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2019/20 Bundesliga Discussion Thread

Discussions on the German Bundesliga matches.
 

Re: 2019/20 Bundesliga Discussion Thread

Postby #12 » Sun Feb 09, 2020 2:27 am

ramsej84 wrote:BLiga is shit,boring, predictable

https://youtu.be/ZPwTF-WmQqU


Actually that was a fantastic game...
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Re: 2019/20 Bundesliga Discussion Thread

Postby YlonenXabi » Sun Feb 09, 2020 10:54 am

Do you still think that Dortmund and Leipzig are too good for us and that we are out of the title race? :coffee:
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Re: 2019/20 Bundesliga Discussion Thread

Postby MaCk0y » Sun Feb 09, 2020 2:01 pm

Is the Monchengladbach vs Cologne match postponed?
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Re: 2019/20 Bundesliga Discussion Thread

Postby bastos80 » Sun Feb 09, 2020 2:05 pm

MaCk0y wrote:Is the Monchengladbach vs Cologne match postponed?


yes
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Re: 2019/20 Bundesliga Discussion Thread

Postby Ben Gardner » Sun Feb 09, 2020 2:06 pm

Another classic Dortmund performance. Once again they showed everybody that they are not capable of defending and do not qualify for the title race. I do still think they can finish top 4, maybe even second spot if they get back to scoring 4-5 goals per game.
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Re: 2019/20 Bundesliga Discussion Thread

Postby Firefox1234 » Sun Feb 09, 2020 2:19 pm

MaCk0y wrote:Is the Monchengladbach vs Cologne match postponed?

Can't see tweet? Click here!
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Re: 2019/20 Bundesliga Discussion Thread

Postby #12 » Sun Feb 09, 2020 2:48 pm

YlonenXabi wrote:Do you still think that Dortmund and Leipzig are too good for us and that we are out of the title race? :coffee:


I'll tell you tonight...
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Re: 2019/20 Bundesliga Discussion Thread

Postby #12 » Mon Feb 10, 2020 3:29 pm

#12 wrote:
YlonenXabi wrote:Do you still think that Dortmund and Leipzig are too good for us and that we are out of the title race? :coffee:


I'll tell you tonight...


Think our chances got significantly worse btw...
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Re: 2019/20 Bundesliga Discussion Thread

Postby aterford » Mon Feb 10, 2020 4:27 pm

#12 wrote:
#12 wrote:
YlonenXabi wrote:Do you still think that Dortmund and Leipzig are too good for us and that we are out of the title race? :coffee:


I'll tell you tonight...


Think our chances got significantly worse btw...


A draw doesn't help but we're still firmly in the driver's seat. Do you think Leipzig will earn +2 more points than us over the course of the rest of the season? Same for Gladbach, potentially. BVB would need to earn +5 more. This would require Bayern to under-perform their season averages over the next 13 matches while RBL/Gladbach/BVB would need to simultaneously over-perform their season averages in the same remaining span. I don't think that's statistically very probable. What do you think are the odds that Bayern decline over the next 13 matches while RBL/Gladbach/etc improve by a big enough margin to get ahead?

I don't think we're going to run away with the title, but we're presently HEAVY favorites, and rightly so.
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Re: 2019/20 Bundesliga Discussion Thread

Postby #12 » Mon Feb 10, 2020 4:32 pm

aterford wrote:
#12 wrote:
#12 wrote:[quote="YlonenXabi"]Do you still think that Dortmund and Leipzig are too good for us and that we are out of the title race? :coffee:


I'll tell you tonight...


Think our chances got significantly worse btw...


A draw doesn't help but we're still firmly in the driver's seat. Do you think Leipzig will earn +2 more points than us over the course of the rest of the season? Same for Gladbach, potentially. BVB would need to earn +5 more. This would require Bayern to under-perform their season averages over the next 13 matches while RBL/Gladbach/BVB would need to simultaneously over-perform their season averages in the same remaining span. I don't think that's statistically very probable. What do you think are the odds that Bayern decline over the next 13 matches while RBL/Gladbach/etc improve by a big enough margin to get ahead?

I don't think we're going to run away with the title, but we're presently HEAVY favorites, and rightly so.[/quote]

Well... Leipzig struggle against top opponents... They played their potentially most difficult game yesterday and didn’t even lose and are only 2 points behind... We still have to play AT Dortmund and Leverkusen, where we regularly lose, plus Gladbach at home... Their toughest match is at home against Dortmund... I see it very likely they'll get two points more than us... At 4 our odds would be mich better...
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Re: 2019/20 Bundesliga Discussion Thread

Postby #12 » Mon Feb 10, 2020 4:32 pm

Plus our 2nd half was - again - pure garbage...
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Re: 2019/20 Bundesliga Discussion Thread

Postby aterford » Mon Feb 10, 2020 4:48 pm

#12 wrote:Well... Leipzig struggle against top opponents... They played their potentially most difficult game yesterday and didn’t even lose and are only 2 points behind... We still have to play AT Dortmund and Leverkusen, where we regularly lose, plus Gladbach at home... Their toughest match is at home against Dortmund... I see it very likely they'll get two points more than us... At 4 our odds would be mich better...



Eh, i think that's being a bit too optimistic on Leipzig while also being a bit too pessimistic on us.
Leipzig still have to play Schalke away, who TBH are not that bad - Leipzig lost to them 3:1 earlier in the season. They'll still play Freiburg, who also beat them. They'll play Leverkusen and Wolfsburg, who drew them. And then the Dortmund match.
On top of that: we're still earning more points per match than Leipzig, Gladbach, and Dortmund. But perhaps more importantly: Leipzig are generally overperforming at the moment (at best, right where you would expect them) while we're underperforming. Leipzig have scored 53 goals on 50 xG and their average points per match presently sits at 2.0 - which is exactly where their expected points per match projection would place them. Comparatively, we're presently on 2.05 points per match, but that's against a projected 2.21. On the season as whole, 42 points is about where you'd expect Leipzig to be at this point, but we're around ~4pts behind where we "should" be. If anything, we'd more reasonably expect a "regression to the mean" from both teams, wherein we'd actually *improve* and Leipzig would show no change or perhaps decline.
Of course 13 games is not a ton of time for such a regression to occur and 'level out' but the point remains the same: like I said, we probably won't run away with the title, but it's awfully hard to look at the math and conclude anything other than that we're favorites still - and favorites with a relatively healthy degree of confidence, at that. You really have to ignore (actually, not just ignore but actively oppose) the current data we have in order to assume that we will get worse while Leipzig will get better.
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Re: 2019/20 Bundesliga Discussion Thread

Postby #12 » Mon Feb 10, 2020 5:09 pm

Okay I see your point... I'm less mathematical and more emotional though...
And all I see is we should have 6 points more (Leverkusen and Gladbach) and the way we play suggests it will happen again...
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Re: 2019/20 Bundesliga Discussion Thread

Postby aterford » Mon Feb 10, 2020 7:08 pm

The biggest concern for me is squad depth as the season continues.
Just a bit more food for thought, though:
First is that while I mentioned above we are earning slightly more points per match than Leipzig on the season as a whole (2.05 vs 2.00)...but under Flick that number is 2.47 - obviously substantially more.

Second: this site gives the "strength of schedule" for each team's remaining schedule. They have us and Leipzig as having equally difficult remaining schedules, FWIW. https://www.restprogramm.com/restprogra ... undesliga/
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Re: 2019/20 Bundesliga Discussion Thread

Postby aterford » Mon Feb 10, 2020 8:20 pm

I do need to offer a small correction for something I've said above.

Leipzig's points per match in the Bundesliga this season is 2.0, that's accurate.
Bayern's points per match in the Bundesliga this season is 2.05, that's accurate too.
However the 2.47 figure for Bayern under Flick is for all competitions.
Under Flick, Bayern are earning 2.18 points per match in the Bundesliga. That's still a noticeable improvement and presents a bigger 'hill' for Leipzig to climb, so to speak, but not quite as great as 2.47, obviously. Ultimately I think my point remains the same but felt the need to clarify that.
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