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[2020-12-19] Bayer Leverkusen vs Bayern Munich

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What is your prediction for this match?

Poll ended at Sat Dec 19, 2020 6:30 pm

Bayer 04 Leverkusen will win
0
No votes
It will end in a draw
1
33%
Bayern Munich will win
2
67%
 
Total votes : 3

Re: [2020-12-19] Bayer Leverkusen vs Bayern Munich

Postby r10 » Sat Dec 19, 2020 10:42 pm

Dumbledore7 wrote:Lewandowski hit 34.2 km/h
How do they measure the speed? Tops (garments) have chips?
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Re: [2020-12-19] Bayer Leverkusen vs Bayern Munich

Postby #12 » Sun Dec 20, 2020 12:42 am

r10 wrote:
Dumbledore7 wrote:Lewandowski hit 34.2 km/h
How do they measure the speed? Tops (garments) have chips?
Do the police need chips to measure you driving too fast?
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Re: [2020-12-19] Bayer Leverkusen vs Bayern Munich

Postby aterford » Sun Dec 20, 2020 4:41 am

I suspect that coming off of a rough performance vs Wolfsburg/Union and then conceding early again perhaps soured our views on the match. And the nature of the goal in the closing seconds probably makes it feel like an undeserved win....but TBH, this was a good performance and a well-deserved win.
I also kind of think the stat that gets thrown up about how we've conceded first for 6 matches in a row or something is one that probably sounds intriguing but ultimately lacks context and really just doesn't mean a ton. Look at today: The marking was poor but still that goal RARELY finds net, it's more a function of an extremely good (or lucky) finish rather than some fundamental failing on our part. 0.05 xG on that shot. Nine times out of 10 that shot goes into the stands and nobody says anything about it. That goal in and of itself - not really anything to try and glean some sort of 'trend' off of. On the whole, Leverkusen finished the match with 0 (zero) big chances, and only two shots on target for the entire match.
I don't know if Leverkusen are one of the 'best' teams in the league but they're certainly one of the most consistent at the moment, and frankly by pretty much every measure we were comprehensively in control of that game. It would have been harsh for us to only come away with a draw, we outplayed them for virtually the entire match. That doesn't mean it was our best performance, and it doesn't make up for lackluster performances in recent weeks, but it's okay to evaluate each match on its own merits - and today's was not a bad one. In isolation, not one that you'd get upset about, overall.

Ultimately, nothing wrong, and we head into Christmas top of the table. I suspect we won't come down from that position again any time soon.
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Re: [2020-12-19] Bayer Leverkusen vs Bayern Munich

Postby MUTU » Sun Dec 20, 2020 8:13 am

Ah dammit 2 weeks until our next match. They're trying to encourage households not to mix for Christmas as they usually would, but at the same time they take away the entertainment. They should have taken the break the following week instead.
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Re: [2020-12-19] Bayer Leverkusen vs Bayern Munich

Postby #12 » Sun Dec 20, 2020 12:30 pm

aterford wrote:I suspect that coming off of a rough performance vs Wolfsburg/Union and then conceding early again perhaps soured our views on the match. And the nature of the goal in the closing seconds probably makes it feel like an undeserved win....but TBH, this was a good performance and a well-deserved win.
I also kind of think the stat that gets thrown up about how we've conceded first for 6 matches in a row or something is one that probably sounds intriguing but ultimately lacks context and really just doesn't mean a ton. Look at today: The marking was poor but still that goal RARELY finds net, it's more a function of an extremely good (or lucky) finish rather than some fundamental failing on our part. 0.05 xG on that shot. Nine times out of 10 that shot goes into the stands and nobody says anything about it. That goal in and of itself - not really anything to try and glean some sort of 'trend' off of. On the whole, Leverkusen finished the match with 0 (zero) big chances, and only two shots on target for the entire match.
I don't know if Leverkusen are one of the 'best' teams in the league but they're certainly one of the most consistent at the moment, and frankly by pretty much every measure we were comprehensively in control of that game. It would have been harsh for us to only come away with a draw, we outplayed them for virtually the entire match. That doesn't mean it was our best performance, and it doesn't make up for lackluster performances in recent weeks, but it's okay to evaluate each match on its own merits - and today's was not a bad one. In isolation, not one that you'd get upset about, overall.

Ultimately, nothing wrong, and we head into Christmas top of the table. I suspect we won't come down from that position again any time soon.
Meh... I still think there IS a trend... I mean the manmarking in that goal was as amateurish as all of our defending lately, and your assessment excludes the SIX games before that where we conceded the first one as well - trailing Leipzig TWICE, even after a lead...

That said we didn’t lose one of the games so in retrospect, I was very emotional and pissed - as I am often - but it’s actually not that bad and definitely shows great morale...

Nonetheless, our goals came from just as - or in the case of the equalizer even more - amateurish mistakes... We had less possession and won less duels... Our passing percentage was poor... So I cannot agree on us outplaying them "the entire match"! We were only happening after the equalizer and I think they kinda deserved a draw, because we were much better in HT2 but wayyy too sloppy and lacking determination in the final third... Even that goal... There’s just no way you don’t pass that to Gnabry...
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Re: [2020-12-19] Bayer Leverkusen vs Bayern Munich

Postby aterford » Sun Dec 20, 2020 6:11 pm

#12 wrote:Meh... I still think there IS a trend... I mean the manmarking in that goal was as amateurish as all of our defending lately, and your assessment excludes the SIX games before that where we conceded the first one as well - trailing Leipzig TWICE, even after a lead...

Nonetheless, our goals came from just as - or in the case of the equalizer even more - amateurish mistakes... We had less possession and won less duels... Our passing percentage was poor... So I cannot agree on us outplaying them "the entire match"! We were only happening after the equalizer and I think they kinda deserved a draw, because we were much better in HT2 but wayyy too sloppy and lacking determination in the final third... Even that goal... There’s just no way you don’t pass that to Gnabry...


Perhaps so, but my point then is that we should look at the cause of said 'trend' rather than just pointing it 'we got scored on first'. Of course you always want to keep a clean sheet but that's not always possible. And conceding the first goal is - like i said - not necessarily indicative of some sort of systematic failings. Maybe you concede first because of some consistent, repeatable issue with your defending; maybe it happens because everyone gets scored on and you're just not very lucky. Or it's probably some mix of both.

Usually where there's smoke there's fire but we shouldn't automatically assume EVERY time we've conceded first it's down to a fundamental issue with our defending. Sometimes frankly it's just coincidence.
Like I said before - Schick's goal had an xG of 0.04 - 96% of the time that doesn't get scored.
Union? We concede first there - Promel's goal? xG 0.02 - 98% of the time we don't go behind there.
vs Wolfsburg, it's Philipp, 0.09.

That's our last three goals conceded first AND our last three goals allowed total in the league - for a combined 0.15 xG from all three.
In fact, Leverkusen, Union, and Wolfsburg all had ZERO "big chances," as defined by xG (Roughly speaking, most xG models define a "big chance" as a shot attempt with an xG of 0.38 or higher, give or take)
That...points more or less to being unlucky. They weren't high-quality chances and not ones you'd really expect to score. If you replayed those three matches, odds are all three of those goals probably don't get scored and instead it's 3 games running where we've scored first and kept a clean sheet in three consecutive BL matches. And of course that's an entirely different narrative, changes the perception of this team entirely. All that to say that....these things are often knife-edge, it's a game of inches (so to speak) and we should look at individual situations rather than making sweeping generalizations based off of statistics that by themselves don't hold a ton of significance.

Truthfully in that regard you have to go back to the matches vs Leipzig, Stuttgart, Bremen, Dortmund to see league matches in which we were conceding bad chances, but curiously (anecdotally speaking, anyways) it feels like our defending was not criticized nearly as much then. Perhaps that's a measure of the quality of opponent? I'm not sure. Leverkusen, for example, are just as quality (at least when it comes to attacking!) as Leipzig or Dortmund, but the reaction was very different.
vs Leipzig when we conceded first, it was Nkunku, 0.47 xG. The second was Kluivert, 0.39. And finally Forsberg, 0.56. And of course we drew that match. vs Stuttgart, it was Coulibaly, 0.37 xG. Bremen, it's Eggestein, 0.42.Dortmund, Reus, 0.52. Those are significantly better chances allowed. Like I said, perhaps it's a function of who we're playing, but if anything in the last 6 matches - the most recent three have seen our defense tighten up considerably compared to the previous three.

So, all that to say, there are still certainly problems with our defense, and perhaps there is something fundamentally 'off' that repeatedly causes us to concede first, but it may also be that we've just been exceedingly unlucky. Giving up three goals in the opening ~15 minutes of the last three matches when all three were very, very low-percentage chances speaks more to bad luck than systematic issues, to me anyways. Of course xG certainly doesn't tell the whole story, but I'd argue it *does* tell more of a story than just pointing to us conceding first, without any context given... :wink:
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Re: [2020-12-19] Bayer Leverkusen vs Bayern Munich

Postby #12 » Sun Dec 20, 2020 8:19 pm

aterford wrote:
#12 wrote:Meh... I still think there IS a trend... I mean the manmarking in that goal was as amateurish as all of our defending lately, and your assessment excludes the SIX games before that where we conceded the first one as well - trailing Leipzig TWICE, even after a lead...

Nonetheless, our goals came from just as - or in the case of the equalizer even more - amateurish mistakes... We had less possession and won less duels... Our passing percentage was poor... So I cannot agree on us outplaying them "the entire match"! We were only happening after the equalizer and I think they kinda deserved a draw, because we were much better in HT2 but wayyy too sloppy and lacking determination in the final third... Even that goal... There’s just no way you don’t pass that to Gnabry...


Perhaps so, but my point then is that we should look at the cause of said 'trend' rather than just pointing it 'we got scored on first'. Of course you always want to keep a clean sheet but that's not always possible. And conceding the first goal is - like i said - not necessarily indicative of some sort of systematic failings. Maybe you concede first because of some consistent, repeatable issue with your defending; maybe it happens because everyone gets scored on and you're just not very lucky. Or it's probably some mix of both.

Usually where there's smoke there's fire but we shouldn't automatically assume EVERY time we've conceded first it's down to a fundamental issue with our defending. Sometimes frankly it's just coincidence.
Like I said before - Schick's goal had an xG of 0.04 - 96% of the time that doesn't get scored.
Union? We concede first there - Promel's goal? xG 0.02 - 98% of the time we don't go behind there.
vs Wolfsburg, it's Philipp, 0.09.

That's our last three goals conceded first AND our last three goals allowed total in the league - for a combined 0.15 xG from all three.
In fact, Leverkusen, Union, and Wolfsburg all had ZERO "big chances," as defined by xG (Roughly speaking, most xG models define a "big chance" as a shot attempt with an xG of 0.38 or higher, give or take)
That...points more or less to being unlucky. They weren't high-quality chances and not ones you'd really expect to score. If you replayed those three matches, odds are all three of those goals probably don't get scored and instead it's 3 games running where we've scored first and kept a clean sheet in three consecutive BL matches. And of course that's an entirely different narrative, changes the perception of this team entirely. All that to say that....these things are often knife-edge, it's a game of inches (so to speak) and we should look at individual situations rather than making sweeping generalizations based off of statistics that by themselves don't hold a ton of significance.

Truthfully in that regard you have to go back to the matches vs Leipzig, Stuttgart, Bremen, Dortmund to see league matches in which we were conceding bad chances, but curiously (anecdotally speaking, anyways) it feels like our defending was not criticized nearly as much then. Perhaps that's a measure of the quality of opponent? I'm not sure. Leverkusen, for example, are just as quality (at least when it comes to attacking!) as Leipzig or Dortmund, but the reaction was very different.
vs Leipzig when we conceded first, it was Nkunku, 0.47 xG. The second was Kluivert, 0.39. And finally Forsberg, 0.56. And of course we drew that match. vs Stuttgart, it was Coulibaly, 0.37 xG. Bremen, it's Eggestein, 0.42.Dortmund, Reus, 0.52. Those are significantly better chances allowed. Like I said, perhaps it's a function of who we're playing, but if anything in the last 6 matches - the most recent three have seen our defense tighten up considerably compared to the previous three.

So, all that to say, there are still certainly problems with our defense, and perhaps there is something fundamentally 'off' that repeatedly causes us to concede first, but it may also be that we've just been exceedingly unlucky. Giving up three goals in the opening ~15 minutes of the last three matches when all three were very, very low-percentage chances speaks more to bad luck than systematic issues, to me anyways. Of course xG certainly doesn't tell the whole story, but I'd argue it *does* tell more of a story than just pointing to us conceding first, without any context given... :wink:
I accept your premise, but not your argument/reasoning... That chance of Union like two minutes before we conceded and after like 25 seconds was a VERY good chance in my book... I find xG to be a nice gimmick, but too flawed... The Nkunku goal is like a 98% goal in my book - there was no goalie... The aforementioned Union chance: I think 95% of goalies in the world have to get that out of the net... Overall, all these teams had far too many clear cut chances... I mean if you do a career highlight reel for Manuel Neuer, you would probably fill >10% of the duration with scenes from this „Hinrunde“ alone...
However, if I‘m being honest, we DID improve yesterday in that we conceded basically only one good chance... It was our attacking that was a little off...

So I feel inclined to adapt your narrative as of now... Let’s see how we restart...
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Re: [2020-12-19] Bayer Leverkusen vs Bayern Munich

Postby MUTU » Sun Dec 20, 2020 8:23 pm

#12 wrote:we DID improve yesterday in that we conceded basically only one good chance

Which one? I saw none. Please don't tell me you think that super difficult volley is a "good chance" for you. Pretty sure that not even 1 in 10 would score that goal.
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Re: [2020-12-19] Bayer Leverkusen vs Bayern Munich

Postby #12 » Sun Dec 20, 2020 11:12 pm

MUTU wrote:
#12 wrote:we DID improve yesterday in that we conceded basically only one good chance

Which one? I saw none. Please don't tell me you think that super difficult volley is a "good chance" for you. Pretty sure that not even 1 in 10 would score that goal.
Yeah it is and yes they would... There’s a reason they’re pros and if you give a pro THIS much time, be sure that MORE than 10% can score it...

But I was actually talking about Diaby...
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Re: [2020-12-19] Bayer Leverkusen vs Bayern Munich

Postby aterford » Mon Dec 21, 2020 2:21 am

#12 wrote:I accept your premise, but not your argument/reasoning... That chance of Union like two minutes before we conceded and after like 25 seconds was a VERY good chance in my book... I find xG to be a nice gimmick, but too flawed... The Nkunku goal is like a 98% goal in my book - there was no goalie... The aforementioned Union chance: I think 95% of goalies in the world have to get that out of the net... Overall, all these teams had far too many clear cut chances... I mean if you do a career highlight reel for Manuel Neuer, you would probably fill >10% of the duration with scenes from this „Hinrunde“ alone...
However, if I‘m being honest, we DID improve yesterday in that we conceded basically only one good chance... It was our attacking that was a little off...

So I feel inclined to adapt your narrative as of now... Let’s see how we restart...


That's fair. Personally I find our attacking to be the bigger issue at the moment as well.

It wasn't that long ago but for much of last season our defense felt like it was often "Bend, but don't break" - and in some ways we are still doing the same. But like I said: it's a game of inches, and right now it feels like some chances are finding the back of the net when they wouldn't have last year. I haven't looked at the numbers too closely but I suspect we're not giving up fundamentally more chances (or higher-quality chances) at the moment, but they happen to be scoring them more. To bring xG back into it (albeit only in a theoretical sense) - say you have a stretch of 10 games in 2019/20. Your team allows an average of 1.5 xG per game, but on average concede just 1.0 *actual* goals per 90. Now say in 2020 you're still allowing 1.5 xG per game, but now you're instead on average conceding 1.5 *actual* goals per game. The first team isn't inherently better (or at least not necessarily so) but it *feels* better as a result of the scoreline.

All that is a roundabout way of saying that I'm not sure our defense is fundamentally *worse* than it was last season, but I do think it is certainly a less lucky one (we have to admit there were a number of matches where our defending got lucky and didn't concede some big chances last season, of course. Sometimes it's better to be lucky than good!). So it may be "bad luck" or it may be more or less a regression to the mean, when compared to last season. I'm not sure. Either way, all that to say: I don't think our defense has made any sort of big shift for the worse compared to last season, but I DO think our attack looks a lot less efficient at the moment. Shaky or not, allowing just ~1.0 xG per match (roughly our BL average) *should* be enough to come away with a win in most games, provided the attack works as it's supposed to....So that is really the bigger concern to me right now anyways. Going behind early and/or first is annoying (and certainly less than preferable) but usually not a terribly huge issue; but if the attack keeps performing so-so, other teams will soon likely punish us for it...
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Re: [2020-12-19] Bayer Leverkusen vs Bayern Munich

Postby #12 » Mon Dec 21, 2020 1:37 pm

aterford wrote:
#12 wrote:I accept your premise, but not your argument/reasoning... That chance of Union like two minutes before we conceded and after like 25 seconds was a VERY good chance in my book... I find xG to be a nice gimmick, but too flawed... The Nkunku goal is like a 98% goal in my book - there was no goalie... The aforementioned Union chance: I think 95% of goalies in the world have to get that out of the net... Overall, all these teams had far too many clear cut chances... I mean if you do a career highlight reel for Manuel Neuer, you would probably fill >10% of the duration with scenes from this „Hinrunde“ alone...
However, if I‘m being honest, we DID improve yesterday in that we conceded basically only one good chance... It was our attacking that was a little off...

So I feel inclined to adapt your narrative as of now... Let’s see how we restart...


That's fair. Personally I find our attacking to be the bigger issue at the moment as well.

It wasn't that long ago but for much of last season our defense felt like it was often "Bend, but don't break" - and in some ways we are still doing the same. But like I said: it's a game of inches, and right now it feels like some chances are finding the back of the net when they wouldn't have last year. I haven't looked at the numbers too closely but I suspect we're not giving up fundamentally more chances (or higher-quality chances) at the moment, but they happen to be scoring them more. To bring xG back into it (albeit only in a theoretical sense) - say you have a stretch of 10 games in 2019/20. Your team allows an average of 1.5 xG per game, but on average concede just 1.0 *actual* goals per 90. Now say in 2020 you're still allowing 1.5 xG per game, but now you're instead on average conceding 1.5 *actual* goals per game. The first team isn't inherently better (or at least not necessarily so) but it *feels* better as a result of the scoreline.

All that is a roundabout way of saying that I'm not sure our defense is fundamentally *worse* than it was last season, but I do think it is certainly a less lucky one (we have to admit there were a number of matches where our defending got lucky and didn't concede some big chances last season, of course. Sometimes it's better to be lucky than good!). So it may be "bad luck" or it may be more or less a regression to the mean, when compared to last season. I'm not sure. Either way, all that to say: I don't think our defense has made any sort of big shift for the worse compared to last season, but I DO think our attack looks a lot less efficient at the moment. Shaky or not, allowing just ~1.0 xG per match (roughly our BL average) *should* be enough to come away with a win in most games, provided the attack works as it's supposed to....So that is really the bigger concern to me right now anyways. Going behind early and/or first is annoying (and certainly less than preferable) but usually not a terribly huge issue; but if the attack keeps performing so-so, other teams will soon likely punish us for it...
Agreed... Also, I think it might be due to our attack "clicking" less... If we are more dangerous up front and pose a bigger threat, it probably keeps the occasional attack away as well for 1.) teams probably are a little less courageous in attack and 2.) us shifting play to the offensive end both keeps them away and helps our defense "relax" and focus...
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