You are not logged in or registered. Please login or register to use the full functionality of BayernForum.com

2017/2018 Bundesliga Generic Discussion Thread

Discussions on the German Bundesliga matches.
 

Re: 2017/2018 Bundesliga Generic Discussion Thread

Postby MUTU » Sun Jan 21, 2018 8:26 am

Manchu wrote:
ramsej84 wrote:HSV this time won't make it....

Their stopwatch will soon stops

Sent from my HUAWEI VNS-L31 using Tapatalk

Can't see tweet? Click here!
Hopefully.
For some reason though seems like Koeln has a higher percentage for 18th place. Don't understand why.
30GB free cloud storage. Click here for the referral.
User avatar
MUTU
Site Admin & EURO 2016 Prediction Game Winner
Site Admin & EURO 2016 Prediction Game Winner
 
Years of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membership
 
Posts: 34047
Joined: Mon Aug 14, 2006 11:00 pm
Location: L-Imqabba, Malta
National Flag:
Malta
Has thanked: 6127 times
Been thanked: 9246 times
Gender: Male
BayernForum.com fan club: Active member
BayernForum.com donator: Yes

Re: 2017/2018 Bundesliga Generic Discussion Thread

Postby Isabella » Sun Jan 21, 2018 8:59 am

MUTU wrote:
Manchu wrote:
ramsej84 wrote:HSV this time won't make it....

Their stopwatch will soon stops

Sent from my HUAWEI VNS-L31 using Tapatalk

Can't see tweet? Click here!
Hopefully.
For some reason though seems like Koeln has a higher percentage for 18th place. Don't understand why.

You are serious? Maybe Köln sucked all the hinrunde and until last match of hinrunde (aka their first victory of the season) they looked already comdamned? That is a statistic and Köln’s chance are already becoming much better.

Last week were that Can't see tweet? Click here!, before the restart of Bundesliga like that Can't see tweet? Click here! before the winter pause that Can't see tweet? Click here! and the week before looked like that Can't see tweet? Click here!. Can you see the trend? If they continue like that next week Köln will have a lower percentage than HSV
User avatar
Isabella
Yeah, now I'm talking!
 
Years of membership
 
Posts: 286
Joined: Sat Feb 18, 2017 5:26 pm
National Flag:
Italy
Has thanked: 6 times
Been thanked: 62 times
Gender: Female

Re: 2017/2018 Bundesliga Generic Discussion Thread

Postby MUTU » Sun Jan 21, 2018 9:09 am

^ Yes, I'm serious. But you misunderstood me. According to Goalimpact, Hamburger SV has the highest expected rank, the lowest Goalimpact score and the lowest expected points. Yet, they are given a 38.4% chance of finishing in 18th place while Koeln are given a 38.9% chance. How is it possible that HSV are expected to finish last and finish in 17th place at the same time?
30GB free cloud storage. Click here for the referral.
User avatar
MUTU
Site Admin & EURO 2016 Prediction Game Winner
Site Admin & EURO 2016 Prediction Game Winner
 
Years of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membership
 
Posts: 34047
Joined: Mon Aug 14, 2006 11:00 pm
Location: L-Imqabba, Malta
National Flag:
Malta
Has thanked: 6127 times
Been thanked: 9246 times
Gender: Male
BayernForum.com fan club: Active member
BayernForum.com donator: Yes

Re: 2017/2018 Bundesliga Generic Discussion Thread

Postby Manchu » Sun Jan 21, 2018 9:10 am

MUTU wrote:
Manchu wrote:
ramsej84 wrote:HSV this time won't make it....

Their stopwatch will soon stops

Sent from my HUAWEI VNS-L31 using Tapatalk

Can't see tweet? Click here!
Hopefully.
For some reason though seems like Koeln has a higher percentage for 18th place. Don't understand why.

Well, if you look closely, Koeln have a higher chance of avoiding direct relegation, more expected points, and a higher expected league ranking(although the gap is really small), which is why they are ranked higher than Hamburg.

As for why they also have a slightly larger chance of finishing last, I think it's because they have fewer points at the moment yet a (much) better team. This effectively means that random probability has a stronger effect on Koeln because they are more likely to have things go well but on the other hand don't have quite the small stored reserve Hamburg has in case luck goes against them and things go poorly.

Finally, as a side note, Mario Gomez's arrival seems to have lifted Stuttgart's goalimpact significantly(plus about 4 or 5 points) to the extent that they theoretically should be able to play against Leverkusen and Schalke on equal terms.
User avatar
Manchu
I'm a chatterbox!
 
Years of membership
 
Posts: 546
Joined: Wed Mar 15, 2017 6:34 am
Has thanked: 287 times
Been thanked: 371 times
Gender: Male

Re: 2017/2018 Bundesliga Generic Discussion Thread

Postby Isabella » Sun Jan 21, 2018 9:23 am

MUTU wrote:^ Yes, I'm serious. But you misunderstood me. According to Goalimpact, Hamburger SV has the highest expected rank, the lowest Goalimpact score and the lowest expected points. Yet, they are given a 38.4% chance of finishing in 18th place while Koeln are given a 38.9% chance. How is it possible that HSV are expected to finish last and finish in 17th place at the same time?

Because Köln is just resurrecting from a very bad hinrunde and has already closed the gap but has still less points so the numbers are still against them (and they have almost the same expected points). Another loss of HSV and win of Köln and the gap will become higher
User avatar
Isabella
Yeah, now I'm talking!
 
Years of membership
 
Posts: 286
Joined: Sat Feb 18, 2017 5:26 pm
National Flag:
Italy
Has thanked: 6 times
Been thanked: 62 times
Gender: Female

Re: 2017/2018 Bundesliga Generic Discussion Thread

Postby Manchu » Sun Jan 21, 2018 9:51 am

MUTU wrote:^ Yes, I'm serious. But you misunderstood me. According to Goalimpact, Hamburger SV has the highest expected rank, the lowest Goalimpact score and the lowest expected points. Yet, they are given a 38.4% chance of finishing in 18th place while Koeln are given a 38.9% chance. How is it possible that HSV are expected to finish last and finish in 17th place at the same time?

They are shown as last because they have a slightly lower expected rank(16.7 vs 16.6). The chart isn't ordered based on the single most likely place of a team but instead on expected rank. Expected rank is a weighted average of the ranks that a team could achieve. For example, a team with a 33% chance of finishing first, a 33% chance of finishing second, and a 33% chance of finishing third would have an expected rank of
(1/3)*1+(1/3)*2+(1/3)*3=2

Similarly, a team with 40% chance of finishing first, a 30% chance of finishing second, a 20% chance of finishing third, and a 10% of finishing fourth would have an expected rank of 0.4*1+0.3*2+0.2*3+0.1*4=2.

As I said before, due to the unusual situation that Koeln and Hamburg are in(with Hamburger having more points while Koeln has a much better team), it is slightly more likely that Koeln will finish in 18th place, yet Koeln still has a higher expected rank because it is significantly more likely that they will finish in 16th, 15th or 14th place.
User avatar
Manchu
I'm a chatterbox!
 
Years of membership
 
Posts: 546
Joined: Wed Mar 15, 2017 6:34 am
Has thanked: 287 times
Been thanked: 371 times
Gender: Male

Re: 2017/2018 Bundesliga Generic Discussion Thread

Postby #12 » Sun Jan 21, 2018 11:38 am

They‘ll appoint a new coach and will save their sorry asses yet again :-/
JUPPJUPPJUPPJUPPJUPPJUPPJUPPJUPPJUPPJUPPJUPPJUPPJUPPJUPPJUPP
User avatar
#12
I tattooed BayernForum.com on my ass
 
Years of membershipYears of membership
 
Posts: 10702
Joined: Sat May 16, 2015 1:31 pm
National Flag:
Germany
Has thanked: 415 times
Been thanked: 2770 times
Gender: Male

Re: 2017/2018 Bundesliga Generic Discussion Thread

Postby MaCk0y » Sun Jan 21, 2018 4:20 pm

If they appoint the saviour, they won't get relegated.
User avatar
MaCk0y
Assistant Admin
 
Years of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membership
 
Posts: 6061
Joined: Thu Jun 07, 2007 6:46 pm
Location: Malta
Has thanked: 1874 times
Been thanked: 1525 times
Gender: Male
BayernForum.com fan club: Active member
BayernForum.com donator: Yes

Re: 2017/2018 Bundesliga Generic Discussion Thread

Postby #12 » Sun Jan 21, 2018 4:43 pm

It’s Hollerbach...

Former player, coached Würzburg recently - lives nearby
JUPPJUPPJUPPJUPPJUPPJUPPJUPPJUPPJUPPJUPPJUPPJUPPJUPPJUPPJUPP
User avatar
#12
I tattooed BayernForum.com on my ass
 
Years of membershipYears of membership
 
Posts: 10702
Joined: Sat May 16, 2015 1:31 pm
National Flag:
Germany
Has thanked: 415 times
Been thanked: 2770 times
Gender: Male

Re: 2017/2018 Bundesliga Generic Discussion Thread

Postby ramsej84 » Sun Jan 21, 2018 8:08 pm

Plus 16 boyz and girlz

Sent from my HUAWEI VNS-L31 using Tapatalk
U l-Kotra qamet f’daqqa – u għajtet: “Jien Maltija!
Miskin min ikasbarni, - miskin min jidħak bija!”
U l-Kotra għanniet f’daqqa – u semmgħet ma’ l-irjieħ
L-Innu ta’ Malta tagħna, – u l-leħen kien rebbieħ,
User avatar
ramsej84
I tattooed BayernForum.com on my ass
 
Years of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membership
 
Posts: 29694
Joined: Fri Oct 29, 2010 10:47 pm
Location: Birkirkara - Malta
National Flag:
Malta
Has thanked: 23557 times
Been thanked: 6568 times
Gender: Male

Re: 2017/2018 Bundesliga Generic Discussion Thread

Postby YlonenXabi » Sun Jan 21, 2018 11:15 pm



BOOOOOOOOOOM !!
I TRUST IN ARJEN ROBBEN
User avatar
YlonenXabi
I live on BayernForum.com
 
Years of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membership
 
Posts: 9410
Joined: Sat Jun 06, 2009 1:53 am
Location: Sydney
National Flag:
Spain
Has thanked: 2056 times
Been thanked: 2124 times
Gender: Male
BayernForum.com fan club: Active member

Re: 2017/2018 Bundesliga Generic Discussion Thread

Postby America USA » Mon Jan 22, 2018 4:38 am

Excellent match day for Bayern, 16 Points clear at the top.

If Bayern win the next five fixtures - Hoff H, Mainz A, Schalke H, Wolfsburg A and Berlin H - we can easily afford to rest key players in the last ten games of the BL, before KO Cup games. That way we won’t have a Lewandowski type scenario like we did last year against Madrid.
User avatar
America USA
I post all the time
 
Years of membership
 
Posts: 1585
Joined: Fri Apr 21, 2017 9:15 pm
Has thanked: 250 times
Been thanked: 425 times

Re: 2017/2018 Bundesliga Generic Discussion Thread

Postby ramsej84 » Fri Jan 26, 2018 10:46 pm

Eintracht and Kovac keep impressing

Sent from my HUAWEI VNS-L31 using Tapatalk
U l-Kotra qamet f’daqqa – u għajtet: “Jien Maltija!
Miskin min ikasbarni, - miskin min jidħak bija!”
U l-Kotra għanniet f’daqqa – u semmgħet ma’ l-irjieħ
L-Innu ta’ Malta tagħna, – u l-leħen kien rebbieħ,
User avatar
ramsej84
I tattooed BayernForum.com on my ass
 
Years of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membership
 
Posts: 29694
Joined: Fri Oct 29, 2010 10:47 pm
Location: Birkirkara - Malta
National Flag:
Malta
Has thanked: 23557 times
Been thanked: 6568 times
Gender: Male

Re: 2017/2018 Bundesliga Generic Discussion Thread

Postby Roonzil » Sat Jan 27, 2018 11:13 am

ramsej84 wrote:Eintracht and Kovac keep impressing

Sent from my HUAWEI VNS-L31 using Tapatalk


Let's hope they don't end up in UCL or EL....because we all know what happens to unexpected impressive teams in Europe the next season. :(
She’s beauty, she’s grace, if u tell her she only watches football for the attractive players she’ll punch u in the face.

Total ho for Thiago :P
User avatar
Roonzil
I'm a post king!
 
Years of membershipYears of membership
 
Posts: 2614
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2016 10:54 pm
National Flag:
Netherlands
Has thanked: 269 times
Been thanked: 1512 times
Gender: Female

Re: 2017/2018 Bundesliga Generic Discussion Thread

Postby YlonenXabi » Sat Jan 27, 2018 12:35 pm

Impressive but lucky to win yesterdays match :)
I TRUST IN ARJEN ROBBEN
User avatar
YlonenXabi
I live on BayernForum.com
 
Years of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membershipYears of membership
 
Posts: 9410
Joined: Sat Jun 06, 2009 1:53 am
Location: Sydney
National Flag:
Spain
Has thanked: 2056 times
Been thanked: 2124 times
Gender: Male
BayernForum.com fan club: Active member

PreviousNext

Return to Bundesliga

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests