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2018/19 Bundesliga Discussion Thread

Discussions on the German Bundesliga matches.
 

Re: 2018/19 Bundesliga Discussion Thread

Postby YlonenXabi » Sat Oct 20, 2018 6:25 pm

ramsej84 wrote:
YlonenXabi wrote:If we cannot win CL then I'd rather see Dortmund lifting the trophy than any other team
A true Bayern fan can never say something like that



You are right

A true Bayern fan should say things like

F*CK YOU DORTMUND SCUM !!! HAHAHA LOSERS !! MIA SAN MIA




There are multiple reasons why Dortmund winning CL would be better than any other team besides Bayern


Dortmund winning CL would be good for BL as it would make it more competitive
It would be good for Bayern as well, as it would wake up our board and you could expect some big transfers coming
It would surely help us lure bigger names as BL would no longer be a pub league as it's been in the last couple of seasons
We wouldn't see other big teams getting close to us in terms of CL trophies or even overtaking us


The only reason why it might be not good for Bayern is.... because of the banter? :roll:
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Re: 2018/19 Bundesliga Discussion Thread

Postby tuscanybayern » Sat Oct 20, 2018 6:49 pm

If BVB plays a good and attractive football, why should I not support them against bus-parking teams like Chelsea, Atletico, ManU???

If they manage to fascinate the world with their playing style without the oil/gas/chinese mafia money, just by raising young talents, why should I wish them to lose against P$G, Man Sheiky, Chelsea(again)?

...why should I support unethical teams such as Real and Juve against Dortmund?

...I like their playing style more than boring tiki-taka, why should I support Barcelona?

Imagine this scenario: Real/Chelsea/Psg/ManCity/ManU/Atletico kick Bayern out of the UCL in the semi finals and will face BVB in the final. Would you support Real/Chelsea/Psg/ManCity/ManU/Atletico or BVB?
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Re: 2018/19 Bundesliga Discussion Thread

Postby America USA » Sat Oct 20, 2018 6:56 pm

If not Bayern then Arsenal or Ajax but I’d be cool with Dortmund doing well in the CL ahead of Real Madrid, Barcelona, Juventus, Manchester United, Oil Clubs, Abramovich FC, Milano teams, Tottenham, etc.
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Re: 2018/19 Bundesliga Discussion Thread

Postby #12 » Sat Oct 20, 2018 7:12 pm

I would always root fir the team that eliminated mine as it means you were beat by the winners...
- Rangnick or ten Hag in!
- Bring a DM, a winger (Sané) and Havertz!
- Get a REAL sports director (Rangnick?)!
- Keep Hoeness and Rummenigge far away from the team!
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Re: 2018/19 Bundesliga Discussion Thread

Postby America USA » Sat Oct 20, 2018 7:20 pm

#12 wrote:I would always root fir the team that eliminated mine as it means you were beat by the winners...

Real Madrid fan confirmed :roll:
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Re: 2018/19 Bundesliga Discussion Thread

Postby #12 » Sat Oct 20, 2018 7:24 pm

America USA wrote:
#12 wrote:I would always root fir the team that eliminated mine as it means you were beat by the winners...

Real Madrid fan confirmed :roll:


Well, I don’t even need confirmation for you being unable to read, being selective in your perception or being generally cognitively inactive...
- Rangnick or ten Hag in!
- Bring a DM, a winger (Sané) and Havertz!
- Get a REAL sports director (Rangnick?)!
- Keep Hoeness and Rummenigge far away from the team!
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Re: 2018/19 Bundesliga Discussion Thread

Postby MUTU » Sat Oct 20, 2018 9:28 pm

tuscanybayern wrote:I hope that Dortmund will keep their momentum going both in the Bundesliga and in the Champions League. I wouldn't mind if they managed to win the title this year, they would trigger us to improve as they did between 2010 and 2013

100% agreed.
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Re: 2018/19 Bundesliga Discussion Thread

Postby MUTU » Sat Oct 20, 2018 9:31 pm

YlonenXabi wrote:
ramsej84 wrote:
YlonenXabi wrote:If we cannot win CL then I'd rather see Dortmund lifting the trophy than any other team
A true Bayern fan can never say something like that



You are right

A true Bayern fan should say things like

F*CK YOU DORTMUND SCUM !!! HAHAHA LOSERS !! MIA SAN MIA




There are multiple reasons why Dortmund winning CL would be better than any other team besides Bayern


Dortmund winning CL would be good for BL as it would make it more competitive
It would be good for Bayern as well, as it would wake up our board and you could expect some big transfers coming
It would surely help us lure bigger names as BL would no longer be a pub league as it's been in the last couple of seasons
We wouldn't see other big teams getting close to us in terms of CL trophies or even overtaking us


The only reason why it might be not good for Bayern is.... because of the banter? :roll:

May I thank twice? Especially for the last line. People are shit scared of the banter.
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Re: 2018/19 Bundesliga Discussion Thread

Postby MUTU » Sat Oct 20, 2018 9:33 pm

America USA wrote:
#12 wrote:I would always root fir the team that eliminated mine as it means you were beat by the winners...

Real Madrid fan confirmed :roll:

Last year, his wallpaper was Ronaldo... topless, of course :mrgreen:
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Re: 2018/19 Bundesliga Discussion Thread

Postby #12 » Sat Oct 20, 2018 9:48 pm

MUTU wrote:
America USA wrote:
#12 wrote:I would always root fir the team that eliminated mine as it means you were beat by the winners...

Real Madrid fan confirmed :roll:

Last year, his wallpaper was Ronaldo... topless, of course :mrgreen:


You people are just ridiculously pathetic...

Want me to make my "we have a shot at CL" post now?

There’s half a dozen teams better than RM right now... But guess what? There even more so better than us...

I'll go jack off to Gnabry now... Happy?
- Rangnick or ten Hag in!
- Bring a DM, a winger (Sané) and Havertz!
- Get a REAL sports director (Rangnick?)!
- Keep Hoeness and Rummenigge far away from the team!
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Re: 2018/19 Bundesliga Discussion Thread

Postby Borusse » Sat Oct 20, 2018 10:40 pm

I don't think we are good enough to win the CL even though we're playing well and improving week by week. This team still seems to be too inexperienced, we make errors in defence that will cost us in a big clash.

I could start believing we can reach a semifinal or a final if we play great games against Atletico - that means very solid at the back and strong and creative in attack. If I see a mature performance in a few weeks then I'll let myself start considering we can actually be a threat to the best teams this season. But we will still be underdogs.

But the way we're playing now makes me hope for a more interesting Bundesliga race this season - at least to make Bayern sweat till April, is that too much to ask? :D
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Re: 2018/19 Bundesliga Discussion Thread

Postby aterford » Sat Oct 20, 2018 10:50 pm

I have no beef with BVB. I think the 'rivalry' has always felt a bit "manufactured" to me but I don't think the clubs really dislike each other as folks might want you to believe. Anyways, I'd have no problem if Dortmund really made a big push in the UCL or league. I don't think that hurts us long-term at all.

I think it does bear mentioning that so far BVB is FAR outperforming their xG - their total xG for the season so far is just under 15. They've actually scored 27. On the other hand, our xG is just over 15 and we've scored 15. I'm sure some of you have complaints with the xG model but if history is any indication - scoring at a rate that's double that of your expected goals is pretty much never sustainable. That's not to say Dortmund will totally collapse or anything like that - but we should expect to see a regression toward the mean here; I wouldn't count on them scoring 3, 4+ every week for a whole season.

Of course that doesn't necessarily mean Bayern will catch up or perform better or anything like that. But on paper, things are not nearly so far apart as they seem on the pitch right now, and I think it's more probable than not that things will get much tighter the longer the season goes on.
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Re: 2018/19 Bundesliga Discussion Thread

Postby Borusse » Sun Oct 21, 2018 10:00 am

It's a very interesting topic you've brought up about the xG. The outperforming the xG model is all about Favre. He has outperformed the xG model for the past 5-6 years. When he was at Gladbach and when he was at Nicea. It's no coincidence as well. I've read an article about that even before the season started, it was in polish though. But if you google "Favre expected goals" you will find some articles as well. For example here:

https://saturdaysoncouch.wordpress.com/ ... in-europe/

or here:

https://thefutebolist.wordpress.com/201 ... e-defence/

etc.

It's about Favre's approach to shooting. For example, he wants his team to take a shot on goal when they have a really clean position to shoot. xG model doesn't take into consideration how many players are around you trying to stop you when you take a shot. So when for example xG says the shot had 0.1 success rate, it was actually higher because it was a prepared position.
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Re: 2018/19 Bundesliga Discussion Thread

Postby PunkCapitalist » Sun Oct 21, 2018 11:12 am

aterford wrote:I have no beef with BVB. I think the 'rivalry' has always felt a bit "manufactured" to me but I don't think the clubs really dislike each other as folks might want you to believe. Anyways, I'd have no problem if Dortmund really made a big push in the UCL or league. I don't think that hurts us long-term at all.

I think it does bear mentioning that so far BVB is FAR outperforming their xG - their total xG for the season so far is just under 15. They've actually scored 27. On the other hand, our xG is just over 15 and we've scored 15. I'm sure some of you have complaints with the xG model but if history is any indication - scoring at a rate that's double that of your expected goals is pretty much never sustainable. That's not to say Dortmund will totally collapse or anything like that - but we should expect to see a regression toward the mean here; I wouldn't count on them scoring 3, 4+ every week for a whole season.

Of course that doesn't necessarily mean Bayern will catch up or perform better or anything like that. But on paper, things are not nearly so far apart as they seem on the pitch right now, and I think it's more probable than not that things will get much tighter the longer the season goes on.
Favre has a history of outperforming xG.

https://twitter.com/11tegen11/status/96 ... 17249?s=19

Don't know what it is, xG doesn't seem to capture his system.

Edit: ops, Borusse already said it.

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Re: 2018/19 Bundesliga Discussion Thread

Postby aterford » Sun Oct 21, 2018 7:06 pm

You'll note that in the tweet from 11tegen11 he says pretty much what I noted - that it's more likely than not things will 'level' out, so to speak. Favre is perhaps one of the more high-profile examples but he's not a magician. In general, over time, the model holds. The above articles seem to me to start with the conclusion and work backwards from there, which I'm not sure is proper.
I think if you took the reasoning for why Favre outperforms xG and applied it evenly - you'd find a LOT more teams overperforming xG in a similar way - provided the reasoning holds. And that's what makes me question such things. Favre's tactics are not so unique that no other team is using them (or similar tactics). *If* it's Favre's tactics that lead to his teams outperforming xG, why are we not seeing the same tactics produce the same results all across Europe?
I think it's more likely that given the number of seasons/matches/manager it's probably more likely that Favre has had some luck, some overperforming seasons, and some random variations in performance that account for "beating" the model more than it is that the model is "broken" or that he's cracked the code.

It should also be noted that those trying to figure out how Favre has 'cracked the code' note that his teams tend to allow less than their xGA (expected goals against) as well as outperforming xG. But you'll note that this season their xGA and *actual* goals against are nearly identical. So...I'm just not sure the 'explanations' to Favre outperforming xG really hold up that well over time, and I think that all things considered it *is* more likely things will even out a bit than it is that BVB will continue outpeforming xG by 2:1
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