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Transfer Wish list...

Rumours and news about the transfer market. Who are FC Bayern attempting to sign? Who's going to leave? Find it all here.
 

Re: Transfer Wish list...

Postby Manchu » Tue Sep 12, 2017 3:53 am

Alduin wrote:We should sign two of this list: Draxler, Sané, Brandt or Lemar. Also, Timo Werner in 2019 and Goretzka in 2018.

Estimated costs:
Draxler ~50 million(assuming PSG has to dump him for FFP reasons)
Sané ~55 million(if Man City sign Alexis Sanchez and have too many attackers), ~75 million otherwise
Brandt ~9.5 million
Lemar ~100 million
Goretzka~ 0 million
Timo Werner ~95 million

-estimated net transfer budget=~100 million(if Bayern sells players, this might increase to ~150 million).
If we postulate that all of the above players are equally talented(which is not true by any means), two of them(Brandt and Goretzka) stick out as good business. Signing them would still leave 90 million to spend on another winger.

Of course, Brandt is arguably the most talented of the lot, but that doesn't change the story.
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Re: Transfer Wish list...

Postby endrity » Tue Sep 12, 2017 12:54 pm

Apparently Draxler was available for a bit less, around 40. Werner might be less if he doesn't sign a new contract either.
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Re: Transfer Wish list...

Postby seedorf81 » Wed Sep 13, 2017 12:44 am

Would love to see Sanchez, must be a deal to be done as his contract is coming to an end
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Re: Transfer Wish list...

Postby Alduin » Wed Sep 13, 2017 1:52 am

Manchu wrote:
Alduin wrote:We should sign two of this list: Draxler, Sané, Brandt or Lemar. Also, Timo Werner in 2019 and Goretzka in 2018.

Estimated costs:
Draxler ~50 million(assuming PSG has to dump him for FFP reasons)
Sané ~55 million(if Man City sign Alexis Sanchez and have too many attackers), ~75 million otherwise
Brandt ~9.5 million
Lemar ~100 million
Goretzka~ 0 million
Timo Werner ~95 million

-estimated net transfer budget=~100 million(if Bayern sells players, this might increase to ~150 million).
If we postulate that all of the above players are equally talented(which is not true by any means), two of them(Brandt and Goretzka) stick out as good business. Signing them would still leave 90 million to spend on another winger.

Of course, Brandt is arguably the most talented of the lot, but that doesn't change the story.


I don't consider the four players as equally talented because they are not, but they are realistic targets within our current policies.

After today game is clear that we need replacements at the end of the season in the attacking department. If Ribéry leaves at the end of the season and Lewandowski becomes a liability due to his character, we will have enough spots for a revamp in attack and even go for Werner in 2018.
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Re: Transfer Wish list...

Postby bmguy » Wed Sep 13, 2017 5:17 pm

Manchu wrote:
Alduin wrote:We should sign two of this list: Draxler, Sané, Brandt or Lemar. Also, Timo Werner in 2019 and Goretzka in 2018.

Estimated costs:

Timo Werner ~95 million

where did you get all these numbers from ? Timo Werner has no release clause in his contract, but still I dont' think RB values him that much of the price.

Lemar and Werner are what we need. Draxler, sane and brandt are not good enough, I feel that they've reached their limit, they're very inconsistent.
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Re: Transfer Wish list...

Postby FCB12Forever » Wed Sep 13, 2017 5:33 pm

bmguy wrote:Draxler, sane and brandt are not good enough, I feel that they've reached their limit, they're very inconsistent.


It is very interesting how different us fans and professional view things. Bayern have been after Brandt for 5 years. They started when Brandt was still in the youth camp of Wolfsburg. Reschke then brought him to Leverkusen, while we still kept our eyes on Brandt. (You can search for the news and you will see almost each year we inquire about Brandt's availability). When we hired Reschke from Leverkusen, he was supposed to bring Brandt to us, but Brandt asked for more play time at Leverkusen. Now Reschke is gone but we are still keeping an eye on him and reportedly we will trigger his release cluase next summer (12m) to get him. Oh Bayern is just persistent.

Goalimpact, a football data analysis website, also hold the point that Brandt is one of the biggest talent of all time in football, and his potential is close to Ribery.

I think the reason why Brandt is playing badly (seemingly, but he created Leverkusen's almost all goals this season so far) is because Leverkusen is a dysfunctional team, just like Timo Werner at Stuttgart.
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Re: Transfer Wish list...

Postby ramsej84 » Wed Sep 13, 2017 8:16 pm

Pulisic
Goretzka


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Re: Transfer Wish list...

Postby bmguy » Tue Sep 19, 2017 7:36 am

FCB12Forever wrote:
bmguy wrote:Draxler, sane and brandt are not good enough, I feel that they've reached their limit, they're very inconsistent.


It is very interesting how different us fans and professional view things. Bayern have been after Brandt for 5 years. They started when Brandt was still in the youth camp of Wolfsburg. Reschke then brought him to Leverkusen, while we still kept our eyes on Brandt. (You can search for the news and you will see almost each year we inquire about Brandt's availability). When we hired Reschke from Leverkusen, he was supposed to bring Brandt to us, but Brandt asked for more play time at Leverkusen. Now Reschke is gone but we are still keeping an eye on him and reportedly we will trigger his release cluase next summer (12m) to get him. Oh Bayern is just persistent.

Goalimpact, a football data analysis website, also hold the point that Brandt is one of the biggest talent of all time in football, and his potential is close to Ribery.

I think the reason why Brandt is playing badly (seemingly, but he created Leverkusen's almost all goals this season so far) is because Leverkusen is a dysfunctional team, just like Timo Werner at Stuttgart.


thanks for the info, but it still proves that Brandt is not ready for big club like Bayern yet. They chose to buy Gnabry and ignored Brandt, we need a winger that can score+assist at least 15 /season. Brandt history of pro football level shows that he only has 20 goals and 16 assists in entire 5 years from 2013-2017, that's very low for an attacking player

https://www.whoscored.com/Players/14155 ... ian-Brandt

Give him another 2 years, he might become a big player, meanwhile Bayern need to look else where for an instant replacement for Robbery.
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Re: Transfer Wish list...

Postby Isabella » Wed Sep 20, 2017 6:55 am

bmguy wrote:
FCB12Forever wrote:
bmguy wrote:Draxler, sane and brandt are not good enough, I feel that they've reached their limit, they're very inconsistent.


It is very interesting how different us fans and professional view things. Bayern have been after Brandt for 5 years. They started when Brandt was still in the youth camp of Wolfsburg. Reschke then brought him to Leverkusen, while we still kept our eyes on Brandt. (You can search for the news and you will see almost each year we inquire about Brandt's availability). When we hired Reschke from Leverkusen, he was supposed to bring Brandt to us, but Brandt asked for more play time at Leverkusen. Now Reschke is gone but we are still keeping an eye on him and reportedly we will trigger his release cluase next summer (12m) to get him. Oh Bayern is just persistent.

Goalimpact, a football data analysis website, also hold the point that Brandt is one of the biggest talent of all time in football, and his potential is close to Ribery.

I think the reason why Brandt is playing badly (seemingly, but he created Leverkusen's almost all goals this season so far) is because Leverkusen is a dysfunctional team, just like Timo Werner at Stuttgart.


thanks for the info, but it still proves that Brandt is not ready for big club like Bayern yet. They chose to buy Gnabry and ignored Brandt, we need a winger that can score+assist at least 15 /season. Brandt history of pro football level shows that he only has 20 goals and 16 assists in entire 5 years from 2013-2017, that's very low for an attacking player

Give him another 2 years, he might become a big player, meanwhile Bayern need to look else where for an instant replacement for Robbery.

You know who Bayern for buying Brandt this summer need to reach an agreement with Leverkusen and their sporting director, Voeller, is against selling players to Bayern? Bayern need to wait next summer for buying Brandt with the release clause if they want him without overpaying the player
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Re: Transfer Wish list...

Postby MUTU » Wed Sep 20, 2017 8:46 am

Tom Starke :lol:
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Re: Transfer Wish list...

Postby iKIDSTER » Fri Sep 22, 2017 9:50 pm

Alessane Plea (Nice), one of the best in Ligue 1. I have no idea why no one take a look at him. The guy can play FW, FWR, good at everyone of these positions.
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Re: Transfer Wish list...

Postby Manchu » Tue Sep 26, 2017 7:22 am

bmguy wrote:thanks for the info, but it still proves that Brandt is not ready for big club like Bayern yet. They chose to buy Gnabry and ignored Brandt, we need a winger that can score+assist at least 15 /season. Brandt history of pro football level shows that he only has 20 goals and 16 assists in entire 5 years from 2013-2017, that's very low for an attacking player

https://www.whoscored.com/Players/14155 ... ian-Brandt

Give him another 2 years, he might become a big player, meanwhile Bayern need to look else where for an instant replacement for Robbery.

Have you ever seen him actually play? There is a lot more to a player's attacking game than raw goals and assists. Also, one of the reason that number is low(other than you using whoscored rather than the better tranfersmarkt) is that he didn't play very much for two of the four seasons because he was extremely young(he started play in the Bundesliga at 17).
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Re: Transfer Wish list...

Postby FCB12Forever » Tue Sep 26, 2017 7:51 pm

Manchu wrote:Have you ever seen him actually play?


Actually I did watch him play but I don't see anything impressive in his play. Especially last season he was simply horrible. But just as I said professionals view things in such a different way than us fans.
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Re: Transfer Wish list...

Postby Manchu » Thu Sep 28, 2017 7:18 am

FCB12Forever wrote:
Manchu wrote:Have you ever seen him actually play?


Actually I did watch him play but I don't see anything impressive in his play. Especially last season he was simply horrible. But just as I said professionals view things in such a different way than us fans.

Interesting. I'm not a professional(although I like looking at things from a tactical prospective), but I have only seen him play a few times and have been more impressed each time. The only bad game I saw him play was when Low played as right-wingback for some reason against the Czech Republic, and he was able to glide through our defense like it wasn't there last time he played us in the Bundesliga. Moreover, I do find it intriguing that once in a while I read match reports that hardly ever go into real detail that describe Brandt as playing incredibly well even though he didn't score or that I've heard at least one person compare him to Iniesta, which seems to be a rather odd analogy to make for an attacking player.

However, despite the fact that he is rather unusual as a player, I think I have a compelling case to explain why he is good enough to play for Bayern. Let us start with a complication of all his actions on the ball from a Bundesliga game last season(this doesn't include off the ball movement, so it isn't perfect, but most players who make good decisions with the ball at their feet tend to make good decisions with the ball not on their feet):

He has something like ~40 on the ball actions, which lead to good 11 chances, which, despite some rather poor finishing from Leverkusen, lead directly to two goals. Moreover, during the course of this he demonstrates good dribbling ability, strong press resistance, ability and willingness to use both feet, intelligent decision making, and very good ball distribution(I have very limited evidence suggesting that he rakes up an unusual number of pre-assists--the pass before the assist).

Additionally, it's not like this is the only good game he's ever had in his life. He played similarly well against RBL, and whenever I see him play he's generally doing those good things:

(he more or less does the same to any team he faces, including Atletico Madrid.)

Finally, an appropriate way to think about football in general and offensive play in specific may be as a series of tactical problems as players attempt to optimize the probability of scoring goals. Being able to choose the right solutions is very important to being a good player. Just to illustrate this, here's footage of Goretzkascrewing up a 4 vs. 3 opportunity(for the record I love Goretzka and want him on our team and Tolisso managed to screw up much worse in a similar fashion within the last week, but this was a good example).

In that video, I spotted 2 other decisions that he could have made other than trying to dribble that would have definitely increased the probability of his team scoring and one which might have increased it. However, he tried the wrong tactical solution(dribbling) and his team gave up a promising opportunity as a result. Thus, you can see how choosing the right tactical solution is very important.

What makes Brandt unusual is that he almost never chooses the wrong tactical solution and sometimes comes up with utterly unexpected and brilliant tactical solutions.
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Re: Transfer Wish list...

Postby FCB12Forever » Thu Sep 28, 2017 7:30 am

Manchu wrote:What makes Brandt unusual is that he almost never chooses the wrong tactical solution and sometimes comes up with utterly unexpected and brilliant tactical solutions.


Thanks for all the analysis, really appreciate your work. I think this is what we called "football IQ". I totally agree he has a good football IQ. But he doesn't have the physical prowess and speed to keep up with his brain . (Coman, on the other hand, might be the perfect opposite, perfect speed but NO football IQ at all)

There has been a saying that the reason for Netherland's decline in Youth development is that they weigh "football IQ" more than any other aspects, while France simply picked the frigging fastest, strongest guys as their prospects. France 4 - 0 Netherlands is the outcome so far. Some say modern football has increasingly become a race of muscle + speed and "football IQ" will become more and more irrelevant. If that's the case, future will be dark for the likes of Brandt and German / Netherlands football because these 2 countries are the biggest fans of "football IQ".

However, he tried the wrong tactical solution(dribbling) and his team gave up a promising opportunity as a result.


If he had 1.2x the physical conditions, say he was replaced by Neymar at the very moment he might have scored as well. It also means he is limited by phyiscial barriers of his own body so he has to take the "smart" way. while some players just use Brute-force approach. It's hard to say which is better, hope they have a clear conclusion in the Koln sports University.
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