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[2016-05-03] Bayern Munich vs Atlético

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What is your prediction for this match?

Poll ended at Tue May 03, 2016 7:45 pm

Bayern will go through to the final after 90 minutes
28
55%
Bayern will go through to the final after extra time
8
16%
Bayern will go through to the final on penalties
2
4%
Atlético will go through to the final on penalties
0
No votes
Atlético will go through to the final after extra time
0
No votes
Atlético will go through to the final after 90 minutes
13
25%
 
Total votes : 51

Re: [2016-05-03] Bayern Munich vs Atlético

Postby BayernSupporter » Thu May 05, 2016 3:45 pm

Talking about getting lucky Atletico, they should have already gone down against PSV. Lets hope Cristiano will be there in the finals :)
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Re: [2016-05-03] Bayern Munich vs Atlético

Postby quaazi » Thu May 05, 2016 4:03 pm

CaptainLahm21 wrote:It was guardiolas last chance and theres no doubt he gave it his all and the team did for him as well some f the football played under him has been sublime i will remember him fondly but it still feels we could have been better its mainly the 1 win in 9 away knockout champions league games that is the let down. Ancelotti does have big shoes to fill but im confident he will and he will bring the cl success that has been missing the last few years.

You hit the nail on the head here. It's so difficult to explain - there have been many studies linking home games with increased chances of winning, but they have merely shown the correlation, not the causation. Any argument that would anecdotally spring to one's mind seems absurd under the spotlight - the long trips don't seem to explain it when you realize that some teams have poor away records against their hometown rivals; the argument for the twelfth man sounds like a lot of conjecture when contrasted with the occasional team with a specifically poor home record (I am tempted to think that the home crowd is rather a reflection of the teams own self-belief rather than the other way around); the idea of favourable pitch conditions (long grass, wet) seems silly in todays world of hyper-regulated, technocratically versatile football; the question of familiarity also doesn't really hold up when one realizes that these are professionals who make away trips dozens of times a season and many hundreds of times a career. I don't know, I guess Pep always hits his head on the way out of the team bus or something if one's inclined to believe that it's all his fault, but even then someone in the club would put some padding there...?

But at the end of the day, we're stuck with a 100% percent home record over the last two years in Europe. It is truly inexplicable, and that, if any, come to mind as Pep's great oversight and/or Achilles' heel, especially when compared to his previous history. It's also probably the most intriguing facet of Bayern's play in this Pep epoch, and I'd love to learn about it in the future.
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Re: [2016-05-03] Bayern Munich vs Atlético

Postby PunkCapitalist » Thu May 05, 2016 4:08 pm

quaazi wrote:
PunkCapitalist wrote: The same coward attitude he did in other important CL matches before to catastrophic effect. It's clear that players were instructed not to press as hard, and not to attack so much, but instead keep patient control over MF. Formation reflected this and also the FBs role reflected this.


:shock: :shock:

Y'know, sometimes I think there is credence to Balague's argument about "small people and small minds". I'm supposed to be on a football sabbatical, so I'm not going to bring up the most obviously brave (or foolhardy if you prefer) approach to a CL semi final in my time that happened a mere year ago. But I'd love it if you went to your room without supper and thought about it a bit.

.!.

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Re: [2016-05-03] Bayern Munich vs Atlético

Postby JANCKER » Thu May 05, 2016 4:14 pm

Home or away little mattered to Jupp in 2013, that team and tactics gave me confidence like never before, I was sure that we were going all the way... we crushed everyone... BVB was his weakest point. Someone's tactics can't produce an away goal to save his life, let alone win... He went out this year exactly like against Inter in 2010...
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Re: [2016-05-03] Bayern Munich vs Atlético

Postby CaptainLahm21 » Thu May 05, 2016 5:20 pm

quaazi wrote:
CaptainLahm21 wrote:It was guardiolas last chance and theres no doubt he gave it his all and the team did for him as well some f the football played under him has been sublime i will remember him fondly but it still feels we could have been better its mainly the 1 win in 9 away knockout champions league games that is the let down. Ancelotti does have big shoes to fill but im confident he will and he will bring the cl success that has been missing the last few years.

You hit the nail on the head here. It's so difficult to explain - there have been many studies linking home games with increased chances of winning, but they have merely shown the correlation, not the causation. Any argument that would anecdotally spring to one's mind seems absurd under the spotlight - the long trips don't seem to explain it when you realize that some teams have poor away records against their hometown rivals; the argument for the twelfth man sounds like a lot of conjecture when contrasted with the occasional team with a specifically poor home record (I am tempted to think that the home crowd is rather a reflection of the teams own self-belief rather than the other way around); the idea of favourable pitch conditions (long grass, wet) seems silly in todays world of hyper-regulated, technocratically versatile football; the question of familiarity also doesn't really hold up when one realizes that these are professionals who make away trips dozens of times a season and many hundreds of times a career. I don't know, I guess Pep always hits his head on the way out of the team bus or something if one's inclined to believe that it's all his fault, but even then someone in the club would put some padding there...?

But at the end of the day, we're stuck with a 100% percent home record over the last two years in Europe. It is truly inexplicable, and that, if any, come to mind as Pep's great oversight and/or Achilles' heel, especially when compared to his previous history. It's also probably the most intriguing facet of Bayern's play in this Pep epoch, and I'd love to learn about it in the future.


I agree the blame cant purely go down to pep but i have no idea why they have been so poor games away in europe. Against man u (Moyes's) shakhtar porto and benfica not to disrespect them but are games we should have been winning. Juve from 2-0 up was an almost perfect performance so its not like they cant perform but over 90 mins it didnt happen the one win against arsenal didnt look good until they went down to 10 men.
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Re: [2016-05-03] Bayern Munich vs Atlético

Postby Firefox1234 » Thu May 05, 2016 6:20 pm

If Jupp stayed a couple more seasons his name would be tarnished in this forum, Pep in my opinion was just an unlucky fall guy....
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Re: [2016-05-03] Bayern Munich vs Atlético

Postby Jorge » Thu May 05, 2016 7:16 pm

quaazi wrote: But at the end of the day, we're stuck with a 100% percent home record over the last two years in Europe.


True statement today but it would have been completely different only a week ago before the 2nd anniversary of the most embarrassing defeat that Bayern suffered at home in the history of the club.

2 years and 6 days ago our Bayern team (which contained a solid core of players than only 3 months later were going to win the World Cup and than less than a year before had owned Germany and Europe) managed by Guardiola was resoundingly trashed by a Real Madrid side that had only won a single game on German soil in 60 years of European Football, and had never won in Munich.

I am asking myself in 2016 how is Pep Guardiola going to be seen 40 or 50 years from now? How many in this forum remember that Dettmar Cramer gave us two European titles? Pep gave BL titles each season but since we have so many BL tiles (25) and we will keep adding, will fans in 2065 remember a coach that gave us 3 European Semifinals?
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Re: [2016-05-03] Bayern Munich vs Atlético

Postby Jorge » Thu May 05, 2016 7:24 pm

PunkCapitalist wrote:
Jorge you should post more often. Whenever you come around you're always very insightful.

Seeing how well you know your history, I would love to read your thought on what Ancelotti will do with us.

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Thanks. Very busy at work most of the time.

Ancelotti is definitely more pragmatic and less philosophical than Pep but managing Bayern presents many challenges that go beyond handling the team and planning games. To Pep's credit he held strong against his many critics and survived 3 difficult years. Maybe outside Germany this is not seen in its true dimension but the German press was never on his side.

One thing for sure: Ancelotti will not be as divisive as Guardiola.
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Re: [2016-05-03] Bayern Munich vs Atlético

Postby #12 » Thu May 05, 2016 7:35 pm

Firefox1234 wrote:If Jupp stayed a couple more seasons his name would be tarnished in this forum, Pep in my opinion was just an unlucky fall guy....


"Unlucky" is not the word, I'm sorry... He had more luck than any Bayern coach before him... He had ONE game where he deserved another goal... That was Tuesday... Thing is: he brought the need for that goal upon himself with that horrid Atlético away game... On the other side we have a ManUre unable to defend a lead and then a 1-1 for 30/20 minutes in Munich, a Porto unable to defend a two goal lead for more than 25 minutes, and a Juve whose coach decided it'd be cooler not to win this thing and better sub Khedira and Morata out and refrain from crossing the centerline ever again... ;)
So it's not like he had no luck... No club has lost more finals than us, and none so many dramatic ones... Ottmar was unlucky to not win the treble his first year... Van Gaal'S team was not good enough... But Jupp 2012 had all the bad luck in the world... Guardiola is praised for his three semis... Jupp made it to three finals... In three participations... With TWO different teams... And won it twice... That is 66 **** percent of all of his tournament participations... I think that's pretty **** sweet...
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Re: [2016-05-03] Bayern Munich vs Atlético

Postby #12 » Thu May 05, 2016 7:38 pm

Jorge wrote:One thing for sure: Ancelotti will not be as divisive as Guardiola.


Of course not... I think if he's successful here and the club would flirt with him as hard as they did with Guardiola, there's no way he'd leave... I think he's a coach that fits Munich better... We're a unique club that the Catalan never really understood... Ancelotti is more of a romantic IMHO... He'll cherish the **** awesomeness that is Bayern **** Munich... OK... Enough with the cursing... :P
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Re: [2016-05-03] Bayern Munich vs Atlético

Postby dstroe » Thu May 05, 2016 7:39 pm

Firefox1234 wrote:If Jupp stayed a couple more seasons his name would be tarnished in this forum, Pep in my opinion was just an unlucky fall guy....


I agree. Many of the players that are still in our squad were in their absolute peak in 2012-2013. As much as I wanted to deny it for a long time, Basti who was so important to our midfield for many years began declining very quickly due to injuries when Pep took over. Ribery and Robben started sustaining more and more injuries and our players just didn't have the same level of motivation the first year Pep took over. The player who dropped off very quickly due to both tactics and general decline in level of play is Dante who was a rock for us in the treble winning seasons. Ribery and Robben started sustaining more and more injuries and our players just didn't have the same level of motivation the first year Pep took over.Its one of the reason its almost impossible to repeat in the CL. Its hard to have the same level of motivation two years in a row especially after winning pretty much every trophy there is to win. And the team that wins the CL has a lot more games to play due to super club, club world cup e.t.c. It adds up and the fatigue at the end of the season really shows. The tactics that we employed against Real Madrid were a big factor but we were certainly missing the killer edge. Last year no manager in the world could have been Barcelona who were playing out of this world and we had injuries to our most important players. There was just no way. This year we were just unlucky and most of our forwards just lost form at the worst possible time. I believe we would have gone through if we had Boateng back just one week earlier so that he could have played the first leg. IMO theres no way we concede that goal if Alaba is at lb and Boateng is at CB on that side. No way. I think to a very large degree we've been spoiled by our own success. To go to the CL final 3 times in four years is a remarkable achievement and its unfair our team to do that for an entire decade. We've been to the CL semis just as many times in 8 years as Man Utd has been in 35 years. People are welcome to think what they want of Pep but I think he has done a very good job of reshaping the squad from when Jupp turned it over to him. I think it was PunkCapitalist who said that he has taken Alaba and Boateng to another level and I completely agree. They were already great players under Jupp but my goodness they are the most complete players at their positions and it isn't even close imo. Pep has attracted players that we might not have otherwise gotten and as a result our squad is absolutely loaded. He has gotten an unfair amount of criticism simply for not making the CL final or winning it in his three years with us. If Ancelotti wins the CL in his first season here, Pep's work will have a lot to do with it. The biggest difference I have seen in the squad between the first year and this year is our transition game. When we are playing well we are much better at winning the ball back with pressing and when we get countered we have a lot more people dropping back quickly to deal with it. Players are seldom left completely isolated when defending counter attacks. Ancelotti will improve certain aspects of our game even further while I think even more work will be done to rebuild our squad and set it up for the future. One position I am really concerned about is rightback, it is going to be very difficult to get someone who can replicate the level of play lahm has given us in the last decade. Obviously this is purely conjecture but I am fairly certain we would not have won the CL in these three years with any other manager. If we played the same system some team would have figured out how to beat us and like I said our players didn't have the same motivation and some of our most important players had already begun declining heavily by Pep's second season. I think we will sign a few more players this summer and incorporate some of Ancelotti's ideas and we will win the CL next year. After the way we went out this year the players seemed much more devestated than other years because of how close we were. I think that will serve us extra motivation and we will play like a pack of rabid wolves next year similar to how we played in 2012-2013 and we will annihilate every team that stand in the path. We will be confident, motivated and we will play with passion and fire!
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Re: [2016-05-03] Bayern Munich vs Atlético

Postby Lukas » Thu May 05, 2016 7:41 pm

#12 wrote:
Jorge wrote:One thing for sure: Ancelotti will not be as divisive as Guardiola.


Of course not... I think if he's successful here and the club would flirt with him as hard as they did with Guardiola, there's no way he'd leave... I think he's a coach that fits Munich better... We're a unique club that the Catalan never really understood... Ancelotti is more of a romantic IMHO... He'll cherish the **** awesomeness that is Bayern **** Munich... OK... Enough with the cursing... :P


Completely agree. Can't wait for him to start
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[2016-05-03] Bayern Munich vs Atlético

Postby Firefox1234 » Thu May 05, 2016 7:42 pm

#12 wrote:
Firefox1234 wrote:If Jupp stayed a couple more seasons his name would be tarnished in this forum, Pep in my opinion was just an unlucky fall guy....


"Unlucky" is not the word, I'm sorry... He had more luck than any Bayern coach before him... He had ONE game where he deserved another goal... That was Tuesday... Thing is: he brought the need for that goal upon himself with that horrid Atlético away game... On the other side we have a ManUre unable to defend a lead and then a 1-1 for 30/20 minutes in Munich, a Porto unable to defend a two goal lead for more than 25 minutes, and a Juve whose coach decided it'd be cooler not to win this thing and better sub Khedira and Morata out and refrain from crossing the centerline ever again... ;)
So it's not like he had no luck... No club has lost more finals than us, and none so many dramatic ones... Ottmar was unlucky to not win the treble his first year... Van Gaal'S team was not good enough... But Jupp 2012 had all the bad luck in the world... Guardiola is praised for his three semis... Jupp made it to three finals... In three participations... With TWO different teams... And won it twice... That is 66 **** percent of all of his tournament participations... I think that's pretty **** sweet...


I would prefer to strictly keep it UCL so Jupp has two finals and one win and in my opinion his sample size is still two small to judge if you want to compare his tenure at Bayern to Pep. There is no guarantee Jupp's Bayern win the UCL anymore than Pep's in my opinion. They're too many quality squads in the last 4 to ever guarantee the UCL title cause even the smallest margins lead to victory or a loss. Both had great squads to compete and did so to the best of their capabilities. Also Juve have lost the most UCL finals than any other club.
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Re: [2016-05-03] Bayern Munich vs Atlético

Postby #12 » Thu May 05, 2016 7:46 pm

Firefox1234 wrote:I would prefer to strictly keep it UCL so Jupp has two finals and one win and in my opinion his sample size is still two small to judge if you want to compare his tenure at Bayern to Pep. There is no guarantee Jupp's Bayern win the UCL anymore than Pep's in my opinion. Both had great squads to compete and did so to the best of their capabilities. Also Juve have lost the most UCL finals than any other club.


I don't get that... How is two seasons so incomparable to three? o.O

And I didn't talk about anything else but the UCL, did I?

Of course there's no guarantee... There never is... Would've expected the same of Jupp though... And he's not called best coach in the world... Will expect the same of Carlo as well... He's not called the best either... BAyern should able to make a final (and win it :P ) in three years with this squad...

And I think we're on par with Juve on lost finals...
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Re: [2016-05-03] Bayern Munich vs Atlético

Postby JANCKER » Thu May 05, 2016 7:50 pm

Don't use Jupp's name in vain... we don't know what would've happened if he stayed...
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