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General World Cup 2014 Thread

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Re: General World Cup 2014 Thread

Postby MUTU » Tue Dec 03, 2013 10:04 pm

Actually looking at it in more detail it seems that USA and Mexico are more or less equal in bookmakers' eyes, with perhaps even more bookmakers going for USA. However, oddschecker orders by the highest odds, and williamhill gives 201 on USA even though some bookmakers go as low as 67. http://www.oddschecker.com/football/world-cup/winner
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Re: General World Cup 2014 Thread

Postby tflags » Tue Dec 03, 2013 10:19 pm

Didn't the US like qualify first in their group in South Africa; ahead of England?
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Re: General World Cup 2014 Thread

Postby Jorge » Tue Dec 03, 2013 11:45 pm

tflags wrote:Didn't the US like qualify first in their group in South Africa; ahead of England?


They did and sent England to face Germany. It all came down to a Clint Dempsey’s “pass” to Robert Green which he thought it was a shot :mrgreen: but do not be surprised if Hart tries to emulate Green this summer. :lol:

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Re: General World Cup 2014 Thread

Postby ramsej84 » Wed Dec 04, 2013 9:30 am

MUTU wrote:The group of hell according to the Elo rankings would be:

Brazil
Netherlands
USA
England

According to bookmaker odds they would be:

Brazil
Netherlands
Mexico
Italy


If Italy gets that group it will qualify with flying colours. They excel vs the best teams & on the other hand fail miserably against the weaker teams. This is because against the weakest they cannot adopt their preferred style of game...
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Re: General World Cup 2014 Thread

Postby MUTU » Wed Dec 04, 2013 10:03 am

ramsej84 wrote:They excel vs the best teams

Actually, they excel vs Germany and vs the weak teams.
Take a look at Euro 2012. They won just 2 matches in normal/extra time: against Germany and against the weakest team (Republic of Ireland). They lost and drew against Spain, they drew Croatia and they drew England (winning on penalties).
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Re: General World Cup 2014 Thread

Postby Badger » Wed Dec 04, 2013 10:25 am

MUTU wrote:So basically if you're losing a friendly, change loads of players in the last 5 minutes and you won't lose any coefficients. How ridiculous is this?

I consider myself an expert on the subjects having worked on a number of ranking systems (including football ones) and know the best algorithms and maths behind great rankings. The systems used by UEFA and FIFA are, from a mathematical aspect, beyond pathetic.

Arpad E. Elo made a ranking system for chess a long time ago and it's the system on which almost all ranking systems (FIFA and UEFA excluded) are based. There have been improvements since, especially to adapt to sports like football where a team doesn't just win, draw or lose but can win by a big margin (e.g. 5-0). I had made a ranking system which I since stopped updating but took all these factors into effect, including the home advantage based on statistical archived data.

But what is still being kept is a rudimentary, basic Elo system by these guys: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Football_Elo_Ratings

As you can see, it's way better than the FIFA system but if I were to give them my algorithms it would be much better ;) When I'm not busy I will find a means to get historical data for old matches and release the ranking system online. It will be, without any shadow of doubt, the best ranking system for both national teams and club teams.


I find that involvement in the rankings algorithms very interesting, MUTU. (My own degree was Software Engineering.) Did you study it as part of a project, or just out of your own interest?

So basically if you're losing a friendly, change loads of players in the last 5 minutes and you won't lose any coefficients. How ridiculous is this?

I think that it isn't quite that bad. The managers and referee are supposed to agree the maximum number of substitutions, etc, before the game, and stick to the agreement.
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Re: General World Cup 2014 Thread

Postby MUTU » Wed Dec 04, 2013 10:48 am

Own interest as such... Bayernforum isn't the only personal project I had. Originally inspired by my dad, a mathematician and former international chess player who had Elo's book, personally signed by Elo. My dad had done a ranking system for the Malta Chess Federation in the early to mid 80s. As soon as I find a means to obtain such historical data, I am so doing a stats site with rankings etc.
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Re: General World Cup 2014 Thread

Postby Achilles » Wed Dec 04, 2013 10:58 am

Brazuca,the official ball for the World Cup 2014 at Brazil , pretty nice one.



http://www.soccerbyives.net/images/2013/12/BrazucaAdidas2WorldCup2014-Adidas.jpg

P.S:Actually,it would be very hard to create a worse ball than Jabulani :P
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Re: General World Cup 2014 Thread

Postby tflags » Wed Dec 04, 2013 11:40 am

God I miss the Tango.
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Re: General World Cup 2014 Thread

Postby FCBayernMunchen » Wed Dec 04, 2013 11:41 am

MUTU wrote: My dad had done a ranking system for the Malta Chess Federation in the early to mid 80s

My own father was a national chess player at around that time. They probably know each other. ;)
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Re: General World Cup 2014 Thread

Postby MUTU » Wed Dec 04, 2013 11:52 am

FCBayernMunchen wrote:
MUTU wrote: My dad had done a ranking system for the Malta Chess Federation in the early to mid 80s

My own father was a national chess player at around that time. They probably know each other. ;)

Haha, what a coincedence. Yes, they must have known each other for sure. My dad used to go to all the Olympiads for a couple of decades.
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Re: General World Cup 2014 Thread

Postby tflags » Wed Dec 04, 2013 12:13 pm

El Kloppo: "there have been so many rule changes that Switzerland is now in Pot 1. That can otherwise only in alpine sports."

Hmmm.
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Re: General World Cup 2014 Thread

Postby MUTU » Wed Dec 04, 2013 12:17 pm

tflags wrote:El Kloppo: "there have been so many rule changes that Switzerland is now in Pot 1. That can otherwise only in alpine sports."

Hmmm.


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Re: General World Cup 2014 Thread

Postby DerKaiser » Wed Dec 04, 2013 2:11 pm

Italy in the group stage might be a good thing! ?
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Re: General World Cup 2014 Thread

Postby AdepT » Wed Dec 04, 2013 2:15 pm

DerKaiser wrote:Italy in the group stage might be a good thing! ?

If Germany win the game, it will great.
Lose it and all hell breaks lose that they are still not upto it and it's only the group stages.
So group stages or not losing against Italians is going to be disastrous.

But from a pre-game pressure perspective on the German team, I'd say group stages would be better.
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