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[2015-10-04] Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund

Discussions on the German Bundesliga matches.
 

What is your prediction for this match?

Poll ended at Sun Oct 04, 2015 4:30 pm

Bayern Munich will win
8
73%
It will end in a draw
0
No votes
Borussia Dortmund will win
3
27%
 
Total votes : 11

Re: [2015-10-04] Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund

Postby RedQueen » Mon Oct 05, 2015 11:01 am

FCBayernMunchen wrote: Those who believe he is a genius who will find the right solution most of the time (mistakes have been made as we all know), and those who believe he is too stubborn and insists on not changing anything.

I think "not changing anything" is over the top. More like changing too little too late.
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Re: [2015-10-04] Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund

Postby bastos80 » Mon Oct 05, 2015 11:02 am

Bentonomo wrote:OMG i love Javi :oops: he is such a monster.

So bayern is finally beating top of the league teams and at the same time guardiola is adapting and changing, is it a coincidence ?


I think it is a mix between the right players being in top-form, us not being reliant on Robbery anymore and what you said.
We're really unpredictable right now. Counter attacks, long & short passes and dominance. Everything is working at the moment.
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Re: [2015-10-04] Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund

Postby quaazi » Mon Oct 05, 2015 11:14 am

Okay. Since RedQueen insists requests that she be made a fool of, let's delve into the statistics. Let's check all the long ball stats of Guardiola teams: accurate long balls per game and inaccurate long balls per game (per game so that we get a clearer picture that isn't skewered by a high seasonal possession ratio).

In this season so far, we've had third-most accurate long balls (37,9) with the least inaccurate long balls (19,1) in the league.
In the previous season, we had second-most accurate long balls (41,4) with the least inaccurate long balls (23,9) in the league (fun fact - apart from us, Wolfsburg and Gladbach, no team completed more accurate long passes than missing them. Needless to say, our ratio was the best).
In the first Guardiola season with us, we completed the MOST accurate long balls (59,5) with the least inaccurate long balls (19,1) in the league.
For comparison, in the treble season we also completed the most accurate long balls (54,5) with the least inaccurate long balls (19,8) in the league.

Now, going to Pep's Barca.
In his last season in charge, they had the third most accurate long balls (40,1) with the least inaccurate long balls (13,8) in the league.
In 2011-11, they had the joint-second most accurate long balls (41) with the least inaccurate long balls (13,8) in the league.
In 2009-10, they had the MOST accurate long balls (43,2) with the least inaccurate long balls (17,1) in the league.
And unfortunately whoscored.com didn't keep data back in 2008-09. I feel like they probably were higher taking into account the pace of Eto'o and Henry as well as Ibrahimovic' aerial prowess, but that's just conjecture.

So that's the "parallel universe" you were talking about. Barcelona not only played more accurate long balls than so far (the admittedly low sample size of) this season, they were also far more better at it, missing a lot less of them. So that's Fool Point no. 1.

Then we come to him "adapting" to the team. Or that somehow he came here all tikkers-takkers and only now has been forced to play The Jupp Way(TM). More bullshit. His first season was the most prone to playing it long, in fact more so than the treble season! Ever since our tendency has actually been declining towards a median that is not far off from his Barca days. There are many conclusions to be made here, but some of the more important ones are that 1) He tried it the Jupp way and it didn't work. In fact it was the major reason for our 4-0 defeat against Real (In fact Kroos, Dante and Boateng attempted more long passes in that game than any Real outfield player);

and 2) this supposed adapting to the German style or the players that we have actually more and more resembles what he tried to do at Barcelona, or in plain English, the players are adapting to him, not the other way round.

And finally, let's look at the idea that this was Pep's first time using long balls to defeat Dortmund (suggested by someone else here). Here are the long ball stats for all the Dortmund games under Guardiola.
04.10.2015 - 64 long passes (won)
28.04.2015 - 106 long passes (lost on penalties, extra time skewering the number)
04.04.2015 - 89 long passes (won)
01.11.2014 - 66 long passes (won, one of the rare games where Dortmund attempted more long passes than us)
13.08.2014 - 80 long passes (lost)
17.05.2014 - 89 long passes (win in extra time, skewerd the number)
12.04.2014 - 76 long passes (lost)
23.11.2013 - 108 long passes (won)
27.07.2013 - no data available (lost)

And, for completions sake,
25.05.2013 - 70 long passes (won)

So, basically, yesterday was the least long passes we've played against Dortmund under Guardiola. Again, the supposed narrative of him "going the German way" simply doesn't work. Unfortunately there's no further pattern to be extracted from that row of games - there seems to be no correlation between playing a lot of long passes and winning v Dortmund.

Anyway, people, please, please think about the statements in bold really hard before letting loose another conversation about how Lucien Favre or whoever could bring back the "German mentality" (lel dude's swiss, like Hitzfeld) or how Guardiola is "destroying" the team or whatever shit goal.com or Loddar (why not both!) has put in your mind this week. Try to understand that never in the history of our club have we been performing this well consistently, try to take some enjoyment out of the fact that we've completely hit our golden years, as someone said on this forum a few days back. This idiotic bile that I'm faced with day after day (during a season in which we've won all of our competitive games so far no less!) is really making visiting this forum a very unpleasant experience.
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Re: [2015-10-04] Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund

Postby #12 » Mon Oct 05, 2015 12:01 pm

Few things...

1.) Are those percentages? Cause I don't know how someone play .1 of a ball...

2.) No one mentioned Jupp but You - I feel that success of Jupp still "stings" with some people...

3.) No one needs a "German way" either... Who said that?

4.) At least in my perception, long balls - and I've mentioned this before when talking about Alonso/successors - have become a style of play more so than ever before in THIS season... Maybe statistics proves me wrong, but never before have I seen so many buildups (Alonso-Costa against Leverkusen for example) through long balls... Also, Boateng became a great playmaker over the years, but mainly so because he was playing direct, hard passes on the ground... And I doubt those long balls your numbers indicate we played came from Boateng - it's also a long ball if you change attacking sides ;)
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Re: [2015-10-04] Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund

Postby quaazi » Mon Oct 05, 2015 12:11 pm

1.) No. "Per game" often entails with it the concept of decimals, because the amount of total passes is often indivisible by the amount of games played.

2.) Quite obvious in context of people being unhappy with Guardiola.

3.) see point no.2

4.) Irrelevant, incorrect, and/or a wee bit incomprehensible. I am not going to argue about your "perception" - you're free to see games whatever way you want - but if you start to claim what you subjectively see as fact despite it going against all possible statistics, then I'll be entitled to call you names. That's how waving our dicks works, I guess. And I have no idea what you're on about with Boateng nor how it relates to what we're talking about.
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Re: [2015-10-04] Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund

Postby #12 » Mon Oct 05, 2015 12:28 pm

Ok...

Well - I meant that long balls can still have a more than one purpose, being executed in different ways... And I was particularly talking about them being a way to build up penetration... That's where my perception still COULD(doesn't have to though...) be right...
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Re: [2015-10-04] Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund

Postby Bentonomo » Mon Oct 05, 2015 3:51 pm

Long balls seem to have more impact on our game now...
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Re: [2015-10-04] Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund

Postby PunkCapitalist » Mon Oct 05, 2015 4:42 pm

Any body saw the ratings for this game in whoscored? Ridiculously low! Only Boateng and Müller made it to their bundesliga team of the week while half of Ingolstadt features. It seems like we just barely scrapped past a lower half of the table team while they put 5 past the 2nd team in the league (which was undefeated)... Wtf?

It clearly illustrated that statistical approaches to football leave a lot to be desired.
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Re: [2015-10-04] Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund

Postby Danada19 » Mon Oct 05, 2015 7:32 pm

I don't know how anyone here is angry or arguing over anything. Take it in and enjoy it for a few days. Bayern just beat BVB 5-1. That is a beautiful sight to see. When the coach is on a win streak like this there probably isn't too much reason to argue over what he is or isn't doing because it's working very well. Enjoy it for a little while.


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Re: [2015-10-04] Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund

Postby nm462272 » Mon Oct 05, 2015 7:39 pm

Danada19 wrote:I don't know how anyone here is angry or arguing over anything. Take it in and enjoy it for a few days. Bayern just beat BVB 5-1. That is a beautiful sight to see. When the coach is on a win streak like this there probably isn't too much reason to argue over what he is or isn't doing because it's working very well. Enjoy it for a little while.


There are people who:

1) Will always dislike Pep, no matter what
2) Will admit Pep has done something positive now, but will remind others about things he's done wrong in the past
3) Will always love Pep, no matter what

and most of all

4) People who are sick of hearing the other three beat their viewpoint into the ground in every thread
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Re: [2015-10-04] Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund

Postby RedQueen » Mon Oct 05, 2015 9:02 pm

Jesus, quaazi. How many hours did you spend on that? Rattling numbers off without putting them into context is the worst use of stats imaginable. With greetings from a statistician. Try watching the games for what long balls are played and how/for what purpose they are played, and then maybe you'll see why not only me but most pundits see a change in his approach as compared to how we played two years ago and to how his Barca played. And I don't even know why you're addressing me with that gibberish about "adopting the German style", or Jupp, let alone "Loddar" etc.

I'm in no mood to respond to your text-and-numbers-wall in detail; my mother suffered a stroke today and I only returned from the hospital two hours ago. Will be out for some time having more pressing matter to attend to. And "thanks" for your needlessly condescending tone; you're welcome to my ignore list again.
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Re: [2015-10-04] Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund

Postby Fizz » Mon Oct 05, 2015 9:08 pm

Lets just be happy that Munich won their match against Dortmund and move on from it. We got fantastic players and a coach so no reason for us Munich fans to moan about. I'm sorry to hear about you're mum having a stroke RedQueen. Hope she gets better soon.
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Re: [2015-10-04] Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund

Postby Dumbledore7 » Mon Oct 05, 2015 9:44 pm

RedQueen wrote:Jesus, quaazi. How many hours did you spend on that? Rattling numbers off without putting them into context is the worst use of stats imaginable. With greetings from a statistician. Try watching the games for what long balls are played and how/for what purpose they are played, and then maybe you'll see why not only me but most pundits see a change in his approach as compared to how we played two years ago and to how his Barca played. And I don't even know why you're addressing me with that gibberish about "adopting the German style", or Jupp, let alone "Loddar" etc.

I'm in no mood to respond to your text-and-numbers-wall in detail; my mother suffered a stroke today and I only returned from the hospital two hours ago. Will be out for some time having more pressing matter to attend to. And "thanks" for your needlessly condescending tone; you're welcome to my ignore list again.


Disagreements aside, I'm sorry to hear about your mother and hope she gets better sooner than later with as little suffering as possible in the process.
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Re: [2015-10-04] Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund

Postby quaazi » Mon Oct 05, 2015 9:44 pm

RedQueen wrote:And "thanks" for your needlessly condescending tone; you're welcome to my ignore list again.

Dumb folk deserve to be condescended to, y'know.
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Re: [2015-10-04] Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund

Postby quaazi » Mon Oct 05, 2015 9:49 pm

PunkCapitalist wrote:Any body saw the ratings for this game in whoscored? Ridiculously low! Only Boateng and Müller made it to their bundesliga team of the week while half of Ingolstadt features. It seems like we just barely scrapped past a lower half of the table team while they put 5 past the 2nd team in the league (which was undefeated)... Wtf?

It clearly illustrated that statistical approaches to football leave a lot to be desired.

In all fairness, after featuring their statistics in a post of mine, I would agree. Then again, I would say that "ratings" for a player in merely one match are completely unnecessary in the first place. Football tactics are overemphasized over football strategy.
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