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Julian Brandt

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Re: Julian Brandt

Postby Roonzil » Tue Jun 27, 2017 10:45 pm

Well, if the Coman case turns out really really badly, I can definitely see us making a move for Brandt a bit earlier than originally planned (assuming it's planned at all of course)


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Re: Julian Brandt

Postby ramsej84 » Wed Jun 28, 2017 7:01 am

Coman would have been in deeper shit had LePen won the Pres elec...

He should be ashamed of himself...

Having said that such offense doesn't lead to a prison sentence...

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Re: Julian Brandt

Postby Isabella » Wed Jun 28, 2017 9:01 am

Roonzil wrote:Well, if the Coman case turns out really really badly, I can definitely see us making a move for Brandt a bit earlier than originally planned (assuming it's planned at all of course)


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Unlikely... Voeller does not want sell him to us or will ask too much money...
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Re: Julian Brandt

Postby Roonzil » Wed Jun 28, 2017 9:41 am

Isabella wrote:
Roonzil wrote:Well, if the Coman case turns out really really badly, I can definitely see us making a move for Brandt a bit earlier than originally planned (assuming it's planned at all of course)


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Unlikely... Voeller does not want sell him to us or will ask too much money...


You're absolutely right..they're a pain in the arse to deal with in the transfer window :lol:
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Re: Julian Brandt

Postby #12 » Wed Jun 28, 2017 4:09 pm

ramsej84 wrote:Coman would have been in deeper shit had LePen won the Pres elec...

He should be ashamed of himself...

Having said that such offense doesn't lead to a prison sentence...

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Because? She doesn't give a shit about law and order?
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Re: Julian Brandt

Postby ramsej84 » Wed Jun 28, 2017 5:44 pm

#12 wrote:
ramsej84 wrote:Coman would have been in deeper shit had LePen won the Pres elec...

He should be ashamed of himself...

Having said that such offense doesn't lead to a prison sentence...

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Because? She doesn't give a shit about law and order?


cause she is a woman so he will be punished even more :P
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Re: Julian Brandt

Postby Roonzil » Wed Jun 28, 2017 6:10 pm

ramsej84 wrote:
#12 wrote:
ramsej84 wrote:Coman would have been in deeper shit had LePen won the Pres elec...

He should be ashamed of himself...

Having said that such offense doesn't lead to a prison sentence...

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Because? She doesn't give a shit about law and order?


cause she is a woman so he will be punished even more :P


Makes sense, as women everywhere are suffering with men in positions of power :coffee:
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Julian Brandt

Postby #12 » Wed Jun 28, 2017 6:10 pm

Yeah I kinda got that - but you DO know France is still a democracy right? Séparation des pouvoirs?

(Hope tflags doesn't read this... Guy's gonna be maaaaad... )
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Re: Julian Brandt

Postby IsiahRashad » Wed Jun 28, 2017 6:22 pm

tflags,I'm going to spend you some nerve:

Stick to the topic goddamnit ! One more post or quote in a different language and I'm going North Korean on this thread. You have been warned. :evil:
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Re: Julian Brandt

Postby #12 » Wed Jun 28, 2017 6:25 pm

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Re: Julian Brandt

Postby Isabella » Wed Jun 28, 2017 6:46 pm

If Bayern really want Brandt he will be here next summer... Voeller's dream is likely sell him this summer for a big price to some club not called Bayern, but I do not think he will be able to do it considering what Brandt is saying lately about Bayern (and I read that like "I will go at Bayern when they will be able to buy me and I am waiting for that, this summer is impossible so I will stay at Leverkusen another year" because the poor kid can not explicity say that)
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Re: Julian Brandt

Postby OhioFan » Wed Jun 28, 2017 6:55 pm

IsiahRashad wrote:tflags,I'm going to spend you some nerve:

Stick to the topic goddamnit ! One more post or quote in a different language and I'm going North Korean on this thread. You have been warned. :evil:


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Re: Julian Brandt

Postby Manchu » Sat Jul 01, 2017 7:54 am

#12 wrote:He can be a winger, but not for Bayern Munich... We rely heavily on game changers in the last third... Those need to be pacey, good in small spaces, versatile and good in 1vs1... Brandt has his strengths, but none of them complement our wingplay...

Why? How exactly do the qualities you desire fit into your tactical vision for the team?

These might seem like dumb questions, but they are not. Both Costa and Coman fit well with your criteria. They're fast, good in 1vs1, and fairly good(particularly Costa) at dribbling in tight spaces. The only criteria that they don't fit is that they aren't incredibly versatile, but who(other than Kimmich) is?

Yet they are not good enough for Bayern in their present forms. Costa is done for as a starter and Coman needs a lot of development, at the very least.

Why? They do seem to have a lot of the traditional qualities of wingers, yet the results they bring home are dismal. Perhaps some of the traditional criteria are no longer accurate to the modern game. In fact, I believe that the most important criteria for players in the attacking mid zone(left wing, center attacking mid, right wing) are
1. Intelligence/Vision/Positioning
2. Passing Ability
3. Workrate
4. Pace
5. Finishing
6. Dribbling

Dribbling is flashy, so it gets the most attention, but from a tactical prospective it's most useful when combined with pace in counter attacking situations. However, even then good ball distribution is extremely important because one bad pass or even just one perfectly good pass to the wrong player can ruin a counter attack.

When facing a prepared defense, dribbling is often worse than useless from a tactical prospective(unless you're as good as Messi) because it's very easy to lose the ball to the defender providing cover even if you get past the first defender, thus ruining the entire attack. Thus, dribbling usually only works well if either the tactical system has a use for it(even if it's only "beat the fullback and then cross to the forwards") or if the player dribbling is intelligent enough to pass at the optimal moments after distorting the defense through his dribbling.

Intelligent passing and movement, meanwhile, tend to be universally strong offensive tools that fit into a wide variety of tactical systems.

Anyways, to be blunt, I feel like Brandt is, from a tactical prospective, a very useful player, due to his ability to carry the ball forward rapidly and then distribute it perfectly on the counter attack and through his ability to break through readied defenses through very clever passing. He's not necessarily a traditional winger, but neither Robben nor Ribery were when we first bought them.

Gnabry, on the other hand, seems like he would be a good center forward, but I don't want him playing on the wing because his play is too one dimensional, and I'm not a tremendous fan of his transfer.
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Re: Julian Brandt

Postby #12 » Sat Jul 01, 2017 9:22 am

Manchu wrote:
#12 wrote:He can be a winger, but not for Bayern Munich... We rely heavily on game changers in the last third... Those need to be pacey, good in small spaces, versatile and good in 1vs1... Brandt has his strengths, but none of them complement our wingplay...

Why? How exactly do the qualities you desire fit into your tactical vision for the team?

These might seem like dumb questions, but they are not. Both Costa and Coman fit well with your criteria. They're fast, good in 1vs1, and fairly good(particularly Costa) at dribbling in tight spaces. The only criteria that they don't fit is that they aren't incredibly versatile, but who(other than Kimmich) is?

Yet they are not good enough for Bayern in their present forms. Costa is done for as a starter and Coman needs a lot of development, at the very least.

Why? They do seem to have a lot of the traditional qualities of wingers, yet the results they bring home are dismal. Perhaps some of the traditional criteria are no longer accurate to the modern game. In fact, I believe that the most important criteria for players in the attacking mid zone(left wing, center attacking mid, right wing) are
1. Intelligence/Vision/Positioning
2. Passing Ability
3. Workrate
4. Pace
5. Finishing
6. Dribbling

Dribbling is flashy, so it gets the most attention, but from a tactical prospective it's most useful when combined with pace in counter attacking situations. However, even then good ball distribution is extremely important because one bad pass or even just one perfectly good pass to the wrong player can ruin a counter attack.

When facing a prepared defense, dribbling is often worse than useless from a tactical prospective(unless you're as good as Messi) because it's very easy to lose the ball to the defender providing cover even if you get past the first defender, thus ruining the entire attack. Thus, dribbling usually only works well if either the tactical system has a use for it(even if it's only "beat the fullback and then cross to the forwards") or if the player dribbling is intelligent enough to pass at the optimal moments after distorting the defense through his dribbling.

Intelligent passing and movement, meanwhile, tend to be universally strong offensive tools that fit into a wide variety of tactical systems.

Anyways, to be blunt, I feel like Brandt is, from a tactical prospective, a very useful player, due to his ability to carry the ball forward rapidly and then distribute it perfectly on the counter attack and through his ability to break through readied defenses through very clever passing. He's not necessarily a traditional winger, but neither Robben nor Ribery were when we first bought them.

Gnabry, on the other hand, seems like he would be a good center forward, but I don't want him playing on the wing because his play is too one dimensional, and I'm not a tremendous fan of his transfer.


It's not flexibility and versatility in general, but in 1vs1... Costa has a SHIT attitude first and foremost... And I don't think Costa is too good in tight spaces (neither is Coman tbh...)
And it's not about "the game" in general, but our game... We have 70% possession on average - it's cause our opponent is almost always pressed backwards close to their box... And since they won't stop defending just because they play the soon to be considered FORMER giant Bayern Munich, we need players to make the difference, to create spaces and holes in their defense and to throw them out of whack...
To me, Brandt is the archetype of a counter-attacking "winger"...
Then again against the real giants we didn't have that mich possession so maybe we should go for counterattacking to take away the occasional lucky win...
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Re: Julian Brandt

Postby Manchu » Sun Jul 09, 2017 7:59 am

#12 wrote:
It's not flexibility and versatility in general, but in 1vs1... Costa has a SHIT attitude first and foremost... And I don't think Costa is too good in tight spaces (neither is Coman tbh...)
And it's not about "the game" in general, but our game... We have 70% possession on average - it's cause our opponent is almost always pressed backwards close to their box... And since they won't stop defending just because they play the soon to be considered FORMER giant Bayern Munich, we need players to make the difference, to create spaces and holes in their defense and to throw them out of whack...
To me, Brandt is the archetype of a counter-attacking "winger"...
Then again against the real giants we didn't have that mich possession so maybe we should go for counterattacking to take away the occasional lucky win...

So you want players who can create chances by beating players 1vs1 against a parked bus. Therefore, you should focus less on pace. Pace is only really important when counterattacking; when trying to break through a set defense, it is useless.

As for Costa and Coman, I think you're misunderstanding the problem. Costa is very strong at dribbling in tight spaces and in 1vs1s generally, he just sucks at creating chances in tight spaces because he isn't very tactically intelligent. However poor his attitude, it is not the cause of his lack of performance. If you look at his transfermarkt page from 2015/16, you can see this clearly. He played well for 7 games and then stopped, and, in the year and a half since, hasn't improved. Why? Because he was only good at fulfilling his role in Guardiola's system as a player who beat his man and then crossed without looking.

And, in general, I think you put too much emphasis on the use of dribbling to break down defenses. Leroy had 5 goals and 5 assists in the premier league for Man City last season. How many were the result of his superb dribbling skills? Only 1(he won a penalty after getting tripped in the box by a defender that he had beat). The other 9 didn't involve dribbling; in fact, he got a couple assists by pretending to take on a defender while actually picking out a pass, something that Brandt does frequently.

In fact, dribbling is not necessary for taking apart a parked bus, as we can see from the fact that Thomas Muller is one of the best on our team at doing that and he sucks at dribbling.

Why? Because there are multiple routes to taking down a parked bus, and dribbling is, at best, one of them, and clever passing is, in fact, another deadly weapon to dealing with those. Hereand
hereare a couple examples of what some very intelligent passing can do to a team playing defensively. Brandt is very good at that sort of thing. Of course, that is regardless of his skill at dribbling, where there is a very strange level of disagreement about whether he's a good or bad dribbler.


It's funny that you characterize Brandt as "the archetypal counter-attacking winger" because, for me, Robben is the archetypal counter-attacking winger.

I do agree with you that this team needs to focus more on counter-attacking. In 2012-13, we had a team that transitioned into attack very rapidly and we won everything, but today we struggle badly against teams which we can't beat by dominating the midfield.

This also seems like a good move because there are always opportunities to counterattack, even against very defensive teams. To provide a couple recent examples, Real Madrid scored their first goal in the Champions league final this year against a quite defensive Juventus on a counter attack after a set piece, and Mexico tied a very defensive US in the Azteca by doing the same. Even if we only get 3 or 4 opportunities to counter attack a game, that can go a long way if we're so good at it that we score 1 or 2 goals from them.

Finally, to be honest, there is another reason I am so enthusiastic about Brandt. It all comes back to Goalimpact, which is an algorithm based on the goal differential, adjusted by the strength of your opponent, of your team when you are on the pitch vs off it. A high goalimpact indicates that you are a good player while a low goalimpact indicates that you are not.

Anyways, there is a very high correlation between being commonly considered a good player and having a high goalimpact(for example Neuer has the highest goalimpact of all the keepers in the world), and also a very strong correlation between having a high goalimpact(relative to your age) when you are a young player and having a high goalimpact when you are at your peak.

For example, here's the goalimpact chart of Eden Hazard:
Can't see tweet? Click here!
The dark red line represents his goalimpact, the light red line represents his estimated peak goalimpact at the age of 26(if he were to improve and lose proficiency at the average, and blue line represents his performance over the last two years(the blue line contains a lot of noise due to the limited amount of data and goes up and down a lot, so I would advice you not to put too much stock in it).

For context, Eden Hazard is, in goalimpact terms, one of the best wingers(and, more generally, players) in the world. He would be a very strong addition to our team(we do have one better winger on our team, but most people like it better when this player plays in the center).

Here, for comparison, is Alexandre Lacazette.
Can't see tweet? Click here! This is an example of a player who is good enough to play in the Premier League, but who would be, at best, a bench player at Bayern.

Finally, for comparison, here is a player who would not be good enough for the Bundesliga
Can't see tweet? Click here!

Now that you have an idea what a particular goalimpact score means, we can check a couple of our transfers/prospective transfers:
Can't see tweet? Click here!
You're right about Gnabry. He is neither good enough for Bayern nor likely to develop into a player who is good enough for us(for comparison, the average goalimpact of our best starting line up is around ~170). Hopefully, he goes on loan and we end up selling him to some unsuspecting club for a profit.

Now, here is Julian Brandt's graph
Can't see tweet? Click here!
Hazard had a goalimpact of ~135 when he turned 21. Gnabry had a goalimpact of ~105. Brandt had a goalimpact of ~160, and, like Hazard and unlike Gnabry, he has a history of improving faster than average(if you want find out about a player who has improved slower than average, look no further than Draxler, by the way). Brandt is, or at least will be in a couple years, firmly in the category of "you don't try to fit him into a spot on your team, you try to build the team around him."

Goalimpact is a measure of how much you help your team win, not how flashy you are, and what it tells us is that whatever Brandt does is highly effective at helping his team score goals while avoiding conceding them.

And yes, before you ask, Leroy Sane is rated highly by goalimpact, although not quite as highly as Brandt.
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