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[2017-04-04] Hoffenheim vs Bayern Munich

Discussions on the German Bundesliga matches.
 

What is your prediction for this match?

Poll ended at Tue Apr 04, 2017 7:00 pm

TSG 1899 Hoffenheim will win
1
17%
It will end in a draw
1
17%
Bayern Munich will win
4
67%
 
Total votes : 6

Re: [2017-04-04] Hoffenheim vs Bayern Munich

Postby Coman » Wed Apr 05, 2017 9:19 am

MUTU wrote:Things are going to get nasty...

Player Ratings


Ulreich : 5
Rafinha : 4
Martinez : 4
Hummels : 5
Alaba : 4
Alonso : 6
Sanches : 2
Vidal : 3
Robben : 4
Coman : 4
Lewandowski : 4
For good football : Neuer - Kimmich, Boateng, Hummels, Alaba - Vidal (Tolisso), Thiago (Tolisso) - Robben, Müller (James), James (Ribéry) - Lewandowski

For boring football : 4-3-3
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Re: [2017-04-04] Hoffenheim vs Bayern Munich

Postby MUTU » Wed Apr 05, 2017 9:40 am

The player ratings are so unfair.

If Baumann hadn't made 2 of his miracle saves and we'd won 2-1, the average player rating would have been much higher, despite the Bayern players having done exactly the same things. One should vote on performance rather than scoreline.

For example, I don't understand the flak Ulreich is getting. He made a couple of saves, one of which was exceptional. This prompted the following on the chat:

[20:09:32] <FCBayernMunchen> Sven Neuer
[20:09:35] <MUTU> ULREICH! who the f**k is Neuer? :P
[20:09:46] <Ollio> !!
[20:09:57] <FCBayernMunchen> I was sure that was in

The shot he let in was savable, but it was by no means an easy save. Neuer has let faaaaaar easier saves through. We're talking about a keeper missing match practice trying to fill in the boots of (one of) the greatest goalkeeper(s) of all time. Let's not scapegoat him.
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Re: [2017-04-04] Hoffenheim vs Bayern Munich

Postby Coman » Wed Apr 05, 2017 10:13 am

That's why I gave Ulreich the second best rate.
For good football : Neuer - Kimmich, Boateng, Hummels, Alaba - Vidal (Tolisso), Thiago (Tolisso) - Robben, Müller (James), James (Ribéry) - Lewandowski

For boring football : 4-3-3
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Re: [2017-04-04] Hoffenheim vs Bayern Munich

Postby Ollio » Wed Apr 05, 2017 10:33 am

MUTU wrote:The player ratings are so unfair.

If Baumann hadn't made 2 of his miracle saves and we'd won 2-1, the average player rating would have been much higher, despite the Bayern players having done exactly the same things. One should vote on performance rather than scoreline.

For example, I don't understand the flak Ulreich is getting. He made a couple of saves, one of which was exceptional. This prompted the following on the chat:

[20:09:32] <FCBayernMunchen> Sven Neuer
[20:09:35] <MUTU> ULREICH! who the f**k is Neuer? :P
[20:09:46] <Ollio> !!
[20:09:57] <FCBayernMunchen> I was sure that was in

The shot he let in was savable, but it was by no means an easy save. Neuer has let faaaaaar easier saves through. We're talking about a keeper missing match practice trying to fill in the boots of (one of) the greatest goalkeeper(s) of all time. Let's not scapegoat him.


And if I recall correctly, he did something similiar the last time Neuer was given rest? He's a great keeper, just hasn't been on the pitch for months. He's confident in goal and I feel confident having him in goal. Wouldn't mind him playing more.

Great play from Hoffenheim. I hope more of the Bundesliga will go in the same direction, for the neutrals. Of course I hate to lose, but nice to see teams actually playing against us. If this goes on, next year will be interesting.

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Re: [2017-04-04] Hoffenheim vs Bayern Munich

Postby Achilles » Wed Apr 05, 2017 10:38 am

MUTU wrote:The player ratings are so unfair.
If Baumann hadn't made 2 of his miracle saves and we'd won 2-1, the average player rating would have been much higher, despite the Bayern players having done exactly the same things. One should vote on performance rather than scoreline.
For example, I don't understand the flak Ulreich is getting. He made a couple of saves, one of which was exceptional. This prompted the following on the chat:

Absolutely, most of the users here just watch the scoreline, where was that horrible performance yesterday exactly? against a quality team,with high motivation and we made a rotation. I don't understand, the Bayern of the second half dominated the game quite perfectly, we just didn't seize the opportunities to score or to put it better, Baumann showed his class, it happens. Indeed in the first half we were shaky, the midfield was very bad but Hoffenheim also played fantastic. Overall Bayern was the better team, classic chances were missed.

Ulreich is a bad GK IMO but yesterday was decent, the goal conceded from Kramaric was completely normal, great shot! There is no need to ask from your second choice GK to save shots like these... He just to play decent, not make mistakes and save the normal shots, I have no demand to make miracle saves or build up our play.
I wonder sometimes what is going on in the heads of some fans :roll:
Do we really expect to win the league unbeaten with a +80 goal difference? Many comments here especially in 1st half of the season gives you this idea...
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Re: [2017-04-04] Hoffenheim vs Bayern Munich

Postby ramsej84 » Wed Apr 05, 2017 1:23 pm

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U l-Kotra għanniet f’daqqa – u semmgħet ma’ l-irjieħ
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Re: [2017-04-04] Hoffenheim vs Bayern Munich

Postby Manchu » Thu Apr 06, 2017 12:08 am

Dumbledore7 wrote:Well if 99% of football statistics suck, how could they mean something? :P

A statistic is a number that contains information. It isn't right or wrong(unless someone made an error collecting it). Useful information can be deprived from a statistic, but the problem is when people presume a statistic means something it doesn't. For example, many determine who they think is the best player by how many goals they score(this leads to the cult of Messi and CR7), when "the number of goals scored" doesn't mean that and isn't intended to mean that, as forwards can contribute in many other ways to the success of their teams.

Moreover, almost all statistics nowadays are for when players have possession of the ball. Given that players spend 97% of their time without the ball, this is inherently flawed. Eventually, the recording of the positions and actions of players when they don't have the ball will begin, and the situation will vastly improve.
In any case, I'm sorry but nothing will convince me statistics will ever be a good measure of players. At most, It's used by people like us, if not journalists and analysts who love to talk about football, which for the most part is fine. Even if they are to be used as indicator, it's superficial. It waters down a sport played with a combination of legs, brains and coaching to individual digestible numbers. It's intrinsically flawed. Comparing players in different teams, for example. They don't play the same opponents or with the same players. They have different coaches, with different tactics and different ideas of how the roles of players in a given position should be. Hell even two centrebacks in the same team are likely to be given different instructions. Too many independent variables to do a controlled measurement. I doubt we would ever have any real use for them, apart from being online talking points.

I will say that a set of statistical data can be used as a nice summary of a match, it's good for evaluating one performance, case-by-case. A high number of interceptions a player made is indicative of his involvement, yes. A heat map can indicate which players were weaker. But an elite coach will never look at statistics when deciding on which players to buy or play, clubs send scouts for that very reason. Nor would an elite coach look at an excellent statistical performance from the last game and employ the exact same tactics for his next. Statistics can be refined, but will never win over judgment. If I've watched a player multiple times and formed an opinion on him, statistics won't change whatever I think of that player.

Post-match analyses, yes. Individual assessment of a player's performance, sure. Comparison of players, no. Measurement of a player's intrinsic mental and technical abilities, no. Decision-making, absolutely not.

I generally abhor most uses of statistics as comparative ratings between players, for the reasons noted above: currently, the selection of statistics sucks, and it's impossible to put them together in a way that accurately measures a player. Whoscored ratings are the differentiation of the misuse of statistics.

In fact, the only present day player-rating statistic I like is goalimpact, which works based off of the goal-differential's of thousands of games. It's not without its flaws, but it gives a good comparative picture of players. I can't watch even as many games of Bayern Munich as I would like, much less the hundreds I would need to do in order to figure out, through the "eye-test," who the best players on the world are, but goalimpact gives a good idea so that I can watch a lot of videos and matches of specific highly rated players in order to figure out why they are good. One of my favorite strategies is watching the highlight videos of another player and paying a lot of attention to what the player I'm actually interested in is doing without the ball. To provide an example, a lot of people seem to have only realized that Muller does a really important job in distracting the defense and drawing them out of position in order to allow Lewandowski to score this season when Lewandowski was struggling alone upfront, but, if you watch this video for Muller, it's evident within five minutes.

You have to understand is that the "eye test," the idea that you can know how good a player is by watching them play a lot, that so many people support isn't necessarily good either. It told people that Marko Marin was the next Messi while Muller was crap. The essential problem is that people generally only watch the player with the ball. Subtle things done without the ball that help the team greatly get unnoticed.

Until about a year ago, I thought that Muller was a good player but not great. Then I found goalimpact for the first time and saw Muller was on top of the list for the world's best players and rated better than Messi. That blew my mind and I could hardly entertain the possibility, but I launched into extensive research into Muller's style of play and kept going until I had cracked open the secret to why someone doesn't play that impressively is so good. The crucial breakthrough was when I realized that I had to watch Muller without the ball instead of him with it. Thus, I think that the right statistics can be

With all of that said, now I should focus on the broader value of statistics beyond comparative player ratings.

Let's say Bayern Munich want to sign an unknown(and hence cheap) target striker in order to allow for more scoring for crosses. Statistics at the present aren't very good, but it's perfectly possible to use them to help narrow the search.
A good target striker scores a lot goals off of crosses compared to the number of crosses put into the box. Thus Bayern can examine the statistical data from multiple leagues and find players who do this, and make a list of targets to scout.

Moreover, the best target forwards(like El Chicharito) generally do this because they have strong positional sense that allow them to lose defenders at crucial moments in the box. Bayern doesn't want someone who wins and scores a lot of headers through physical supremacy because the forward is unlikely to be able to do this against top-tier teams with tall, strong center-backs. Thus, Bayern removes all center forwards from the list who win a lot contested aerials in the box. Now they have a shorter list of players to scout, and don't need to buy an established, expensive players or hope their scouts get lucky.

That was with the limited statistics collected today. For the future, one of things that I've noticed that distinguishes the best forwards is their ability to stay in the blind spots of defenders at crucial moments. It's perfectly possible, with the right computing power and methodology, to collect that statistic, and it could be very useful for identifying the best players.

I would like to finish on a comment about Kingsley Coman, of all people, that relates to my modified form of the "eye-test." I've been distinctively unenthusiastic about him for a while, and just randomly ran into last night a 5 second moment in a video encapsulates why.

Notice where Coman runs and how little he accomplishes. If he curves his run behind the defender and into the defender's blindspot, it's almost impossible to defend and he has a 1v1 with the keeper if Lewandowski can play a good pass, but he instead runs directly forward with no thought. Lewandowski would run behind the defender. Ronaldo Fenomeno would have run behind the defender. Muller would have run behind the defender. This is why it is so important to watch what players do when they don't have the ball.
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Re: [2017-04-04] Hoffenheim vs Bayern Munich

Postby Dumbledore7 » Thu Apr 06, 2017 11:51 am

Manchu wrote:A statistic is a number that contains information. It isn't right or wrong(unless someone made an error collecting it). Useful information can be deprived from a statistic, but the problem is when people presume a statistic means something it doesn't. For example, many determine who they think is the best player by how many goals they score(this leads to the cult of Messi and CR7), when "the number of goals scored" doesn't mean that and isn't intended to mean that, as forwards can contribute in many other ways to the success of their teams.

Moreover, almost all statistics nowadays are for when players have possession of the ball. Given that players spend 97% of their time without the ball, this is inherently flawed. Eventually, the recording of the positions and actions of players when they don't have the ball will begin, and the situation will vastly improve.

You're just paraphrasing what I said. Of course they're just factual numbers, my point is they don't mean anything. These are the very reasons I think they suck - they don't mean anything, i.e. they aren't useful. I have never used numbers to infer anything about any player because they just don't work.

Manchu wrote:You have to understand is that the "eye test," the idea that you can know how good a player is by watching them play a lot, that so many people support isn't necessarily good either. It told people that Marko Marin was the next Messi while Muller was crap. The essential problem is that people generally only watch the player with the ball. Subtle things done without the ball that help the team greatly get unnoticed.

Only to the people who are rubbish at watching football. The thing that told people that Marin was the next Messi are YouTube highlights, edited selectively that only the good moments on the ball get watched. My amateur scouting of exclusively fixing my eye on one player in 90 minutes, particularly midfielders, has worked wonders.

Manchu wrote:Until about a year ago, I thought that Muller was a good player but not great. Then I found goalimpact for the first time and saw Muller was on top of the list for the world's best players and rated better than Messi. That blew my mind and I could hardly entertain the possibility, but I launched into extensive research into Muller's style of play and kept going until I had cracked open the secret to why someone doesn't play that impressively is so good. The crucial breakthrough was when I realized that I had to watch Muller without the ball instead of him with it. Thus, I think that the right statistics can be

I'm sorry but the fact that Müller is more impactful off the ball than on the ball is as obvious as anything. He can't spend more than 5 seconds on the ball. That has been especially noticeable since 2014/15 when Pep decided to make him roam. Honestly this is one of the most widely-accepted fact in football and you wouldn't need goalimpact ratings to see that - there's a reason why the "Raumdeuter" moniker caught on. There's a forum member, quaazi (sadly not active anymore) who is outstanding at noticing these things. Used to post analyses right after a match with screenshots and he sure as hell did that without statistics.

Manchu wrote:Let's say Bayern Munich want to sign an unknown(and hence cheap) target striker in order to allow for more scoring for crosses. Statistics at the present aren't very good, but it's perfectly possible to use them to help narrow the search.
A good target striker scores a lot goals off of crosses compared to the number of crosses put into the box. Thus Bayern can examine the statistical data from multiple leagues and find players who do this, and make a list of targets to scout.

How do we prove beyond doubt that, in a case of low cross conversion, that it's not just bad crosses or extremely good defenders?

Manchu wrote:I would like to finish on a comment about Kingsley Coman, of all people, that relates to my modified form of the "eye-test." I've been distinctively unenthusiastic about him for a while, and just randomly ran into last night a 5 second moment in a video encapsulates why.

Notice where Coman runs and how little he accomplishes. If he curves his run behind the defender and into the defender's blindspot, it's almost impossible to defend and he has a 1v1 with the keeper if Lewandowski can play a good pass, but he instead runs directly forward with no thought. Lewandowski would run behind the defender. Ronaldo Fenomeno would have run behind the defender. Muller would have run behind the defender. This is why it is so important to watch what players do when they don't have the ball.

I know these things. Again one of the very things that I doubt computational statistics will ever catch on.

Actually now that I've finished reading your post, haven't you literally just explained further that statistics basically don't work because they can't judge a player off the ball? Statistics are a great tool, I use it nearly every day of my routine. But I think it has no place in football. They give people who don't watch football the false right to pretend they know something about a player they've never watched.
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Re: [2017-04-04] Hoffenheim vs Bayern Munich

Postby Manchu » Mon Apr 10, 2017 7:46 am

Dumbledore7 wrote:You're just paraphrasing what I said. Of course they're just factual numbers, my point is they don't mean anything. These are the very reasons I think they suck - they don't mean anything, i.e. they aren't useful. I have never used numbers to infer anything about any player because they just don't work.

I'm generally of the same mind as you in terms of using statistics to judge a player. Using the number of tackles or intercepts to judge a midfielder or defender is the definition of stupid, because passive defense is a thing. The only statistic that I give any validity to in judging a player is goalimpact, which is solely based on goal difference and thus includes everything a player brings to a team to help it succeed or not. However, I only use that as a measure to identify players to research further.

On the other hand, I still think that statistics can reveal useful things about styles of play and optimal tactics.

For example, it's been statistically known(back when most teams were style doing it) since the 80s that crossing the ball from close to the sideline is a very inefficient strategy, while crossing from inside the box or closer is drastically more effective.

I don't think he paid any attention to statistics, but Jupp knew this. He thus built his Bayern around forcing the defenders as centrally as possible through Robbery and Muller(three outside mids that play very centrally), opening up as much space on the outside as possible for the fullbacks to send in a very few, effective crosses from as close as possible to the goal(yes, I know Bayern had different methods of attack, but this was one of the most effective of them). His team won the Trebble.

Pep did not know this. He thus built his 2015-16 team around pumping cross after cross from traditionally wingers on the flank in a relatively inefficient manner. His team crashed out in the semi-finals of the Champions League.

If Pep had a better knowledge of statistics or averages to make up for his great tactical naivety, Bayern might have won the Champions league at least once when he here.

Moreover, here's an articlewhich touches on both the follies of applying "traditional" statistics, and the advantages of applying "scientific statistics to basketball. Football is a much more complex and chaotic game with a smaller sample size than basketball, so we'll probably never see statistics applied to that degree, but the article is still interesting.
Only to the people who are rubbish at watching football. The thing that told people that Marin was the next Messi are YouTube highlights, edited selectively that only the good moments on the ball get watched. My amateur scouting of exclusively fixing my eye on one player in 90 minutes, particularly midfielders, has worked wonders.


That's the exact right way to do things. Unfortunately, I don't think that most people do it. In fact, in my opinion, most people are absolutely terrible at watching football. This leads to ideas like "CR7 is the best player in the world."

In fact, when I was a youth player, only one of my couches was ever both good at tactics and watching football.

I'm sorry but the fact that Müller is more impactful off the ball than on the ball is as obvious as anything. He can't spend more than 5 seconds on the ball. That has been especially noticeable since 2014/15 when Pep decided to make him roam. Honestly this is one of the most widely-accepted fact in football and you wouldn't need goalimpact ratings to see that - there's a reason why the "Raumdeuter" moniker caught on. There's a forum member, quaazi (sadly not active anymore) who is outstanding at noticing these things. Used to post analyses right after a match with screenshots and he sure as hell did that without statistics.

You're right(although I think too many people only think of Muller as a good goal poacher.). A lot of people noticed it before I did. You have to understand, until about a year ago, I paid very little attention to professional football outside the World Cup. When I did, I wasn't watching for the right things. The Muller experience helped me learn what I should pay attention to.

Moreover, what I use goalimpact is an indication of which players I should scout. That is what my example was. That's also how I found about Brandt and started watching him and how I realized that Paulo Dybula is highly overhyped(I can never forget watching a 10 minute highlight video of him and realizing that the creators had stuck every single example of him being effective across multiple seasons in the first five minutes.)

It's a useful tool because, again, I can't watch everyone to the required level of attention.

I'm curious, what exactly do you think of Mario Gotze's ball distribution? He has a very unusual goalimpact graph in that he continued to improve constantly during his time at Bayern despite everyone thinking he was a flop. Nearly all other major flops who started out promising (Torres, Mario Balotelli, Freddy Adu) have rapidly decreasing goalimpacts and clearly fail to live up their potential, but Gotze seems quite unusual, despite having relatively few goals and assists. I watched a lot of his play, and I think what is going on is that he has very good ball distribution in the attack, but I'm not sure.
How do we prove beyond doubt that, in a case of low cross conversion, that it's not just bad crosses or extremely good defenders?

We can't. We can't prove anything beyond doubt, and we don't want to. We're trying to identify as set of players that we should scout, not make decisions just based off of statistics. By using the criteria that I selected, we're going to miss some talented players who are the victims of bad crosses and get some players that are the beneficiaries of good crosses. However, actual skilled target forwards are more likely to be included on our list, and are thus more likely to be scouted, and hopefully we can find one. In any case, it's better than sending scouts to random games and hope that we get lucky.
I know these things. Again one of the very things that I doubt computational statistics will ever catch on.

Actually now that I've finished reading your post, haven't you literally just explained further that statistics basically don't work because they can't judge a player off the ball? Statistics are a great tool, I use it nearly every day of my routine. But I think it has no place in football. They give people who don't watch football the false right to pretend they know something about a player they've never watched.

I agree with your last sentence, but statistics don't have no place in football. They just need to used in a careful, controlled manner that acknowledges their weaknesses.

For example, I just ran a calculation tonight and found that Bayern Munich conceded many more goals and scored many fewer goals when Xabi Alonso is on the field than when he isn't, both home and away. The difference is so large(literally a difference in gd of 80 goals per season) that it almost certainly isn't coincidental despite the fact that Xabi sometimes plays against tougher opponents(in the Bundesliga, Bayern have conceded a goal every 140 minutes when Xabi Alonso plays and a goal every 278 minutes when Xabi Alonso doesn't play), but the issue still needs to be approached carefully. I won't advocate benching XA until I understand what's going on. My suspicion is that Thiago is better at deep defense than XA while Muller is better at counterpressing than Thiago.
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Re: [2017-04-04] Hoffenheim vs Bayern Munich

Postby Dumbledore7 » Mon Apr 10, 2017 11:13 am

This is a good discussion, let's move to The Statistics Thread where I'll reply to your post.

general-bayern-f13/team-statistics-t15514.html
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