes, irrelevant.
But when you start talking about TV revenue you can no longer disregard it because the relative quality of the leagues isn't even a subjective debate in the TV market as it is in these forums. It's pretty darn clear where broadcasters want to put their money.

So. increasing TV revenue by increasing the number of teams is akin to saying you'r going to increase the price of all dishes in a restaurant just because you've added a couple of new ones.

I don't follow your logic. Right now teams are being paid for broadcasting rights of 34 matches a season. If they add two more teams, it means that Bayern will start playing 4 extra matches, so of course they will be paid more if they're playing more.

If you want to use the restaurant argument you may want to say that because you added 2 more tables you expect more revenue at your restaurant that's always fully booked.
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Re: [2019-08-31] Bayern Munich vs 1. FSV Mainz 05

Postby MUTU » Wed Sep 04, 2019 3:50 pm

Ed. wrote:
MUTU wrote:Based on what don't you think they would? AFAIK, in recent years the Bundesliga was the only league with participants in European competitions who got themselves relegated (Hertha BSC) or not even in that division (Alemannia Aachen).


Flawed argument.

A team fighting relegation or even at a slight risk of relegation in the EPL has to consider the loss of potentially 100mil+ (which is apparently what the bottom placed team makes) in loss of revenue vs a run in the Europa league where I think the winners make 20m in total at most.

A team in a similar position in the BL at the bottom has no valid reason to de-prioritize the EL. They make peanuts at the bottom and a good run in the EL is a great way to fill the coffers.


I did mention Hertha Berlin and yes, maybe they might not have gotten relegated if they completely ignored the European competitions and played with their reserves there. But it shows that the difference between a European spot and relegation is not great in Germany. One season you're there, the next you're down. The competitive balance is what I'm comparing and not the quality, remember.

Also what about Alemannia Aachen? How many Championship clubs have played in the UEFA Cup? And they even progressed to the round of 32.
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