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Re: Thomas Müller

Postby aterford » Sun Apr 16, 2017 5:09 am

JANCKER wrote:Humans are not cars... he doesn't have the same freedom/role anymore, that's all. AM is where he's most effective.


Is that all? He's spent the vast majority of his career with the DFB playing as RW in a 4-2-3-1 and I think most would agree that he's had a pretty effective career for Germany.

This season, he's played 13 matches at RW, 13 matches as CAM/behind the striker, with only 6 matches as a striker and 2 at LW. So he has played much more 'in position' than he has out of position.

Nonetheless, for the sake of discussion, let's assume the premise that "he doesn't have the same freedom/role" and "AM is where he's most effective" is true. In less than half as many matches at CAM/behind the striker, Thiago has just as many goals and only 4 less assists. Why shouldn't he start there?
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Re: Thomas Müller

Postby JANCKER » Sun Apr 16, 2017 5:24 am

Maybe because Germany had a different football identity/style... Muller would work just fine for Atletico as RW IMO.
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Re: Thomas Müller

Postby aterford » Sun Apr 16, 2017 5:29 am

Atletico's "identity" and style are MUCH further removed from Bayern than the national team's is. Not sure what you're getting at there.....

But nonetheless this still doesn't address the crux of the issue. Should Müller be starting right now? Has he earned a starting spot ahead of Thiago centrally or Robben out wide? If so, what?
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Re: Thomas Müller

Postby sherpthederp » Sun Apr 16, 2017 5:31 am

aterford wrote:
JANCKER wrote:Humans are not cars... he doesn't have the same freedom/role anymore, that's all. AM is where he's most effective.


Is that all? He's spent the vast majority of his career with the DFB playing as RW in a 4-2-3-1 and I think most would agree that he's had a pretty effective career for Germany.

This season, he's played 13 matches at RW, 13 matches as CAM/behind the striker, with only 6 matches as a striker and 2 at LW. So he has played much more 'in position' than he has out of position.

Nonetheless, for the sake of discussion, let's assume the premise that "he doesn't have the same freedom/role" and "AM is where he's most effective" is true. In less than half as many matches at CAM/behind the striker, Thiago has just as many goals and only 4 less assists. Why shouldn't he start there?

Not that it exonerates him from his terrible form as of late but Carlos utilization of wingers is about 180° opposite of Germany's. Germanys fullbacks play so wide that Müller has never actually played on the "wing" for them lol.

I think the most frustrating thing here is we know Müller is capable of consistent world class performances and wreaking havok on defenses. It's not like Costa where he put in a 3 month run of unreal performances and then fell off the map. Müller is the real deal and if we do some dumb shit like sell him we will regret it for years to come. He does need to figure his shit out before next season though or he will have a real hard time breaking back into the team is Carlo stays for a while.
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Re: Thomas Müller

Postby JANCKER » Sun Apr 16, 2017 5:34 am

Germany was known to get to the goal with only 3 touches, counterattacking football.

Did we bring Thiago to replace Muller? No, he shouldn't start ahead of Muller as AM.
Last edited by JANCKER on Sun Apr 16, 2017 5:38 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Thomas Müller

Postby aterford » Sun Apr 16, 2017 5:38 am

sherpthederp wrote:
aterford wrote:
JANCKER wrote:Humans are not cars... he doesn't have the same freedom/role anymore, that's all. AM is where he's most effective.


Is that all? He's spent the vast majority of his career with the DFB playing as RW in a 4-2-3-1 and I think most would agree that he's had a pretty effective career for Germany.

This season, he's played 13 matches at RW, 13 matches as CAM/behind the striker, with only 6 matches as a striker and 2 at LW. So he has played much more 'in position' than he has out of position.

Nonetheless, for the sake of discussion, let's assume the premise that "he doesn't have the same freedom/role" and "AM is where he's most effective" is true. In less than half as many matches at CAM/behind the striker, Thiago has just as many goals and only 4 less assists. Why shouldn't he start there?

Not that it exonerates him from his terrible form as of late but Carlos utilization of wingers is about 180° opposite of Germany's. Germanys fullbacks play so wide that Müller has never actually played on the "wing" for them lol.

I think the most frustrating thing here is we know Müller is capable of consistent world class performances and wreaking havok on defenses. It's not like Costa where he put in a 3 month run of unreal performances and then fell off the map. Müller is the real deal and if we do some dumb shit like sell him we will regret it for years to come. He does need to figure his shit out before next season though or he will have a real hard time breaking back into the team is Carlo stays for a while.


I don't necessarily disagree but the thing is this: Müller put in literal years of unreal performances and then *did* fall off the map. Again I know it's probably coming off as harsh on Müller and I don't mean for it to sound that way, I really do hope he figures things out...but at the end of the day here's my main question. What has Müller done to earn Carlo's trust? If you're Ancelotti, why would you play Müller when others have shown they can play his 'role' arguably just as well? If Carlo is here for a full three years, Müller needs to get things figured out QUICK or like you said he's gonna have a hard time getting on the pitch. And I can't really blame Ancelotti. I know Müller has had a stellar career but what matters is right now and what he's doing currently. What he did a season or two ago doesn't help the team out right now....So like I said, If I'm Carlo, sadly I don't think I have much reason to give him more chances at the moment.
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Re: Thomas Müller

Postby Thiagoalcantara » Sun Apr 16, 2017 6:06 am

JANCKER wrote:Maybe because Germany had a different football identity/style... Muller would work just fine for Atletico as RW IMO.


No he wouldn't.

He would only work under the griezmann role, which is essentially the SS role behind Gamiero/Torres. Carrasco actually is pretty legit on the wings and Koke main job is to swing passes to the box from the wings and help the midfield in defense.
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Re: Thomas Müller

Postby Thiagoalcantara » Sun Apr 16, 2017 6:08 am

JANCKER wrote:Germany was known to get to the goal with only 3 touches, counterattacking football.

Did we bring Thiago to replace Muller? No, he shouldn't start ahead of Muller as AM.


Thiago will probably moved to the Alonso role next season and if Carlo buys a new cam, Muller F.
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Re: Thomas Müller

Postby JANCKER » Sun Apr 16, 2017 6:15 am

Thiagoalcantara wrote:
JANCKER wrote:Germany was known to get to the goal with only 3 touches, counterattacking football.

Did we bring Thiago to replace Muller? No, he shouldn't start ahead of Muller as AM.


Thiago will probably moved to the Alonso role next season and if Carlo buys a new cam, Muller F.


Hmm we'll see, Uli is here... it's not like the last 3 years when we didn't have a president and everyone was F left and right. :P
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Re: Thomas Müller

Postby Thiagoalcantara » Sun Apr 16, 2017 6:24 am

aterford wrote:It's actually something interesting to consider. I hope it's not the case, but Müller has put a lot of miles on his legs so even though he's 27 he's probably played as much as the average player in their 30s.

Just for a quick comparison I looked at the minutes played by Müller and compared them to Schweinsteiger.
Since joining the senior team and with Bayern, Man Utd, Chicago, and DFB, Schweinsteiger has averaged around 3,400 minutes played per season.
By the same measure, Müller with Bayern/DFB has averaged close to 4,500 per season.

This figure doesn't include youth playing records but honestly Müller logged considerably more minutes as a youth as well which would likely just inflate the disparity here.

So, all that to show that perhaps the mileage has begun to take its toll. Again, while I hope that's not the case, it's not entirely unheard of for guys who have played since a young age to hit a wall so to speak younger than you might expect (a guy like Rooney is a good example IMO)


Janker sees it, he just doesnt admit it. I said this last season too. Muller looked burnt out as a player.

The fact Muller isnt as hardworking as before, you can easily see the distinction from current Muller workrate vs past Muller workrate. It's night and day. Muller has always been a hardworking player, not a player that saved himself for goals like Cristiano, but a player like Cavani that ran, ran, and ran all day and worked hard for the team as a whole. Now, he doesnt do that at all.

Usually, that happens when your body cant do it anymore...
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Re: Thomas Müller

Postby sherpthederp » Sun Apr 16, 2017 6:27 am

aterford wrote:
I don't necessarily disagree but the thing is this: Müller put in literal years of unreal performances and then *did* fall off the map. Again I know it's probably coming off as harsh on Müller and I don't mean for it to sound that way, I really do hope he figures things out...but at the end of the day here's my main question. What has Müller done to earn Carlo's trust? If you're Ancelotti, why would you play Müller when others have shown they can play his 'role' arguably just as well? If Carlo is here for a full three years, Müller needs to get things figured out QUICK or like you said he's gonna have a hard time getting on the pitch. And I can't really blame Ancelotti. I know Müller has had a stellar career but what matters is right now and what he's doing currently. What he did a season or two ago doesn't help the team out right now....So like I said, If I'm Carlo, sadly I don't think I have much reason to give him more chances at the moment.

What I was getting at is his peak wasn't a fluke like Costas here, we know he's capable of maintaining that level, he's just gotta get back there. Müller and Costa have both had dismal seasons but I have more faith in Thomas to regain that form than I do Costa.
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Re: Thomas Müller

Postby Thiagoalcantara » Sun Apr 16, 2017 6:29 am

sherpthederp wrote:
aterford wrote:
I don't necessarily disagree but the thing is this: Müller put in literal years of unreal performances and then *did* fall off the map. Again I know it's probably coming off as harsh on Müller and I don't mean for it to sound that way, I really do hope he figures things out...but at the end of the day here's my main question. What has Müller done to earn Carlo's trust? If you're Ancelotti, why would you play Müller when others have shown they can play his 'role' arguably just as well? If Carlo is here for a full three years, Müller needs to get things figured out QUICK or like you said he's gonna have a hard time getting on the pitch. And I can't really blame Ancelotti. I know Müller has had a stellar career but what matters is right now and what he's doing currently. What he did a season or two ago doesn't help the team out right now....So like I said, If I'm Carlo, sadly I don't think I have much reason to give him more chances at the moment.

What I was getting at is his peak wasn't a fluke like Costas here, we know he's capable of maintaining that level, he's just gotta get back there. Müller and Costa have both had dismal seasons but I have more faith in Thomas to regain that form than I do Costa.


I bet you watch costa in Ukraine and Brazil
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Re: Thomas Müller

Postby pyrasur » Sun Apr 16, 2017 6:35 am

aterford wrote:
I don't necessarily disagree but the thing is this: Müller put in literal years of unreal performances and then *did* fall off the map. Again I know it's probably coming off as harsh on Müller and I don't mean for it to sound that way, I really do hope he figures things out...but at the end of the day here's my main question. What has Müller done to earn Carlo's trust? If you're Ancelotti, why would you play Müller when others have shown they can play his 'role' arguably just as well? If Carlo is here for a full three years, Müller needs to get things figured out QUICK or like you said he's gonna have a hard time getting on the pitch. And I can't really blame Ancelotti. I know Müller has had a stellar career but what matters is right now and what he's doing currently. What he did a season or two ago doesn't help the team out right now....So like I said, If I'm Carlo, sadly I don't think I have much reason to give him more chances at the moment.


Sigh, this is frustrating for sure. I think this is a situation now where we have the squad we have and unfortunately at this moment, we have been forced to depend on a Thomas Müller that is a ghost of what he was. He was disappointing against Madrid, but the fear that he showed against Leverkusen... I've felt nerves mess up my technique, but to see a professional athlete have that fear just take over the decision making was sad to see. I couldn't believe that in a game that really didn't matter and in which he NEEDED to find his shooting boots, he just didn't have the balls to shoot.

He's never going to be forced out and sold. But this is Bayern Munich. Unless he finds his real self again, come the summer he will sit for someone who will deliver where Thomas can't. In that case in a year or two the board might be willing to listen to significant offers for Müller. And like the board said, they do not sell players that have something significant to contribute or that they don't want to be rid of. It's a shame because when Lahm is retired, with Schweini already enjoying MLS retirement and the academy producing nothing for the first team, Müller will be probably the only German to be through and through a Bayern man. The only real performers in the team we must thank Schalke and Dortmund for.
而剑法的最高境界,则是手中无剑,心中也无剑,是以大胸怀,包容一切。那便是不杀,便是和平。-英雄
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Re: Thomas Müller

Postby aterford » Sun Apr 16, 2017 6:54 am

JANCKER wrote:Germany was known to get to the goal with only 3 touches, counterattacking football.

Did we bring Thiago to replace Muller? No, he shouldn't start ahead of Muller as AM.


We didn't buy him to replace Müller but the fact of the matter is that he's better at CAM than Müller right now. We're a better team right now with Thiago playing behind the striker than we are with Müller and at the end of the day what's good for the team must take priority ahead of what's good for one player. So yes, Thiago absolutely start ahead of him right now. It's currently indisputable that we're a worse team when he's in the lineup in big games this year.
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Re: Thomas Müller

Postby Manchu » Sun Apr 16, 2017 7:03 am

#12 wrote:So? I didn't make excuses, I acknowledged that... Yet I don't see much difference to Alonso - who is a definitive starter and gets the coaches trust... How do you expect Müller to assist, score, even contribute against big opposition when he never plays, or only gets to play when we're up by three or more already? Also he was rather unlucky, too (I think the player who hit the woodwork most times?!) - and he scored the winner at Gladbach, which I consider decent...
So yeah, you're gonna call it excuses... But they're legit...

It's interesting that you bring up Xabi Alonso because, around a less than a month ago, I realized that Muller plays much better without Xabi Alonso, and just now I've put together more evidence that supports this idea.

Since the end of the Euros, Muller has started in 35 games for club and country. Of those starts, 18 of them were without Xabi Alonso and 17 were with Xabi Alonso.

Here's a list of all the games that Muller has started without Xabi Alonso, along with all the goals and assists he had during those games and the position he was playing at the time.A=away game, H=home game, g=goal and a=assist, just to avoid all possible confusion:

National Team:
Norway A 2g 1a RW
Czech Republic H 2g RW
N. Ireland H 1a RW
San Marino A 2a RW
Italy A none CF
Azerbaijan A 1g RW

Bundesliga:
Hamburger A none RW
Mainz A 1a SS
Wolfsburg H 1g 1a SS
Hertha BSC A none CF
Hamburger H 3a SS
Koln A 1a SS
Frankfurt H 1a SS
Augsburg H 2g 1a
Leverkusen A none CF

Champions League
Rostov H 1g RW

DFP Pokal
Carl Zeiss Jena A 1a RW
Augsberg H 2a RW

So, in short, of the last 18 games that Thomas Muller has started without Xabi Alonso, he has scored or assisted, often multiple times, in 16 of them. The two that he did not score or assist in were when he was playing as a lone center forward, and he has accomplished nothing from that position. Beyond that, it does not seem to matter whether he was playing as right winger or as a secondary striker because he has been world class in both positions, and perhaps has been the most consistent player in the world. I suspect that he could also play as a left winger too without Xabi Alonso.

Now, let us consider those 17 games in the last 8 months where Muller started with Xabi Alonso. Of those, Muller has scored or assisted in only 4 of them. Moreover, the pattern looks like this:
Werder Bremen H 3a RW: Muller had 1 assist(a long cross from far outside the box) when Xabi Alonso is on the field and 2 after Xabi Alonso left the field.

Ingolstodt A 1a AM: Muller has one assist after Xabi Alonso has been subbed off.

PSV H 1g LW: Muller scores off a corner while Xabi Alonso is on the field.

Bor. M'gladbach A 1g SS: Both Xabi Alonso and Thiago are playing as defensive mids, so Bayern has two registas. This presumably lessens the pernicious influence of Xabi Alonso. Moreover, on the play that leads to the goal, Gladbach manmarks Xabi Alonso. This forces the center backs to distribute out wide to Thiago, who dribbles the ball downfield and finds Muller with a long ball.

In short, all of Muller's games where he does not start with Xabi Alonso or as a lone center forward are good ones. Nearly all of Muller's games where he starts with Xabi Alonso are bad ones. This is a remarkably consistent pattern; my main complaint about Carlo Ancelotti is his apparent complete inability to recognize it. This might cost have cost Bayern the Champions League this season, because Ancelotti, for the game against Real Madrid, did the three things that I would, based on my calculations, recommend that Bayern never do in an important match:
1)Play Muller as a long striker
2)Play both Muller and Xabi Alonso
3)Play Xabi Alonso*

Carlo Ancelotti made all three of these mistakes against Madrid. Predictably, we had a bad game. To be fair, it was partially the board's fault for never signing a backup to Lewandowski(in 2012/13 we had two backup strikers, which paid off big time when Mario Gomez missed most of the season through injury).

On the brighter side of things, Muller will likely be back to normal next season because Xabi Alonso will be sitting in his retirement home. Fair weather friends will start supporting him again. The public will adore him again. 99.99% of the public, except for us, will have no idea why Muller underperformed for a year or why he's doing so well now. Bayern might win the trebble.

*Every single calculation I've done suggests that Xabi Alonso weaken both our defense and our offensive, and that we would be preforming like it was 2012/13 if he had broken every bone in his body at the start of the season. Here is the first, simplest, and most pertinent of them(which I only carried out because I noticed that Bayern tended to concede goals whenever Xabi Alonso started):

In the Bundesliga:
Home with XA: 25 goals scored, 6 goals conceded, for GD of +19, in 893 minutes of play, for 2.52 goals scored and 0.64 conceded every 90 minutes.

Home without XA: 23 goals scored, 0 goals conceded, for GD of +23, in 367 minutes of play, for 5.64 goals scored and 0 goals conceded every 90 minutes.

Away with XA: 11 goals scored, 6 goals conceded, for GD of +5, in 791 minutes of play, for 1.25 goals scored and 0.68 conceded every 90 minutes.

Away without XA: 12 goals scored, 3 goals conceded, for GD of +9, in 469 minutes of play, for 2.30 goals scored and 0.58 goals conceded every 90 minutes.

You will notice that playing an away game without Xabi Alonso is effectively equivalent to playing a home game with him(one of the reasons I still have hope in the Champions League), that playing a home game without Xabi Alonso is a recipe for a 6:0 win, and that playing an away game with Xabi Alonso is a recipe for dropping points.

To put these numbers in context, at this point in the season, we've scored 71 goals and conceded 15 in 14 home games and 15 away games, for an(excellent) goal difference of +56. These numbers suggest that, if Xabi Alonso had retired before the beginning of the season, we would have scored 113.46 goals and conceded 8.7 for a goal difference of +104.76.

I'm not condemning Xabi Alonso, because he was a great player, but this is merely evidence that his 35 year old body can't play at the highest level anymore. I'm not sure if his ball distribution has ever worked well with Muller, but that's another story.
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