FC Bayern Forum

[PunkCapitalist]

Jesus **** christ, what a mess in the second half. Somehow the 3 points are there, what a relief.

Yes. You lost control and almost let them take points.

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[Achilles]

BVB plays very good football and whenever luck is needed is on their favor, they somehow escape from all bad situations unscathed...

[Borusse]

Maybe not all the time but yeah, in most cases we manage to keep the result. But the guys are doing great job on the pitch, lot of fighting, right mentality, it's not like this "luck" just magically happened this season, I think we mostly create our own luck.

[America USA]

No you don’t create your own luck. Luck happens. Liverpool have been getting the rub of luck all season long so far (Salah dive, Everton Pickford blunder, Today’s Speroni mistake, Mahrez missed penalty,etc.) Similarly all the luck has gone Favre’s way so far. That Bremen game comes to mind where Bremen deserved a draw but were very unlucky not to have scored another.


And then there’s Real Madrid’s infinite “luck” in the UCL. Luck is just luck no one makes it nor breaks it, it just happens to shine whenever it effing wants to!

[Borusse]

I disagree.

[Lukas]

"Luck" to me is a one off event like winning the lottery. Yes luck exists in football for one off incidents but you can't win a major title on luck (yes even Madrid).

Dortmund still look worryingly resilient, like title winners. Like their hipster, YNWA droning friends from Merseyside

[America USA]

"Luck" to me is a one off event like winning the lottery. Yes luck exists in football for one off incidents but you can't win a major title on luck (yes even Madrid).

Dortmund still look worryingly resilient, like title winners. Like their hipster, YNWA droning friends from Merseyside

Respectfully disagree.

Real Madrid’s 2018 UCL title and Leicester City’s 2016 PL triumph are the most blatant examples of teams riding their luck all the way to the finish line. Sometimes stars do align in your favor and everything goes your way (just like sometimes when you can’t catch a break from unfortunate stuff happening to you!)

A lot of things went in Leicester’s favor when they did the impossible in 2016.
- Not one of their key players (Mahrez, Kante, Huth, Drinkwater, Fuchs, Vardy & Schmeichel) was sidelined with a lengthy injury at any point in time during that season. Unbelievable luck where you go an entire season with no injuries whatsoever to the core of your team and play the same eleven almost every match day. Destiny was on Leicester’s side it seems.
- Playing the same defensive 442 all the time and still getting results. Not many teams win the league nowadays playing that same formation every week for 38/34 games because you get worked out. Preposterous that no team had any tactical answers to their repeatedly used 442
- Vastly Superior teams like City, United and Chelsea all having poor seasons at the same time. Stars well and truly aligned for Leicester back then.

A lot of things also went in Real Madrid’s favor when they won the record 13th EC last year
- Almost all refereeing decisions in key moments went in Real Madrid’s favor. This is just a fact. All 50-50s were adjudicated in their favor. Please see this video for the many instances that went in Madrid’s favor throughout their 2018 UCL run. Fate (or maybe something more sinister) was well and truly on Real’s side
- Professional level athletes made bizarre errors against Madrid throughout Real’s run last year. Ulreich, Rafinha, Karius, Lewandowski (missing fantastic 1v1 chance with Navas by not even forcing a save), and Alaba (failing to mark an open Benzema in the box). So many crucial errors against you is impossible to explain other than saying the stars were aligning for Real to make history (or the sinister explanation would be match fixing but I think that’s not a legitimate question)
- Salah’s injury. Whether Ramos did it on purpose or not, it is not up for debate that Salah’s exit had a massive impact on the final. Before that injury Liverpool were in ascendency and Real Madrid were hanging on for dear life. But again destiny was not on Liverpool’s side and Madrid got the rub of the green once more.

So yes in my professional opinion “Luck” does not exist solely in “one off incidents” but can actually play a vital role during the entire course of a season. It is not unheard of for individuals to have a period in life where everything they touch turns gold and likewise it it totally credible to believe that the same can happen to a sports team.

Would I complain if luck was on Bayern’s side and we somehow won the Treble this year? Absolutely not. However, I would not shy away from acknowledging that fate smiled upon my team and the stars aligned for history to me made.

[MUTU]

Can't see tweet? Click here!

[aterford]

^^ I've been banging this drum for a while too but nobody seems to want to listen that much. I haven't checked the numbers in a couple of seasons now, but just a couple years ago when you looked at point spread from top to bottom (first to last as you said), point spread between European spots/relegation zone, average points earned per match top vs bottom half, how 'tight' the points margins are (how close a title race, how close for european spots, how close for relegation, etc) and so on, the BL 'performed' better than the EPL by just about every measure, at least as it relates to parity or 'most competitive'.
For years you hear people say "EPL is the best league in the world" and then when one pushes back with the EPL's underwhelming record in Europe up until very recently, defenders will say "Okay, but it is the most competitive and most exciting," which also turns out to be largely unsupported by any objective measure. There are certainly some bad teams in BL, La Liga, etc, but the idea that the EPL has more quality top to bottom or that it's more 'competitive' or whatnot is really hard to support.
You've realistically got about three teams that have any chance at the title, about three more who have any hope of getting into European competition, and after that? Out of 20 teams in the league, 10 of them wouldn't look out of place if they were playing in the Championship.
Even compared with the BL (and I think it's fair to say this is perhaps a "down" year for the league) you've got probably 3 teams with a legit shot at the title (Bayern and Gladbach have probably every bit as much a chance to overtake Dortmund as City and Spurs have to overtake Liverpool, TBH) but then probably what, 6, 7, 8 teams who are still really fighting for a European spot?

[MUTU]

^^ I've been banging this drum for a while too but nobody seems to want to listen that much. I haven't checked the numbers in a couple of seasons now, but just a couple years ago when you looked at point spread from top to bottom (first to last as you said), point spread between European spots/relegation zone, average points earned per match top vs bottom half, how 'tight' the points margins are (how close a title race, how close for european spots, how close for relegation, etc) and so on, the BL 'performed' better than the EPL by just about every measure, at least as it relates to parity or 'most competitive'.
For years you hear people say "EPL is the best league in the world" and then when one pushes back with the EPL's underwhelming record in Europe up until very recently, defenders will say "Okay, but it is the most competitive and most exciting," which also turns out to be largely unsupported by any objective measure. There are certainly some bad teams in BL, La Liga, etc, but the idea that the EPL has more quality top to bottom or that it's more 'competitive' or whatnot is really hard to support.
You've realistically got about three teams that have any chance at the title, about three more who have any hope of getting into European competition, and after that? Out of 20 teams in the league, 10 of them wouldn't look out of place if they were playing in the Championship.
Even compared with the BL (and I think it's fair to say this is perhaps a "down" year for the league) you've got probably 3 teams with a legit shot at the title (Bayern and Gladbach have probably every bit as much a chance to overtake Dortmund as City and Spurs have to overtake Liverpool, TBH) but then probably what, 6, 7, 8 teams who are still really fighting for a European spot?

This movement of 'competitive league' peaked when Leicester won the Premier League. By the same people who snubbed the Bundesliga in 1998 when just-promoted Kaiserslautern won the Bundesliga. Back then it was "Bundesliga? My arse, they're shite, aiight?"

[MUTU]

Also there's another stat I've often come up with. The Bundesliga consistently has a more distinct number of Champions League participants. Take the last x amount of years (where x is just about any number), and the Bundesliga would have had a higher number of distinct CL participants. If the Premier League was more competitive than the Bundesliga, wouldn't it have a higher number of distinct CL participants?

The real answer is people confuse the word 'competitiveness' with 'predictability of title winner'.

[aterford]

The real answer is people confuse the word 'competitiveness' with 'predictability of title winner'.

This is it in a nutshell. Bayern winning the past few years has been an all but foregone conclusion and it's caused many to believe (it seems) that having more variety at the top spot = more competitive. Never mind that since...2000? (I think) the BL has had as many different champions as the EPL...(I believe it's 5 apiece). You might be able to make the argument that the BL is a "one horse race" (of course this year you'd have a bit harder time doing that); so there might be more variety right now in spots 1/2 in the EPL or whatnot, but for the rest of the spots? There's more to 'competitive' than the top two spots, IMO.

[America USA]

Outside the top six, 90% (if not 100%) of the PL teams end the season with a negative goal difference. The bottom 14 teams in the PL only play to remain in the division and everything else (Cup competitions, European qualification, etc.) is secondary. The PL is basically a bunch of average teams fighting it out and therefore it gives the impression of “competitiveness”

The bottom half of the PL is Championship level and there’s a reason why English teams have been terrible in the UCL for a pretty long time.

[MUTU]

Can't see tweet? Click here!

[klinsmann]

Currently watching Bundesliga Weekly show on Fox Sports.... didn't know Alcacer's dad died on the same day he made his professional debut with Valencia.

Edit: it's not Alcacer's first pro debut but it's still sad

https://www.goal.com/en/news/12/spanish ... ching-son-