Ok so I am again at work and don`t have anything better to do and it is really the only time I can get into writing about this
As some of the users were wondering about "future top clubs" I did a little research and will try to predict what the future holds.
I will be writing about Borussia Dortmund, Tottenham and Juventus
. I chose those clubs because I think they are on the rise in their Domestic Leagues and could be right at the top of the European Football in next few years.
I will compare those clubs with clubs in their own league and how can they get close to or overtake them in the near future.BORUSSIA DORTMUND
Although the club’s 2009 annual report boasted, “BVB is back”, it is still too early to say whether Borussia Dortmund have enough strength in depth to maintain their challenge for the Bundesliga. What we can declare with more confidence is that this team still has a long way to go to emulate the glory days of their legendary counterparts from the golden era of the mid-90s. But they are on their way up and we will be looking closely at their progress in the future.
They had their problems but it looks like they are getting on their feet and not looking back to those dark times.
The club’s difficulties first became apparent in 2002, when poor financial management resulted in an unmanageable debt load that meant the club had to sell its famous Westfalenstadion to a real estate trust. All the funds raised from their flotation on the German stock exchange in 2000 (the first and only listing of a German football club) had effectively been repaid.
Worse was to come in 2005 after the club spent heavily on expensive signings and high wages in the pursuit of further European glory.
Borussia gambled on competing regularly in the Champions League to fund their spending. Although they managed to avoid relegation, the club’s record losses and massive debts put them in a huge danger.
in 2006 the club took out a 15-year loan of €79 million and laying the foundations for the long-term stabilisation of the club. They used €57 million to buy back the remaining 51% of the shares in their stadium and reducing the high rental expenses and giving them more room to manoeuvre. The remaining €22 million was used to reduce and refinance existing debts.
Two years later they managed to repay some of the debt to the banks few years before the deadline with money received from their new sponsorship deal.
Look at their turnover over the last few years:
As we can see they did great after that dark season in 2005. They managed to keep the hold of their funds and were spending in their means.
You can also see that they are below us and 3 other Bundesliga clubs. But that is mostly because they were not competing in Champions League while others were there in recent years.
What is immediately apparent is the very low income from match day and television (with no Champions League boost), though the commercial revenue is surprisingly high – more than teams like Arsenal, Lyon, Juventus and Inter.
When you look at Borussia’s low TV revenue of €22 million in 2009, which is by far the lowest in the top 20, it gives you some idea of the financial challenges they still face. Clearly, this would be much higher if they reached the Champions League (Wolfsburg received €26 million just from CL last season)
All in all they are surely going UP and I believe they will be doing very well in the future.
From just looking at their performances on the pitch I can say that they will qualify for next years Champions League and that means huge boost to their finances.
I believe that they could receive at least €30 million from Champions League football given that they have huge stadium and could receive at least €3-4 million [because of highest prices for CL matches and no Season tickets] from 1 sold out CL home game. So that is at least €9 million just from 3 CL home games. And if they manage to qualify to knock out stages this figure could increase.
They would also receive at least €15 million from Champions League TV rights. Not to mention additional income from commercial deals.
And after few years there will also receive huge boost from Domestic TV Rights as the new deal will probably be at least 40-50% higher than the current one.
I believe that quite few Bundesliga top teams have bright future in front of them and could challenge to replace some European top guns like Roma, Milan, Valencia, Atletico Madrid.
Bundesliga clubs like Borussia, Wolfsburg, Hamburg, Schalke will probably overtake some of those clubs in the future. After Bundesliga receives 4 CL spots that means those clubs will fight with everything they have to qualify for Champions League as they know that money is waiting for them.
I see Borussia [and other top BL clubs] as future serious contenders in CL and with that also huge contenders to us for the Bundesliga title. That only means that Bundesliga will get stronger and stronger.TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR
After many years of disappointment, Tottenham Hotspur are coming back this season, threatening to break the stranglehold of the so-called Big Four and qualified for the Champions League.
Their Revenue for 2008/2009 season was €133 million
which is very similar to some Bundesliga clubs.
But healthy profits are being made: £18.4m in the 2009 annual accounts, £27.5m in 2008 and £29.7m in 2007.
Which is very uncommon for Premier League clubs although they did make a profit because of some players like Berbatov and Keane leaving them. But at the end of the day profit is a profit.
After those star players left them didn`t cry about it but they went out and bought some quality players like Modric, Dos Santos, Gomes, Bentley, Corluka, Pavlyuchenko, Defoe, Crouch, Kranjcar etc...
Their revenue could increase in the future but they will have to try harder.
Match day revenue is lower than the other teams with the exception of Liverpool. Tottenham only received £39.5m, which is about the same as Liverpool £42.5m, the other club with a desperate need for a larger stadium, but is less than half of the revenue generated by Manchester United £108.8m and Arsenal £100.1m. White Hart Lane’s capacity is only 36,000, compared to Old Trafford 76,000 and The Emirates 60,000. Of course a new stadium will cost a lot of money to construct, but in the long run it has to be worth it.
Another thing they can improve is their TV money. They have the same problem as Borussia, they were not in the Champions League and thus they did not benefited from money that it offers.
Just look at the difference: Spurs £44.8m compared to Manchester United £99.7m, Chelsea £79.1m, Arsenal £75.8m and Liverpool £74.6m. That’s an extra £30-40 million a year just from playing in Champions League [TV money, Gate receipts, award money].
There can be no doubt that the new stadium is vital to Tottenham’s ambitions, as it would provide a significant boost to match day revenues. They have more than 23.000 fans on the waiting list for season tickets so they really need a new stadium to stay close or get closer to Manchester United, Chelsea, Liverpool and Arsenal.
If they don`t risk to build a new stadium they surely wont be in top 4 for a long time and will probably roam just under that 4th place for years to come.
They have some top players in their squad and qualified for Champions League. Let's wait and see if they manage to finish in top 4 this season. If they manage to take advantage of Liverpool`s poor form and problems and invest in the new stadium which will give their finances a huge boost, than I can see them right next to the big guns in the not so distant future.JUVENTUS
Some of you are probably wondering why I chose Juventus. Well I believe that they are on the rise after last 4-5 years of "down".
Although Juventus only finished 7th in Serie A last season, there is no doubt that they have come a long way since the dark days of Calciopoli just few years ago.
All this time, Juventus have strived to build a business model based on self-sufficiency, so that “the future is not an uncertain one” at Juventus. They seem to get well with economic balance and are not just splashing money around like their rivals in Serie A.
Calciopoli was ruthless to them and you can see that. But although they were forced to play in Serie-B they managed to keep their financial books look good.
While looking at that balance sheet you can see they came back close to their 2005 revenue. If they stayed in Serie A and there was no Calciopoli they would be right at the top with us.
But that does not mean they wont be in the future.
Let's look at their Revenue:
Their reported revenue is €203 million
which is quite good and they are already past their Serie A rivals Inter, Milan and Roma.
And that is quite an achievement when you think of Calciopoli and what they have gone through.
Before relegation Juve were as high as 3rd in the Money League.
But the main difference between them and other top Italian clubs is that they are operating much better and their business model is much better. They are actually building something and thinking of future, not just present.
Juve’s match day revenue of just €17 million
is extremely low, so much so that it’s actually the lowest of any team in the top 20 clubs listed in the Money League, representing only 8% of the club’s total revenue. On the other hand, their television revenue of €132 million is huge – the third highest in the list, accounting for a 65% of total revenue.TV
Up to now Juventus have benefited from selling their TV rights individually to Sky/Mediaset, with a deal worth €112 million a season
and after paying visiting clubs around €12 million they still got around €100 million.
As from the 2010/11 season, this has been replaced by a return to a centralised collective deal, which Juventus have estimated will lead to a €7 million reduction in revenue (to €93 million) in the first season, but only €2 million (to €98 million) the following year. That is because of Serie-A`s distribution formula: 40% equal share; 30% based on past results (5% last season, 10% last 5 years, 15% historical results up to 5 years ago); and 30% based on fan base and city inhabitants.
We can see that they are not quite fair in sharing like Bundesliga and Premier League but that will still give more to the less known teams but a lot more to the top Italian teams.
So as they calculated top Italian teams will still receive similar [few millions less] amount from the new TV deal. So that is something Juventus does not have to be afraid of.Match day
Although the most popular club in Italy, Juventus have struggled to convert this support into meaningful match day revenue. This is an issue for all Italian clubs, but especially Juventus, even though they have managed to grow this revenue stream from the €13 million in the first season back in Serie A to €17 million last year
. This is just behind Roma’s €19 million, but is far below Milan (€33 million) and Inter (€28 million), who generate almost twice as much revenue at San Siro.
Not only do Juventus have the lowest average attendance of the top European clubs in the Money League at around 23,000, but this was only the 11th highest in Serie A last season, lower than clubs like Bologna and Palermo.
Of course, Juventus have been limited by the capacity of their ground, which is very low at 28,000, only underlining the importance of moving away from the Stadio Olimpico. To that end, they have begun construction of a new 41,000 capacity stadium.
Juventus will earn much more money from naming rights, premium seats, standard seats and facilities and events. The premium seats are particularly important, if you consider that Arsenal make 35% of their match day revenue from just 9,000 premium seats at the Emirates. Significantly, all of this income will go directly to the club, as they will no longer have to share it with Torino or the local council.
They already made positive announcements regarding the stadium with 1,100 premium seats already sold (about 35% of the total available for sale).
And they made a great deal with new stadium. Almost whole construction costs of the stadium are already covered with various deals.
Sportfive has acquired the naming rights for €75 million and additional €20 million sale of commercial land to Nordiconad, who will also pay the Turin council €9 million for infrastructure improvements and a 12-year loan for €60 million.
That is a great achievement and I can only congratulate them. They took the similar path as we and I must say it is totally different from other Italian big guns.
And by saying they are taking different path from other Italian top clubs I really mean that...and I can really see that here:
This leaves them in pole position among Italian clubs to meet the new challenge of UEFA’s Financial Fair Play Regulations, which will ultimately exclude from European competitions if those clubs that fail to live within their means.
Showings on the pitch will be crucial to the club’s future success, as will the new stadium. While the club’s “business project with a long-term vision” has left them in the strongest financial position of the major Italian clubs, they now need to match those heights on the pitch. I see them as only Italian team ready for the battle while others will probably get weaker year after year.