FC Bayern Forum

[#12]

Even we had assistance in 2013...
I‘m not denying they have had games with doubtful decisions, but not much more so than others IMHO... I can remember the game, just not the yellow... I think they'd habe conceded a fourth at least being down a man... IF that penalty would’ve even gone in... Maybe they won by a goal too much... But basically solely attributing this to bad refereeing doesn’t do it justice IMHO...

[MUTU]

For once I have to agree with #12. Even Neymar simulated while on a yellow. The referee was simply poor but definitely didn't favour one team over another.

[aterford]

Even we had assistance in 2013...
I‘m not denying they have had games with doubtful decisions, but not much more so than others IMHO... I can remember the game, just not the yellow... I think they'd habe conceded a fourth at least being down a man... IF that penalty would’ve even gone in... Maybe they won by a goal too much... But basically solely attributing this to bad refereeing doesn’t do it justice IMHO...

you're right, it's not solely due to bad refereeing.
it's also in large part due to the fact that Emery got just about every single decision wrong (though, to his credit, he was smart enough to play that Mbappe kid, bold move on his part). Poor starting XI and worse substitutions.
Taking off Cavani for Meunier, moving Alves to midfield....*that* is when the game truly opened up. PSG were clearly the better team in the first half and for most of the second half. Zidane played to win the game and Emery sat there sucking his thumb.
Even taking into account the penalty the teams were neck and neck in xG (and you'll notice a big spike in xG in Madrid's favor once that substitution was made)

[America USA]

For once I have to agree with #12. Even Neymar simulated while on a yellow. The referee was simply poor but definitely didn't favour one team over another.

I don’t know but I think RM players got away with a lot more fouling and diving than PSG players. Yes RM were the better team and maybe deserved a win but once again the vital decision (Ramos handball) went in the Spanish team’s favour.

[PowerHouse]

ugh i hate HATE real madrid. ****! why do they never lose big games

[MUTU]

For once I have to agree with #12. Even Neymar simulated while on a yellow. The referee was simply poor but definitely didn't favour one team over another.

I don’t know but I think RM players got away with a lot more fouling and diving than PSG players. Yes RM were the better team and maybe deserved a win but once again the vital decision (Ramos handball) went in the Spanish team’s favour.

If the ref had awarded the Ramos handball it would have been a soft penalty IMO. The Italian commentators also agreed with the ref that it was no penalty.

[America USA]

^ But Wasn’t the Kroos/Giovani penalty very soft too?

Btw Commentary shouldn’t be taken as gospel, the commentator on my Fox app called both of those incidents clear penalties.

[Manchu]

Honestly, I'm not very surprised by this result. Remember that we managed to beat PSG 3-1 while starting 5 second choice players and not starting Neuer, Muller, Boateng Thiago, Vidal, Martinez, or Robben, and we only lost against them the first time because Ancelotti's shitty tactics(and even then, we easily could have won if we had and had started Wagner instead having Lewandowski fight alone against two centerbacks for crosses). Real Madrid winning 3-1 when starting all their best players is hardly shocking even if they have hardly played the best lately.

In other words:

Can't see tweet? Click here!
(and even the odds at a natural field were heavily to Real Madrid's advantage based on player quality).

[America USA]

^ Hey stat guy. What chance does PSG have at home to overturn this defeat and put Real Madrid out?

[aterford]

For once I have to agree with #12. Even Neymar simulated while on a yellow. The referee was simply poor but definitely didn't favour one team over another.

I think it's being remarkably charitable to suggest that the things that were being called for fouls against PSG were called equally for fouls against Madrid. Yes Neymar dove but it was plain as day that both teams were being held to two different standards. Every slight contact was an immediate whistle for Madrid...while PSG could hardly buy a foul. Look at fouls called Rabiot and Lo Celso. Then compare that with the non-call on Ronaldo vs Kimpembe to start the counter attack which leads to a Madrid goal. All three very soft and virtually no contact - but looked like a hard foul... yellow card for Rabiot and Lo Celso, not a whistle or even a second's thought from the referee when it's going the other way.

[Manchu]

^ Hey stat guy. What chance does PSG have at home to overturn this defeat and put Real Madrid out?

I have no idea. I don't do the stats, I merely follow them, and this type statistic(prediction of game odds based on starting lineups) doesn't work until the lineups are announced, and lineup decisions can big effects on team quality and hence odds. For example, starting Mbappe(who, for all his talent, is only 19) instead of Di Maria, starting Celso instead of Draxler, starting Areola instead of Trapp, and starting Kimpembe instead of Silva are all decisions which hurt PSG, while on the contrary Zidane went with more or less his best starting lineup.

Moreover, predicting Champions League knockout odds is made particularly difficult by the away goals rule.

However, with all of that being said, the probability of Real Madrid progressing is obviously pretty high. PSG need either score 2 more goals than Real Madrid while conceding 0, or score at least 3 more. If Emery chooses the absolute optimal lineup, he can maybe put on a team which is about equal in player quality to Real Madrid's lineup, and, assuming equal player strength, home field advantage is worth about 0.75 goals. Thus, on average PSG would score about 0.75 goals more than the opposition, making it fairly unlikely that they will progress. Of course, injuries could screw up all the assumptions I made here pretty badly to the detriment of one or both teams.*

538, which uses a different method of prediction than goalimpact(focused on team strength instead of player strength) gives Real Madrid a 75% chance of progressing, and I think the method it uses probably overvalues Ligue 1 and hence PSG(although not as much as it overvalues Italian teams). Thus, I would give Real Madrid about an 80% chance of progressing, and that could rise to as much as 85% if Emery screws up the lineup badly again, or as low as 70% if Zidane screws up the lineup.

*I'm completely neglecting coaching quality here, but since neither Zidane nor Emery seem to be system coaches or tactical geniuses, that's probably a fair assumption to make, even if lack coaching quality would probably get either team screwed over if it went up against Man. City, Barcelona, Liverpool, or Bayern.

[America USA]

^ ****! That means Real will make it through to the QF

3-1 Madrid.

Helo

Holy shit, that was some prediction!

No wonder you’re a two time prediction game winner! Well done

[#12]

ugh i hate HATE real madrid. ****! why do they never lose big games

They did quite often... Then we started hiring pretentious coaches...

Even we had assistance in 2013...
I‘m not denying they have had games with doubtful decisions, but not much more so than others IMHO... I can remember the game, just not the yellow... I think they'd habe conceded a fourth at least being down a man... IF that penalty would’ve even gone in... Maybe they won by a goal too much... But basically solely attributing this to bad refereeing doesn’t do it justice IMHO...

you're right, it's not solely due to bad refereeing.
it's also in large part due to the fact that Emery got just about every single decision wrong (though, to his credit, he was smart enough to play that Mbappe kid, bold move on his part). Poor starting XI and worse substitutions.
Taking off Cavani for Meunier, moving Alves to midfield....*that* is when the game truly opened up. PSG were clearly the better team in the first half and for most of the second half. Zidane played to win the game and Emery sat there sucking his thumb.
Even taking into account the penalty the teams were neck and neck in xG (and you'll notice a big spike in xG in Madrid's favor once that substitution was made)

I think the first half was a RM one... PSG basically scored their first real attack while Ronaldo wasted that perfect assist by Marcelo...
But I agree with the rest... Emery lost the game especially for taking Cavani off... But that’s not on the ref

For once I have to agree with #12. Even Neymar simulated while on a yellow. The referee was simply poor but definitely didn't favour one team over another.

For once?

[FCB12Forever]

I have no idea. I don't do the stats, I merely follow them, and this type statistic(prediction of game odds based on starting lineups) doesn't work until the lineups are announced, and lineup decisions can big effects on team quality and hence odds. For example, starting Mbappe(who, for all his talent, is only 19) instead of Di Maria, starting Celso instead of Draxler, starting Areola instead of Trapp, and starting Kimpembe instead of Silva are all decisions which hurt PSG, while on the contrary Zidane went with more or less his best starting lineup.

FYI, and for everyone's information,
PSG win: 52% draw 21% Real win 27%.
and Bayern vs Besiktas:
Bayern win 83%, draw 12%, Besiktas win 4%

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/so ... ns-league/

[America USA]

Just checked out the highlights again and my God is Emery an idiot! His starting eleven was stupid. Giovani should never have started such a huge game and any sensible manager would have taken him off after the first half. If I was PSG manager I would have have switched to a 4231 with Di Maria coming on for Lo celso and playing as the CAM behind Cavani with Veratti and Raboit as the midfielders. Thiago silva for Kimpembe and with instructions to the CBs to stay back as much as possible so as not to get outnumbered on the break.

Instead that fool puts Dani Alves in midfield against Kroos, Modric and Isco. After that Cavani sub and when Alves was put in Right-mid position, Real dominated the midfield.

Terrible job by Emery. No way he remains manager if (when?) Madrid eliminates PSG.