You are not logged in or registered. Please login or register to use the full functionality of BayernForum.com

Robert Lewandowski

Rumours and news about the transfer market. Who are FC Bayern attempting to sign? Who's going to leave? Find it all here.
 

Re: Robert Lewandowski

Postby aterford » Mon Mar 05, 2018 4:15 am

Manchu wrote:
MUTU wrote:Just curious, what is the world transfer record for a player in his 30s?

I believe it is Bonucci to AC Milan for 42 million euros


Lewy will be 29 when he transfers.
Off the top of my head, 29-year old Zidane transferred to Real Madrid for €75m - in 2001, which is equal to approx. €100m today...and that was before the crazy inflation that has recently hit the transfer market.
29-y.o. Rui Costa cost €49.7m in 2001 or €65m today.
User avatar
aterford
I'm a post king!
 
Years of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membership
 
Posts: 2645
Joined: Mon Jul 08, 2013 8:40 am
Has thanked: 2213 times
Been thanked: 1416 times
Gender: Male

Re: Robert Lewandowski

Postby MUTU » Mon Mar 05, 2018 7:00 am

aterford wrote:
Manchu wrote:
MUTU wrote:Just curious, what is the world transfer record for a player in his 30s?

I believe it is Bonucci to AC Milan for 42 million euros


Lewy will be 29 when he transfers.
Off the top of my head, 29-year old Zidane transferred to Real Madrid for €75m - in 2001, which is equal to approx. €100m today...and that was before the crazy inflation that has recently hit the transfer market.
29-y.o. Rui Costa cost €49.7m in 2001 or €65m today.
When the transfer window closes he would be 30. In all likelihood, given that this is a World Cup year, the first league match of Real Madrid would be scheduled after Lewandowski's thirtieth birthday, so let's not say that they'd be getting a 29 year old because for all intents and purposes he'd be 30.
30GB free cloud storage. Click here for the referral.
User avatar
MUTU
Site Admin & EURO 2016 Prediction Game Winner
Site Admin & EURO 2016 Prediction Game Winner
 
Years of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membership
 
Posts: 35486
Joined: Mon Aug 14, 2006 11:00 pm
Location: L-Imqabba, Malta
National Flag:
Malta
Has thanked: 6376 times
Been thanked: 9264 times
Gender: Male
BayernForum.com fan club: Active member
BayernForum.com donator: Yes

Re: Robert Lewandowski

Postby tflags » Mon Mar 05, 2018 10:41 am



EUR100 million? Dude, that kind of offer was so 2009.
Kimmich
Kimmich - Thiago - Kimmich
Kimmich -- Kimmich
Kimmich -- Hummels -- Boa --Kimmich
Kimmich with Gloves
User avatar
tflags
Moderator
 
Years of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membership
 
Posts: 9673
Joined: Fri Feb 18, 2011 8:41 pm
Location: Around the world... in 80 days.
National Flag:
Ecuador
Has thanked: 970 times
Been thanked: 3012 times
Gender: Male
BayernForum.com fan club: Active member
BayernForum.com donator: Yes

Re: Robert Lewandowski

Postby MUTU » Mon Mar 05, 2018 10:47 am

tflags wrote:


EUR100 million? Dude, that kind of offer was so 2009.

Haha that epic interview with Hoeness doesn't quite hold up now, does it?

"If I hear that there was an offer for €125m for Kaka, then Ribéry has a market value of at least €100m," Hoeness told the Bild newspaper.


Kaka, only a year old than Ribery, has seen his value fall ages ago. If Kaka was worth €125m in 2009, then Ribery was worth at least €200m 8)
30GB free cloud storage. Click here for the referral.
User avatar
MUTU
Site Admin & EURO 2016 Prediction Game Winner
Site Admin & EURO 2016 Prediction Game Winner
 
Years of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membership
 
Posts: 35486
Joined: Mon Aug 14, 2006 11:00 pm
Location: L-Imqabba, Malta
National Flag:
Malta
Has thanked: 6376 times
Been thanked: 9264 times
Gender: Male
BayernForum.com fan club: Active member
BayernForum.com donator: Yes

Re: Robert Lewandowski

Postby YlonenXabi » Mon Mar 05, 2018 11:19 am




That's what logic says


Hopefully there won't be any surprises in summer :)
I TRUST IN ARJEN ROBBEN
User avatar
YlonenXabi
I live on BayernForum.com
 
Years of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membership
 
Posts: 9765
Joined: Sat Jun 06, 2009 1:53 am
Location: Sydney
National Flag:
Spain
Has thanked: 2191 times
Been thanked: 2276 times
Gender: Male
BayernForum.com fan club: Active member

Re: Robert Lewandowski

Postby aterford » Mon Mar 05, 2018 4:23 pm

MUTU wrote:
aterford wrote:
Lewy will be 29 when he transfers.
Off the top of my head, 29-year old Zidane transferred to Real Madrid for €75m - in 2001, which is equal to approx. €100m today...and that was before the crazy inflation that has recently hit the transfer market.
29-y.o. Rui Costa cost €49.7m in 2001 or €65m today.
When the transfer window closes he would be 30. In all likelihood, given that this is a World Cup year, the first league match of Real Madrid would be scheduled after Lewandowski's thirtieth birthday, so let's not say that they'd be getting a 29 year old because for all intents and purposes he'd be 30.


I think that's being a bit pedantic and IMO it's quite arbitrary to just decide to draw the line at 30. I'm not so sure that a difference of ~10 months is the difference between €100m and "not much more than €40m"). In whatever case there are plenty of 28, 29 year olds who have sold for FAR more than €40-55m and all this happened BEFORE the vast inflation we've seen hit the transfer market lately, both from EPL cash and Neymar transfer etc.
I would challenge you to find how many analysts, pundits, managers, team staff, sportswriters, etc who honestly believe Lewandowski would sell for €40-55m and how many believe he would sell for more than €55m. I would wager that the result's going to be heavily skewed in the latter direction.
User avatar
aterford
I'm a post king!
 
Years of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membership
 
Posts: 2645
Joined: Mon Jul 08, 2013 8:40 am
Has thanked: 2213 times
Been thanked: 1416 times
Gender: Male

Re: Robert Lewandowski

Postby MUTU » Mon Mar 05, 2018 5:39 pm

aterford wrote:
MUTU wrote:
aterford wrote:
Lewy will be 29 when he transfers.
Off the top of my head, 29-year old Zidane transferred to Real Madrid for €75m - in 2001, which is equal to approx. €100m today...and that was before the crazy inflation that has recently hit the transfer market.
29-y.o. Rui Costa cost €49.7m in 2001 or €65m today.
When the transfer window closes he would be 30. In all likelihood, given that this is a World Cup year, the first league match of Real Madrid would be scheduled after Lewandowski's thirtieth birthday, so let's not say that they'd be getting a 29 year old because for all intents and purposes he'd be 30.


I think that's being a bit pedantic and IMO it's quite arbitrary to just decide to draw the line at 30. I'm not so sure that a difference of ~10 months is the difference between €100m and "not much more than €40m"). In whatever case there are plenty of 28, 29 year olds who have sold for FAR more than €40-55m and all this happened BEFORE the vast inflation we've seen hit the transfer market lately, both from EPL cash and Neymar transfer etc.
I would challenge you to find how many analysts, pundits, managers, team staff, sportswriters, etc who honestly believe Lewandowski would sell for €40-55m and how many believe he would sell for more than €55m. I would wager that the result's going to be heavily skewed in the latter direction.

It might seem a bit pedantic, but it really isn't. That 1 year makes a lot of difference. Imagine you were to draw a general graph of strikers' performance by age. 29 would probably be close to the peak. At 33 he may already be retired, and in any case at the age of 32 strikers would generally have fallen well below their peak. Before I said that if Lewandowski would be bought in summer and retires at 33, if someone buys him for €120m it would cost the club €60m a season. If he was 29 instead of 30, that would mean €50m a season and get a peak year in. €60m is a 20% increase over €50m. And you're adding a peak year not a year where the striker would be on his last legs. So yes, it does make a lot of a difference. If we sold Lewandowski last summer, I'd have expected €100m. Next summer, I'd expect €40m to €55m.
30GB free cloud storage. Click here for the referral.
User avatar
MUTU
Site Admin & EURO 2016 Prediction Game Winner
Site Admin & EURO 2016 Prediction Game Winner
 
Years of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membership
 
Posts: 35486
Joined: Mon Aug 14, 2006 11:00 pm
Location: L-Imqabba, Malta
National Flag:
Malta
Has thanked: 6376 times
Been thanked: 9264 times
Gender: Male
BayernForum.com fan club: Active member
BayernForum.com donator: Yes

Re: Robert Lewandowski

Postby aterford » Mon Mar 05, 2018 6:28 pm

I'm not sure that's really a reasonable conclusion to draw.
Let's say you make such a graph. Between age 29 and age 30, is there a €60m+ drop-off in performance value? I don't think that's the case the majority of the time. Further, I don't think many top clubs would quibble over the difference of €10m per season.
In any such case, it's somewhat playing to averages. Sure - many players drop off after age 30 - but that does not make it a hard and fast rule (and even if it were - there are always exceptions). Look at a guy like Ibrahimovic, who was still playing at a TOP level at age 33, 34. Lewandowski has been a very healthy player on the whole, and I'd wager on him being the "exception" rather than the "rule". Being married to a nutritionist who also happens to be formally trained in physical education and is a world-champion athlete also has its perks.

In whatever case, I still think the notion that a player who's arguably the best at his position in the world and by many accounts a top-10 player in the world (irrespective of position) would sell for €40-55m in today's market is just absurd. Again, I would challenge you to find how many people would agree with that view. Frankly I'd be surprised if there's anybody in-the-know who would say the same.
User avatar
aterford
I'm a post king!
 
Years of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membership
 
Posts: 2645
Joined: Mon Jul 08, 2013 8:40 am
Has thanked: 2213 times
Been thanked: 1416 times
Gender: Male

Re: Robert Lewandowski

Postby MUTU » Mon Mar 05, 2018 7:36 pm

aterford wrote:I'm not sure that's really a reasonable conclusion to draw.
Let's say you make such a graph. Between age 29 and age 30, is there a €60m+ drop-off in performance value?


Yes, you made such research yourself. Look at record breaking transfers between the ages of 29 and 30 and there is a big disparity. That's your answer. That one year makes a hell of a difference and there is no way we are going to triple the world transfer record for a 30 year old.
30GB free cloud storage. Click here for the referral.
User avatar
MUTU
Site Admin & EURO 2016 Prediction Game Winner
Site Admin & EURO 2016 Prediction Game Winner
 
Years of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membership
 
Posts: 35486
Joined: Mon Aug 14, 2006 11:00 pm
Location: L-Imqabba, Malta
National Flag:
Malta
Has thanked: 6376 times
Been thanked: 9264 times
Gender: Male
BayernForum.com fan club: Active member
BayernForum.com donator: Yes

Re: Robert Lewandowski

Postby aaaaaa » Mon Mar 05, 2018 8:36 pm

MUTU wrote:
aterford wrote:I'm not sure that's really a reasonable conclusion to draw.
Let's say you make such a graph. Between age 29 and age 30, is there a €60m+ drop-off in performance value?


Yes, you made such research yourself. Look at record breaking transfers between the ages of 29 and 30 and there is a big disparity. That's your answer. That one year makes a hell of a difference and there is no way we are going to triple the world transfer record for a 30 year old.


and how many top players in the world were sold at the age of 30 ? I ll guess very few; we will just have to wait and see
User avatar
aaaaaa
Getting the hang of it
 
Years of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membership
 
Posts: 46
Joined: Mon Sep 22, 2008 10:37 pm
Has thanked: 9 times
Been thanked: 11 times
Gender: Male

Re: Robert Lewandowski

Postby aterford » Mon Mar 05, 2018 8:45 pm

MUTU wrote:
aterford wrote:I'm not sure that's really a reasonable conclusion to draw.
Let's say you make such a graph. Between age 29 and age 30, is there a €60m+ drop-off in performance value?


Yes, you made such research yourself. Look at record breaking transfers between the ages of 29 and 30 and there is a big disparity. That's your answer. That one year makes a hell of a difference and there is no way we are going to triple the world transfer record for a 30 year old.


No, that's not what I asked; you're answering the wrong question.
You know as well as anyone that transfer fee is not always directly linked with performance value.

It's a bit disingenuous to say "What is the record fee for a 30-year old?" and then move the goalposts to say "Yes Lewy will be 29 when he transfers but he will be 30 when the season starts so you can't compare him to other 29-year old transfers". Unless he sells on deadline day, he will - in all likelihood - be 29. Period. So the question is not "What is the record for a 30 year old" or "We won't triple the record for a 30 year old" - of course we won't. Because he'll be 29. 29 at the time of the transfer is 29. Provided we sell him prior to his birthday (if we sell him, we will) - he will be transferred at 29 years old - not 30 years old. Trying to spin it into "look at the disparity between 29 and 30" is irrelevant because 29 can't ever be 30 at the same time.

So then we see: 29 year olds - like Lewandowski - have easily sold for more than €40-55m. No problem.

Still, I have a few questions that keep getting ignored in favor of repeatedly bringing the conversation back to "but he is almost 30":

First - do you believe a club like Real Madrid would pass on a player over a difference of €10m per season? Keep in mind said player has been a target of theirs for ~5 years and they are worth ~€3.5 billion.

Second - let's remove Lewandowski from the equation.
Hypothetically speaking, you have a player who is 29 years old and has a contract until 2021. He is the best striker in the world - at worst, second best - and is one of the ten best players in the world.
To compare to similarly aged players at his position, on-strike wantaway Aubameyang (28 y.o.) sold for €62m; 29 y.o. Diego Costa moved for €66m, 28 y.o. Higuain sold for €90m, etc.
We know the market has been heavily inflated with sales such as Neymar, Dembele, Mbappe, Coutinho, etc; additionally, the extra cash being pumped into the TV deals have forced prices upward.

With all that in mind, how much do you honestly think such a player would command on the open market?

Ok, now let's bring Lewandowski back into the equation. Again this has been avoided: can you find anybody else who honestly believes he would only sell for €40-55m?
User avatar
aterford
I'm a post king!
 
Years of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membership
 
Posts: 2645
Joined: Mon Jul 08, 2013 8:40 am
Has thanked: 2213 times
Been thanked: 1416 times
Gender: Male

Re: Robert Lewandowski

Postby MUTU » Mon Mar 05, 2018 10:18 pm

Let's just agree to disagree. If a bid exceeding 100m comes along, we'll revisit. I remain extremely sceptical. Also I don't conform to that best striker or at least second best in the world. Nobody except a Bayern fan can think that. The best striker in the world is by far, head and shoulders, Cristiano Ronaldo. If people thought Lewandowski was better, he would be winning one Ballon d'Or after another instead of Ronaldo rather than failing to make the final 3. Also, for me, Kane and Suarez are better.
30GB free cloud storage. Click here for the referral.
User avatar
MUTU
Site Admin & EURO 2016 Prediction Game Winner
Site Admin & EURO 2016 Prediction Game Winner
 
Years of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membership
 
Posts: 35486
Joined: Mon Aug 14, 2006 11:00 pm
Location: L-Imqabba, Malta
National Flag:
Malta
Has thanked: 6376 times
Been thanked: 9264 times
Gender: Male
BayernForum.com fan club: Active member
BayernForum.com donator: Yes

Re: Robert Lewandowski

Postby #12 » Mon Mar 05, 2018 10:39 pm

aterford wrote:
Manchu wrote:
MUTU wrote:Just curious, what is the world transfer record for a player in his 30s?

I believe it is Bonucci to AC Milan for 42 million euros


Lewy will be 29 when he transfers.
Off the top of my head, 29-year old Zidane transferred to Real Madrid for €75m - in 2001, which is equal to approx. €100m today...and that was before the crazy inflation that has recently hit the transfer market.
29-y.o. Rui Costa cost €49.7m in 2001 or €65m today.


100? Try 200... IIRC Zidane was the most expensive transfer at the time? Even if it was top 3... If you want to compare, you have to go way higher...
JUPPJUPPJUPPJUPPJUPPJUPPJUPPJUPPJUPPJUPPJUPPJUPPJUPPJUPPJUPP
User avatar
#12
Extreme Pessimist
 
Years of membershipYears of membershipYears of membership
 
Posts: 11679
Joined: Sat May 16, 2015 1:31 pm
National Flag:
Germany
Has thanked: 466 times
Been thanked: 2893 times
Gender: Male

Re: Robert Lewandowski

Postby aterford » Mon Mar 05, 2018 10:46 pm

MUTU wrote:Let's just agree to disagree. If a bid exceeding 100m comes along, we'll revisit. I remain extremely sceptical. Also I don't conform to that best striker or at least second best in the world. Nobody except a Bayern fan can think that. The best striker in the world is by far, head and shoulders, Cristiano Ronaldo. If people thought Lewandowski was better, he would be winning one Ballon d'Or after another instead of Ronaldo rather than failing to make the final 3. Also, for me, Kane and Suarez are better.


All good brother. I apologize if I came off too abrasive.
Ronaldo is a better player, sure, but prior to this season I don't think anybody would have put him in the center forward conversation (and I'm still not sure he's wholly in it; for me he's just a "forward" rather than a true center forward/striker). Even still, Lewy is measurably better than Kane and Suarez and it's not that close right now (Kane is a bit closer. Suarez not so much). There's room for interpretation regarding the numbers but looking at it objectively (if we consider CR7 to be a striker) I don't think you could call Lewandowski any worse than 3rd best in the world at his position. Similarly, I think that he's near-universally regarded as a top-10 player in the world, Bayern fans or non-Bayern fans alike. And of course, you know as well as anyone that the Ballon d'Or is little more than a popularity contest right now (and should be noted that Ronaldo was playing primarily LW, not striker ever year he's won the award). But anyways. There is certainly some room for debate, but you'd be hard pressed to find many who don't think he's top-5 CF and say, top-15 overall. I think the most staunch Lewy-hater would have a hard time going much further than that.

Anyways. Truthfully I think it will land somewhere in the middle. I would be surprised to see a bid of €150m or more, but I think it would certainly be more than €40-55m (again, IMO at that price just about every club in Europe would be calling us, haha). Realistically, I think the €100m ballpark is perfectly feasible, and sadly I think we'd probably take that with a smile. I think that at the end of the day if we get a potential record-breaking fee (for a Bayern sale) we probably won't put up much resistance.

As I mentioned earlier it comes down to balancing "transfer value" with "sporting" or "performance value".
For example, let's say it would cost us at least €100m to replace Lewandowski's "performance value" - i.e. his contributions on the pitch and his production would require us buying at least €100m worth of players to get the same production (not necessarily in one player). If we feel we can replace his production for that kind of money, then it stands to reason that any bid above that number should be considered.
On the flip side, let's say that he maintains a high level of form going into next season, perhaps with a slight drop-off to where his "performance value" is about €90m. But with him being a year older and closer to end of contract - and less suitors (as Madrid will certainly have found their new CF by then) - we only get an offer of €65m. Now, we see that in regards to replacing his contribution we'd be €25m "in the red". At this point it starts to make more sense to just force him to see out his contract, as the value he brings on the pitch is greater than the value we'd receive in a sale.

For me, this summer seems to be the perfect balance of the two, regarding a potential sale. I am of the opinion he moves this summer or he likely sees out his contract here.
By 2019 Madrid will have their new CF, no doubt in my mind. That rules out the primary suitor. Lewy will be one year closer to out of contract, and then he'll really be 30 :wink: and pushing 31. The offers we would get next summer would, IMO, not be commensurate to his on-pitch value.
User avatar
aterford
I'm a post king!
 
Years of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membership
 
Posts: 2645
Joined: Mon Jul 08, 2013 8:40 am
Has thanked: 2213 times
Been thanked: 1416 times
Gender: Male

Re: Robert Lewandowski

Postby aterford » Mon Mar 05, 2018 10:47 pm

#12 wrote:
aterford wrote:
Lewy will be 29 when he transfers.
Off the top of my head, 29-year old Zidane transferred to Real Madrid for €75m - in 2001, which is equal to approx. €100m today...and that was before the crazy inflation that has recently hit the transfer market.
29-y.o. Rui Costa cost €49.7m in 2001 or €65m today.


100? Try 200... IIRC Zidane was the most expensive transfer at the time? Even if it was top 3... If you want to compare, you have to go way higher...


I just plugged in the sale value in 2001 and calculated the inflation between now and then....€1 in 2001 = about €1.32 in 2008; €75m x 1.32 = ~$100m
User avatar
aterford
I'm a post king!
 
Years of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membership
 
Posts: 2645
Joined: Mon Jul 08, 2013 8:40 am
Has thanked: 2213 times
Been thanked: 1416 times
Gender: Male

PreviousNext

Return to Bayern Transfer Rumours & News

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: DotBot [Bot], envagyokazapad, SemrushBot [Bot] and 9 guests