You are not logged in or registered. Please login or register to use the full functionality of BayernForum.com

FIFA Ballon d'Or 2014 (Neuer vs Ronaldo & Messi)

Discussions about football played outside Europe, or international competitions.
 

Do you think Neuer stands a chance?

Yes
25
52%
No
23
48%
 
Total votes : 48

Re: Can Neuer win the Ballon d'Or ?

Postby RedQueen » Sun Jan 04, 2015 12:47 pm

Of course they aren't there because they are criminally overrated. Give me a break, common sense should tell everyone that a 22 year old goalkeeper can't all of a sudden take a leap and surpass half a dozen goalkeepers who are much more experienced and until half a year ago were considered better than him. Of the five goals Chelsea conceded in the last game, at least two could have been avoided. They weren't blatant mistakes, but he sure could have done better with them. It's all about the EPL marketing machinery.

E:
Which goalkeeper has the best save record in Europe this season? | Goal [source]


Turns out they didn't even make the top 10. No goalkeeper from the PL made the top 10.
"Now, here, you see, it takes all the running you can do, to keep in the same place. If you want to get somewhere else, you must run at least twice as fast as that!" - Red Queen, Alice - Through the Looking-Glass
User avatar
RedQueen
I post all the time
 
Years of membershipYears of membership
 
Posts: 1368
Joined: Thu Dec 04, 2014 7:58 pm
National Flag:
Germany
Has thanked: 99 times
Been thanked: 677 times
Gender: Female

Re: Can Neuer win the Ballon d'Or ?

Postby RedQueen » Sun Jan 04, 2015 1:59 pm

Just did a little test and correlated the saves percentages and the saves per game, this season, of all goalkeepers who played at least 10 games, from Bundesliga, Premier League, La Liga, and Serie A (insufficient data on NBC for France). Turns out it's actually the other way round. The more saves per game, the higher is the save percentage, and it's even highly statistically significant. So busier goalkeepers are more effective on average. The likes of Neuer and Buffon are the outliers.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
"Now, here, you see, it takes all the running you can do, to keep in the same place. If you want to get somewhere else, you must run at least twice as fast as that!" - Red Queen, Alice - Through the Looking-Glass
User avatar
RedQueen
I post all the time
 
Years of membershipYears of membership
 
Posts: 1368
Joined: Thu Dec 04, 2014 7:58 pm
National Flag:
Germany
Has thanked: 99 times
Been thanked: 677 times
Gender: Female

Re: Can Neuer win the Ballon d'Or ?

Postby JANCKER » Sun Jan 04, 2015 2:09 pm

Add the fact that Neuer makes clearances like a defender... how does that fit in the GK stats? Saves?
I think it's harder for a GK to keep concentrated when he has little to do, IMO concentration is key to good goalkeeping.
.........................................Image.........................................
User avatar
JANCKER
I tattooed BayernForum.com on my ass
 
Years of membershipYears of membershipYears of membership
 
Posts: 17386
Joined: Thu Jun 19, 2014 2:03 am
Location: 710 miles SE from Allianz Arena
National Flag:
Basque Country
Has thanked: 9074 times
Been thanked: 8358 times
Gender: Male

Re: Can Neuer win the Ballon d'Or ?

Postby fearlesskiki » Sun Jan 04, 2015 2:15 pm

shouldn't be the percentage of saves are calculated based of the number of saves and the number of shots? :?

But yeah, Neuer's saves are hard to calculate.
ein guter anfang braucht begeisterung, ein gutes ende disziplin
User avatar
fearlesskiki
Yeah, now I'm talking!
 
Years of membershipYears of membership
 
Posts: 103
Joined: Sat Jan 03, 2015 3:08 pm
National Flag:
Malaysia
Has thanked: 24 times
Been thanked: 25 times
Gender: Female

Re: Can Neuer win the Ballon d'Or ?

Postby RedQueen » Sun Jan 04, 2015 2:32 pm

fearlesskiki wrote:shouldn't be the percentage of saves are calculated based of the number of saves and the number of shots? :?

The first variable is saves per game, which is the number of saves divided by the number of games played (horizontal axis). The second variable is the save percentage, which is the number of saves by the goalkeeper divided by the number of shots on target (vertical axis).
I correlated the two, because it's always argued that a goalkeeper who has little to do (few saves per game) will inevitably have a better save percentage (saves / shots faced). Fitted values should have a negative slope then, but it's positive.
"Now, here, you see, it takes all the running you can do, to keep in the same place. If you want to get somewhere else, you must run at least twice as fast as that!" - Red Queen, Alice - Through the Looking-Glass
User avatar
RedQueen
I post all the time
 
Years of membershipYears of membership
 
Posts: 1368
Joined: Thu Dec 04, 2014 7:58 pm
National Flag:
Germany
Has thanked: 99 times
Been thanked: 677 times
Gender: Female

Re: Can Neuer win the Ballon d'Or ?

Postby JANCKER » Sun Jan 04, 2015 2:35 pm

Robben: Neuer deserves the Ballon d'Or [source]
.........................................Image.........................................
User avatar
JANCKER
I tattooed BayernForum.com on my ass
 
Years of membershipYears of membershipYears of membership
 
Posts: 17386
Joined: Thu Jun 19, 2014 2:03 am
Location: 710 miles SE from Allianz Arena
National Flag:
Basque Country
Has thanked: 9074 times
Been thanked: 8358 times
Gender: Male

Re: Can Neuer win the Ballon d'Or ?

Postby MUTU » Sun Jan 04, 2015 7:35 pm

FCBayernMunchen wrote:Image

Some have already mentioned why it's easier for Neuer to have a good percentage. But what is to be noted is that NONE of the goalkeepers recently said to be better than Neuer are there. :lol:

You know what this means?

It means for every 10,000 shots against Neuer, he lets in 1,081.
For every 10,000 shots against De Sanctis, the 2nd best goalkeeper as far as these stats go, he lets in 1,702 goals.
For every 10,000 shots against Buffon, the only other world-famous goalkeeper in the list, he lets in 1,935 goals.

This means that if they were to take the equal amount of shots against every goalkeeper in Europe, De Sanctis would concede 57.45% more goals than Neuer, and Buffon would concede 79% more goals than Neuer.

A goalkeeper with a save ratio of 78.38% would mean that if him and Neuer have the same amount of shots taken against them, this goalkeeper would concede DOUBLE the amount of goals that Neuer would. Now, the full list of goal.com has Drobny in 10th place with 78.67%. Therefore, in all probability, De Gea concedes over double the amount of goals that Neuer does from an equal amount of shots.
30GB free cloud storage. Click here for the referral.
User avatar
MUTU
Site Admin & EURO 2016 Prediction Game Winner
Site Admin & EURO 2016 Prediction Game Winner
 
Years of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membership
 
Posts: 30559
Joined: Mon Aug 14, 2006 11:00 pm
Location: L-Imqabba, Malta
National Flag:
Malta
Has thanked: 5303 times
Been thanked: 7932 times
Gender: Male
BayernForum.com fan club: Active member
BayernForum.com donator: Yes

Re: Can Neuer win the Ballon d'Or ?

Postby RedQueen » Sun Jan 04, 2015 8:17 pm

According to the scores at NBC, De Gea is at 74.4 percent and Courtois at 66.7 percent. Oh, and Loris Karius, for that matter, is at 76.3 percent (all referring to this season). To continue MUTU's example, that means per 10,000 shots, 2,560 goals conceded by De Gea, and 3,330 by Courtois, compared to 1,081 by Neuer. More than thrice the amount of goals conceded by Courtois, and almost 2.5 times the amount by De Gea. Now Chelsea's defense shouldn't be that much worse than Bayern's, and the shot distribution shouldn't be so much more unfavourable for him.

What's best of all that, in the dataset I obtained from the NBC scores site it turns out that Neuer, who allegedly almost never faces a shot, actually faces more shots per game than Foster, Howard and Courtois. So much for that.
Last edited by RedQueen on Sun Jan 04, 2015 11:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.
"Now, here, you see, it takes all the running you can do, to keep in the same place. If you want to get somewhere else, you must run at least twice as fast as that!" - Red Queen, Alice - Through the Looking-Glass
User avatar
RedQueen
I post all the time
 
Years of membershipYears of membership
 
Posts: 1368
Joined: Thu Dec 04, 2014 7:58 pm
National Flag:
Germany
Has thanked: 99 times
Been thanked: 677 times
Gender: Female

Re: Can Neuer win the Ballon d'Or ?

Postby quaazi » Sun Jan 04, 2015 8:40 pm

now we're stretching statistics real bad, mutu :lol:
The ideal team

--------Müller with gloves--------
-Müller--Müller--Müller--Müller--
-------Müller---------Müller-------
----Müller----Müller----Müller----
---------------Müller---------------
User avatar
quaazi
I tattooed BayernForum.com on my ass
 
Years of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membership
 
Posts: 10079
Joined: Fri Feb 04, 2011 12:13 pm
National Flag:
Estonia
Has thanked: 129 times
Been thanked: 2011 times
Gender: Male

Re: Can Neuer win the Ballon d'Or ?

Postby Slava raf » Sun Jan 04, 2015 8:53 pm

Do anyone have a new information about votes in Ballon dor?
Slava raf
Getting the hang of it
 
Years of membershipYears of membership
 
Posts: 32
Joined: Mon Dec 29, 2014 8:02 am
Has thanked: 0 time
Been thanked: 11 times
Gender: Male

Re: Can Neuer win the Ballon d'Or ?

Postby FCBayernMunchen » Sun Jan 04, 2015 9:08 pm

quaazi wrote:now we're stretching statistics real bad, mutu :lol:

MUTU suffers from quantophrenia. :wink:
Super Bayern! Super Bayern! Hey! Hey!
User avatar
FCBayernMunchen
Moderator
 
Years of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membership
 
Posts: 30532
Joined: Tue Aug 05, 2008 12:54 pm
Location: Malta
National Flag:
Malta
Has thanked: 8524 times
Been thanked: 7150 times
Gender: Male
BayernForum.com fan club: Active member
BayernForum.com donator: Yes

Re: Can Neuer win the Ballon d'Or ?

Postby MUTU » Mon Jan 05, 2015 7:16 am

quaazi wrote:now we're stretching statistics real bad, mutu :lol:

Some ex colleagues used to tell me I should be a politician when I argued football with them
30GB free cloud storage. Click here for the referral.
User avatar
MUTU
Site Admin & EURO 2016 Prediction Game Winner
Site Admin & EURO 2016 Prediction Game Winner
 
Years of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membership
 
Posts: 30559
Joined: Mon Aug 14, 2006 11:00 pm
Location: L-Imqabba, Malta
National Flag:
Malta
Has thanked: 5303 times
Been thanked: 7932 times
Gender: Male
BayernForum.com fan club: Active member
BayernForum.com donator: Yes

Re: Can Neuer win the Ballon d'Or ?

Postby Slava raf » Mon Jan 05, 2015 11:30 am

FIFA.COM
Shevchenko: Neuer fantastic in every way

The assumption could be that one of football's purest forwards would likely tip Cristiano Ronaldo or Lionel Messi to be crowned FIFA Ballon d'Or 2014 champion. However, Die Mannschaft's 'sweeper keeper' Manuel Neuer has caught Shevchenko's attention. Ukraine's most decorated striker sat down with FIFA.com to relive his 2004 Ballon d'Or-winning year and give his thoughts on the qualities of this year's nominees, including the three finalists for the 2014 FIFA World Coach of the Year for Men's Football.
You recently said that Manuel Neuer was favourite to win the Ballon d’Or. You’ve obviously come up against some fantastic goalkeepers in your time as a great striker, what is special about him?
I had been watching the World Cup, and first of all, he’s from the winning team. He was fantastic. He wasn’t only playing like a traditional goalkeeper, but he was also the last man in defence. He was participating in the possession of the ball, helping his defenders a lot. He was not only a fantastic goalkeeper, but he was fantastic in everything.
Slava raf
Getting the hang of it
 
Years of membershipYears of membership
 
Posts: 32
Joined: Mon Dec 29, 2014 8:02 am
Has thanked: 0 time
Been thanked: 11 times
Gender: Male

Re: Can Neuer win the Ballon d'Or ?

Postby RedQueen » Mon Jan 05, 2015 8:27 pm

So Diego Maradona thinks Neuer should win the Ballon D'Or.

Maradona backs Neuer for Ballon D'Or | AFP [source]


Argentinians will be so happy to hear that. :D

Can't really imagine Klinsmann or Völler coming forward and telling the media Messi should win. Although that wouldn't be as bad, at least they weren 't managers while Neuer played.
"Now, here, you see, it takes all the running you can do, to keep in the same place. If you want to get somewhere else, you must run at least twice as fast as that!" - Red Queen, Alice - Through the Looking-Glass
User avatar
RedQueen
I post all the time
 
Years of membershipYears of membership
 
Posts: 1368
Joined: Thu Dec 04, 2014 7:58 pm
National Flag:
Germany
Has thanked: 99 times
Been thanked: 677 times
Gender: Female

Re: Can Neuer win the Ballon d'Or ?

Postby runaway » Tue Jan 06, 2015 1:44 am

Me trying a hand at creating a fancy infographic like in whoscored. :wink:
Image
“If players weren’t human, I’d never lose.” ~El Loco
User avatar
runaway
I'm a post king!
 
Years of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membership
 
Posts: 3850
Joined: Tue Jun 04, 2013 1:21 am
National Flag:
Philippines
Has thanked: 402 times
Been thanked: 1162 times

PreviousNext

Return to Football Around the World

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests