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[2018-04-11] Bayern Munich vs Sevilla

Discussions on the UEFA Champions League matches.
 

What is your prediction for this match?

Poll ended at Wed Apr 11, 2018 7:45 pm

Bayern Munich will win
5
100%
It will end in a draw
0
No votes
Sevilla FC will win
0
No votes
 
Total votes : 5

Re: [2018-04-11] Bayern Munich vs Sevilla

Postby #12 » Sat Apr 14, 2018 6:33 pm

FCB&Paulaner wrote:
#12 wrote:
FCB&Paulaner wrote:[quote="#12"]Only explanation I have is people love underdogs and hate Penaldo... Judging from a purely neutral and solely performance based assessment there’s no justification at all for such a claim...
As I said, even with 11v11 we had less possession, less opportunities, less shots, less duels won - how does that add up to "deserving to go through"?

We did have the better goalie though...

I know no one who said that - including (and actually to a vast majority!) Bayern fans...


Boy, you can read stats, everyone can. The fact is Bayern played 10 man vs 11 in two games. The defining moment was the 53rd minute in Madrid, when Bayern had the penalty and Real should have been reduced to 10 man, then your stats would tell you a different story. What happened next, though was a criminal event worthy of a thorough investigation.

On a side note stats in football mean bollocks, Chelsea had 0 shots on goal in 2012 and scored 1 goal, and went on to lift the trophy. They don't reward trophies for stats and I don't care what the stats say, it's about winning or losing. And 10 Bayern men lost against 12 men from Madrid. How do your stats translate that? Maybe that's why they had good possesion :lol:


You are obviously unable to read, so why waste away time to make arguments you won’t value anyway?

Because I don't have time to read bullshit and I just wanted to make a point :D[/quote]

Yeah you completely missed the point of the discussion though... So there’s only one person in here spitting out BS...

And also if it makes you feel better just keep fooling yourself... As you said, trophies matter, and we suck at getting the big ears, they don’t...
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Re: [2018-04-11] Bayern Munich vs Sevilla

Postby PunkCapitalist » Sat Apr 14, 2018 9:42 pm

FCB&Paulaner wrote:
#12 wrote:Only explanation I have is people love underdogs and hate Penaldo... Judging from a purely neutral and solely performance based assessment there’s no justification at all for such a claim...
As I said, even with 11v11 we had less possession, less opportunities, less shots, less duels won - how does that add up to "deserving to go through"?

We did have the better goalie though...

I know no one who said that - including (and actually to a vast majority!) Bayern fans...


Boy, you can read stats, everyone can. The fact is Bayern played 10 man vs 11 in two games. The defining moment was the 53rd minute in Madrid, when Bayern had the penalty and Real should have been reduced to 10 man, then your stats would tell you a different story. What happened next, though was a criminal event worthy of a thorough investigation.

On a side note stats in football mean bollocks, Chelsea had 0 shots on goal in 2012 and scored 1 goal, and went on to lift the trophy. They don't reward trophies for stats and I don't care what the stats say, it's about winning or losing. And 10 Bayern men lost against 12 men from Madrid. How do your stats translate that? Maybe that's why they had good possesion
You're the one who can't read stats. Extrapolation from stats is not about certainty, its about probability. If we had played the Madrid match 100 times while generating the underlying stats we generated, we would have lost 90 times (made up numbers, I haven't calculated it). Same with Chelsea, if that final had been played a 100 times, we would have won 90 times.

There is always the chance that the objectively worst side wins, but in the long run, probabilities accept themselves over luck. If we're going into counterfactual-land and say "what if Kassai hadn't been a cheat?", we must also wonder "What if we hadn't been so lucky?".

The result of our match against Madrid up until the point in which we were cheated was lucky. That means it did not reflect the actual playing quality (that is, the underlying stats).

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Re: [2018-04-11] Bayern Munich vs Sevilla

Postby FCB&Paulaner » Sun Apr 15, 2018 2:55 pm

On a side note stats in football mean bollocks, Chelsea had 0 shots on goal in 2012 and scored 1 goal, and went on to lift the trophy. They don't reward trophies for stats and I don't care what the stats say, it's about winning or losing. And 10 Bayern men lost against 12 men from Madrid. How do your stats translate that? Maybe that's why they had good possesion [/quote]You're the one who can't read stats. Extrapolation from stats is not about certainty, its about probability. If we had played the Madrid match 100 times while generating the underlying stats we generated, we would have lost 90 times (made up numbers, I haven't calculated it). Same with Chelsea, if that final had been played a 100 times, we would have won 90 times.

There is always the chance that the objectively worst side wins, but in the long run, probabilities accept themselves over luck. If we're going into counterfactual-land and say "what if Kassai hadn't been a cheat?", we must also wonder "What if we hadn't been so lucky?".

The result of our match against Madrid up until the point in which we were cheated was lucky. That means it did not reflect the actual playing quality (that is, the underlying stats).

Sent from my Moto G (5S) Plus using Tapatalk[/quote]
Well in football you don't get to play 100 times statistically correct, it doesn't mean anything. It is about here and now, nothing more, every game is different and there are many external factors, luck included and refereeing, so extrapolation here is useless measure. You are just interpreting one game. If they played again a week after, could be entirely different, etc. We are not talking here Real playing Getafe, it's Real vs Bayern where the margin for errors is slim, stats do not win you these games and they actually rarely reflect the deserved result for being statistically dominant. As a reference their encounter in 2014 in Madrid Bayern had 80% possession but could have lost by a large margin, were lucky to escape 1-0. If you watch the game, Real threatened more, but statistically you get a different idea. You are looking at the whole thing from the wrong perspective. On the other hand stats not always reflect what is going on in the field. For ex. a referee chooses not to book a certain defensive genius called Casemiro, and what you have is different results, the guy finds a very original way to win duels by fouling and not getting booked, so his team gets more possession, less threats, etc, while for the other side bookings, offsides are norm, so you get the point. Statistically you cannot derive anything from an encounter in CL, where the first match result matters and episodes decide the game. Each game will be just different and doesn't have to follow any trend, likewise you cannot derive any meaningful results from a single game.

And why is it so difficult for you people to accept that the best side on the day was robbed and deserved to advance, why do you have to interpret all this statistical bullshit, this isn't exact science, it's all about a round ball and anyone who indeed watched the game knows what I am talking about. Even sky experts I watched after the game said 'this game should be investigated' and this wasn't german SKY. This isn't exactly the kind of game to look at stats.
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[2018-04-11] Bayern Munich vs Sevilla

Postby #12 » Sun Apr 15, 2018 3:13 pm

Why is it so difficult FOR YOU to accept that we were greatly inferior?

Every idiot knowing nothing about math and on top of it a blind one can see that... We had 80% possession in 2014, but ONE shot on goal... We were worse in every ither aspect that matters... Duels, shots, opportunities, pass completion... Last year, we were not even better in one of those aspects...

Yeah, sometimes the team that leads statistics loses... Sometimes... I'll bet you, that is nit happening in the VAST majority of cases... So there’s probably a point in claiming they matter... What’s your argument?

Cause... What you spit out here is a lot of diversion and blabla, but what exactly do you have to back your RIDICULOUS claim? What did make us better? Cause all you could put forth was the ref - in a more than polemic way, ignoring the bonus WE got...

The one person unable to face reality and facts in here - is you!
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Re: [2018-04-11] Bayern Munich vs Sevilla

Postby PunkCapitalist » Sun Apr 15, 2018 5:04 pm

FCB&Paulaner wrote:On a side note stats in football mean bollocks, Chelsea had 0 shots on goal in 2012 and scored 1 goal, and went on to lift the trophy. They don't reward trophies for stats and I don't care what the stats say, it's about winning or losing. And 10 Bayern men lost against 12 men from Madrid. How do your stats translate that? Maybe that's why they had good possesion
You're the one who can't read stats. Extrapolation from stats is not about certainty, its about probability. If we had played the Madrid match 100 times while generating the underlying stats we generated, we would have lost 90 times (made up numbers, I haven't calculated it). Same with Chelsea, if that final had been played a 100 times, we would have won 90 times.

There is always the chance that the objectively worst side wins, but in the long run, probabilities accept themselves over luck. If we're going into counterfactual-land and say "what if Kassai hadn't been a cheat?", we must also wonder "What if we hadn't been so lucky?".

The result of our match against Madrid up until the point in which we were cheated was lucky. That means it did not reflect the actual playing quality (that is, the underlying stats).

Sent from my Moto G (5S) Plus using Tapatalk[/quote]
Well in football you don't get to play 100 times statistically correct, it doesn't mean anything. It is about here and now, nothing more, every game is different and there are many external factors, luck included and refereeing, so extrapolation here is useless measure. You are just interpreting one game. If they played again a week after, could be entirely different, etc. We are not talking here Real playing Getafe, it's Real vs Bayern where the margin for errors is slim, stats do not win you these games and they actually rarely reflect the deserved result for being statistically dominant. As a reference their encounter in 2014 in Madrid Bayern had 80% possession but could have lost by a large margin, were lucky to escape 1-0. If you watch the game, Real threatened more, but statistically you get a different idea. You are looking at the whole thing from the wrong perspective. On the other hand stats not always reflect what is going on in the field. For ex. a referee chooses not to book a certain defensive genius called Casemiro, and what you have is different results, the guy finds a very original way to win duels by fouling and not getting booked, so his team gets more possession, less threats, etc, while for the other side bookings, offsides are norm, so you get the point. Statistically you cannot derive anything from an encounter in CL, where the first match result matters and episodes decide the game. Each game will be just different and doesn't have to follow any trend, likewise you cannot derive any meaningful results from a single game.

And why is it so difficult for you people to accept that the best side on the day was robbed and deserved to advance, why do you have to interpret all this statistical bullshit, this isn't exact science, it's all about a round ball and anyone who indeed watched the game knows what I am talking about. Even sky experts I watched after the game said 'this game should be investigated' and this wasn't german SKY. This isn't exactly the kind of game to look at stats.[/quote]Because W-E W-E-R-E S-H-IT that night and the board took up on the Kassai excuse to do nothing about it. Our squad had declined severely. Ribery and Robben had to be let go and possibly new wingers brought in.

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Re: [2018-04-11] Bayern Munich vs Sevilla

Postby PunkCapitalist » Sun Apr 15, 2018 5:04 pm

FCB&Paulaner wrote:On a side note stats in football mean bollocks, Chelsea had 0 shots on goal in 2012 and scored 1 goal, and went on to lift the trophy. They don't reward trophies for stats and I don't care what the stats say, it's about winning or losing. And 10 Bayern men lost against 12 men from Madrid. How do your stats translate that? Maybe that's why they had good possesion
You're the one who can't read stats. Extrapolation from stats is not about certainty, its about probability. If we had played the Madrid match 100 times while generating the underlying stats we generated, we would have lost 90 times (made up numbers, I haven't calculated it). Same with Chelsea, if that final had been played a 100 times, we would have won 90 times.

There is always the chance that the objectively worst side wins, but in the long run, probabilities accept themselves over luck. If we're going into counterfactual-land and say "what if Kassai hadn't been a cheat?", we must also wonder "What if we hadn't been so lucky?".

The result of our match against Madrid up until the point in which we were cheated was lucky. That means it did not reflect the actual playing quality (that is, the underlying stats).

Sent from my Moto G (5S) Plus using Tapatalk[/quote]
Well in football you don't get to play 100 times statistically correct, it doesn't mean anything. It is about here and now, nothing more, every game is different and there are many external factors, luck included and refereeing, so extrapolation here is useless measure. You are just interpreting one game. If they played again a week after, could be entirely different, etc. We are not talking here Real playing Getafe, it's Real vs Bayern where the margin for errors is slim, stats do not win you these games and they actually rarely reflect the deserved result for being statistically dominant. As a reference their encounter in 2014 in Madrid Bayern had 80% possession but could have lost by a large margin, were lucky to escape 1-0. If you watch the game, Real threatened more, but statistically you get a different idea. You are looking at the whole thing from the wrong perspective. On the other hand stats not always reflect what is going on in the field. For ex. a referee chooses not to book a certain defensive genius called Casemiro, and what you have is different results, the guy finds a very original way to win duels by fouling and not getting booked, so his team gets more possession, less threats, etc, while for the other side bookings, offsides are norm, so you get the point. Statistically you cannot derive anything from an encounter in CL, where the first match result matters and episodes decide the game. Each game will be just different and doesn't have to follow any trend, likewise you cannot derive any meaningful results from a single game.

And why is it so difficult for you people to accept that the best side on the day was robbed and deserved to advance, why do you have to interpret all this statistical bullshit, this isn't exact science, it's all about a round ball and anyone who indeed watched the game knows what I am talking about. Even sky experts I watched after the game said 'this game should be investigated' and this wasn't german SKY. This isn't exactly the kind of game to look at stats.[/quote]Because W-E W-E-R-E S-H-IT that night and the board took up on the Kassai excuse to do nothing about it. Our squad had declined severely. Ribery and Robben had to be let go and possibly new wingers brought in.

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Re: [2018-04-11] Bayern Munich vs Sevilla

Postby FCB&Paulaner » Sun Apr 15, 2018 9:50 pm

PunkCapitalist wrote:
FCB&Paulaner wrote:On a side note stats in football mean bollocks, Chelsea had 0 shots on goal in 2012 and scored 1 goal, and went on to lift the trophy. They don't reward trophies for stats and I don't care what the stats say, it's about winning or losing. And 10 Bayern men lost against 12 men from Madrid. How do your stats translate that? Maybe that's why they had good possesion
You're the one who can't read stats. Extrapolation from stats is not about certainty, its about probability. If we had played the Madrid match 100 times while generating the underlying stats we generated, we would have lost 90 times (made up numbers, I haven't calculated it). Same with Chelsea, if that final had been played a 100 times, we would have won 90 times.

There is always the chance that the objectively worst side wins, but in the long run, probabilities accept themselves over luck. If we're going into counterfactual-land and say "what if Kassai hadn't been a cheat?", we must also wonder "What if we hadn't been so lucky?".

The result of our match against Madrid up until the point in which we were cheated was lucky. That means it did not reflect the actual playing quality (that is, the underlying stats).

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Well in football you don't get to play 100 times statistically correct, it doesn't mean anything. It is about here and now, nothing more, every game is different and there are many external factors, luck included and refereeing, so extrapolation here is useless measure. You are just interpreting one game. If they played again a week after, could be entirely different, etc. We are not talking here Real playing Getafe, it's Real vs Bayern where the margin for errors is slim, stats do not win you these games and they actually rarely reflect the deserved result for being statistically dominant. As a reference their encounter in 2014 in Madrid Bayern had 80% possession but could have lost by a large margin, were lucky to escape 1-0. If you watch the game, Real threatened more, but statistically you get a different idea. You are looking at the whole thing from the wrong perspective. On the other hand stats not always reflect what is going on in the field. For ex. a referee chooses not to book a certain defensive genius called Casemiro, and what you have is different results, the guy finds a very original way to win duels by fouling and not getting booked, so his team gets more possession, less threats, etc, while for the other side bookings, offsides are norm, so you get the point. Statistically you cannot derive anything from an encounter in CL, where the first match result matters and episodes decide the game. Each game will be just different and doesn't have to follow any trend, likewise you cannot derive any meaningful results from a single game.

And why is it so difficult for you people to accept that the best side on the day was robbed and deserved to advance, why do you have to interpret all this statistical bullshit, this isn't exact science, it's all about a round ball and anyone who indeed watched the game knows what I am talking about. Even sky experts I watched after the game said 'this game should be investigated' and this wasn't german SKY. This isn't exactly the kind of game to look at stats.[/quote]Because W-E W-E-R-E S-H-IT that night and the board took up on the Kassai excuse to do nothing about it. Our squad had declined severely. Ribery and Robben had to be let go and possibly new wingers brought in.

Sent from my Moto G (5S) Plus using Tapatalk[/quote]
I am not saying we were super, I am saying we were robbed as we deserved to go through. Real did nothing special either. The rest is not relevant, as I also think we didn't do any real shopping in the summer, and yes our squad isn't better, and yes Robbery should retire.

Oh, for the PHDs in statistics, analyse this:
A humiliating defeat but looking at the stats shouldn't have been like that. 19 shots no goal, is there a conversion rate, like a sure one? F.ex, if you play that game 100 times will Bayern have scored once? :) how does extrapolation works in this case?

http://www.bbc.com/sport/football/27193338

69% possession, 19 to 13 shots, 4 to 5 shots on target, 9 to 3 corners. Nice stats but yet lost 4-0, 3 goals conceded from set pieces and they played very poorly, but still for someone looking at the stats alone, should have been different.
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Re: [2018-04-11] Bayern Munich vs Sevilla

Postby #12 » Sun Apr 15, 2018 10:00 pm

Once again no single argument supporting the weird claim "we deserved to go through", again just evading and pointing at single games... You DO know I can find 4000 of those that show a completely different result... And yes, I think in that game we could’ve done better had we not defended like amateurs in the first 10 minutes and the first two set pieces...
plus, we were going into that match with a big disadvantage...
They deserved to go through because they were better in both games - last year, it was the same thing...
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Re: [2018-04-11] Bayern Munich vs Sevilla

Postby tflags » Sun Apr 15, 2018 10:18 pm

Guys, seriously, I'm not taking this for 9 more days. Get real.
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Re: [2018-04-11] Bayern Munich vs Sevilla

Postby MUTU » Sun Apr 15, 2018 10:24 pm

tflags wrote:Guys, seriously, I'm not taking this for 9 more days. Get real.
Pun intended?
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Re: [2018-04-11] Bayern Munich vs Sevilla

Postby PunkCapitalist » Sun Apr 15, 2018 10:38 pm

tflags wrote:Guys, seriously, I'm not taking this for 9 more days. Get real.
Maybe we should create a "Did Bayern really deserve to win against Real in the 2016-2017 semifinals?" threat, and discuss to our hearts' content

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Re: [2018-04-11] Bayern Munich vs Sevilla

Postby FCB&Paulaner » Sun Apr 15, 2018 10:56 pm

PunkCapitalist wrote:
tflags wrote:Guys, seriously, I'm not taking this for 9 more days. Get real.
Maybe we should create a "Did Bayern really deserve to win against Real in the 2016-2017 semifinals?" threat, and discuss to our hearts' content

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I suggest we run a 'call for papers', "did bayern deserve to to win", backed by a thorough empirical analysis. 8)
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Re: [2018-04-11] Bayern Munich vs Sevilla

Postby tflags » Sun Apr 15, 2018 11:39 pm

MUTU wrote:
tflags wrote:Guys, seriously, I'm not taking this for 9 more days. Get real.
Pun intended?


:lol: :lol:

Listen, guys, last year's game could have gone either way. Trust me, MUTU wasn't the only one there. But it was really painful to watch and even more to remember it. Some of us took great pains to be there in person to support the team and we had to come back with our heads down.

If you think we deserved to go through, good, if you don't think so, well, too bad. I personally regret UEFA's stupid rule not to use VAR. Something tells me two goals and a red card would have been disallowed.
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