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2017/18 Generic Transfer Thread

Rumours and news about the transfer market. Who are FC Bayern attempting to sign? Who's going to leave? Find it all here.
 

Your favourite winger signing?

Pulisic
12
50%
Bailey
6
25%
No one: renew Robbery
1
4%
No one, renew Robben
1
4%
No one, renew Ribery
0
No votes
Someone else
4
17%
 
Total votes : 24

Re: 2017/18 Generic Transfer Thread

Postby tuscanybayern » Sun Jan 21, 2018 10:20 am

I think we will most likely see:

----COMAN/GNABRY----MULLER/JAMES-----X/ROBBEN

which means we need a left footed right winger. Bailey plays as a lw but he is actually left footed, hence the deal could really happen but I see Bayern unlikely to put more than 40 millions on him. Kid isn't going to shine at the World Cup.
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Re: 2017/18 Generic Transfer Thread

Postby ramsej84 » Sun Jan 21, 2018 10:27 am

We can always find someone during the World Cup

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Re: 2017/18 Generic Transfer Thread

Postby Bamu » Sun Jan 21, 2018 10:59 am

tuscanybayern wrote:I think we will most likely see:

----COMAN/GNABRY----MULLER/JAMES-----X/ROBBEN

which means we need a left footed right winger. Bailey plays as a lw but he is actually left footed, hence the deal could really happen but I see Bayern unlikely to put more than 40 millions on him. Kid isn't going to shine at the World Cup.


This is just how I see it. Only problem being Leverkusen reluctant to sell Bailey to us and other big clubs from Premier League calling and throwing money at them. These factors ramp up the price closer to 50-60m IMO.
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Re: 2017/18 Generic Transfer Thread

Postby #12 » Sun Jan 21, 2018 11:54 am

It’s gonna be Brandt and that’s it, face it...
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Re: 2017/18 Generic Transfer Thread

Postby ramsej84 » Sun Jan 21, 2018 12:20 pm

#12 wrote:It’s gonna be Brandt and that’s it, face it...
Brandt is good, but he is playing out of position if you ask me...

His position should be old classic #10 or as a regista

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Re: 2017/18 Generic Transfer Thread

Postby #12 » Sun Jan 21, 2018 12:38 pm

Well, he’s decent... But I agree... Same goes for Draxler... but we have better players in those positions...
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Re: 2017/18 Generic Transfer Thread

Postby IsiahRashad » Sun Jan 21, 2018 10:15 pm

Uli Hoeneß confirms: "FC Bayern will not sign any more players in January" [BR Sport]
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Re: 2017/18 Generic Transfer Thread

Postby MUTU » Mon Jan 22, 2018 9:51 am

IsiahRashad wrote:Uli Hoeneß confirms: "FC Bayern will not sign any more players in January" [BR Sport]

I know he said it in German so it might have been badly translated, but what's with the "more" word? We didn't sign any players in January, unless he's referring to Goretzka who'll join in Summer. I doubt he's referring to Wooyeong Jeong.
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Re: 2017/18 Generic Transfer Thread

Postby Bamu » Mon Jan 22, 2018 9:58 am

MUTU wrote:
IsiahRashad wrote:Uli Hoeneß confirms: "FC Bayern will not sign any more players in January" [BR Sport]

I know he said it in German so it might have been badly translated, but what's with the "more" word? We didn't sign any players in January, unless he's referring to Goretzka who'll join in Summer. I doubt he's referring to Wooyeong Jeong.


I think he is referring to Wagner.
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Re: 2017/18 Generic Transfer Thread

Postby MUTU » Mon Jan 22, 2018 11:46 am

Bamu wrote:
MUTU wrote:
IsiahRashad wrote:Uli Hoeneß confirms: "FC Bayern will not sign any more players in January" [BR Sport]

I know he said it in German so it might have been badly translated, but what's with the "more" word? We didn't sign any players in January, unless he's referring to Goretzka who'll join in Summer. I doubt he's referring to Wooyeong Jeong.


I think he is referring to Wagner.
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Re: 2017/18 Generic Transfer Thread

Postby Element » Tue Jan 23, 2018 10:14 am

Paris Saint Germain have told Lucas Moura that he is no longer needed and that he is allowed to leave the club. Lucas Moura himself wants to leave as soon as possible to improve his chances to play in the world cup 2018. Paris are apparently ready to let him go for 40 million euros
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Re: 2017/18 Generic Transfer Thread

Postby America USA » Wed Jan 24, 2018 3:30 pm

Am I the only one who despises this transfer gossip shit? Too much speculation involved and therefore it is annoying af.
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Re: 2017/18 Generic Transfer Thread

Postby Manchu » Sat Jan 27, 2018 9:10 am

tuscanybayern wrote:There's no way for Schopf to become "as good as Thiago". Goalimpact is statistics, it tells one side of the story but to some extent they will always be inappropriate given certain circumstances. If I recall correctly the score depends from the goal differences which the player's team achieves with him and without him on the pitch. Let's say that a team, on average, achieves a one-goal difference (1-0, 2-1 etc.) without a player and a a two-goals difference with him in the line-up. As a result, the player's goalimpact will be high, whereas if his presence on field does not make any significant difference, his score will be lower.
Hence, I see Higuain's score easily biased, because whenever he was benched at Real Benzema would substitute him and I doubt this would imply any significant difference. Also, strikers "à la Mandzukic" (which Wagner is, while Higuain isn't) usually get a higher goalimpact because even if they do not score, their team would benefit from their defensive contribution.

The same happens with Thiago: at Barca, he hardly got playing time because of Xavi and Iniesta. At Bayern he is often injured, but we have always had other options to replace him, from Kroos to Alonso and Vidal. Furthermore, I doubt that there is enough relevant data to actually compare Schopf with Thiago. Of course this is just my two pennies' worth, correct me if I'm wrong.

All that being said, I agree with you that we should change the way we deal with our academy products. We should loan them more to other Bundesliga sides as we did with Lahm, Alaba and Kroos. For example, what is going on with Dorsch? A couple of years ago he was quoted to be our next big thing, then he got injured, now he's 20, how are we supposed to assess if he's worth something if he plays just in the 4th division?

Why is it impossible for Schopf to become as good as Thiago? Even without consideration of his high goalimpact, such things as late peaking players has always existed. Luca Toni never played in Serie A until he was 23, and didn't become a permanent fixture in top flight leagues until he was 27. Thus, the most you can claim is that it is unlikely that Schopf becomes as good as Thiago.

I also don't consider that claim to necessarily be true. It's tempting to think Schopf has much lower potential than Thiago because the obvious comparison is between present Schopf and present Thiago, but that is not a fair comparison to make as Thiago is significantly older and better developed. The better comparison to make between 23 year old Thiago and 23 year old Schopf, and I'm not sure Schopf comes out all that worse in that. Remember, although Thiago was regarded as incredible talent when he was very young and is obviously an excellent player now, the years between these two states were not quite so sanguine. Between his arrival here and 2016/17, he never had an exceptionally good season, mainly due to injury.

Of course, the final question is if Schopf and Thiago are even similar enough players that a comparison between them makes sense, and I'm unsure on that. Like I stated before, Schopf is a particular unusual player, and I don't think he necessarily plays the same role as Thiago.


As for goalimpact, you understand the essentials well but underestimate its power. It's basically a system which works by finding connection based on goal difference between 50000+ players that allows allows relative values to be placed on each of them, and, due to the many 1000s of minutes it has on the vast majority of players, it can make extremely fine distinctions between them. You can see some of how this works in this blog post(although the algorithm used there is old and thus the exact numbers don't really match up the one's provided by today's algorithm).

As an example, Kroos, Thiago, Schweinsteiger, Xabi Alonso, and Vidal all have significantly different peak goalimpacts(a measure of how good you are at 26) despite all playing CM at Bayern within a few years of each other. In the same vein, Higuain and Benzema have significantly different goalimpact in the present, and had significantly different ones while they were both at Real Madrid(in both cases, Benzema is seen a better player, although perhaps Higiuan is playing better at the moment).

As for how goalimpact deals with evaluating two equally good players who usually act as substitutes for each other and are not the pitch at same time, it can look at happens while neither player is on the pitch and what happens when both players are on the pitch in addition to national team games and all games before the players ended up on the same team in order determine what the level of each/both players is.

Additionally, there is easily enough data evaluate both Thiago and Schopf. The algorithm has a combined 30000+ minutes across 9 different leagues for them, resulting in Thiago being evaluated as one of the best CMs in the world(although not as good as Kroos or Busquets) and Schopf being evaluated as very talented player). In fact, it only needs about a 1000 minutes in one league to get a statistically significant estimate.

Finally, you are right about how forwards who work hard defensively having higher goalimpacts than equivalently talented forwards who don't. That is kind of a feature instead of a bug. However, I think the real crucial advantage Wagner offers over Higiuan is not defensively but instead in hold up play. I watched Juventus fail in the Champions League final because Higiuan could not do a halfway decent job keeping hold of the ball and then distributing it. In fact, he often managed to get himself trapped in positions where he was surrounded by two or three defenders and couldn't pass the ball to any one of his teammates, much less someone in a position to continue the attack.

By contrast, Wagner is one of the best forwards in the world with regards to holdup and linkup play. I cannot think of anyone who is better at it other than maybe Benzema. Not only is he casually able to keep hold of the ball under pressure(the centerbacks stand no chance against a 1.94 meter behemoth) but he almost always distributes it well once he gets control of it, and the number of throughballs he plays is quite unusual for a center forward.
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Re: 2017/18 Generic Transfer Thread

Postby DerKaiser » Sat Jan 27, 2018 9:53 am

Germany youngster Julian Brandt wants to stay at Bayer Leverkusen [source]
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Re: 2017/18 Generic Transfer Thread

Postby DRvad14 » Wed Jan 31, 2018 3:04 am

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