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Borussia Dortmund

Discussions on German clubs and football. Want to hear more about Borussia Dortmund, Schalke, Bayer Leverkusen and other Bundesliga teams? Find it all here.
 

Re: Borussia Dortmund

Postby FCBayernMunchen » Sat Dec 27, 2014 7:06 pm

Borusse wrote:Nice toaster. :P

It's what's on the inside that counts. ;)
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Re: Borussia Dortmund

Postby DerKaiser » Sun Dec 28, 2014 4:58 am

Statistics are like miniskirts . What they reveal is tantalizing, but what they hide is crucial.
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Re: Borussia Dortmund

Postby MUTU » Sun Dec 28, 2014 11:31 am

JJJ wrote:HOLY SHIT! :D :D :D

Merry Christmas, Borusse!

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Oh cool. You put the fresh ones inside the BVB system and after the work's been done on them and they rise to the top, you suddenly realise that they're wearing FCB. Anything to add, Borusse?
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Re: Borussia Dortmund

Postby ottackon » Sun Dec 28, 2014 7:44 pm

Rumours on the social medias report that Klopp will resign as head coach of Dortmund ...
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Re: Borussia Dortmund

Postby JANCKER » Mon Dec 29, 2014 3:16 am

Spoiler: show
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Neuer - Boateng, Martínez, Hummels - Kimmich, Thiago, Alaba - Bernardeschi, Müller, Coman - Lewandowski
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Re: Borussia Dortmund

Postby Jorge » Mon Dec 29, 2014 5:24 pm

The story in numbers
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Re: Borussia Dortmund

Postby theundead » Mon Dec 29, 2014 7:07 pm

I was just looking at the table. Even if they turn around their fortunes during the winter break, they will need a momentous effort to break into europe (CL).
BMG currently have 27 points. Double that and we get 54. To reach to 55 points, BvB need 40! more points. Only Bayern got 40 or more in the first half of the season. Wolfsburg managed 34.

And to get to a safe 60 points, they will need 45!

So to get to CL, BvB will not only need a considerable amount of points, they will also have to snatch those points from the CL teams.

Its looking very very improbable for BvB to get into CL. They might not even get Europa league as things stand.
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Re: Borussia Dortmund

Postby runaway » Mon Dec 29, 2014 11:13 pm

Even the initial statistical predictions on BVB were baffled. Here's an recent statistical analysis on BVB:
Lewandowski was always going to be a very difficult player to replace. Adrian Ramos has posted high average ExpG numbers per shot, but he hasn’t been able to spend long enough on the pitch to make any real impact. Dortmund’s other striker acquisition of summer 2014, Ciro Immobile, was not a direct “like for like” replacement for Lewandowski as his shot quality (ExpG) during his final two seasons (0.162) in Italy was in the 0.10 – 0.11 range.

We can fairly conclude that Lewandowski's departure and the brought in replacements are one of the main problems. Lewandowski not only contributes in offense but even in defense. He averaged 3.20 defensive actions only Mkhitaryan and Bender in their attacking press have higher numbers than him. Ramos though has 3.70, which is the highest number this season, but his limited minutes might have boosted this.

Everything on the shoulders of Aubameyang.
On average, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang is still taking the same type of shots that he took when Dortmund could rely on Lewandowski to have better chances; he hasn’t made the step up to be at the end of those better chances.

Interesting though that Lewandowski's average from BVB is still the same today.
Lewandowksi’s average ExpG value for this season as a Bayern Munich player is 0.157. There is no doubting that Bayern create better chances than any other team in Germany, but this again demonstrates that the types of shots a player will take can be predicted fairly confidently in advance. If only predicting how they would finish those chances were as easy…

Numbers show that BVB are not pressing as aggressively and effectively this season. Well, the amount of easy chances they conceded are testaments of it.
Most of the players are exerting less pressure on the opposition in high areas of the pitch this season; examples include Mkhitaryan decreasing from 4.27 defensive actions to 2.40 and Aubameyang down from 2.57 per90 to 2.15 during this season.

There’s definitely something in the water at the Signal Iduna Park that has diluted the high tempo, aggressive pressing system favoured by previous Klopp teams. While teams like Roger Schmidt’s Bayer Leverkusen and Hamburg have increased the intensity of their high press and Bayern Munich have managed to maintain their position as the gegen-pressing kings it looks as if Dortmund are unfortunately sliding in the other direction.

And then there's the GK woes.
Weidenfeller, who started the season as first choice conceded 18 goals compared to the 13.2 goals suggested by our after-shot ExpG model. Weidenfeller then fell out of favour and was replaced at the end of November by Langerak, but unfortunately for BVB, Langerak’s shot stopping figures are even worse than Weidenfeller’s as he has conceded 7 goals versus the 4.20 suggested by our model.

According to the ExpG model used, BVB has 1% chance of getting into Top 4.
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Beat the odds! O:)
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Re: Borussia Dortmund

Postby Borusse » Tue Dec 30, 2014 2:03 pm

We will win the CL and get to the next season's CL through there. :D
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Re: Borussia Dortmund

Postby krkla » Wed Dec 31, 2014 1:03 am

Borusse wrote:We will win the CL and get to the next season's CL through there. :D


Haha! Ignorance is bliss :D
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Re: Borussia Dortmund

Postby runaway » Wed Dec 31, 2014 10:14 am

Borusse wrote:We will win the CL and get to the next season's CL through there. :D

So BVB has 1% chance of winning CL? ;)

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Re: Borussia Dortmund

Postby Bomber_der_Nation » Wed Dec 31, 2014 3:46 pm

Were Dortmund to get relegated, they would probably break 100 records.
-Most expensive 2. Bundesliga team ever
-Lots of attendance related records
-Most senior international players on the team
-Probably also most players leaving a team after relegation
The possibilities for Dortmund are endless :-)
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Re: Borussia Dortmund

Postby FCBayernMunchen » Wed Dec 31, 2014 4:59 pm

They got jealous of Bayern breaking all those records and found a loophole. :P
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Re: Borussia Dortmund

Postby JJJ » Thu Jan 01, 2015 3:02 pm

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Kraft
Lahm, Hummels, Badstuber, Contento
Schweinsteiger, Kroos, Can
Schöpf, Müller, Alaba

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Re: Borussia Dortmund

Postby JJJ » Sun Jan 11, 2015 2:20 pm

Kraft
Lahm, Hummels, Badstuber, Contento
Schweinsteiger, Kroos, Can
Schöpf, Müller, Alaba

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